WTI @ 67.50, charts show $62.50 next

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

repeat

Edited August 17, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

repeat

Edited August 17, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

today on dow i see a big downmove. Key is if it can hold below 25,000

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

had to close the dow short at 2 points profit, it looks like it want to go up

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

6 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

had to close the dow short at 2 points profit, it looks like it want to go up

Looks like a good idea.  I think they want a rally.  I might close my S&P.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

repeat

Edited August 17, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Been lots of problems with the posts, as it sends text from a prior post before i even post, trying to clean the pc and watch the posts very carefully so i dont get any unwanted text sneak in, from somewhere.  looks like it didnt this time.

But Dan, you see if you look at forex, you see lots of nice ups and down, and some actually make sense, in the dow, Yes i can see the dips, and i need a little more research to see when a dip is good, but for now it clear that all dips are quickly absorbed by the bulls, for now. However, to watch when the market makes its big downturn is a waste of time, the way i look at charts, only thing i can do, is predict moves of maybe 100 - 600 points, for now. Right now it looks like the want to move the market up, well from 25,000, would say they are trying to go for close to 30,000

I didn't expect a complete collapse of the market just a nice selloff, but it got stopped quickly after a 500 point drop.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Been lots of problems with the posts, as it sends text from a prior post before i even post, trying to clean the pc and watch the posts very carefully so i dont get any unwanted text sneak in, from somewhere.  looks like it didnt this time.

But Dan, you see if you look at forex, you see lots of nice ups and down, and some actually make sense, in the dow, Yes i can see the dips, and i need a little more research to see when a dip is good, but for now it clear that all dips are quickly absorbed by the bulls, for now. However, to watch when the market makes its big downturn is a waste of time, the way i look at charts, only thing i can do, is predict moves of maybe 100 - 600 points, for now. Right now it looks like the want to move the market up, well from 25,000, would say they are trying to go for close to 30,000

I didn't expect a complete collapse of the market just a nice selloff, but it got stopped quickly after a 500 point drop.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

6 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Been lots of problems with the posts, as it sends text from a prior post before i even post, trying to clean the pc and watch the posts very carefully so i dont get any unwanted text sneak in, from somewhere.  looks like it didnt this time.

But Dan, you see if you look at forex, you see lots of nice ups and down, and some actually make sense, in the dow, Yes i can see the dips, and i need a little more research to see when a dip is good, but for now it clear that all dips are quickly absorbed by the bulls, for now. However, to watch when the market makes its big downturn is a waste of time, the way i look at charts, only thing i can do, is predict moves of maybe 100 - 600 points, for now. Right now it looks like the want to move the market up, well from 25,000, would say they are trying to go for close to 30,000

I didn't expect a complete collapse of the market just a nice selloff, but it got stopped quickly after a 500 point drop.

Tom or CMOP should be able to assist with the reposting of previous message problem you are having.  If they don't reply to this message I will reach out to them for you.

When you go to enter a new comment, there is a highlighted link that says something like "clear previous text" or something like that.

Edited August 17, 2018 by Dan Warnick

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

you see i guess where i am best or from my experience is in swing trading. Yes i did predict the 2008 crash in 2007 to many investors, but, I was looking for that, for that i need to look at crazy charts weekly. For the dow to find its apex, i need to do some heavy research and look at some crazy stuff, most of the time the traders i am involved with are in and out daily, and my mind trends towards that subconsciously. I am not patient so usually cant wait 2 months for a trade to work out.. But the rewards are of course much greater, if you could have predicted that oil was going up from 30 to 75, than from 75 to 62, or in my case 58. So forexample, the cable and the eur have been going up all week, but in fact they are in big trouble and will soon head down, cable is at 1.2739 eur at 1.1416, but could easily fall 100 points, nothing great but for 100% of traders in currencies that is a great trade. However, had you shorted the eur at 1.23 and still kept it that is a 1000 point move, but that move took months, way beyond the patience level of most traders.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

4 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

you see i guess where i am best or from my experience is in swing trading. Yes i did predict the 2008 crash in 2007 to many investors, but, I was looking for that, for that i need to look at crazy charts weekly. For the dow to find its apex, i need to do some heavy research and look at some crazy stuff, most of the time the traders i am involved with are in and out daily, and my mind trends towards that subconsciously. I am not patient so usually cant wait 2 months for a trade to work out.. But the rewards are of course much greater, if you could have predicted that oil was going up from 30 to 75, than from 75 to 62, or in my case 58. So forexample, the cable and the eur have been going up all week, but in fact they are in big trouble and will soon head down, cable is at 1.2739 eur at 1.1416, but could easily fall 100 points, nothing great but for 100% of traders in currencies that is a great trade. However, had you shorted the eur at 1.23 and still kept it that is a 1000 point move, but that move took months, way beyond the patience level of most traders.

Interesting, because the 2008 crash absolutely began in 2007, but very few people could see it beginning and the media told everyone it was just healthy small corrections, etc.  Good call.

