WTI @ 67.50, charts show $62.50 next

[ATK + 355]

45 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Right on all accounts.  I wish William was responding to posts because he has the best explanations about this phenom.  Basically, he says, and most agree, oil pricing is set by speculators, period.  Most of the news I read is exactly the opposite of what real world data would suggest, at least when it comes to the trading world.

Yeah I give up trying to make sense of all this, I trade USO and it's climbing like nobodies business right now. Probably going to lose money on my puts this week.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

4 minutes ago, ATK said:

Yeah I give up trying to make sense of all this, I trade USO and it's climbing like nobodies business right now. Probably going to lose money on my puts this week.

I believe the price move right now could be blamed on algos.  Shaking the shorts out before the necessary downward move.  Hard to take though, isn't it?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

If you like to see how a top is about ready to get demolished, I think it's always fun. If you look at the EURUSD, which is now at 1.1513, later you will see it at 1.149x and slowly getting destroyed. How do I know this? Who told me? Just watch.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Just now, Top Oil Trader said:

If you like to see how a top is about ready to get demolished, I think it's always fun. If you look at the EURUSD, which is now at 1.1513, later you will see it at 1.149x and slowly getting destroyed. How do I know this? Who told me? Just watch.

What is a good website to watch at?

[ATK + 355]

8 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

I believe the price move right now could be blamed on algos.  Shaking the shorts out before the necessary downward move.  Hard to take though, isn't it?

Your probably right about this, same thing happened last week before EIA estimates. The crazy thing is USO is much higher now than it was yesterday even though WTI crude is below its closing price from yesterday 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Here is a website with a live chart

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

This chart is basically saying the following. Look! If you don't short me now, I will never ever speak to you again!

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

5 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

This chart is basically saying the following. Look! If you don't short me now, I will never ever speak to you again!

And yet the commenters there are mostly saying it's going up.  Can't they read english?  LOL

"This chart is basically saying the following. Look! If you don't short me now, I will never ever speak to you again!"

Edited August 21, 2018 by Dan Warnick

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

For oil, it just hit me: they are going to tout the U.S. is releasing the SPR because of shortages!  Man, they truly have no shame, if that's what they end up saying.  Wait a minute, they don't have any shame, so why would I expect anything else?

[ATK + 355]

3 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

For oil, it just hit me: they are going to tout the U.S. is releasing the SPR because of shortages!  Man, they truly have no shame, if that's what they end up saying.  Wait a minute, they don't have any shame, so why would I expect anything else?

The media is definitely trying to push a narrative, last week they said because the Saudi's  were "capping production" that it would translate to a draw down last week. Not only were they wrong, but extremely wrong, most of the oil analysts don't seem to have a clue what's going on

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 minute ago, ATK said:

The media is definitely trying to push a narrative, last week they said because the Saudi's  were "capping production" that it would translate to a draw down last week. Not only were they wrong, but extremely wrong, most of the oil analysts don't seem to have a clue what's going on

Actually, I think they know exactly what's going on.

[ATK + 355]

1 minute ago, Dan Warnick said:

Actually, I think they know exactly what's going on.

Haha very true, super easy to mislead people, especially when most news sources are owned by the same handful of people

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Yes they need to control the price so it doesn't tank. Right now there is a big glut of oil, due to miscalculation of the Iran sanctions. If they can consume all that glut quick before there is a panic, they can keep oil prics up, while quickly trying to reduce the supply, which opec is now trying to do as quick as possible. Opec seems to always miscalculate, to me, im my humble opinion I think OPEC should change their name to ...

OHECK.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

3 hours ago, NickW said:

Have you thought about applying to Maduro about being his new Finance / Energy Minister?

 

According to this Anti Wind website Ontario pays 11-13.5c /kwh for wind (not 80)

http://www.windontario.ca/

 

I give up.  When I start getting compared to Maduro I know that I am not being clear.  That tells me that I am writing into a vacuum. 

As far as the pricing on industrial wind, I am telling you, once again, that Premier Wynne took personal control of the industrial wind and industrial solar contracting in order to dramatically expand "renewable," but does not treat hydro as renewable (yes, it is unfathomable, but there it is), and she signed power-purchase contracts at 80.1 cents/kwh.  OK, so there are other contracts for less, but that shows you just how extreme the mantra crowd will go.  Since you don't believe it, I give up.  As far as buying power from HydroQuebec, while totally logical, you overlook the antipathy of the French versus the English, and v.v., that has been going on sine the battle on the Plains of Abraham in Quebec City.  The Conservative government of Ontario is not going to do that, in part because of the capital costs of installing new wire, and in part because they will buy oil from Alberta first, Alberta is not part of the Ottawa Liberal Government.  The politics will always beat out the economic imperatives, that is the way Canada works, and will always work.  Meanwhile, since nobody seems to want to either believe it or even consider it, I give up.  You guys figure it out.  Cheers.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

OK the EUR is playing hard to get, it did a 15 point on me, but, this is expected the New York session, is so volatile, that it makes a Cat 5 Tornado, look like a breeze.

