WTI @ 67.50, charts show $62.50 next

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Well this is the classic random walk question. Indeed news stories can be seen in charts way before the news comes out. Yes it is hard to forecast very far out using intradays, but a day or 2 before my charts always give me an FYI

Your Dow prediction is holding pretty close so far.  Oil shot up 2 bucks today, but I think it will come back down pretty quickly after this false headline about crude inventories dropping dies down.  Bloomberg has one headline that crude inventories dropped and then they have another headline (with incredulous tone) that gas inventories are very high as end of summer driving demand is going down as usual.  What do you think?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Before this news came out i did say in the wee hours it looks like oil wont go down anymore and go back up, i didnt know about the news comming out.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Now lets say ta does not work. Yes i do agree that indeed for most 95% it doesn't work. Then explain this I have run 100s of simulations now where i take a 2k acct in forex, and through automatic trades, the accts reaches 15k more or less in 3 years. So lets say I blow up 1 acct it is possible due to some major shock on the instrument so i blow 2k. but so far its  rare for an acct to blow up, based on my strats but even if it happens. So i take 10k, create 5 accts each with 2k. Run them for 3 years, 1 may blow up, the other 4 gets me 15k. that is total acct value 60k - 2k loss. so not bad, and i can do this now in my sleep, this way i dont need to 2nd guess, if im right or not. These strats dont factor news in at all.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

this last one i just ran 13.5 k net in 3 years on 2k acct with 13% max draw down.

[oilfutures + 39]

2 hours ago, ATK said:

I mean that can be said about almost anything, but I see a lot of people trying to justify moves based off of TA alone and not look at the reason why it might be moving the way it does based off of fundamentals.  

Prices don't move because of lines on a graph, lines on a graph change based off of what is happening.

The only asset I found that moves based off of solely TA is bitcoin, because it is almost purely speculative 

I suggest anyone trading oil on shorter timeframes rely on fundmentals and only use TA to find potential entries and exits 

Elliott Wave traders are exactly this and want to believe news events do not impact price.  They believe everything follows a 5 wave cycle; however, when those 5 waves do not end up filling out they call it truncated.  The reality is they are rarely even 50/50, it just does not work. I've heard a good saying that fundamentals will screw up any chart. 

Edited August 22, 2018 by oilfutures

[ATK + 355]

1 hour ago, Dan Warnick said:

Your Dow prediction is holding pretty close so far.  Oil shot up 2 bucks today, but I think it will come back down pretty quickly after this false headline about crude inventories dropping dies down.  Bloomberg has one headline that crude inventories dropped and then they have another headline (with incredulous tone) that gas inventories are very high as end of summer driving demand is going down as usual.  What do you think?

This was actually caused by API's estimate of a 5.18 million barrel draw and EIA's report today confirmed it.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I believe i said we would hit 25880 and then i foresaw a plunge. Correct me if im wrong, i can never find my prev posts. So far looks like dow is down 200, that is now a plunge, but, like they say on wall street, "every plunge starts small, without any warning", just made that up.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

As for oil still look strong. Once it crossed 65 then went down, and then went back up, that was it. I still see it in immediate term going up. I ma not trading oil have not for almost 2 months. I guess I lost interest, even the charts really look clumsy.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Man i am so dyslexic, if i dont read my posts and fix them, it shows.Speaking about the eur, after having that badly timed short which now is only a loss of 50 pips (points), I have tried to be a little less jumpy, and when the emotions come in, try to recall that actually i have a system, i am supposed to follow, no matter how high my blood pressure goes.

[ATK + 355]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

As for oil still look strong. Once it crossed 65 then went down, and then went back up, that was it. I still see it in immediate term going up. I ma not trading oil have not for almost 2 months. I guess I lost interest, even the charts really look clumsy.

Fundementals will do that to a chart

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

fundamentals came in after oil hit 67 my friend

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Since it looks looks like oil is very ranging, I like to enter a market in oil or stocks when it hits a low or  some kind of peak, since oil is in mid range it is getting boring. So will switch to the market and stocks.See you on the other side.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

In the market thread i added that a drop of 800 points of so is imminent. May even happen on 8-24-18 and then another drop on Monday 8-27-18. As youve seen before i am not predicting the crash, but simply a minor correction. Indeed if the market perceives that trump will get impeached cause of Omarossa, the market could tank.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

WTI as stated couple of days ago is going the action at 65 gave it away, i see based on charts 70s getting taken out, next couple of days, but too early to tell if 80s will be broken, however 75 in the works.

