WTI @ 67.50, charts show $62.50 next

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Just don't understand why trump hired OMN (her initials), corny joke coming, just a warning, I would say she was a bad omen.

[drdanger + 7]

On 8/22/2018 at 10:03 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

Before this news came out i did say in the wee hours it looks like oil wont go down anymore and go back up, i didnt know about the news comming out.

You are as bad as any other fomo nerd out there. The lesson here stick with original plan because it was there for a reason in the first place and not join the FUD nonsense. Disappointed as I thought you were a serious man. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Just to maybe not show off really, but to prove my point. This  chart is based on trading 1 currency, starting with a $2,000 account over 3 years, trading 1 contract only, not realistic since you would need a higher account, but nonethe less i just wanted to show that the 2,000 did not blow up during this whole period in this test i used data from last 3 years.

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

wti almost 70 here, and dow heading back to 25880

[oilfutures + 39]

/

Edited August 24, 2018 by oilfutures

[oilfutures + 39]

Just now, Top Oil Trader said:

wti almost 70 here, and dow heading back to 25880

What happens at 70?

[oilfutures + 39]

8 minutes ago, drdanger said:

You are as bad as any other fomo nerd out there. The lesson here stick with original plan because it was there for a reason in the first place and not join the FUD nonsense. Disappointed as I thought you were a serious man. 

One thing I learned is everyone is right eventually and rarely has anyone in this industry hit tops or bottoms.  IMO markets are two way and involve TA and FA. Typically those who are TA ignore FA and vice versa making it impossible to ever be right. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Just to maybe not show off really, but to prove my point. This  chart is based on trading 1 currency, starting with a $2,000 account over 3 years, trading 1 contract only, not realistic since you would need a higher account, but nonethe less i just wanted to show that the 2,000 did not blow up during this whole period in this test i used data from last 3 years.

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Ok finally was able to run my very good system on oil. And though the system is up about 3x over 3 years, it was my worst resultI ever got. This would mean that crude is a lot more volatile or maybe it is a lot more erratic, than the stock market, or currencies

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Now if i set up my system on WTI. It looks like WTI will drop again, and that 69xx or close to it will be a high, dropping it back to 67.

[Epic + 390]

11 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Just to maybe not show off really, but to prove my point. This  chart is based on trading 1 currency, starting with a $2,000 account over 3 years, trading 1 contract only, not realistic since you would need a higher account, but nonethe less i just wanted to show that the 2,000 did not blow up during this whole period in this test i used data from last 3 years.

 

Can you give us some more data on this chart?  For instance, how many trades do you make per day, and what is the commission rate per trade?  Then, have you factored in those commission costs so as not to accidentally compound those as earnings?  Moreover, if this process is so successful, then why not show us your actual real data that you really traded rather than showing us back-tested data?  Give us trade confirmations, times, dates, and values.  These things would prove your system actually works.  Back-tested data only proves that your system could have worked if you coupled it would a time-machine.  Also, it is one thing for an algorithm to work during a bull run, but you have also tried this same trading algorithm during a bear market or recession?  Our bull market has been going strong for over 3,500 days, the longest in history.  All of your charts and algorithms could prove to be utterly useless should that market shift.  So, fair warning.

Don't get me wrong.  I think TA has some very powerful uses, I just think those uses are limited to very short-term trades, specifically: getting into and out of individual stock positions that are intended for long term holding, not for making a quick 3-year 7,567.15% gain.  I'm just saying that if you could reliably make more than a 50% yearly gain, you should be living in the Cayman's on your yacht as you rake in the $$$ from your billionaire clients.  But you are not promoting a 50% yearly return, you are promoting something much much higher, and I want to point out how fishy this seems in order to also give fair warning to other individuals on this forum who may not be fully aware of these facts.  Hindsight is always 20-20, which is why it is dangerous to use back-tested data to predict future events.  I do wish you luck, however.  And happy trading!

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I am doing this for myself, all im showing is what results im getting. I am not looking for anyones capital. All im sharing is what results im getting from using various ways of trading. Yes in the beginning i was getting very low results, not until I really made it sophisticated did i get high results, with much better exits. Now i dont know what you mean by 50% year return, even my best was 44k on a 100k contract over 3 years. That is about 14% a year without using margin, not what you say 7000% returns, not sure how you get those numbers, I am showing a chart that if the amt required to invest with margin was only 2k, in some countries it is acceptable, but if you trade with no margin the returns would be much less. So say you made 2% a year but now you use 20x margin and assuming you didnt get a margin call that 2% becomes 40%, makes sense? What I showed on these charts is that even if I ran the account with just 2k on margin, it never goes negative below 2k. So i am not showing 7000% returns on a no margin account, indeed that would be unheard of, you are 100% right.