[ATK + 355]

12 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Yes they need to control the price so it doesn't tank. Right now there is a big glut of oil, due to miscalculation of the Iran sanctions. If they can consume all that glut quick before there is a panic, they can keep oil prics up, while quickly trying to reduce the supply, which opec is now trying to do as quick as possible. Opec seems to always miscalculate, to me, im my humble opinion I think OPEC should change their name to ...

OHECK.

Haha OHECK is a good one, but yeah it's like: "Prices low? Don't worry Iranian sanctions ! Prices high? Iranian sanctions! Prices stagnant? Not for long you know why? You guessed it Iranian sanctions!" Meanwhile drillers are just humming along because all they hear all the time is how Iranian sanctions are going to keep prices afloat.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

12 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

I give up.  When I start getting compared to Maduro I know that I am not being clear.  That tells me that I am writing into a vacuum. 

As far as the pricing on industrial wind, I am telling you, once again, that Premier Wynne took personal control of the industrial wind and industrial solar contracting in order to dramatically expand "renewable," but does not treat hydro as renewable (yes, it is unfathomable, but there it is), and she signed power-purchase contracts at 80.1 cents/kwh.  OK, so there are other contracts for less, but that shows you just how extreme the mantra crowd will go.  Since you don't believe it, I give up.  As far as buying power from HydroQuebec, while totally logical, you overlook the antipathy of the French versus the English, and v.v., that has been going on sine the battle on the Plains of Abraham in Quebec City.  The Conservative government of Ontario is not going to do that, in part because of the capital costs of installing new wire, and in part because they will buy oil from Alberta first, Alberta is not part of the Ottawa Liberal Government.  The politics will always beat out the economic imperatives, that is the way Canada works, and will always work.  Meanwhile, since nobody seems to want to either believe it or even consider it, I give up.  You guys figure it out.  Cheers.

Easy now, NickW.  Jan is not known for pulling his facts out of a hat.  Rarely are the prices on a website the same as what can be negotiated, wouldn't you agree?

[ATK + 355]

1 hour ago, ATK said:

Your probably right about this, same thing happened last week before EIA estimates. The crazy thing is USO is much higher now than it was yesterday even though WTI crude is below its closing price from yesterday 

Big divide between price's with USO and USOIL, USOIL basically retraced it's gains from yesterday (currently sitting around $66.00) where USO is sitting about 20 cents higher than its open yesterday. Wondering where the disconnect is coming from.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Attention all Californians! 

If you live in California and have not been carjacked, or beaten up for not stopping at a traffic stop, or been imprisoned for drinking a soda with a straw, or not having your house burned by fire, or beaten up by a motor cycle gang,  etc etc... you should move to higher ground now, 

53 Major Earthquakes Just Hit The Ring Of Fire In A 24 Hour Period

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Preparation H cures what ails you!  Do you have a chart for the end of the world?

[sirbinington + 3]

Does everyone here have a bearish stance on crude? I'm curious because I see prices moving over 80$ short to mid term. The Saudis pretty much came out and said they wouldn't let the price fall below $60 so all it takes is for one catalyst to move it much higher. 

[ATK + 355]

14 minutes ago, sirbinington said:

Does everyone here have a bearish stance on crude? I'm curious because I see prices moving over 80$ short to mid term. The Saudis pretty much came out and said they wouldn't let the price fall below $60 so all it takes is for one catalyst to move it much higher. 

We are bearish for the immediate short term, most of the bullish sentiment is either speculative or months from playing out. The Saudi's also said they cut back production by 200,000 barrels when many outside sources claim they only dropped 50,000 so I don't know if their word is the best thing to go off of. I honestly attribute most of the current price rise to a drop in the dollars strength. That being said I do expect the price of oil to rebound, just a few weeks out though and not right now.

 

Also keep in mind that is brent crude prices, not WTI crude

Edited August 21, 2018 by ATK

[sirbinington + 3]

fair enough. I just don't believe the oil markets are governed by supply and demand unfortunately. I'm sure those outside sources are right but it won't matter in my opinion. They are going to continue to manipulate the price until they take it too far just as they have done in the past. Hopefully they stop short of 100 this time or we are going to have trouble...

[ATK + 355]

4 minutes ago, sirbinington said:

fair enough. I just don't believe the oil markets are governed by supply and demand unfortunately. I'm sure those outside sources are right but it won't matter in my opinion. They are going to continue to manipulate the price until they take it too far just as they have done in the past. Hopefully they stop short of 100 this time or we are going to have trouble...

Speculation only goes so far, it has an impact on future prices, but for the immediate short term, it's hard to put a bullish spin on inventory builds and hard numbers from weekly reports

Go back and look at last week's headlines in regards to EIA's reports. Many were "surprised" by the the surplus because again speculation can only take you so far

Edited August 21, 2018 by ATK

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

2 minutes ago, sirbinington said:

fair enough. I just don't believe the oil markets are governed by supply and demand unfortunately. I'm sure those outside sources are right but it won't matter in my opinion. They are going to continue to manipulate the price until they take it too far just as they have done in the past. Hopefully they stop short of 100 this time or we are going to have trouble...

The oil markets are driven by trader speculators, and the speculators are driven by greed and fear. 

Supply and consumption are ALWAYS in equilibrium.  That is definitional.