WTI @ 67.50, charts show $62.50 next

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Ok.  My planned profit is much higher, but has not materialized, er, yet!

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Ok i started with an account and backtested it, for a long time, it looks at what i want it to look for, to go short or long. And what i want it to look for to exit. Basically this is what i use now. Not this is backtested i forget how many years back, but i will try lets say and do it from 2015. So these will be trades i would have done on that data for those 3 years. so this one im starting from 7/29/15 - present. hold take some time, then i need to cut the graph and post it.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so  again running with 10k acct for about 4 years trading 1 contract.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

https://postimg.cc/image/7lk5yldnh/ of course if i do this with real money due to slippage unforeseen volatility and others,  and such i may not get the same results. One thing for sure it may not be this  exact roi, but somewhere in that ball park.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

hope it is now a little clearer than mud

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

WTI is back to 66.14

Take a look at it and see what you think might happen in the next day or two?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Like I said, my contracts are out to January 2019, so I can wait for results, but I like results sooner than later, you know?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

This is very difficult to do, and i think my pc will die out soon, since i keep on hearing the fan go on when i do these complex calculations on that much data.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

2019 thats good u may just make it.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

This is very difficult to do, and i think my pc will die out soon, since i keep on hearing the fan go on when i do these complex calculations on that much data.

I got 2 new MSI laptops about a year ago.  One loaded to the gills and one, not so much.  The one that had not so much was really just lacking a good SSD.  The fan was always going like crazy to keep the heat down, and then the laptop of course slowed down as well.  Got a new 512GB Samsung SSD, installed it myself, and all is good in the world now.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Firmware and Bios updates helped as well.  They addressed under par fan scheduling in the updates.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Maybe will have to come over and run my stuff on yours then. I mean i have literally run 1000s of models since Sunday. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Just now, Top Oil Trader said:

Maybe will have to come over and run my stuff on yours then. I mean i have literally run 1000s of models since Sunday. 

Ok.  I'll pick you up in Bangkok!  LOL!

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

For the price of those tickets, you could buy new laptops yourself.  Ha-ha!

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So now looking at oil using about the same model i use now to run all these tests. Long term there for sure is not trade, it shows heading down. Intraday we see confluence, confusion, very hard tries to go up, but it lacks conviction. In other words the up moves are like watching  a high school play by esl students. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

And eur has all the indications at 1.1571 that later it will fall violently. speaking of the eur let me just look at the dow. I think i said it looked problematic earlier, and indeed, temporary top could be forming. The turn up from 25,000 looks forced, like a zombie move, the internals of this up move looks empty. you might say here or 25800 is where it may run out of steam. 

[catch22 + 244]

Just a heads up, there seems to be a sudden move in the currency markets again - there is some strong buying of the US dollar again after the last several days have seen it slide back down to where it was before the bulls charged in. Referring to the DXY or USD index, this is happenning again just now and it should translate into negative pressure on oil again. The question i cant answer - is how strong the buying will be this time - we may see new highs or it could stall out again - which would also mean a double top and possible larger move down by the USD. But the direction may have just turned...

Like a said a few days ago - if the dollar doesnt hold support, oil goes back to its old range, anyone remember that?

So If you want to look for direction of oil - i strongly urge you to look at the DXY or USD index. This is what im using to predict where oil will go not withstanding major geopolitical or supply and demand shocks of course.

So you can use the forex markets for a bit of help in predicting where oil (and other things) will trade...

 

 

[catch22 + 244]

the USD its now sitting at a pivotal moment still right on the psychological level of 95.0. I have a feeling we will see action on the NY session open...

The buying i saw earlier in the day seemed to be some large positions trying to slowly edge their positions into the market - slowly so as not to have a dramatic effect on the price by their activity... There were some large positions  that were taken in stages... perhaps they know something is up?

Edited August 22, 2018 by catch22

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well looks like they are bringing oil up, looks like 63 was it for now.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Dow got some problems up here, not sure if they can prevent it from falling.

[ATK + 355]

3 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Well looks like they are bringing oil up, looks like 63 was it for now.

Think it was closer to 64, but I really don't think there is a "they" I just think it's simple supply and demand fundementals that's driving this. I said yesterday that speculation works for future trades but when your time line is much shorter (this week) it comes down to fundementals because the uncertainty is greatly reduced giving little room for speculation on price.

I think with oil when it comes to TA, one needs to look at what the upside and downside would be depending on crude builds/draws 

TA tells you what is happening and not the Why, often times the cart gets put ahead of the horse 

Edited August 22, 2018 by ATK

[ATK + 355]

Bitcoin is probably the only thing I know that trades largely on TA alone

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Yes, they is they that want want oil to be up, they is the producers, oil brokers, opec etc.

[ATK + 355]

39 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Yes, they is they that want want oil to be up, they is the producers, oil brokers, opec etc.

I mean that can be said about almost anything, but I see a lot of people trying to justify moves based off of TA alone and not look at the reason why it might be moving the way it does based off of fundamentals.  

Prices don't move because of lines on a graph, lines on a graph change based off of what is happening.

The only asset I found that moves based off of solely TA is bitcoin, because it is almost purely speculative 

I suggest anyone trading oil on shorter timeframes rely on fundmentals and only use TA to find potential entries and exits 

Edited August 22, 2018 by ATK

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well this is the classic random walk question. Indeed news stories can be seen in charts way before the news comes out. Yes it is hard to forecast very far out using intradays, but a day or 2 before my charts always give me an FYI

Edited August 22, 2018 by Top Oil Trader