I like to trade on options contracts, so I can get control of more shares at a cheaper price, and then I use vertical spreads to further lower the cost and, most importantly, the risk.  Once I build up my cash balance, assuming that I will, then I can expand upon this.

I don't even know how to trade forex, yet.  That's ok though, because I don't want to use my cash to learn, or lose until I start to understand what I'm doing.  Better stay away from that for now.

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

52 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Looks like a good idea.  I think they want a rally.  I might close my S&P.

Closed out my S&P position with a small loss.  That contract had the shortest expiry of my positions and so I didn't like holding it if the market is going to go against me in a big way.  The more the market goes against, it usually takes more time to recover, and 2 months might not be enough.  Good riddance.  Now I can think about taking a short position on an oil etf.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So what is the beauty of forex, hardly anyone makes it, so you have no competition. One dude who was writing a forex trend forecasting news letter in the 80 ended up trading 14 billion, why? noone has a clue in forex. So there was noone to go to except for him. In stocks u simply go long in a bull market and short in ...But it does not work as volatile as forex. Forex is more mathematical, whereas stock market is more fundamental especially when having quantitative easing, in fx there hardly are any qes, But most traders are attracted to fx, cause of the low margins, so they come from the aspect of greed, and there is a saying, the bulls make money, the bears make money, and the pigs get slaughtered. So therefore if you can trade forex, not as a greedy trader looking for a quick move, so let say using true tried methods, you have a good chance. But the temptations are so big, and without any discipline most end up failing. So to predict the end of the stock market you can look at the regular daily trading or the views of analysts.
 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

But here is a trick when you know the bull market is over. So when your driver is giving you stock tips, that is the time to at least get out.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

5 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

So what is the beauty of forex, hardly anyone makes it, so you have no competition. One dude who was writing a forex trend forecasting news letter in the 80 ended up trading 14 billion, why? noone has a clue in forex. So there was noone to go to except for him. In stocks u simply go long in a bull market and short in ...But it does not work as volatile as forex. Forex is more mathematical, whereas stock market is more fundamental especially when having quantitative easing, in fx there hardly are any qes, But most traders are attracted to fx, cause of the low margins, so they come from the aspect of greed, and there is a saying, the bulls make money, the bears make money, and the pigs get slaughtered. So therefore if you can trade forex, not as a greedy trader looking for a quick move, so let say using true tried methods, you have a good chance. But the temptations are so big, and without any discipline most end up failing. So to predict the end of the stock market you can look at the regular daily trading or the views of analysts.
 

It sounds like trading that I would like to do, but I have zero experience.  The account I'm using also doesn't allow me to day trade, so I have to restrict myself to holding any trade at least until the next trading day.

[Robert Ziegler + 121]

So what is the view on the oil price correction, are we still heading further down short term, or have the bulls won for now?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well if you could learn how to trade, and keep your ego at check and not worry about making mistakes, assuming your odds are in your favour, it would be a dream for most. But most who try, don't find it to much fun.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well, a wild week. from the looks of it, the dow stopped it's selloff with a vengeance. Oil is still confused, but looks like its headed down in the long run, it stopped going down though, i think the reason being the the dollar sold off a bit, causing some currencies to go back up a bit., looks like $ will re correct a bit more, which would mean (from what i see), that oil could start next week going up, maybe even above 66. Once good news comes out of the the us and the possibilities of more rates hikes, the $ could go back up, and wti back down. I hear lots of people who like to day trade, do me a favor don't, it's a hard lonely journey. I would say it's similar to climbing Mount Everest alone, and without breathing support.

[catch22 + 244]

On 8/13/2018 at 11:34 PM, catch22 said:

What a day we had today in the asian trading session! Started very much as risk off trading with all risk currencies lower, all equity indexes lower and the only assets moving higher were francs, yen, and the USD. Thats now halted now were into the wall street session, volatility is extreme tho.

 

On the other hand, Oil had a very uneventful day, rather boring in fact! Since when is oil less volatile than the forex currency markets?! It is finally Starting a move lower now it seems tho. The fact oil wasnt dumped earlier with all the other risky assets is a bit of a mystery, even with the sudden high break of the petrodollar. im sure we will see some action if and when the USD looses or gains some more direction. ALL the news on turkey etc seems to have perhaps shifted the focus away from oil markets and doubts over iran and Russia and the caspian sea? But for how long?

 

There was some previous support around 66.5 level from the previous range trading. If it can break below that it may gather downward momentum...

Ill quote myself above from post #2 in this thread from the beginning of the week - pretty much panned out exactly as i said, once it broke 66.5 it went south into 64 territory. I wish i had the conviction to have shorted it then but i was focused on forex for the week instead and had a great week on it anyway so didnt really look at oil.

