"Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Grinding Toward Summer Highs Despite Huge Short Interest" by James Hyerczyk & REUTERS on NatGas

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-natural-gas-output-drops-164950822.html

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-freeport-lng-delays-texas-142020820.html

Fri, December 23, 2022 at 8:20 AM CST - REUTERS

UPDATE 3-Freeport LNG delays Texas export plant restart to second half of January

Dec 23 (Reuters) - Freeport LNG said on Friday it was again delaying the restart of its long-shut liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas, this time from the end of the year to the second half of January, pending regulatory approval.

Since the plant shut in June, the closely-held company has already extended its restart targets several times from October to November, then to December and then to the end of the year.

Many analysts, however, have long said they did not expect the plant to return until the first quarter because the company still has a lot of work to do to satisfy federal regulators.

Freeport said in a statement "the reconstruction work necessary to commence initial operations is substantially complete."

The company also said it was submitting responses to the last remaining questions included in the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC) Dec. 12 data request.

FERC along with the U.S. Department of Transportation's Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) have to approve before Freeport can return to service.

"Given the time needed for the regulatory agencies to review the company's responses and to seek any necessary clarification, Freeport LNG now does not anticipate commencing the initial restart of its liquefaction facility until the second half of January 2023," it said.

U.S. LNG exports have steadily increased for years, and that supply has become crucial to European buyers since Russia has mostly cut off the continent's gas supply in response to sanctions placed on Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine.

The Freeport shutdown added to the squeeze on global gas caused by Russia's war. It helped boost prices in Europe and Asia to record highs over the summer, while capping gains in U.S. futures by leaving more fuel in the United States for domestic use.

Freeport shut on June 8 after an explosion due to inadequate operating and testing procedures, and human error and fatigue, according to a

report by consultants

hired to review the incident and suggest action.

Small amounts of gas started to

flow to Freeport

this week for the first time since August, according to data provider Refinitiv.

A source familiar with the matter said Freeport was using the gas to maintain a flare system.

Whenever Freeport returns, U.S. demand for gas will jump. It can turn about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export, which is about 2% of U.S. daily production.

The company did not say in its latest statement when it expects the plant to return to full power. In the past, Freeport said the plant was expected to reach full power in March 2023.

The lengthy delays have forced big customers including

JERA

and

Osaka Gas

to book hundreds of millions of dollars of losses. Its other big offtakers include BP, TotalEnergies and SK E&S.

A couple of vessels have been waiting in the Gulf of Mexico to pick up LNG from Freeport since at early November, while several other ships were expected to reach the plant in late December and January.

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

FROM FreeportLNG on Friday December 23, 2022 - http://freeportlng.newsrouter.com/news_release.asp?intRelease_ID=9755&intAcc_ID=77

http://www.newsrouter.com/NewsRouter_Uploads/77/FREEPORT LNG PROVIDES UPDATE ON RESTART OF ITS LIQUEFACTION FACILITY.pdf

FREEPORT LNG PROVIDES UPDATE ON RESTART OF ITS LIQUEFACTION FACILITY

Houston, TX, December 23, 2022 - Freeport LNG today updated the timing of the initial restart of its liquefaction facility. The company continues to make notable progress on its path towards the restart of liquefaction operations. As of December 23rd, the reconstruction work necessary to commence initial operations is substantially complete, and the company is submitting responses to the last remaining questions included in the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s December 12 data request.

Given the time needed for the regulatory agencies to review the company’s responses and to seek any necessary clarification, Freeport LNG now does not anticipate commencing the initial restart of its liquefaction facility until the second half of January 2023. The company continues to have close, collaborative engagement with the regulatory agencies and that engagement will continue as Freeport LNG works towards the safe restart of its facility.

ABOUT FREEPORT LNG

Freeport LNG is an LNG export company headquartered in Houston, Texas. The company’s three train, 15 MTPA liquefaction facility is the seventh largest in the world and second largest in the U.S. Freeport LNG’s liquefaction facility is the largest all-electric drive motor plant of its kind in the world, making it the most environmentally sustainable site of its kind. The facility’s electric drive motors reduce carbon emissions by over 90% relative to gas turbine-driven liquefaction facilities. Freeport plans to expand by adding a fourth liquefaction train, which has received all regulatory approvals for construction. Freeport was formed in 2002 to develop, own and operate an LNG terminal on Quintana Island, near Freeport, Texas. The terminal started LNG import operations in June 2008 and began LNG export operations in 2019. Further information can be found on Freeport’s website at www.freeportlng.com.