Edited August 24, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So i have been told by unamed people not just here, but many places, especially by smart New Yorkers, who work for the big banks. Fundamentals drives prices not smoke and  mirrors as they like to technicals So here is the fundamental news that will cause the market to sell off. Keep in mind if Pres. Trump gets impeached the market will tank, but he won't that is my view. However, someone from his family will, (ill let you guess), and when that member does, the market will selloff, fearing that Trump could be next. Ok so for the people who need fundamentals to drive the market, here is the fundamental news slightly ahead of the market correction.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I dont look much at stocks, but Im sure it will be easy to trade, I would swing trade it, not trade stocks for 30 cents like lots of day traders do.. So I will start with a stock I know well, have all their products. So AAPL right now is 215, i see it dropping 10% back to 200.

[Epic + 390]

On 8/22/2018 at 3:25 PM, Dan Warnick said:

Your Dow prediction is holding pretty close so far. 

^Which Dow prediction was that?  Surely not this one:  

I guess if one is allowed to make enough predictions, one is bound to get it right eventually.  

On 8/22/2018 at 4:12 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

Now lets say ta does not work.

In my opinion, TA works 50% of the time.  The problem with something working only 50% of the time is that you lose all of your money.  For example: if I start with $100 and make 50%, I am at $150.  Then if I lose 50%, I am now at $75.  If you repeat this process enough times, you end up with $0.  To make any money, you have to be correct at least 51% of the time.  Only 49% of the people with cash accounts can do that.  So, if you have a cash account, you can probably trade and make some money if you know more than the average investor (and you don't pay anything in commission).  But there is a problem with that: first, most trades do pay commissions, and second, most traders don't use cash accounts.  They like to use the forex or futures contracts.  When using that kind of leverage, you don't just have to be right 51% of the time, you have to be right 100% of the time.  That is a lot more difficult (read: impossible).  Due to the increased leverage found in the forex and futures, if the trade goes badly against you, you can lose it all on that single trade.  It is not a matter of if, but when.  I remember reading about a guy who had been shorting the vix.  He had been doing it for years, and every year he was posting 100% gains.  He made millions for himself and his entire extended family...then February 2018 hit, and in 1 day on 1 trade he lost 100%.  He was only wrong once.  

I'm wrong a lot. 

If you want to safely make money in the market, all you really need is a monkey and some poo.  It is called the "fling" method:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey-can-beat-the-market/

Why does the monkey-poo method work?  Because you buy and hold.  

-My 2 cents

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

You have overestimated how often technical analysis works for traders. I would say try and listen to the top analysts who are certified to use analysis and write books and articles and you'll see that are part of the people with no clue.

Actually CC technicals for most people only works 5% of the time. So the trick is to know how to use it better than 95% of traders. This is why other people say technical analysis is just random numbers on the chart, or as i refer to it chaos. However, it is possible to make sense out of chaos, but you would indeed need to know how to use it, so many variations and combinations its endless, you may as well pick a number out of the hat. There is a dude called Meir Barak, ive seen this dude make 10k in like 10 min, just using charts.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Just to maybe not show off really, but to prove my point. This  chart is based on trading 1 currency, starting with a $2,000 account over 3 years, trading 1 contract only, not realistic since you would need a higher account, but none the less i just wanted to show that the 2,000 did not blow up during this whole period in this test i used data from last 3 years.

 

Like i said about the dow, i dont know the date that there will be a big plunge in the dow, or when it crashes, can only look for immediate plunges. Most of my trading is trying to figure out nice moves, up or down.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

5 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

In the market thread i added that a drop of 800 points of so is imminent. May even happen on 8-24-18 and then another drop on Monday 8-27-18. As youve seen before i am not predicting the crash, but simply a minor correction. Indeed if the market perceives that trump will get impeached cause of Omarossa, the market could tank.

Shoot, and I was doing some financial planning based on a crash.  Oh well.  Omarosa won't, I said won't, be the cause of either Trump's impeachment or a crash in the markets.  She might cause a crash if she wears a bikini in Manhattan, but that's about it.  😎  Come to think of it, if Trump wears a bikini in Manhattan he might cause a crash, too!

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 hours ago, Epic said:

^Which Dow prediction was that? 

JJ had predicted a short term move up to @ 25,810.  The 5,000 down move was his longer term view, months not days.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Just to maybe not show off really, but to prove my point. This  chart is based on trading 1 currency, starting with a $2,000 account over 3 years, trading 1 contract only, not realistic since you would need a higher account, but nonethe less i just wanted to show that the 2,000 did not blow up during this whole period in this test i used data from last 3 years.

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Trump wont cause a crash lots of gays in nyc. Omarossa wont cause a crash either in nyc, lots of disgusting people there.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I used to live in midtown so i know what goes on there, u need to watch your back, literally.