WTI @ 67.50, charts show $62.50 next

[William Edwards + 708]

30 minutes ago, marcin lehmann said:

Actually, 10-20% of the oil price results from speculations on the political risks. There's hardly strong influence of the pure supply and demand game. Aby technical analyses seem to collapse nowadays.

There 's only one, in my opinion, factor which may affect the price level but only in a shirt time: possible trade war between Saudis and Iran on Market share. Iran tries to pump much oil before Trump sanctions starte. Why short time? As after sanctions starte Saudis will get the extra Market share "for free" and stop being interested in any action to get more and more price decrease

I see an Iranian/Saudi price war in the cards, as well, Marcin.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

4 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

so about the sp, without going into to much detail, or fundamentals, sp now is at 2,831 in uk session, I see it hitting 2,500 with some bumps on the way down, as it will get supported, but for the immediate move 2,800 will soon be broken. probably today. I just wanted to tell you, I didnt even know where the sp was trading until i looked at this chart.

2803 is the lowest so far today, but the day is not even half over.  Good call.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

5 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

So let me say this about the dow first. I don't want to talk about monkeys, but speaking about monkeys, a monkey can see were headed to 23,500 so that would mean we still have 1500 point to go, now don't get me wrong I am not saying people who can't see this are not smart, its just that they can't. Just remember the market here is at 25230, so so far it has gone down more than 300 points since my first post about dow going down, and the dow is  getting supported heavily, so It is kind of heroic to say it will be breaking 25,000, but I am no hero just looking at the charts with my right brain. Now eventually at some point the market will easily hit 19950. That still is not a crash, but could be the beginning. So when you buy those futures  or options your timing needs to be good, and you should be able to be in the right direction. Will try and look at the sps too, no charge.

24,996 just now. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

5 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

So im just watching the oil prices in more detail in the UK session, now just crossed 66. Looks like the Tornado finally is showing itself, When they start the bloodbath, here are where as it goes down, it will take the exit and stop at a reststop before continuing further down the highway. After 66 breaks, the first rest stop will be 64, after that 62, so below my target and then it comes for a long rest stop at 59.xx. This would be devastating to producers but people filling up their cars wont be complaining.

64.78 on Oil Price just now.  You're good, man.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Jump-As-Saudis-Cap-Oil-Supply.html this article which  says Saudi is capping the supply, is 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

always been, wink

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

on the dow 25,000 was broken, but like I said, they would support it very strongly from falling, however, if i was them, i would stop wasting my money, because they don't stand a chance, it has to fall.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

s and p hit 2802 before being supported, but that won't last. I said it would probably break 2800 today, there is a saying, "The day is still young".

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Been very negative on the markets almost everything I said would go down, the only thing I said would go up was, traders / investors blood pressure.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Eurusd been trying to keep its head above 1.13 but will soon see 1.11 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

of the 20 forex day traders i started watching this last month all with portfolios over 1 mill some with almost 3 mill. Hardly anyone is left standing. What happened the eur was 1.17 last month, lots thought it would hit 1.18+ including most analysts i listen too, (not follow, listen too), and all of them averaged down on the eur as it fell, its  right now 1.1336 and going down another 250p and even now most are still averaging down. This  is part of the reasons why the 95% never make money, even people with 30 years experience..

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

s and p hit 2802 before being supported, but that won't last. I said it would probably break 2800 today, there is a saying, "The day is still young".

S&Ps ticking down again.  I think you're going to see it break below 2800 pretty soon.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Very good Dan.

[marcin lehmann + 1]

Well, by November we will have seen the volatility in oils between 60 and 70 on WTI, I believe. Market histerically reacts on any news related to Iran sanctions - who will obey and who will not. After November when all "sanctions" cards should be on the table, there will either be US pressure on it's allies to follow them more and more (prices to go up) or first signals of Impeachment for Trump (prices to go down to 50$ on WTI). And the level wont be supported by Russia in long term which starts to affect OPEC to reduce the supply.

China also "promissed" to invest some money into Venezuela industry which also should help the trend. As long as no hurricaines hit important oil fields.

[AMR + 6]

Rising oil prices are a double-edged sword for the world economy, high inflation and low oil demand. Before election $50-55 range but I could be wrong …

[marcin lehmann + 1]

The current price (recent drop) of oil, in my opinion, is again the affect of politicians and politics. Today, I'd bet, the main impact on the drop was the Iraqi Minister declaration they will keep trading with Iran after the sanctions begins. 

So, again, nothing to do with pure demand-supply game.

Edited August 15, 2018 by marcin lehmann
Correction-update

[William Edwards + 708]

4 minutes ago, marcin lehmann said:

The current price (recent drop) of oil, in my opinion, is again the affect of politicians and politics. Today, I'd bet, the main impact on the drop was the Iraqi Minister declaration they will keep trading with Iran after the sanctions begins. 

So, again, nothing to do with pure demand-supply game.

Alternatively, you might consider the drop to be simply the beginning of the speculative longs "giving up while the price is high". They become sellers with fewer buyers.

Edited August 15, 2018 by William Edwards

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

 

William how you doing. So you want oil to go above 80? I'll see  if i can get a phone call into Opec.

Edited August 15, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Jump-As-Saudis-Cap-Oil-Supply.html this article which  says Saudi is capping the supply, is 

[William Edwards + 708]

Just now, Top Oil Trader said:

 

William how you doing. So you want oil to go above 80? I'll if i can get a phone call into Opec.

Actually, JJ, I think that oil above $80 would be a disaster for the oil industry, and possibly for the economy. But I am not worried that it will get there and, if so, will stay there long enough to do any harm.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I just looked at a long term chart well at least the way I look at it, and it looks like low 60s, high 50s before it may have a chance of going up.

Edited August 15, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[William Edwards + 708]

Just now, Top Oil Trader said:

I just looked at a long term chart well at least the way I look at it, and it looks like low 50s, before it may have a chance of going up.

My long term chart trends down into the 2020's before beginning the long march up in the late 2020's.

BTW, if you need OPEC's number, I can give you the direct line.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Fundamentally William, the sanctions of Iran when they start in november, or war in Iran could get oil above 80, maybe even 100. From the chart i cant see it right now going above 80. But eventually 100 is possible

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Jump-As-Saudis-Cap-Oil-Supply.html this article which  says Saudi is capping the supply, is 

[William Edwards + 708]

2 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Fundamentally William, the sanctions of Iran when they start in november, or war in Iran could get oil above 80, maybe even 100. From the chart i cant see it right now going above 80. But eventually 100 is possible

Spikes are always possible in a futures price. But a sustained level is a different matter. My guess is that the begging of the Iran sanctions period is a good opportunity to sell the news.

 

Edited August 15, 2018 by William Edwards