Is Europe heading for winter of discontent with extensive gas shortages?

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Gazprom's exports to China rose 61% in 7M

 

MOSCOW. Aug 1 (Interfax) - Gazprom increased gas exports to China through the Power of Siberia pipeline 60.9% in the first seven months of 2022, the Russian gas giant said.

"Exports of gas to China through the Power of Siberia pipeline are growing within the framework of a long-term bilateral contract between Gazprom and CNPC, growing 60.9% in seven months. Supplies in July in particular were regularly above the daily contract amount, hitting new all-time highs for daily export volumes three times," Gazprom said.

Supplies of Russian gas through Power of Siberia to China from the Chayanda field in Yakutia began at the end of 2019. They are due to be ramped up to 38 billion cubic meters per year in the first five years.

Gazprom supplied 10.39 bcm of gas to China through Power of Siberia in 2021, 390 million cubic meters above the contract amount. "Daily supplies of gas through the Power of Siberia pipeline exceeded Gazprom's daily contract obligations by a third starting in November 2021 in connection with weather conditions and higher demand on the Chinese gas market," Gazprom said in its annual report.

[Starschy + 211]

Gazprom Boards recommended 51.03 Rubles as 6 Months Dividends.

That means hear it:

That's equivalent to all Gazprom Dividends from 2017-2020. (Effektiv 52.80 but 6 months!)

Next Cash machine: Gazprom Cars fueling. A Gazprom subsidiary holds 1300 Gas stations in Russia and most of them selling diesel etc and not Gas.

 

[Starschy + 211]

Bulgaria is discussing prolonging the Gazprom contract. There are multiple discussions in Sofia and one of it - it's this Topic.

6 Months ago that was not even considered. But Government changed and new Elections are in front of us 14th Nov. 22.

The same trouble as in Poland. No Cash for TTF Futures.Those average Gazprom prices are at least near 1200 EUR instead of 3500.

Considering paying in Ruble instead of EUR. It will save a lot of money.

[Michael Sanches + 187]

Don't worry if there is discontent in Europe (or the world.) The Fuhrer will protect us.

 

America was so great . . . until we weren't. How much energy we have will not depend on needs, technology, or desires. It will totally depend on how it best serves the Leadership and keeps under control. 

Unrest is spreading around the world.

Germany braces for unrest (DW)

The French don't fool around!

The Tories will fall. Wrong place at the wrong time.

[Boat + 1,323]

On 8/29/2022 at 9:35 PM, Tomasz said:

No not Mexico or Canada. But killing milions in Vietnam using napalm and loosing 10.000 planes? Why not. 

You said Than that Vietnam really  learn you something. Because of that then there was bombing Yougoslavia invasion of Iraq for white powder and 20 year war in Afganistan ending as we saw all on Kabul airport. 

But not Canada or Mexico. Thats True. You prefer creating mess and leaving it to someone else. I would probably faster mention all countries which Noble Peace laureat Obama didnt bomb than bomb but I dont have time.  IT was called global war on terror so no wedding ceremony in Middle East was a safe party. 

You forget that anywhere the USSR/China took their power and influence, the US was there to meet them. This is the military umbrella we promised the world after WWII. After saving the USSR and China. Let trade flow and no need for a military response. Eh?

[Boat + 1,323]

8 hours ago, Michael Sanches said:

Don't worry if there is discontent in Europe (or the world.) The Fuhrer will protect us.

 

America was so great . . . until we weren't. How much energy we have will not depend on needs, technology, or desires. It will totally depend on how it best serves the Leadership and keeps under control. 

Unrest is spreading around the world.

Germany braces for unrest (DW)

The French don't fool around!

The Tories will fall. Wrong place at the wrong time.

Why do Russians need to die. Give up the Ukraine and go home. The reason your no longer the USSR is 1920 reasoning. Basically idiots politically along with much of the world. The woke are moving on without you and the rest of the war mongering idiots. It’s all about a clean planet and providing a path for our children. That needs intelligence mixed with capitalism. Globalism is all about not screwing up the planet. Get with the program. Eh?

[Starschy + 211]

Now it started with all those Steel Companies.

Switzerland Steel Gerlafingen the biggest in Switzerland 700'000 Tons per year. 50% of all Steel used annually in Switzerland.

Melting old steel requires 350 Gigawatt - equivalent for 70'000 house-holds

550 Workers set on reduced working time from October - December 2022.

Building Companies may have to search to Italy, Spain, France for alternatives. Meaning just in time is over. It will take weeks to months for a delivery.

[Starschy + 211]

On 9/3/2022 at 1:01 PM, Boat said:

Why do Russians need to die. Give up the Ukraine and go home. The reason your no longer the USSR is 1920 reasoning. Basically idiots politically along with much of the world. The woke are moving on without you and the rest of the war mongering idiots. It’s all about a clean planet and providing a path for our children. That needs intelligence mixed with capitalism. Globalism is all about not screwing up the planet. Get with the program. Eh?

