Is Europe heading for winter of discontent with extensive gas shortages?

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, RichieRich216 said:

We may not be at peace because we can't sit back when free people are being Slaughtered, Unlike Russia, we don't build colonies, but as a whole, we will stand for others!
 

Live with it!

I don't believe this! You slaughtered some 20 million people in 37 countries worldwide since WWII. Usually, for reasons entirely made up. This makes you a runner-up most bloodthirsty regime after Nazis only.

You never had a colony in Hawaii, Philippines, Guam or Puerto Rico? This is not what you are doing in Latin America right now?

Russia never had any colonies. People at the fringes got the same rights as Russians living in Moscow. So are the Ukrainians in the freshly occupied territories being offered Russian citizenships right away.

I would be very hardpressed to come up with a single example of Uncle Sam being a charitable organization like you think it is. When have you done anybody a favor free of charge?

Ukrainians are, by no means, free. There is only one party left, and only one officially government approved source of news. Ze is quite the great dictator these days. Nobody male under 60 may leave the country or even their assigned regions, summons to appear to recruitment points are being handed out everywhere. In an ATM line, on a beach, etc. Unless you are a relative or cronies of an MP or government member, that is.

Edited July 27, 2022 by Andrei Moutchkine

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

3 hours ago, RichieRich216 said:

Patton was right in 1945; We had everything we needed on the Continent and should have moved against the CCCP then and saved multiple trillions of dollars.

"Should have" is not history, it is fantasy.

Read about the actual history before spouting "history will repeat itself." 

Fact is, Russia has historically been an ally.  It was only the cold war dick measuring contest that ruined the relationship.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 7/6/2022 at 10:48 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

It will cost Russia even more.

No. All the damage is already done. There is very little point in selling for dollars and euros if there is nothing you can buy with those, anyway.

[Selva + 252]

You are off the topic. All posts that are off the topic will be deleted. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 7/28/2022 at 11:36 AM, Wombat One said:

Once again, you miss the point. Putin threatened nuclear weapons, repeatedly. Of course the West is no longer interested in Russian oil and NG. Never will be again. You declared war, we intend to win it at any cost.

Your sense of being a part of some kind of West is misguided, my marsupial friend. Where you really are is called upside down. I am pretty positive Putin never threatened Australia with anything, nor did he declare any war. Not even on Ukraine next door, not to speak of the other hemisphere. Which, incidentally, Russian weapons can reach, while yours cannot reach back. So, be careful what you wish for? There is safety in numbers, and Russia got bigger fish to fry right now. This is the real winning strategy for you to stick to.

Edited July 30, 2022 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

7 hours ago, Wombat One said:

Winter is always colder in Russia? Have you not noticed that NATO will have no reason to allow Russian oil & gas fields to operate if they are NOTHING BUT A WEAPON THAT IS BEST TO DESTROY? At the moment, it makes sense for NATO to allow Russian O&G to flow to the rest of the world because that helps fill Western storage. But if the West runs out of gas in winter, where is the incentive to allow Russia to have any? Use your brain please? You will FEEL THE HEAT soon, and then you will FREEZE? This is no game. This is life and death. Russians might like to think their lives are worth more than anyone else's, that is what makes your lives equally cheap in our eyes. We have not fired a single bullet upon you yet, but you keep begging? Your wish will be granted in January. Let us see how valuable your oil & gas becomes then? And I hope you realise that the quickest and easiest way for the West to reduce global demand for oil and LNG is to do a naval blockade of the world's largest customer? Think about it. You want to be careful what you wish for you intellectual pip-squeak. I can guarantee that stagflation will not be tolerated in a US election year. Especially stagflation brought on by a pip-squeak country.

Nobody in Russia gives a damn what NATO thinks anymore. Touch our stuff, and what gets destroyed is your ass. NATO + Australia (which happens to be really a member state, note) have provided enemies of Russia with weapons, which did kill Russians. I am sure if you knew how to shoot, you'd do it yourself, but the difference is not that large at this point. The Busmaster APCs you sent are already ferrous dust on the fields of Donbass. What else have you got? Who do you want to blockade? Russia? China? Which was your largest and best customer, not Russia's. Apparently, you started the naval blockade with yourself. US elections can tolerate anything, after electing the vegetable-in-chief. I presume you marsupials are smarter than this and vote with your pouches?

