Is Europe heading for winter of discontent with extensive gas shortages?

[notsonice + 1,255]

53 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

You still dont understand its not about Ukraine. Its about creating new balance of power in Europe.

This week Europeans get informed USA is ready even to bomb Nord Stream to prolong conflict.

You have now a big mess in Europe because of high energy prices.

And article like this in Wall Street Jounal.

Common people are starting to see whats going on.

 

People are simply beginning to be very angry with the leaders of European countries driven more by American rather than European interests

Well, unless someone thinks Putin would really like that now Europeans have not found out how it all works now and how it will work in the winter.

Its about creating new balance of power in Europe.????

got it.... and the balance of power has shifted to NATO and away from Russia.....

No one is upset with how the Europeans and the US have come together to support Ukraine

high energy prices...... we all are dealing with it without resorting to having to draft everyone into the military.. we are willing to pay the price to insure Russia is defeated...... You really do not understand that the high energy cost is a small sacrifice for saving the people of Ukraine.

Who is angry with the US and European leaders....the only ones are Putin and of course the Russians who have died

When you make blanket BS statements you show that you are not capable of admitting that you have been defeated

 

Now go sign up and plug a hole in the line......Putin is calling you...he does not care if you are weak and incapable of fighting ...he just needs more cannon fodder

Victory to Ukraine and death to all those who support Putin and his ill-fated war

Edited September 28, 2022 by notsonice

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

2 hours ago, notsonice said:

Victory to Ukraine and death to all those who support Putin and his ill-fated war

 

Do not confuse thinking Russia will win with support for Russia.

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Its simply you as USA destroy both NS I and NS II. 

Can I ask for example Mr Jorgensen about on opinion?

Seems like fight for US hegemony until last european citizen

Curently Gazprom sells about 90 milion cubic meters per day not 400 milions.

But 8-10 times more expensive NG than normally.

Looks good for Gazprom.  

Nuland said Fuck the EU

Putin lets say simple agree with her now after 8 years.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 29, 2022 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

I see some European Union fans trying to take a victory lap on Brexit based on the performance of the Pound - I wonder if they’ve seen the Euro exchange rates lately? All bend the knee to the Dollar.

It’s unquestionably the case that while the overall power of the west is waning as a result of the Ukraine war, American predominance within the western bloc is skyrocketing. America is one of the winners in the short term.

Delay the disasterous effects of inflation by supplanting the currencies of all your allies. Genius!

Edited September 29, 2022 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Today Russia  is said to give ultimatum

Peace talk or 2 stage war next month

First stage. You destroy NS so we will finally destroy all critical infrastructure on Ukraine before Winter. Lets Say 10 milion new guest in Europe

Second stage tactical nuclear bomb

WEST TRIED TO BE CHAD SO VIRGIN RUSSIA BECAME BASED AFTER DESTROYING NS

Tit for tat. 

 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

5 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Its simply you as USA destroy both NS I and NS II. 

And you know this to be true how? Just because of basic economics? Too easy Tomasz!

It seems like Russia has a lot to gain also politically

[NickW + 2,714]

17 hours ago, Tomasz said:

You still dont understand its not about Ukraine. Its about creating new balance of power in Europe.

This week Europeans get informed USA is ready even to bomb Nord Stream to prolong conflict.

You have now a big mess in Europe because of high energy prices.

And article like this in Wall Street Jounal.

Common people are starting to see whats going on.

 

People are simply beginning to be very angry with the leaders of European countries driven more by American rather than European interests

Well, unless someone thinks Putin would really like that now Europeans have not found out how it all works now and how it will work in the winter.

I'm doubtful 

B4 this it was effectively looking like $20bn worth of scrpa on the bottom of the Baltic. On the balance of probabilities I suspect this was Putin and a way of saying this could happen to other pipelines. 

[NickW + 2,714]

15 minutes ago, Wombat One said:

Nup. Australia has heaps of aluminium, nickel, and wheat.