Probably you should read first Ukas 117 from Ukraine. War declaration to Russia 21st March 2021.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Its simple. European Union froze 300 bilion dollars. Discuss price caps both on russian oil and  russian gas. 

Sorry but we can discuss whether some sanctions should be put on Russia. Probably yes.

But if you try to put SUCH sanctions on your biggest energy supplier simply please dont be suprised there is a countreaction. 

Its still I would say measured counterreaction as about 120 milion cubic meters and all oil is still flowing.

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Another question is if you want to buy gas from Nord Stream I maybe it would be a good move to at least not put sanctions that made repairing turbines unavailable or simply very difficcult?

Because its not really clear for me whether Russia or Siemens simple dont want to repair them or are they unable to repair them because of sanctions put by Canada and other western countries. You can here several version of the story whats the real problem with turbines for Nord Stream. You can also of course open NS II instead of not working NS I - I think its not really important whether you get 55 bilion cubic meters by NS I or NS II.

 

Edited September 4, 2022 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

I would say Zoltan Pozsar said it all

By not selling NG worth 20 bilion dollars Russia has a major leverage of survival of part of german industry worth about 2 bilion dollars. Its bigger leverage than even Leman Brothers bankrupcy in 2008.

Most powerful argument for future negotation how to end conflict between West and Russia over Ukraine.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

HEAD OF UKRAINE GAS TRANSIT OPERATOR TELLS REUTERS UKRAINE COULD TECHNICALLY SUBSTITUTE FULL CAPACITY OF NORD STREAM 1 VIA UKRAINE'S SUDZHA ENTRY POINT

So Europe will pay Putin billions for Russian gas transiting through Ukraine with Russia using proceeds to fight Ukraine?

And Russia paying Ukraine for the gas transit which uses the proceeds to fight Russia.

Edited September 5, 2022 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

NORD STREAM: Some nuance required on today's reporting. Some claim Russia will only restart Nord Stream if sanctions are lifted. What the Kremlin is saying is that maintenance can't be done due to sanctions and that it could if there were no sanctions. Not the same thing.

[Rob Plant + 2,747]

14 hours ago, Tomasz said:

HEAD OF UKRAINE GAS TRANSIT OPERATOR TELLS REUTERS UKRAINE COULD TECHNICALLY SUBSTITUTE FULL CAPACITY OF NORD STREAM 1 VIA UKRAINE'S SUDZHA ENTRY POINT

So Europe will pay Putin billions for Russian gas transiting through Ukraine with Russia using proceeds to fight Ukraine?

And Russia paying Ukraine for the gas transit which uses the proceeds to fight Russia.

Haha yeah the world is a fu*ked up place right now!

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,552]

7 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Haha yeah the world is a fu*ked up place right now!

Well hopefully things will change abruptly. You now have a new prime minister, it is being said she has the qualities of Margret Thatcher. Just as Trump ran MAGA she will put the UK best interest's first..and that is sorely needed right now. History has written how Regan&Thatcher changed the world, brought order..established a cohesive world society. Let us all hope that discipline and order returns

[TailingsPond + 671]

8 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Well hopefully things will change abruptly. You now have a new prime minister, it is being said she has the qualities of Margret Thatcher. Just as Trump ran MAGA she will put the UK best interest's first..and that is sorely needed right now. History has written how Regan&Thatcher changed the world, brought order..established a cohesive world society. Let us all hope that discipline and order returns

Seriously?

[Rob Plant + 2,747]

15 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

You now have a new prime minister, it is being said she has the qualities of Margret Thatcher.

Liz Truss is very right wing like Thatcher and she has appointed a very right wing cabinet. However before any comparisons can be made lets see what actions she takes before we judge. It is highly likely she will be in the job only 18 months as we will have a general election then and after Boris's numerous cock ups its not likely the Tories will get back in power.

[Hotone + 412]

16 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Well hopefully things will change abruptly. You now have a new prime minister, it is being said she has the qualities of Margret Thatcher. Just as Trump ran MAGA she will put the UK best interest's first..and that is sorely needed right now. History has written how Regan&Thatcher changed the world, brought order..established a cohesive world society. Let us all hope that discipline and order returns

There is not a lot going for the UK in the foreseeable future, and I am not sure what difference Liz Truss can make.  She seems to be prioritizing diversity and gender equality in her cabinet appointments - no White men in top posts.

https://youtu.be/qw87uW4hcKQ

Edited September 7, 2022 by Hotone

[Rob Plant + 2,747]

30 minutes ago, Hotone said:

There is not a lot going for the UK in the foreseeable future, and I am not sure what difference Liz Truss can make.  She seems to be prioritizing diversity and gender equality in her cabinet appointments - no White men in top posts.

https://youtu.be/qw87uW4hcKQ

In her defence its mainly because the majority of white men in the Tory parts are half wits, not because she's overly prioritising gender equality or diversity. UK politicians in the main are utterly useless.