MEDIA CONTACT:
Heather Browne
713.980.2888
 

Edited December 25, 2022 by Tom Nolan

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/natgas-production-collapses-deep-freeze-paralyzes-us

NatGas Production Collapses As Deep Freeze Paralyzes US

by Tyler Durden

Saturday, Dec 24, 2022 - 02:10 PM

An arctic blast gripped the eastern half of the US, knocked out power, and slashed energy production. Sub-freezing temperatures resulted in one of the most significant one-day natural gas production declines on Friday. 

BloombergNEF reported NatGas supplies across the Lower 48 states fell 10 billion cubic feet, or 10%, from the previous day as a deep freeze across top-producing regions, including Texas, experienced freeze-offs that froze liquids in pipes and forced wells to shutter. 

The arctic air has also disrupted exports of liquefied natural gas from the Gulf Coast. 

Subfreezing temperatures and high winds through Dec. 26 may cause delays or suspension to pilot services for the Sabine-Neches Waterway in Texas, according to notices from Moran Shipping. The waterway services the Sabine Pass terminal, the largest US LNG export facility.

Pilots for the port of Corpus Christi, who are responsible for docking vessels in the southern Texas region, have suspended boarding vessels due to the cold, according to Moran. That may affect ship traffic to the Corpus Christi LNG export facility.

Cheniere Energy Inc., operator of the Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi terminals, said that it always prepares for and responds to extreme weather to safely manage operations. The company didn't comment on the current operations of the facilities. --Bloomberg 

There have also been reports that 1.5 million barrels of daily refining capacity along the Gulf Coast were halted due to freezing temperatures. Production losses will lead to higher energy costs. 

Knocked out were TotalEnergies, Motiva Enterprises and Marathon Petroleum facilities outside Houston. Cold weather also disrupted Exxon Mobil, LyondellBasell and Valero Energy plants in Texas that produce gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. --Reuters

The cold snap will remain in place for the next several days. Average temperatures across the US on Christmas could be the coldest in decades -- if not, records could be broken. Average low temps tonight will be well below freezing nationwide. 

Meanwhile, domestic demand for NatGas is soaring as heating demand surges. What could possibly go wrong as supplies are being curtailed? 

 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/winter-storm-freezing-pipes-hammering-174009826.html

Sat, December 24, 2022 at 11:40 AM Bloomberg

Winter Storm Is Freezing Pipes and Hammering Natural Gas Output

(Bloomberg) -- US natural gas production suffered its biggest one-day drop in more than a decade on Friday as the massive winter storm battering much of North America froze liquids in pipes and forced wells to shut down.

Supplies across the Lower-48 states shrank by nearly 10 billion cubic feet, or roughly 10%, from the previous day as temperatures across key producing areas including in top supplier Texas fell below freezing, according to BloombergNEF data.

Meanwhile, domestic demand surged to the highest daily level since early 2019. Early pipeline nominations tracked by BNEF indicate that gas supplies may start to rebound Saturday while still trailing normal levels.

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/freeport-lngs-wait-gets-longer-010500037.html

Odessa-American - Dec 24, 2022

Freeport LNG's wait gets longer

Dec. 24—Knocked out of action by a June 8 fire, the big Freeport LNG Development's export terminal on the Texas Gulf Coast worked all summer and fall to fix the damages, but it has been stymied by a 64-point list of demands from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

The situation was analyzed by Congressman August Pfluger, Odessa oilman Kirk Edwards, Panhandle Producers & Royalty Owners President Judy Stark, Texas Alliance of Energy Producers President Jason Modglin and Permian Basin Petroleum Association President Ben Shepperd. The FERC didn't respond to a request from the Odessa American for an explanation.

Pfluger said Wednesday from Washington that the company and the FERC should work together for the mutual good of the nation, Europe and the energy industry. "The news that Freeport LNG is on track to receive natural gas is a step in the right direction for Permian Basin producers and our nation's export capabilities," the San Angelo Republican said.

"It is imperative that the FERC and Freeport work in tandem to safely reopen the facility."