Hi, this chart is based on automatic trades, but i need to run this from a dedicated server, when i tried this form my home, it was a mess, every time i  had a break in the internet. Or an update from windows. This is the worst performance I have, on SPX or DAX it shows the acct would get to the 44,000 in 3 years. Now, commission is based on your broker and so is slippage. I have used the most sophisticated system I could come up with, and when I first tried with a lesser system, I got much worse results, on the Eur i think best i got was like 9k, and since this chart the results are even better. This is based on 3 years, now i did some tests on crude this would be maybe 2 or 3 trades a week, and for crude I was only able to get about 8 to 9k results. So the best results i got was 44k on Dax 44k on spx 26k or usdjpy and about 20k on gbpusd. This is based on trading 1 contract which is about 100k, what the margin is I'm not sure depends on broker. You are right I should be living in the Cayman I have been there, but I am not well connected. So on spx the results was 44k on 1 contract over 3 years, which  really is only 4.4% over 3 years that is not a lot, but if you trade with margin it is.. Again I have not tested this yet even on a demo account, but I am running a EURUSD auto trader and its up $2,200 just on 1 trade. When you say hindsight is 20/20 this is when doing it manually, then you can see it clearly, but the programs it's based on the actual data, it doesn't look back and then do the trade. So it is much better than manual, where it is subjective. I guess I am a bit emotional sometimes, so i need to let it's do its thing automatically. And it is very sophisticated. For example lets say we take the MACD indicator. Do i use it when, it crosses the signal line, when the line is higher than the signal line but it already crossed long ago, do i use it when both lines are above the zero line, or one of them, do it use it in any combination, and then do i use other signals that also could have 20 options, do i want 3 of these to happen 2. And to find what works what doesn't is infinite, so this is what I use,  in auto. In manual I try to simplify it quite a bit. This is  too complicated to do manually, brain is bound to make some kind of mistake.  

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

All i can say that having run 1000s of models with many sub combinations, this week alone,it has made me a much more accurate trader, something that may have taken me 20 years to learn,  i cut down to 1 week, since i learnt that what I thought was a really good way to enter or exit, I have now found much better ways, and not only better but safer, or higher probability trades. Whether i will ever use these programs I have no idea, I first need to test them live, to see if in  fact those results materialize. Epic i sure do appreciate your input. But the chart you are looking at is an old system already, by now I updated it to be a lot safer and better results. And as good as these systems will get I can always make them more accurate with more dynamic code, but that might take weeks. for now the system is ok i like it where it is, and there is no need to go crazy. I know the parameters, I  saved the programs, so if i ever decide to use it, i have it saved. If someday in the future i decide to use it, then i can use these programs to fire them off automatically 24/7. I know i constantly look for good signal services, just to compare, and now I guess i don't have to waste my time. I have even signed up for services that charged me $200 - $350 a month, but quickly left, this was before i understood charts, the way I do today. Which from this past week just got hyperbolically better.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Epic since you asked for some statistics, I can tell you have looked at such reports before for me this is the first time, i am looking at these. I ran this test just for you on the SP500. I ran this test from 2015 until present, will show you how many trades it did, how much in loss, how much net after the losses. 

 

140 Trades.

Acct start $10,000

Acct value end is $44,200

Max Drawdown $6,440,

Net profit $34,188

Chart results

so that is only 34%, trading one sp500 contract, but  those returns would be higher the higher the margins.

 

Edited August 24, 2018 by Top Oil Trader
wrong update

[ATK + 355]

8 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Ok finally was able to run my very good system on oil. And though the system is up about 3x over 3 years, it was my worst resultI ever got. This would mean that crude is a lot more volatile or maybe it is a lot more erratic, than the stock market, or currencies

It's a commodity so it indeed trades different from stocks and currencies. I think you really do overlook fundamentals and take too much of a technical approach with things. Now don't get me wrong, TA has its purpose, but it should have at least some context too it.

The erratic volatility you talk about is simply just supple and demand principles which in themselves are controlled by a number of different factors (geopolitics, drilling logistics, dollar strength, etc).

I think when you incorporate FA with TA you get a full picture of what's going on/what could happen.

Edited August 25, 2018 by ATK

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

No i agree, fundamentals are very important to 90% of traders. I must have spent in the last 2 weeks $7k on plugins to create my automated trading, this is really my goal, and as we speak the first chart i posted here on which i got so much grief, that I was told is some kind of fraud, my charts now show 3x better performance, and will only I know now what to look for with a lot more accuracy in manual trade, when instruments move when they dont. when its high prob to go short or long, or stay out. My forex programs right now which start with a 2k account trading eur with  1 lot eventually nets 49k after losses, and most  likely it would be safer for me to start with 5k, just in case i get a couple of bad trades in a row  in the beginning

By now i could call a couple of brokers and hedgefunds to show them my results, I wish I had these kind of programs before i started trading, but without heavy trading experience i would never have known what worked what didnt, and even know the results i get now, will get even better in the future, you might call me a perfectionist who is always trying to outdo the latest results. Lots of brokers i know are looking for proptraders, and I could easily just plug in one of these programs and blow them away. Not looking for any awards, just trading results. Why dont i just ask someone to write me these programs, well their fee is $300 an hour, by the time we get finished with 1 program will be out $3k, so not worth it. I realize lots of people are doing what I am doing from hedgefunds to housewifes, so I just need to connect with that crowd.

Having said that i think most people here are great, and are really helpful. I prob wont post my views anymore, firstly cause i dont trade oil or the dow now, so its really from taking a quick glance, I have been right lots of times, but I need to stop what im doing, and spend time program testing,  and look at results, test etc. Just writing this post took 30 mins.