WTI @ 67.50, charts show $62.50 next

[Rodent + 1,424]

1 hour ago, oilfutures said:

Are you saying there is one person who knows exactly where oil prices are going to be?

Jumping Jehoshaphat! I have many questions for this person 

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Yes. But it is not a person, it someone who created the person. Notice wti is now almost breaking 66, I mentioned this number many times, if this number is broken, there will be lots of blood in the sands. Soon instead of driving the semis to pick up the sand, you may need to bring a bucket and shovel and just play in the sand for a while. 

[oilfutures + 39]

I show it broke $66 yesterday though.  I assume if it cuts through $66 again then lots of blood in the  sand.  What do you mean by someone who created the person?  Like God?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Just an update before I go to walmart. The eur which before was at 1.1425 is now trading at 1.1380s as i mentioned, it would trade under 1.14.  The Dow is almost collapsing but it holding onto a shoelace, its right now at 25234. And oil seems like its going the wrong way towards 68, its must be confused. But it should gather its bearings soon. LIke i said earlier the only t

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Yes  the one and only. Ok so here is in a summary what is going on, why oil is dropping like put away the hocus pocus, smoke and mirrors and charts aside, ok. Lets talk reason we are all adults, many of us with some knowledge of how oil works. Why is oil dropping when it should be flying high. Why should oil by flying high? 

1] Oil should be flying high due to the sanctions to soon hit Iran in 11.2018.

But what is happening is, certain countries don't agree to the sanctions and will bypass it, not causing supply drain on oil.

Now what has Saudi done, they have pumped oil in expectation of the sanctions, so have ohters. Did they over pump, if so oil is headed down, to equalize the supply, its like basic math. Did they under produce? Most likely what market has done, is answered this basic question, man is not perfect. Including believe it or not opec. As such they overestimated the Iran sanctions, and now we have an over supply, as such 1 has to equal 1 and prices need to drop. Now it is possible that when the Iran sanctions  starts, their will be some kind of under supply and prices could see some rebound. I would say this drop in prices is temporary, but it will drop none the less. As you can see the truth is in the black pudding. This is really William's or Jan's specialty

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

9 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Yes  the one and only. Ok so here is in a summary what is going on, why oil is dropping like put away the hocus pocus, smoke and mirrors and charts aside, ok. Lets talk reason we are all adults, many of us with some knowledge of how oil works. Why is oil dropping when it should be flying high. Why should oil by flying high? 

1] Oil should be flying high due to the sanctions to soon hit Iran in 11.2018.

But what is happening is, certain countries don't agree to the sanctions and will bypass it, not causing supply drain on oil.

Now what has Saudi done, they have pumped oil in expectation of the sanctions, so have ohters. Did they over pump, if so oil is headed down, to equalize the supply, its like basic math. Did they under produce? Most likely what market has done, is answered this basic question, man is not perfect. Including believe it or not opec. As such they overestimated the Iran sanctions, and now we have an over supply, as such 1 has to equal 1 and prices need to drop. Now it is possible that when the Iran sanctions  starts, their will be some kind of under supply and prices could see some rebound. I would say this drop in prices is temporary, but it will drop none the less. As you can see the truth is in the black pudding. This is really William's or Jan's specialty

When the sanctions date comes, you can bet your bottom dollar that there will be a shortage, shouted out to anyone that will listen.  The only problem with their story will be that no one will have verified whether or not it is true.  And that is because truth does not matter, only prices!

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I think you will be proven right. The market won't be ready.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Just an update before I go to walmart. The eur which before was at 1.1425 is now trading at 1.1380s as i mentioned, it would trade under 1.14.  The Dow is almost collapsing but it holding onto a shoelace, its right now at 25234. And oil seems like its going the wrong way towards 68, its must be confused. But it should gather its bearings soon. LIke i said earlier the only t

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I dont know if i said this. But here is another simple reason fundamentally why oil is going down. Petrodollar, (fancy word, shows I know something outside the smoke and mirror stuff). AS you know when the us dollar goes up a lot, oil prices have to go down, it is not exactly how it works, but it is understood. This is just how it works, you see for europe who just lost 5 cents of their currency value, its very expensive now to buy oil in dollars, so the us reduces the price they charge so the eu should not lose a couple of extra billions. Turkey lost almost half of the currency value and almost ended back in the byzantine era, so the prices need to come down, so that country can afford to buy the oil.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I think you will be proven right. The market won't be ready.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Jump-As-Saudis-Cap-Oil-Supply.html this article which  says Saudi is capping the oil supply. Why? The overestimated Iran's effect and came to realization they did over supply, now the market needs to go down, since the Demand < Supply, and as usual when we have a glut of a new fad, say yoyos the prices of yoyos go down. Of course wer are not told there is an over supply, but the charts show that this is the little thing that happened and that is why oil took a left turn when it hit 70 - 71 and could not continue up higher. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So im just watching the oil prices in more detail in the UK session, now just crossed 66. Looks like the Tornado finally is showing itself, When they start the bloodbath, here are where as it goes down, it will take the exit and stop at a reststop before continuing further down the highway. After 66 breaks, the first rest stop will be 64, after that 62, so below my target and then it comes for a long rest stop at 59.xx. This would be devastating to producers but people filling up their cars wont be complaining.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

 

19 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

So im just watching the oil prices in more detail in the UK session, now just crossed 66. Looks like the Tornado finally is showing itself, When they start the bloodbath, here are where as it goes down, it will take the exit and stop at a reststop before continuing further down the highway. After 66 breaks, the first rest stop will be 64, after that 62, so below my target and then it comes for a long rest stop at 59.xx. This would be devastating to producers but people filling up their cars wont be complaining.