The initial opening has been pushed back from mid-November to the end of the year and now to the second half of January with the restoration of full operations not projected till March as the company scrambles to satisfy the FERC. The terminal was constructed between 2005 and '08.

Edwards said it "has been ready for quite a while to help Europe out of their energy crisis, but the Biden administration has it tied up.

"People are freezing to death in Ukraine and other parts of Europe because they don't have enough liquefied natural gas to warm themselves in their homes and for this to be tied up in bureaucratic red tape is a tragedy."

Edwards said the terminal has put billions of cubic feet of natural gas into storage while it awaits the excruciatingly slow federal go-ahead.

"Normally that gas would be sent away on LNG tankers to alleviate Europe's suffering," he said, noting that natural gas is selling for 10 times in Europe what it brings in the United States or about $60 per thousand cubic feet.

Stark said from Amarillo that the fire was very destructive and repair crews at the terminal have had a lot of work to do. "You leave nothing to chance when it comes to men and machinery, especially in the oil and gas industry, which is one of the most highly regulated industries in the United States," she said.

"The deficiencies listed, in my opinion, were not out of the ordinary. Some were valve testing procedures, failure to adjust alarms that could warn operators of rising temperatures during operations and procedures that allowed operators the discretion to close valves that might cause LNG to be isolated in pipes.

"There was a control room that did not adequately show when temperatures soared. Alarms were 'constantly indicating' on equipment, leading to what some operators described as 'alarm fatigue,'" Stark said. "Severely damaged electrical wiring likely ignited the released gas from a pipeline breach and led to the fireball."

There were no fatalities from the accident.

Modglin said from Austin that American LNG export terminals "are playing a key role in meeting the world's energy demands this winter and they are a critical part of our energy security infrastructure, helping to expand the opportunity for independent producers to compete directly with OPEC-Plus," which includes Russia.

"These LNG terminals have attracted new investments to Texas all along the natural gas supply chain and they are working to lower exorbitant energy prices," Modglin said. "We believe the FERC should work expediently with operators to restore and maximize American export capability rather than layering more bureaucratic red tape that is contrary to President Biden's commitment to increase LNG shipments to Europe.

"Added delays will further empower overseas competitors and undermine efforts to stop Russia from profiting from the Ukraine invasion."

Shepperd said there "is no question of the vital role that the Freeport LNG terminal plays in both processing domestically produced energy and transporting it to American allies abroad.

"The United States should continue to be a leader in supporting the energy needs of friendly nations and any effort, whether by regulatory agencies here or unfriendly foreign actors, to diminish this role is dangerous to our sustained economic and energy security," Shepperd said.

"We encourage FERC to ensure the safe restart of this facility because it is of the highest priority and their delays can cost lives."

Owned by Michael S. Smith, who spent $15 billion building it on Quintana Island off the Texas Gulf Coast, Freeport LNG Development says on its website that it will produce 15 million tons of LNG per year when it becomes fully operational again.

"However, the project's benefits and far-reaching economic impacts are equally impressive," the company says. "Approximately 30,000 permanent jobs will be created across the U.S. to support the exploration and production of feed gas supplied to our facility.

"The complete economic benefits of exporting our contracted LNG will be between $5.5 billion and $8 billion annually."

Having each cost from $10 billion to $20 billion to build and with each one having taken 2 1/2 to four years to complete, only six other LNG export terminals are in operation at Corpus Christi, Kenai, Alaska, Hackberry and Sabine, La., Cove Point, Md., and Elba Island, Ga., owned respectively by Cheniere Energy, Trans-Foreland Pipeline Co., Sempra-Cameron LNG, Cheniere, Berkshire Hathaway-Dominion Energy-Brookfield Asset Management and Kinder Morgan-Global Energy Partners, according to the FERC.

Supplied by pipelines, the terminals freeze the natural gas to 260 degrees below zero to liquefy it and then load it onto ships that were averaging 100 in number each month before the Freeport fire.

Weighing 45 percent as much as water, LNG is odorless, colorless, non-toxic and non-corrosive.

When it reaches its destinations, it's thawed out or "regassified," having had the dust, acid gases, helium, water and heavy hydrocarbons removed to make a mixture of mostly methane and a little ethane.