All the fuss over Turkey has subsided in the market - but watch this space as it absolutely MUST happen again - Turkeys mismanagement of their economy hasnt changed and they are big trouble - their sovereign debt problem has been a long time in the making and hasnt gone away, only the hype around it did, and things are still getting worse for them. Next time i get a wiff of bad media coverage on their complete inability to repay their debts and bring in the IMF bailout etc-  im gonna short the Turkish Lira in big way...

Friday we saw a profit taking session after a really positive week for the USD index or petrodollar. The inverse relationship it has with the oil price means we also saw a modest rise in the oil price late in the week from the preceding days lows. If the USD index continues its march upward next week (very possible) we will no doubt see further downward movement in oil - it should go lower than it was this week just passed, previous resistance lies around 64.4. WT crude may hold support there, OR, if the USD really continues its march north and really starts flying high, oil should breakdown lower to 63 - 62 area. This is of course sans any unnerving geopolitical or supply problems surrounding the oil market.

Alternatively, if the USD cant hold support from fridays pullback - we should see a return to prices we saw in the week before this one just gone - back to the 66.5 - 69.9 support/resistance range. This return however - has a much lower probability of occurring compared with the continued downward movement. The technical analysis seems to point to a ~70% chance of going down...

Thats my 2c

DW - trading forex isnt really anything dramatically different to trading options. I used to trade options also - different names and slightly different mechanics, and of course different reasons for price movement, but essentially its the same thing whereby an instrument such as "stock option" or a "CFD" for forex currency pairs, gives you a leveraged instrument to trade against the underlying asset. By using leverage, bigger risk, bigger gains, bigger losses per $ invested. Once you learn what factors affect the forex market - basically economic information pertaining to both countries of the currency pair - you can make informed decisions about where the market might be going and trade a position on that information accordingly. This is why i dont like oil so much yet - some of the price movements are very erratic and seem to occur without reason. I don feel confident trading it with highly leveraged instruments yet as even small errartic movements which seem to happen on a daily basis with oil - can stop you out in a heartbeat. Its just too volatile to short term trade with leveraged instruments. Longer term trades are probably an easier option, but to do that you cant use even modest leverage without taking shed loads of risk...

 

Edited August 18, 2018 by catch22

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

14 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Well if you could learn how to trade, and keep your ego at check and not worry about making mistakes, assuming your odds are in your favour, it would be a dream for most. But most who try, don't find it to much fun.

I can learn, my ego has learned to check itself (sound of hammer, repeating) and I don't sweat the small stuff.  Check.  LOL!

Moody's downgraded Turkey's debt after the end of trading on Friday.  Should be interesting to those of you trading forex, whether you already factored it into your trades or it doesn't mean anything other than adding to your existing sentiment, here it is:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-currency-ratings-moody-s/moodys-downgrades-turkey-to-ba3-assigns-negative-outlook-idUSKBN1L2286

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Lira is in free fall. Now that they are going to punish the us with tariffs, the lira will just keep falling.

 

The biggest factors that cause day traders to lose y 95% of the time are many. 

1] Many are trading addicts they don't know when to stop, for them trading is like being in vegas.

2] Greedy.

3] If they have a system, they overrule it during trading.

4] No discipline.

5] Can't control their emotions.

6] They don't have a good system.

7] many more..

If a traders has one of the above, they will never in a billion years become successful, most traders have most of  the above traits and have no clue.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Oil Trade Idea.

Regarding oil prices. I see WTI go to the 62.50 target, give or take,  then ranging for some weeks/months and then slowly moving back up. Will be a very hard market to trade. 62.5 was my original target when i first saw oil at 75.xx. The max drop I see is oil maybe hitting the upper 50s.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

As regarding the stock market, since the last selloff i saw only lasted about 600 points. I see the market going up at least to its yearly high. And there is no more reason to analyze it, will be a waste of time.

Oil too is a waste of time, since it can fall a couple more dollars, and then range.

 

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

52 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

As regarding the stock market, since the last selloff i saw only lasted about 600 points. I see the market going up at least to its yearly high. And there is no more reason to analyze it, will be a waste of time.

Oil too is a waste of time, since it can fall a couple more dollars, and then range.

 

 

On the stock market, I agree, they want one more rally before the mid-terms, which I have been advised has been the norm in the past.  Then they will wait for a major excuse/event, before/during/soon after the elections to bring it down hard.  More correctly, they won't be able to prop it up any longer.  We'll see.

For oil, you think it will go down another couple of bucks and then range for a while.  Ok, also agree with this, but I think our dear leader may do something to drive the price down prior to elections to get the gas prices down so he and the party can claim victory to the base.  Could be the strategic reserve if it doesn't come down by itself.  But with everyone he's pissing off, who knows what any one of many players may throw our way in the coming months, resulting in an uncontrollable rise in prices.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Not really, Pres. Trump knows if prices go down too far, produces especially small ones will go bankrupt. Reducing prices is not up to the govt. unless they floor the market with sprs. He needs to please the consumer, but not at the expense of the corporations. The breakeven for shale more or less is $50. Based on my charts, 50s ranges for now is the lowest they will go, before going back up, towards 80s.