The Dow is still hanging around 25234.  Do you still see this moving down under 25k anytime soon?  I'd ask about the S&P 500, but so far I haven't seen you express interest in that index.  Anyway, if you have time it would be interesting to get your read on it because, at least for the last few weeks, it seems to track the Dow pretty closely.

Edited August 15, 2018 by Dan Warnick

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So in summary if you are some kind of big prouducer and you need to hedge your prices, there are 2 things to watch, assuming your chart skills are average. Watch the dollar index and the associated currencies as they plunge, that is the euro, the cable even the lira, if they continue to drop and the dollar index goes up, then oil prices should head down, I say should. Now if in fact the Sauds over supplied the market, and reporters sniff out that information, watch out below. What could stop the onslaught is if the sanctions affect the supply, and we later find out the sauds and opec over restricted the supply. Im just trying to remove the smoke and mirrors, so that the left brain can follow along. Predominantly I use my right brain to figure out things in the market, but this to most is more esoteric, though I call it an art.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Hi dan, like i said I dont watch the market much or the sp, but I will look at the dow and sp again to see what is going on, behind the scenes. Just remember that a top market analyst clearly believes that the market is going up, investors are expecting better earnings and money is coming into the market, so I am up against those kinds of views.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So let me say this about the dow first. I don't want to talk about monkeys, but speaking about monkeys, a monkey can see were headed to 23,500 so that would mean we still have 1500 point to go, now don't get me wrong I am not saying people who can't see this are not smart, its just that they can't. Just remember the market here is at 25230, so so far it has gone down more than 300 points since my first post about dow going down, and the dow is  getting supported heavily, so It is kind of heroic to say it will be breaking 25,000, but I am no hero just looking at the charts with my right brain. Now eventually at some point the market will easily hit 19950. That still is not a crash, but could be the beginning. So when you buy those futures  or options your timing needs to be good, and you should be able to be in the right direction. Will try and look at the sps too, no charge.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so about the sp, without going into to much detail, or fundamentals, sp now is at 2,831 in uk session, I see it hitting 2,500 with some bumps on the way down, as it will get supported, but for the immediate move 2,800 will soon be broken. probably today. I just wanted to tell you, I didnt even know where the sp was trading until i looked at this chart.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

18 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

So let me say this about the dow first. I don't want to talk about monkeys, but speaking about monkeys, a monkey can see were headed to 23,500 so that would mean we still have 1500 point to go, now don't get me wrong I am not saying people who can't see this are not smart, its just that they can't. Just remember the market here is at 25230, so so far it has gone down more than 300 points since my first post about dow going down, and the dow is  getting supported heavily, so It is kind of heroic to say it will be breaking 25,000, but I am no hero just looking at the charts with my right brain. Now eventually at some point the market will easily hit 19950. That still is not a crash, but could be the beginning. So when you buy those futures  or options your timing needs to be good, and you should be able to be in the right direction. Will try and look at the sps too, no charge.

A gentleman and a scholar!  Heh-he.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

12 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

so about the sp, without going into to much detail, or fundamentals, sp now is at 2,831 in uk session, I see it hitting 2,500 with some bumps on the way down, as it will get supported, but for the immediate move 2,800 will soon be broken. probably today. I just wanted to tell you, I didnt even know where the sp was trading until i looked at this chart.

Sounds good.  Remember, I am not basing my whole strategy on your thoughts and I do have an adviser, but it is really nice to have the opinion of another source, especially one that is skilled in the arts, such as yourself.  Thanks again.

[marcin lehmann + 1]

On 8/13/2018 at 4:42 PM, William Edwards said:

According to CNBC's reading of the OPEC Monthly Repor]rt, "This year, oil buyers will need about 600,000 fewer bpd from OPEC than it consumed in 2017. Demand for OPEC's oil is set to drop by another 800,000 bpd in 2019, according to the group." If OPEC has it right, supply will exceed demand for both 2018 and 2019. The fundamental supply/demand factors say "Plenty of oil". What do the speculators say?

Actually, 10-20% of the oil price results from speculations on the political risks. There's hardly strong influence of the pure supply and demand game. Aby technical analyses seem to collapse nowadays.

There 's only one, in my opinion, factor which may affect the price level but only in a shirt time: possible trade war between Saudis and Iran on Market share. Iran tries to pump much oil before Trump sanctions starte. Why short time? As after sanctions starte Saudis will get the extra Market share "for free" and stop being interested in any action to get more and more price decrease

Edited August 15, 2018 by marcin lehmann
Correction

[marcin lehmann + 1]

9 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

 

Quote: "But what is happening is, certain countries don't agree to the sanctions and will bypass it, not causing supply drain on oil."

In fact, the world hopes it will go thats way. Luckily, China declared to continue buying Iranian oil after Nov.2018. Also Europe is not in favor of saying Iran deserves more sanctions. And both are in some (trade) conflict with US due to US policy. Why should they, especially China, support Trump? It's more logical to stay against as they are not forced to follow. And saying against support their Market and also affect oil prices.

The other hand is what we see today: market\speculators overestimated the threat of sanctions and Power demand and now the correction takes place.

 

Edited August 15, 2018 by marcin lehmann
Correction

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Exactly my point marcin. The Saudis didnt expect that not all countries would abide by the sanctions. And therefore they have produced way to much oil, and now oil prices need to re-balance.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Looking at prices we have the Euro getting crushed, again oil prices right now wti is 66.20 and they will need to go down, so that for the europeans prices won't be high, same with turkey. But the pound is crashing too. So just want to mention that.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

On the dow, now at 25,139 so already dropped 100 points from my last post in the uk session, maybe the big players have been reading my posts, about the coming small correction in the market.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

WTI just broke 66 again. This is not good. This might be it, the tornado has just crashed through the glass building.And the chart is ready for the kil.