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/zOTcEZ94Dgyixc5IhqR53Q--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTgxNjtjZj13ZWJw/https://media.zenfs.com/en/indexuniverse.com/43defd2ed5858fe2cb3e5ca133eca41e

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/natural-gas-etfs-waves-volatility-180000199.html

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Tuesday - 12/27 late day -  REUTERS and Weather

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-u-natgas-output-cuts-203019945.html

https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/winter-break-us-temperatures-rise-after-frigid-christmas-blizzard

https://chat.enelyst.com/enelyst/channels/maxar-weather-desk

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Natural-Gas-Production-Plunges-As-Winter-Storm-Wreaks-Havoc.html

U.S. Natural Gas Production Plunges As Winter Storm Wreaks Havoc

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Dec 28, 2022, 2:25 AM CST

• Winter Storm Elliott has wreaked havoc across the U.S. and Canada, leaving dozens of people dead and cutting power to millions of households.
• The Appalachia basin, the top natural gas-producing basin in the U.S., saw production drop by a record amount as the storm swept through.
• Natural gas output fell by more than 50% in Ohio and by more than 20% in Pennsylvania as the storm froze wells and equipment.

Join Our Community

Natural gas output in the Appalachia region, the top gas-producing basin in the U.S., dropped by a record amount as Winter Storm Elliott swept through Pennsylvania and Ohio, freezing wells and some equipment and creating mechanical issues at pipeline infrastructure.

The Appalachia basin saw natural gas supply drop by 27%, or by 9 billion cubic feet, compared to the typical levels, according to estimates by BloombergNEF based on pipeline flows. The decline was the steepest on record in data since 2013, Bloomberg notes.   

In Pennsylvania, natural gas production fell by more than 20%, due to well freeze-offs. In Ohio, output more than halved, according to Bloomberg’s estimates.

Winter Storm Elliott cut off the power supply to millions of households and disrupted Christmas travel plans for millions more as thousands of flights were canceled. Just ahead of the Christmas holiday weekend, almost 250 million U.S. and Canadian residents were affected by the storm in one way or another, and dozens of people have died.

As of Tuesday, December 27, U.S. natural gas production was still significantly below the levels of the past weeks. Early production data, cited by Natural Gas Intelligence, showed that American natural gas output was still around 80-86 Bcf/d, well below the 100 Bcf/d production of the past weeks and months. 

Several gas pipelines continued to report issues this week, which has further constrained the ability of gas flows to the systems.  

The plunge in the Appalachia natural gas production exacerbated issues at the grids as lower volumes of gas were sent via pipelines to gas-fired power generation units.

This happened just as power demand surged during the storm, straining electricity systems in some areas in the U.S. The Tennessee Valley Authority and Duke Energy implemented rolling blackouts in the Tennessee Valley and the Carolinas ahead of Christmas Eve to maintain grid stability.    

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://www.rigzone.com/news/title_of_largest_lng_exporter_in_first_half_of_2022_goes_to_the_us-28-dec-2022-171550-article/

Wed December 28, 2022  

by Bojan Lepic

Title Of Largest LNG Exporter In First Half Of 2022 Goes To The US

The United States was the world's largest LNG exporter during the first half of this year.

 

The United States became the world’s largest LNG exporter during the first half of this year, according to data from CEDIGAZ.

Compared with the second half of 2021, U.S. LNG exports increased by 12% in the first half of 2022, averaging 11.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d).

U.S. LNG exports continued to grow for three reasons – increased LNG export capacity, increased international natural gas and LNG prices, and increased global demand, particularly in Europe.

According to estimates made by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the installed U.S. LNG export capacity has expanded by 1.9 Bcf/d nominal (2.1 Bcf/d peak) since November 2021.

The capacity additions included a sixth train at the Sabine Pass LNG, 18 new mid-scale liquefaction trains at the Calcasieu Pass LNG, and increased LNG production capacity at Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi LNG facilities. As of July 2022, we estimate that U.S. LNG liquefaction capacity averaged 11.4 Bcf/d, with a shorter-term peak capacity of 13.9 Bcf/d.

International natural gas and LNG prices hit record highs in the last quarter of 2021 and first half of 2022. Prices at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands have been trading at record highs since October 2021. TTF averaged $30.94 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) during the first half of 2022. LNG spot prices in Asia have also been high, averaging $29.50/MMBtu during the same period.