These trolls seem to overlook the fact that two western aligned nations are brimming with commodities (the other one being Canada) 

[NickW + 2,714]

37 minutes ago, Wombat One said:

3 allies Nick! USA, Australia, and Canada. But even then, there is Qatar, Kazhakstan etc, plus Israel and Egypt, got all the oil and gas the UK and Europe could ever need plus every other mineral of benefit. These Russian trolls think that being the cheapest sluts makes them the most valuable little darlings on the planet?

 

They only cornered the Nickel market by fooking their own environment. 

[Boat + 1,324]

Joe Blogs of YouTube fame claims the EU storage for nat gas is at 88% of normal capacity or typical levels. It appears a lot of the drama is just that? 

[Hotone + 412]

On 9/29/2022 at 8:39 PM, NickW said:

I'm doubtful 

B4 this it was effectively looking like $20bn worth of scrpa on the bottom of the Baltic. On the balance of probabilities I suspect this was Putin and a way of saying this could happen to other pipelines. 

Nah.  America did it.  Listen to Tucker Carlson and Joe Biden

https://youtu.be/AJ994JuQ0Gk

Edited October 2, 2022 by Hotone

[Jeroen Goudswaard + 61]

On 9/14/2022 at 11:12 AM, notsonice said:

Main issue is that electrolyzers cannot run as "on-off" switches if and when additional power is available????

where did you come up with this?

you ramp them up and down within minutes unlike a coal fired power plant....

 

I have worked with electolytic cells on an industrial basis for the past 25 years and yes not a problem with ramping up to full power from dead off within 15 minutes......you do step up power on a gradual basis over 15 minutes so you do not overwelm the power supply/electronics used in delivering power to the cells and the membranes and plates themselves. You do not flip the switch to full power from cold and you have to preheat cold electrolytic solutions up to 90 degrees celcius which is not a problem as you usual leave your tanks with a seperate heat circuit on at all times (you do not need heat in full production as the overpotential losses  results in the tanks maintaining 90 degrees by themselves) The power from renewables ramps up and down over time on a daily basis and is not an issue with ramp up ramp down.

 

As to the capital cost ...IE not using the electolysers 24/7 that is an issue as you will only get the cheap power off the grid usually at night or when with strong winds or with great sun. But anyone planning or using electorlytic cells to produce hydrogen are more than aware of the cyclical nature of cheap electricity. Same as building a solar farm. 

Hydrogen has to come with dedicated generation capacity, be it renewable or nuclear.???? is bullshit 

The 20MW Thyssenkrup electrolyzers ("tkUCE") that will be installed need at least 10% of max power at any time. Once it goes below it cycles and restarting will be a costly manual operation. This is not a small electrolytic cell. This is a large industrial device.

You clearly have no idea what you are talking about.

Edited October 3, 2022 by Jeroen Goudswaard

[NickW + 2,714]

8 hours ago, Jeroen Goudswaard said:

The 20MW Thyssenkrup electrolyzers ("tkUCE") that will be installed need at least 10% of max power at any time. Once it goes below it cycles and restarting will be a costly manual operation. This is not a small electrolytic cell. This is a large industrial device.

You clearly have no idea what you are talking about.

Thats Simple then. 2MW permanent supply and the other 18GW is variable at some specification ramp up / down rate?

[notsonice + 1,255]

9 hours ago, Jeroen Goudswaard said:

The 20MW Thyssenkrup electrolyzers ("tkUCE") that will be installed need at least 10% of max power at any time. Once it goes below it cycles and restarting will be a costly manual operation. This is not a small electrolytic cell. This is a large industrial device.

You clearly have no idea what you are talking about.

10 percent?? that is it???

Peanuts......as you should know industrial users of electric power have  to pay demand charges and pay rates on TOU schedules.....Cutting back use to less than 50 percent at peak TOU is typical for most big users of power IE they only run their equipment at full capacity when power is cheap.... this is a daily occurrence IE they scale back their use during the day. Do you realize why electric arc furnaces are typically run full capacity from 10 PM to 7 AM and during the day they scale back production???? Visit a foundry some day and you will see that during day shift they are doing maintenance and during the night shift they are melting.