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

2 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Nobody in Russia gives a damn what NATO thinks anymore. Touch our stuff, and what gets destroyed is your ass. NATO + Australia (which happens to be really a member state, note) have provided enemies of Russia with weapons, which did kill Russians. I am sure if you knew how to shoot, you'd do it yourself, but the difference is not that large at this point. The Busmaster APCs you sent are already ferrous dust on the fields of Donbass. What else have you got? Who do you want to blockade? Russia? China? Which was your largest and best customer, not Russia's. Apparently, you started the naval blockade with yourself. US elections can tolerate anything, after electing the vegetable-in-chief. I presume you marsupials are smarter than this and vote with your pouches?

Yeah they killed a lot of Russians and are going to kill many more!!! Russia is going to get pushed out of Kherson in a couple weeks. The Russian military is a laughing stock.

Edited July 28, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

On 7/28/2022 at 10:43 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

Yeah they killed a lot of Russians and are going to kill many more!!! Russia is going to get pushed out of Kherson in a couple weeks. The Russian military is a laughing stock.

 Let's see how well that went in a couple of weeks, shall we? It is time to start subjecting wild predictions like yours to some form of an audit. Aren't all Russians dead by the miracle of Javelin, already? I think we are going to stay, because Kherson is a nice place, and we quite enjoy it there. Case closed.

AFAIK, has the later day Soviet Union/modern Russia avoided arming your enemies with its latest weapons thus far. In fact, Russia has done absolutely nothing to you to deserve any of this BS. It did not "meddle in your elections" for example. I hope, this time around it is going to be different. Many, many dead Yankees for every dad Russian. Remember Korea? Vietnam? That bad, or worse. Like you deserve for your amazing penchant for turning your best friends into sworn enemies. Which is what you did with me.

Edited August 13, 2022 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

4 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

 Let's see how well that went in a couple of weeks, shall we? It is time to start subjecting wild predictions like yours to some form of an audit. Aren't all Russians dead to the miracle of Javelin, already? I think we are going to stay, because Kherson is a nice place, and we quite enjoy it there. Case closed.

AFAIK, has the later day Soviet Union/modern Russia avoided arming your enemies with its latest weapons thus far. In fact, Russia has done absolutely nothing to you to deserve any of this BS. It did not "meddle in your elections" for example. I hope, this time around it is going to be different. Many, many dead Yankees for every dad Russian. Remember Korea? Vietnam? That bad, or worse. Like you deserve for your amazing penchant for turning your best friends into sworn enemies. Which is what you did with me.

Russia invaded a friendly country without provocation. What enemy would Russia arm? China is building its own weapons, that leaves Iran,  India isn't our enemy and in fact are about to become a Western arms client. Russians are dying in mass right now and there are only a handful of American volunteers on the front lines. The kill ratio is something like 40K to 4.

Oh and don't forget what happened last time when Russia's elite / best paid fignhing force tried to invade our territory: 

‘The Battle of Khasham’ saw US troops rout Russian mercenaries in Syria

 https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-trending/battle-of-khasham/

On Feb. 7, 2018, 500 pro-government Syrian troops, including Iranian-trained Shia militiamen, along with Russian military contractors (Wagner Group) began their attack on the SDF headquarters. The assault began with mortars and rockets, supported by Soviet-built T-72 and T-55 tanks. Unfortunately for the Syrians, the SDF base just happened to be filled with 40 American special operations forces. After calling to ensure no official Russian forces would be harmed in the making of their counterattack, the operators called down the thunder.

American Special Forces called in AC-130 “Spooky” Gunships, F-15E Strike Eagles, Reaper drones, Apache helicopters, F-22 Raptors and even B-52 Stratofortress bombers. If that wasn’t enough to kill everything coming at them, nearby Marine Corps artillery batteries got in on the action. The attack was turned away, decisively. The only questions that remained were how many were killed in the “fighting” and how was the Syrian government going to cover up this epic mistake?

Coalition forces took one casualty, an SDF fighter who was wounded. The United States estimated the Syrians lost 100 killed. The Syrian government says 55 were killed in the fighting with a further loss of 10 Russian mercenaries. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported 68 Syrians dead. Russian media lamented the idea that Russian remains were “abandoned” on the battlefield.