Since the end of last year, countries in Europe have increasingly imported more LNG to compensate for lower pipeline imports from Russia and to fill historically low natural gas storage inventories. LNG imports in the EU and UK increased by 63% during the first half of 2022 to average 14.8 Bcf/d.

Most U.S. LNG exports went to the EU and the UK during the first five months of this year, accounting for 64%, or 7.3 Bcf/d, of the total U.S. LNG exports.

Like 2021, the United States sent the most LNG to the EU and UK during the first half of the year, providing 47% of the 14.8 Bcf/d of Europe's total LNG imports, followed by Qatar at 15%, Russia at 14%, and four African countries combined at 17%.

In June, the United States exported 11% less LNG than the 11.4 Bcf/d average exports during the first five months of 2022, mainly because of an unplanned outage at the Freeport LNG export facility. Freeport LNG is expected to resume partial liquefaction operations in early October 2022.

Utilization of the peak capacity at the seven U.S. LNG export facilities averaged 87% during the first half of 2022, mainly before the Freeport LNG outage, which is like the utilization on average during 2021.

To contact the author, email bojan.lepic@rigzone.com

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Wed Dec 28 - by Andreas Exarheas

https://www.rigzone.com/news/where_will_henry_hub_gas_price_land-28-dec-2022-171551-article/

Where Will Henry Hub Gas Price Land?

The Henry Hub spot price will average $6.48 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2022 and $5.43 per MMBtu in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released in December.

According to the STEO, the Henry Hub spot price will drop from $7.99 per MMBtu in the third quarter to $5.82 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter. The commodity will then jump to $6.17 per MMBtu in the first quarter of next year, before dropping to $5 per MMBtu in the second quarter and rising to $5.18 per MMBtu in the third quarter and $5.35 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2023, the December STEO shows.

“We expect natural gas prices to increase from November levels as a result of both higher winter natural gas demand and rising LNG exports,” the EIA stated in its latest STEO.

“Our forecast for the Henry Hub spot price averages more than $6.00 per MMBtu in 1Q23, up from November’s monthly average of about $5.50 per MMBtu. We expect natural gas prices will begin declining after January as U.S. storage levels move closer to the previous five-year average, largely as a result of rising U.S. natural gas production,” the EIA added.

“However, the possibility of price volatility remains high,” the EIA warned.

In its November STEO, the EIA saw the Henry Hub spot price averaging $6.49 per MMBtu in 2022 and $5.46 per MMBtu in 2023. In that STEO, the EIA projected that the commodity would hit $5.82 per MMBtu in 4Q, $6.21 per MMBtu in 1Q 2023, $5.04 per MMBtu in 2Q, $5.20 per MMBtu in 3Q and $5.40 per MMBtu in 4Q 2023.

At the time of writing, the Henry Hub price is trading at $4.99 per MMBtu. The commodity’s lowest 2022 close, so far, was seen on January 4, at $3.71 per MMBtu. Its highest 2022 close, so far, was seen on August 22, at $9.68 per MMBtu.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Freeport LNG - Backstory of problem and current status

https://maritime-executive.com/article/restart-of-freeport-lng-delayed-for-fourth-time-now-to-january-2023

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Americas-Biggest-Gas-Producer-Sees-30-Output-Cut-Over-Storm.html

America’s Biggest Gas Producer Sees 30% Output Cut Over Storm

By Charles Kennedy - Dec 28, 2022, 4:00 PM CST

• EQT Corp. has reported a 30% in gas production due to the cold weather of the last couple of days.
• EQT Chief Executive Officer Toby Rice said output fell by between 1 billion and 1.5 billion cubic feet per day last week.
• In Q3 2022, EQT was producing around 5 billion cubic feet per day. 

Join Our Community

America’s largest natural gas producer, EQT Corp, has experienced a plunge in production up to 30% due to severe cold weather that led to Appalachian Basin well disruption, Bloomberg reports.

Speaking to Bloomberg Television on Wednesday, EQT Chief Executive Officer Toby Rice said output fell by between 1 billion and 1.5 billion cubic feet per day amid the extreme cold snap that started last week with a blast of Arctic air and strong winds leading to subzero temperatures affecting an estimated 150 million people. 