We do have our own NG with new North Sea fields coming on stream this year so thats a big win, and we only buy LNG to sell to the EU.

We also have the largest wind farm in the world which is cheap energy. Lots of positives going forward compared to our near neighbours.

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

On 9/5/2022 at 9:22 PM, Tomasz said:

NORD STREAM: Some nuance required on today's reporting. Some claim Russia will only restart Nord Stream if sanctions are lifted. What the Kremlin is saying is that maintenance can't be done due to sanctions and that it could if there were no sanctions. Not the same thing.

If the latter is true then Russia needs Western expertise badly and it is only a matter of time before they come crawling... 

What do you think ? 

[Hotone + 412]

3 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

In her defence its mainly because the majority of white men in the Tory parts are half wits, not because she's overly prioritising gender equality or diversity. UK politicians in the main are utterly useless.

We do have our own NG with new North Sea fields coming on stream this year so thats a big win, and we only buy LNG to sell to the EU.

We also have the largest wind farm in the world which is cheap energy. Lots of positives going forward compared to our near neighbours.

You may be right that the UK is better off than your neighbours.  However, that's a depressing commentary of Europe's predicament.  Sorry to pop your bubble, but at last count, the UK imports 35% of its energy needs and self sufficiency (never mind earning export income) is many years away.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-10702803/UKs-energy-production-fell-lowest-level-50-years-year.html

https://www.statista.com/topics/4938/energy-imports-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

1 hour ago, Hotone said:

You may be right that the UK is better off than your neighbours.  However, that's a depressing commentary of Europe's predicament.

what predicament?

This is clearly hurting. But at some point you have to stance. I am not blindly pro-American. But what is happening in Ukraine is simply barbaric. Should policies have different 30 years ago to avoid this. Probably. But it doesn't mean that what is happening in Ukraine is right. 

I for one am happy to wear a sweater this winter if I need to, to be able to take a stance against Russias actions in Ukraine. In 1-2 years time Russia wont be able to weaponize NG anymore. 

Edited September 7, 2022 by Rasmus Jorgensen

[Rob Plant + 2,747]

1 hour ago, Hotone said:

You may be right that the UK is better off than your neighbours.  However, that's a depressing commentary of Europe's predicament.  Sorry to pop your bubble, but at last count, the UK imports 35% of its energy needs and self sufficiency (never mind earning export income) is many years away.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-10702803/UKs-energy-production-fell-lowest-level-50-years-year.html

https://www.statista.com/topics/4938/energy-imports-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/

Yeah we do import that from Norway predominantly.

We now have the North Sea Link (1.4GW interconnector) where we can buy power from Norway's hydro and when they need more they buy from the UK's wind power, (as I type Norway are using 1.13GW). we have 8 interconnectors that can supply 8.4GW of power if needed, or we can sell to those connected.

With the new gas field operational since March with phase 2 round the corner they will ramp up production and that will make us pretty much self sufficient especially with loads of renewable projects underway which will produce green hydrogen which we will be mixing (15-20%) into the NG for heating and cooking further reducing the need for NG.

https://www.airswift.com/blog/offshore-wind-energy-projects-uk

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1092555/hydrogen-strategy-update-to-the-market-july-2022.pdf

Renewables made up 28.1% of all powergen in the UK last year and that will increase dramatically

https://grid.iamkate.com/

Your article is from April before any data had come from the new gas field.

We do buy and sell OZ LNG though as we already import enough for our needs.

As Rasmus says if we have to have a couple of years of pain to get the desired result then thats fine by us.

Its OK my bubble isnt popped as you may not be aware of all that is currently happening in the UK right now.

 

Edited September 7, 2022 by Rob Plant

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

On 9/4/2022 at 11:28 PM, Tomasz said:

But if you try to put SUCH sanctions on your biggest energy supplier simply please dont be suprised there is a countreaction. 

I would like for all it to stop. Within a few years Russia looses the power that this gives. 

Wait and see. Energy conservation will reduce energy consumption much more than most expect. And then what for your beloved Russia? Only one real client - China. How do think they will treat Russia? 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

 

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

Renewables made up 28.1% of all powergen in the UK last year and that will increase dramatically

A strong argument for renewables. 

Another thing - look at how public opinion is changing towards nuclear. Maybe something good will come from this crisis. Tomasz and others underestimate what the freeworld can do when it needs to. Just look at how quickly we developed vaccines against covid

Edited September 7, 2022 by Rasmus Jorgensen