Edited July 29, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Russia invaded a friendly country without provocation. What enemy would Russia arm? China is building its own weapons, that leaves Iran,  India isn't our enemy and in fact are about to become a Western arms client. Russians are dying in mass right now and there are only a handful of American volunteers on the front lines. The kill ratio is something like 40K to 4.

Oh and don't forget what happened last time when Russia's elite / best paid fignhing force tried to invade our territory: 

‘The Battle of Khasham’ saw US troops rout Russian mercenaries in Syria

 https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-trending/battle-of-khasham/

On Feb. 7, 2018, 500 pro-government Syrian troops, including Iranian-trained Shia militiamen, along with Russian military contractors (Wagner Group) began their attack on the SDF headquarters. The assault began with mortars and rockets, supported by Soviet-built T-72 and T-55 tanks. Unfortunately for the Syrians, the SDF base just happened to be filled with 40 American special operations forces. After calling to ensure no official Russian forces would be harmed in the making of their counterattack, the operators called down the thunder.

American Special Forces called in AC-130 “Spooky” Gunships, F-15E Strike Eagles, Reaper drones, Apache helicopters, F-22 Raptors and even B-52 Stratofortress bombers. If that wasn’t enough to kill everything coming at them, nearby Marine Corps artillery batteries got in on the action. The attack was turned away, decisively. The only questions that remained were how many were killed in the “fighting” and how was the Syrian government going to cover up this epic mistake?

Coalition forces took one casualty, an SDF fighter who was wounded. The United States estimated the Syrians lost 100 killed. The Syrian government says 55 were killed in the fighting with a further loss of 10 Russian mercenaries. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported 68 Syrians dead. Russian media lamented the idea that Russian remains were “abandoned” on the battlefield.

It does not matter, Whoever the target of your next pointless aggression is. Just pointing out that the Russians haven't started yet with doing what you've done to them. You are the ones who insist that Russia is your enemy, for no real reason whatsoever. Convenience for the sake of the existence base of propaganda drivel you've built up against USSR. The benchmark is 10K:1? All right, I think you are on. Will have to wait for the next time  you bring 10K+ armed goons anywhere. For all the time since Vietnam you've been at war with some hapless 3rd world country (pretty much every day since) you have yet to encounter up-to-date Russian kit. There is always the first time for anything. For example, I will have to rip you a new one right now. Because I am sorry, the story or of "AC-130 “Spooky” Gunships, F-15E Strike Eagles, Reaper drones, Apache helicopters, F-22 Raptors and even B-52 Stratofortress bombers attacking an old tank and a few APC simultaneously ought to be insulting to anybody's intelligence. Incidentally, the source of this BS was NYT regurgitating an earlier article of their own. Must have been the team B  What else has the Air Force got that flies, the Powerpuff Girls?

This article has an actual unclassified video from the event.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/18533/russian-mercenaries-take-a-lead-in-attacks-on-us-and-allied-forces-in-syria

(Not directly related to the text). A reaper drone killed a T-72 tank and a bunch of guys who had no AA. Which  is not at all typical for the Russian regulars, but not impossible. Der Spiegel actually sent somebody to investigate the incident:

https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/american-fury-the-truth-about-the-russian-deaths-in-syria-a-1196074.html

To summarize, if they were any dead Wagner mercs there at all, they were not with the attacking party, but guarding a nearby structure and got hit by an accident. No strategic bombers, no space lasers. Sorry. Now, can you explain why does US occupy a large part of Syria, which happens to be the one where they keep their oil and which you've been stealing all this time? You don't appear to be invited or welcome there, and without a provocation for real.

Ukraine was a friendly and innocent country, after 8 years of rampaging Nazi goons killing the people of Donbass for choosing to be Russian? All they had to do to avoid this war was to abide by the terms of the peace treaty they signed in 2015. Again, the atmosphere of total impunity the Ukronazies operated under is all your fault. You barely had to lift a finger for your new puppets to do whatever, so why didn't you?

 

[Blackbag99 + 20]

On 7/1/2022 at 1:24 PM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

They are rerouting to China as quick as they can. Just how quick that is open to debate, but very likely faster than Europe can switch to other sources.

So the The EU Storage doesn't really tell that story!

 

68% full today, on target for 92% to 94% at 1st December. Quite frankly, Russia need to find an entire new marker come April 2023.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

7 hours ago, Blackbag99 said:

So the The EU Storage doesn't really tell that story!