In Q3 2022, EQT was producing around 5 billion cubic feet per day. 

Rice said output should be restored to normal in the “next couple of days”. 

The EQT executive is using this loss of production as a public stage for slamming renewable power sources, which he told Bloomberg “didn’t show up”, applauding the natural gas industry’s ability to respond quickly to severe weather conditions and calling for more natural gas pipelines to shore up heating and power supplies. 

Last month, Rice said in a public statement that increasing natural gas production and building more pipelines was the answer to climate change, global poverty and a host of other problems. 

Overall, the Appalachian Basin saw natural gas output drop by 9 billion cubic feet–a 27% plunge. According to Bloomberg NEF, that drop was the biggest since 2013. The production drop in the region wreaked havoc on energy grids, which suffered from lower volumes of gas being piped to gas-fired power generation units.

Production was most profoundly hit in Ohio, which experienced a nearly 50% output drop as Winter Storm Elliott raged through both Ohio and Pennsylvania, which saw a 20% decline in output.

On Tuesday, Natural Gas Intelligence said that early production data showed that U.S. output was around 80-86 billion cubic feet per day, far below the trend of around 100 billion cubic feet per day over the past months. 

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Thursday Dec 29 9:30am  https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/natural-gas-stocks-change

Edited December 29, 2022 by Tom Nolan

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-natgas-hits-10-month-154957278.html

Friday Dec 30 - REUTERS

U.S. natgas hits 10-month lows in its roller-coaster year's closing day

* Natgas on track for longest annual winning steak as per Refinitiv data * Natgas prices have halved since crossing $10 mark in August * Markets await Freeport LNG's potential restart in Jan Dec 30 (Reuters) -

U.S. natural gas futures on Friday slipped to a 10-month low on forecasts for warmer weather, yet the year's hot-commodity was poised for its third consecutive annual rise as supply disruptions due to Russia-Ukraine war sent tremors across global gas markets. The contract has added about 20% so far in what has been tipped as the most volatile year for the commodity, having surpassed the $10 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) level for the first time in 14 years. Prices halved since the, however, and are trading around $4.390/mmBtu, down 17 cents, or 3.8% as of 10:39 a.m. EDT, pressured by record high U.S. output and milder weather reducing demand for heating.

The contract hit its lowest since March 1 and was on track for the worst quarterly loss in a year. "With warmer than normal weather ahead of us, I believe the draws for the next several weeks are going to be much lower than the five year average, especially for the first week of January," said Zhen Zhu, managing consultant at C.H. Guernsey and Co in Oklahoma City, who expects prices to continue to be soft unless there is "some serious cold."

Data provider Refinitiv estimated 345 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks in the lower 48 U.S. states. The normal is 440 HDDs for this time of year.

HDDs estimate demand to heat homes and businesses by measuring the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius).

Markets now keenly wait for the restart of long-shut Freeport LNG liquefied natural gas export plant in Texas, in the second half of January, pending regulatory approval. Year ago Five-year Week ended Week ended Dec 23 average Dec 30 Dec 23 Dec 23 (Forecast) (Actual) U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -125 -106 -220 -213 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 3,245 3,197 2,892 3,112 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -9.5% -2.7% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Prior Day Last Year Average Average 2021 (2017-2021) Henry Hub 3.86 3.73 2.89 4.54 4.56 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 37.67 16.04 7.49 24.19 27.96 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) 37.84 18.00 8.95 28.83 28.18 Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days Two-Week Total Forecast Current Day Prior Day Prior Year 10-Year 30-Year Norm Norm U.S. GFS HDDs 345 315 442 438 440 U.S. GFS CDDs 4 4 7 4 3 U.S. GFS TDDs 349 319 449 442 443 Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts Prior Week Current Week Next Week This Week Five-Year Last Year Average For Month ....

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Natural-Gas-Prices-Set-For-A-Sustained-Rally-In-2023.html

Natural Gas Prices Set For A Sustained Rally In 2023

By Irina Slav - Dec 30, 2022, 2:55 AM CST

Despite the recent drop in natural gas prices in Europe thanks to unseasonably warm weather, the commodity is set to end 2022 with a significant overall gain.