 

clearly you have never worked in an industrial plant or refinery.

You really do not know what your are talking about.

 

10 percent power draw is peanuts to keep them online......This would be part of a negotiated power purchase agreement when you are talking 20 MW

Edited October 3, 2022 by notsonice

[Jeroen Goudswaard + 61]

On 10/3/2022 at 11:19 PM, NickW said:

Thats Simple then. 2MW permanent supply and the other 18GW is variable at some specification ramp up / down rate?

That is one option. But then it would be running at a loss. Also this factory has contracts to deliver minimum H2 to its clients.

[NickW + 2,714]

1 minute ago, Jeroen Goudswaard said:

That is one option. But then it would be running at a loss. Also this factory has contracts to deliver minimum H2 to its clients.

I would assume its run much like the desalination plant in Perth (oz) which is linked to some large wind farms. The Desal plant operates when wind conditions are favourable and stores some water to fill in the gaps when its not operating due to low winds or peak electricity demand times. I appreciate storing H2 is a bit more complex. 

I don't know about the economics of running electrolysers but assume there is some scope to take advantage of low electricity price periods in the same way pump storage / AL smelters do. For example electricity pool prices overnight in the Uk were 1/3rd of the price that they are today or yesterday daytime (mainly due to high wind output) 

[Jeroen Goudswaard + 61]

Just now, NickW said:

I would assume its run much like the desalination plant in Perth (oz) which is linked to some large wind farms. The Desal plant operates when wind conditions are favourable and stores some water to fill in the gaps when its not operating due to low winds or peak electricity demand times. I appreciate storing H2 is a bit more complex. 

I don't know about the economics of running electrolysers but assume there is some scope to take advantage of low electricity price periods in the same way pump storage / AL smelters do. For example electricity pool prices overnight in the Uk were 1/3rd of the price that they are today or yesterday daytime (mainly due to high wind output) 

Having your own wind farm means you are disconnected from energy price fluctuations (unless there is literally no wind, about 5% of the time) means a predictable profit margin. If you want to borrow money for construction in this day and age, that is what is needed. 

That's one of the reasons that aluminium smelters are built next to nuclear and hydro plants. Guaranteed prices.

[Jeroen Goudswaard + 61]

On 10/3/2022 at 11:54 PM, notsonice said:

10 percent?? that is it???

Peanuts......as you should know industrial users of electric power have  to pay demand charges and pay rates on TOU schedules.....Cutting back use to less than 50 percent at peak TOU is typical for most big users of power IE they only run their equipment at full capacity when power is cheap.... this is a daily occurrence IE they scale back their use during the day. Do you realize why electric arc furnaces are typically run full capacity from 10 PM to 7 AM and during the day they scale back production???? Visit a foundry some day and you will see that during day shift they are doing maintenance and during the night shift they are melting.

 

clearly you have never worked in an industrial plant or refinery.

You really do not know what your are talking about.

 

10 percent power draw is peanuts to keep them online......This would be part of a negotiated power purchase agreement when you are talking 20 MW

Not in the EU it is. It has to be blue hydrogen.

[NickW + 2,714]

2 minutes ago, Jeroen Goudswaard said:

Having your own wind farm means you are disconnected from energy price fluctuations (unless there is literally no wind, about 5% of the time) means a predictable profit margin. If you want to borrow money for construction in this day and age, that is what is needed. 

That's one of the reasons that aluminium smelters are built next to nuclear and hydro plants. Guaranteed prices.

The determination to desalinate water is based on 

Wind availability (or cheap power from other sources) 

Whether its more profitable to supply that electricity into the grid rather than desalinate water during peak demand periods. 

The level of water reserves that can be drawn upon. 

[NickW + 2,714]

7 minutes ago, Jeroen Goudswaard said:

Not in the EU it is. It has to be blue hydrogen.

IMO blue hydrogen (for fuel) is just wasteful greenwash unless its actually needed for industrial processes.