 

68% full today, on target for 92% to 94% at 1st December. Quite frankly, Russia need to find an entire new marker come April 2023.

Russia will manage. You may have noticed that they actually make more revenue on reduced volume, which suggests a strongly inelastic demand. Without the affordable Russian energy, Europe ceases to be a competitive industrialized economy, so it is their choice...

[Starschy + 211]

On 7/29/2022 at 9:54 PM, Blackbag99 said:

So the The EU Storage doesn't really tell that story!

 

68% full today, on target for 92% to 94% at 1st December. Quite frankly, Russia need to find an entire new marker come April 2023.

That's nonsense. The Capacity in EU is 58.55%. Gas storage in Germany was in the low 60%. Russia get a huge Cash-inflow. As those TFF in Rotterdam are now in the 190 EUR range. November 2018 25 EUR, July 2021, 41 EUR July 2022 190 EUR.

The price increased by Factor 8.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Let me explain one thing.

With every year passing Ukraine stopped to be friendly nation to Russia because of growing rampant nationalism.

This war is in many ways created by at least rampant nationalism of historically very young Ukrainian nation. Young nation are this one who are most nationalistic.

By the way  ukrainiannationhood was created by Austria Empire in XIX century to divide Poles and citizen of Eastern Poland in I Rzeczpospolita times. 

First achievement of this rampant nationalism was Volyn Massacre - 150.000 people killed for nothing more than just being Poles. 

Watch Ukrainian tv. This time they wanted to anihilate Russians

Why should I support this kind of plan? With whom?

If you realy want to murder not polish minority during II World War that cant defend themselves. No nów you wanted to kill or anihilate  minority of country that is actually maybe not a World hegemon like USA but still nuclear power.

So Good luck with that and nów brunt consequences

Edited July 31, 2022 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Biggest misconception is that there was ever anything like united Ukraine.

No at least you have nationalistic western Ukraine central Ukraine and russophone eastern Ukraine and Ukrainian citizenship. Breaking this consensus ultimately by overthrowing Yanukovytch on 2014 leads to today situation.

You can read at least Samuel Huntington on that aspect.

Trying to create myth of one unitednationalistic Ukraine will simply lead US to breakup of this country. That's what we see today.

 

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

But back to the topic

I really think that finally Germany will have a lot of gas this Winter.  This is SO long term strategic  partnership between Russia and Germany.  Russia bet on 3, countries in Europe- Germany France Italy and from Central Europe Slovakia and Hungary. 

But Winter is coming SO after European Union fist under US infuence made sanctions and only later thought about consequences its really high time to talk about easing sanctions to get this gaś for Winter. 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

But back to the topic

I really think that finally Germany will have a lot of gas this Winter.  This is SO long term strategic  partnership between Russia and Germany.  Russia bet on 3, countries in Europe- Germany France Italy and from Central Europe Slovakia and Hungary. 

But Winter is coming SO after European Union fist under US infuence made sanctions and only later thought about consequences its really high time to talk about easing sanctions to get this gaś for Winter. 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

On 7/30/2022 at 5:06 AM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Russia will manage. You may have noticed that they actually make more revenue on reduced volume, which suggests a strongly inelastic demand. Without the affordable Russian energy, Europe ceases to be a competitive industrialized economy, so it is their choice...

need to be somewhere to ship it though... infrastructure doesnt get built by snap of fingers..

[specinho + 470]

On 7/28/2022 at 6:38 PM, Wombat One said:

Indeed. 3 or 4 times as much. I expect Russian GDP to collapse by a further 36-48% over the next year. And inflation in Russia will run at triple the pace than in the West. China made a huge mistake in starting a trade war with Australia, and Russia made an even bigger mistake in starting one with Europe and the USA. Don't they realise that the USA, Australia, Canada, and also Qatar have far greater natural gas reserves than Russia and Iran? The world is at an inflection point, difficult choices need to be made, such as "who will be the future eaters"? The "co-operative approach" has clearly failed? By all means, support the energy transition as I do, but let's not pretend there is enough food, water, energy, and minerals to suffice? Let alone trees? Something has to give? False optimism is no match for "greenflation"? Time to tell the truth Jay?

📢   📢   party poopper........ party poopper.......... party poopper...................

 

 

ancient wisdom from a ~ 50 years old book might have something else planned out way back......