What’s more, per a Reuters report, gas investors could look forward to another strong year in 2023 as most signs point to a sustained rally in natural gas in an environment of tight supply and solid demand.

"From a fundamental perspective, the setup for most commodities next year is more bullish than it has been at any point since we first highlighted the supercycle in October 2020,” Reuters quoted a Goldman Sachs commodities outlook today.

The rally in gas prices began last year as demand in Europe began to rise on the underperformance on renewables while supply had to catch up. The situation escalated massively this year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the EU’s response, which took the form of a series of sanction packages.

In its turn, Russia started cutting gas supplies to Europe and later in the year, after the sabotage of Nord Stream 1 by a party that remains unnamed despite the conclusion of the investigation, the only conduit for Russian gas for Europe was the pipeline that goes through Ukraine.

Earlier this month, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Moscow was ready to resume gas flows via the Yamal-Europe pipeline as well.

"The European market remains relevant, as the gas shortage persists, and we have every opportunity to resume supplies," Novak said, as quoted by TASS. "For example, the Yamal-Europe Pipeline, which was stopped for political reasons, remains unused,” he added.

Besides gas, the other winner this year in commodities was coal. Contrary to expectations, the dirtiest fossil fuel made a veritable comeback in 2022 because of the European gas crisis and the limited supply of gas and consumption increased significantly, as did prices.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Video in article

https://www.yahoo.com/news/canada-thaw-continues-winter-stage-102622640.html

Canada’s thaw continues: When will winter stage a comeback?

Dr. Doug Gillham

Tue, January 3, 2023 at 4:26 AM

 

Canada’s thaw continues: When will winter stage a comeback?

Winter has hit the pause button. During the final week of December, our weather pattern flipped from wild to mild with warmer-than-normal temperatures spreading across most of Canada.

The various shades of orange, red and brown on the temperature anomaly map below highlight that most of North America has been warmer than normal for the past week.

 

DOUG1

This is a dramatic pattern change from what we saw during most of the month of December.

Winter started quickly across Western and Central Canada with colder-than-normal temperatures west of the Great Lakes during most of December. The cold weather was especially severe during the 10 days leading up to and through Christmas.

The various shades of blue, green, and purple on the temperature anomaly map below show that much of North America (except for the area from northern Ontario to Atlantic Canada) was much colder than normal between December 16 and December 26.

 

Doug2

While the cold weather allowed most Canadians outside of Atlantic Canada to have a white Christmas, winter storms severely disrupted Christmas travel plans.

However, while many were enjoying a break from work and school, winter also began an extended break, and it does not appear to be in any hurry to return.

Mild Pacific air will continue to spread across most of Canada during the first two weeks of January with minimal Arctic air available to plunge south. Therefore, we expect that above-seasonal temperatures will continue to dominate across most of Canada during the first half of January.

 

JanFirstTwoWeeks

However, keep in mind that for most of Canada, January is the coldest month of the year, so high-impact winter weather can still occur in a mild pattern, especially for areas that are further to the north and away from coastlines (both Atlantic and Pacific). Across most of Canada, temperatures can be well above normal and still be cold enough for snow and ice.

Mid and late January: Does winter stage a comeback?

During the second half of January, we expect that winter will attempt to stage a comeback. However, the strength of that comeback is still highly uncertain.

There are numerous variables that we analyze around the globe for clues as to how the jet stream pattern will evolve during the weeks ahead. Unfortunately, those variables are currently giving us some strongly opposing scenarios regarding the jet stream pattern for mid- and late January.

One possible scenario is that the very mild early January pattern will continue to dominate most of the month.

However, it is also possible that the jet stream will trend back towards a pattern that resembles what we saw during December with another extended period of colder-than-normal weather.

Often when we are faced with strongly opposing signals regarding the long-range pattern, we end up seeing a more changeable pattern with neither extreme being able to take over the weather pattern for an extended period.

That is the outcome that we currently favour with our forecast for the second half of January shown below. We expect that western and central Canada will be near seasonal during the second half of January as a result of back-and-forth swings in temperature. Meanwhile, we expect that much of eastern Canada will tip to the mild side of seasonal.

 

MidLateJan

A strong jet stream over the Pacific Ocean is expected to bring an active storm track into the west coast of North America. While storms will track south of the border at times, the jet stream will meander north and south during the month and should deliver enough storms to bring near-normal or slightly above-normal precipitation totals to the South Coast region of B.C., including Vancouver and Victoria.