Hydrogen only worthwhile once you have genuine surpluses of renewable / nuclear  / stranded energy and H" is an outlet for that energy.

Rather than fuels fertiliser would seem a better option in terms of what to do with it. 

[Jeroen Goudswaard + 61]

1 minute ago, NickW said:

IMO blue hydrogen (for fuel) is just wasteful greenwash unless its actually needed for industrial processes.

Hydrogen only worthwhile once you have genuine surpluses of renewable / nuclear  / stranded energy and H" is an outlet for that energy.

Rather than fuels fertiliser would seem a better option in terms of what to do with it. 

96% of hydrogen consumed in the world is made from natural gas. At the same time, hydrogen as a fuel is pretty much non-existent. So let's first displace that grey H2, and then worry about wasteful greenwashing.

[NickW + 2,714]

Just now, Jeroen Goudswaard said:

96% of hydrogen consumed in the world is made from natural gas. At the same time, hydrogen as a fuel is pretty much non-existent. So let's first displace that grey H2, and then worry about wasteful greenwashing.

Given the rapid outbuild of the UK's offshore wind fleet its likely we will start injecting H2 into the gas grid within the next 5-7 years as a way of mopping up intermittent surpluses. That said with the Russia Ukraine situation we appear to turning into a major electricity exporter to mainland Europe so perhaps that will defer that for some time. 

[Starschy + 211]

So Bulgaria give in. Till End of 2024 they will use Russian Oil at least. Why is that?

Think Railway Diesel, Think Airlines and think at least 200 Gasoline Stations all of them supported by Lukoil smaller Companies in Bulgaria. At least 60% of all Railway is Diesel. Meaning Oil, Oil and Oil again. There are two large Companies one for Passenger and one for Freight Trains. Investments are small like 150 Mio. to 500 Mio. annually. No large 5 Billion Loans for a 10 year upgrade.

Not to forget Germany there are 3000 Diesel locomotive in action.

More or less the same in Turkey, Romania. Poland about 1/3 is diesel of 18000 km. Hungary leases Diesel Locomotives in 2021. As Electric Power prices are now exceeding Diesel pricing. Major EU Countries will have troubles with Gasoline and Arilines. The same as Bulgaria. In Germany Rosneft is delievering Airport fuel to. BER Berlin, Munich, Stuttgart, Nuernberg.

Rosneft Bitumen producting in 3 large German factories for Road surfaces.

 

 

 

Edited October 5, 2022 by Starschy
addendum

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

11 hours ago, Starschy said:

So Bulgaria give in. Till End of 2024 they will use Russian Oil at least. Why is that?

Think Railway Diesel, Think Airlines and think at least 200 Gasoline Stations all of them supported by Lukoil smaller Companies in Bulgaria. At least 60% of all Railway is Diesel. Meaning Oil, Oil and Oil again. There are two large Companies one for Passenger and one for Freight Trains. Investments are small like 150 Mio. to 500 Mio. annually. No large 5 Billion Loans for a 10 year upgrade.

Not to forget Germany there are 3000 Diesel locomotive in action.

More or less the same in Turkey, Romania. Poland about 1/3 is diesel of 18000 km. Hungary leases Diesel Locomotives in 2021. As Electric Power prices are now exceeding Diesel pricing. Major EU Countries will have troubles with Gasoline and Arilines. The same as Bulgaria. In Germany Rosneft is delievering Airport fuel to. BER Berlin, Munich, Stuttgart, Nuernberg.

Rosneft Bitumen producting in 3 large German factories for Road surfaces.

 

 

 

Hows that 1000KM Russian front line going that you were soooo proud of? Telling us all it was the beginning of the end for Ukraine! LOL they cant run fast enough backwards!

[Mob61 + 2]

12 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Hows that 1000KM Russian front line going that you were soooo proud of? Telling us all it was the beginning of the end for Ukraine! LOL they cant run fast enough backwards!

It's Russia's "Special Escape Operation"