<Our changing world>, Sobel and Oliver, Laidlaw Brothers, Publishers, 1969, page 698 - 701

 

1. 3 alternatives of future international system

a) integrated  world - cooperative association of nations which will work together to prevent wars and promote peaceful development.

b) balanced world - limited cooperation, occasional limited conflicts and relatively unequal national development

c) disintegrated world - intense conflict, emotional actions and reactions, probably nuclear war

***** note: we might be in a situation of all three combined.

 

2. The nature of balanced world

- competitive but peaceful coexistence between capitalist and communist nations

- one of the major reasons for the continued existence of a balanced world will be the continuing break up of the communist bloc....nations of Eastern Europe will probably become more and more independent of the Soviet Union

- China may be less of a threat in the future due to

a) disagreement between Soviet and China may become more serious. Soviet takes steps to cooperate with the United States to contain any attempts by communist China to expand its power.

b) probable growth of Japan........ Japan is expected to become the dominant power in Asia by the end of the twentieth century......... Japan will serve as a counter force to any attempt by communist China to expand its influence.   Moreover, it is hoped that other Asian nations will turn toward Japan as their leader, thus further decreasing communist China's influence. ..............

c) the country will face internal problems.

******** note: unification of the world under one ideology, one type of leadership might have failed. Although the initial thought of Hitler might be correct on certain perspectives. He said (pg 567):"

individuals, as such, have no essential moral, intellectual, or physical worth ( or majority of people do not know what to do. They need to be told and led.). The nation, he said, gives men a purpose in life and, in turn, men have value only as they contribute to the strength of the whole country................ the strong should rule the weak......."

Leadership gaps have been putting a lot of pressure onto the future of Japan, its alliances and the healthy sustainability of those establishment. A natural process of growth curve, i.e. latent period of growth; exponential phase; static phase; declining phase, is affecting them rather deeply..... They might have brought many positive changes to the world....... still are........... But overdone it would eventually give way to possible negative impacts on their own countries on the rebound.

 

 

3. barring major scientific breakthrough in the future by one nation or another, there is every reason to believe that a balance of power can be maintained.

****** note: do not believe blindly on all scientific research?

 

4. economic and political unification of western europe could be accomplished by the year 2000. If this occurs,western europe may be in the position of third world power interested in maintaining world peace.

****** note: new leader of the world?

 

The key question remains.......

if uniformity has many problems raised by diverse gene pools and capacity, do we still insist it takes place?

If yes, we would need to be prepared to handle endless emerging issues and unrest.

If no, why has it been difficult to see all diverging things would converge at one point and all converging things would divert at one point? Why have we been adamant to insist our way is the best  and only way to be?

 

 

Edited August 2, 2022 by specinho

[RichieRich216 + 454]

WOW, The greenie Giants revert to what the world has plenty of! 

[Starschy + 211]

On the side arrises a significant issue in Europe.

France with 56 Nuclear Power Stations

18 of them are in Maintenance so about 6 Month to a year

12 of them have corrosion issues - I think they are closed up to three years

Meaning France has to import electric Power first time in decades. And we don't discuss minor volumes.

And for sure the export is falling heavy for other European Countries

Edited August 2, 2022 by Starschy

[Starschy + 211]

On 8/1/2022 at 10:47 PM, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

need to be somewhere to ship it though... infrastructure doesnt get built by snap of fingers..

Russia will have a very minor reduced result. About 5-7% in 2022. Russians are very pragmatic types. They don't care if Apple or Oppo Products. As long as they work, Oppo is fine too. Compared with those 40% Minus which the Ukrainians have Russian Economy is doing well. They have managed without Ikea, Apple, Hermes and further Products for at least 90 years.

If the US think Oil cap will work - think again. Oil prices go up at least 20%.

There are at least 150 Countries which need Oil, and better cheap, if possible. Even large Oil Producer (Saudia Arabia) buy Russian Oil for say 85 USD or Ruble equivalent, in arbitrage, for selling their own Oil for a higher margin

[NickW + 2,714]

Just ordered another 2.7Kw of solar. Thats going on the extension roof in September (East-west faces) 

Thats another 2200kwh of leccy permanently off European demand / 4000ish kwh of gas (russian gas ultimately)

 

[Starschy + 211]

Those solar panel won't help you in the winter.

[specinho + 470]

woowwwwww................. This elder was sharp...... How things might have not changed much over time......... 'o'    >.<