 

JanPrecip

An active storm track is also expected across most of the Great Lakes region, the St. Lawrence Valley and into parts of Atlantic Canada. However, several of these storms will bring rain or a mix of rain, ice and snow, especially across southern parts of the region.

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/global-natgas-prices-sink-warm-weather-spreads

Global NatGas Prices Sink As Warm Weather Spreads

by Tyler Durden

Tuesday, Jan 03, 2023 - 07:40 AM

US and European natural gas prices are sliding as warmer weather reduces demand for the heating fuel, and storage levels remain high. Risks of a global energy crisis are diminishing for now -- well -- that's until the next cold blast strikes. 

The polar vortex that sent much of the Lower 48 into a deep freeze at the end of 2022 ended last week. Now, much of the US will see warmer-than-normal temperatures through mid-Jan. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's latest 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook shows that nearly all Lower 48 will experience above-average weather. 

NOAA's 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook suggests the same. 

Weather data via Bloomberg shows Lower 48 temperatures are expected to remain above a 30-year average through mid-month. 

And this will reduce heating demand. 

US NatGas storage entered into a drawing period in mid-Nov. and has been sliding since.  

A weaker heating demand outlook has sent US NatGas prices down nearly 9% to $4.062 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange in early Tuesday trading. Prices are back to levels not seen since early February 2022. 

Across the Atlantic, EU NatGas touched the lowest levels since the start of the Ukraine war. 

"The risk of extreme market tightness that people were worried about before the winter started seems low now," BloombergNEF's Abhishek Rohatgi wrote. 

Warmer weather in Europe has eased concerns about blackouts and rationing as stockpiles increase:

In fact, Europe has been able to add more gas into storage in the last few days amid a mix of curbed heating needs and typically lower consumption during the holiday season. -Bloomberg

EU NatGas storage increased last week. 

Temperatures across Central EU are expected to hold above seasonal levels through at least the mid-month. 

Sign of relief worldwide: NatGas prices slide in the US, EU, and Asia. 

We noted days ago the risks of a collapsing polar vortex in the Arctic could send parts of the EU into a chill later this month. And it's only a matter of time before cold weather returns to the US. 

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

VIDEOS - Tuesday Jan 3rd, 2023...

Bloomberg 2 minutes

Warmer Weather Drives Down Natural Gas

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2k8gRzNOC4

~~~~~~~~~

CNBC TV18 - 2 1/2 minutes

U.S. Natural Gas Prices Slip 7% Overnight, EU Gas Prices Extend Loses To February 2022 Low

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qu8HXfzMEeM

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 5 minutes - A Good Technical Trader...  -

More Trading Online    

https://www.youtube.com/@moretradingonline/videos

Natgas Natural Gas Technical Analysis Today - Elliott Wave and Price News, Gas Price Prediction!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WmiUWMI0VE

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Mild Winter Weather Eases The Global Gas Crisis

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 03, 2023, 5:30 AM CST

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Mild-Winter-Weather-Eases-The-Global-Gas-Crisis.html

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

REUTERS - Jan 3 afternoon

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-u-natgas-futures-drop-200611398.html

UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas futures drop 11% to 10-month low on warmer Jan forecasts

(Adds latest prices) Jan 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures collapsed about 11% to a 10-month low on Tuesday as volatility continues into 2023 on forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather and lower heating demand in January than previously expected.

In 2022, U.S. gas futures had their most volatile year yet, with both implied and historic volatility at record highs as soaring global gas prices fed demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports due to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's war in Ukraine.

Traders said the biggest uncertainty for the market remains when Freeport LNG will restart its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas. After several delays, Freeport expects the facility to return in the second half of January, pending regulatory approvals.

Many analysts, however, have long said they did not expect the plant to return until the first quarter because the company still has work to do to satisfy federal regulators. Whenever Freeport returns, U.S. demand for gas will jump. The plant can turn about 2.1 bcfd of gas into LNG for export, which is about 2% of U.S. daily production. Freeport shut on June 8 after a pipe failure caused an explosion due to inadequate operating and testing procedures, human error and fatigue, according to a report by consultants hired to review the incident and suggest action.

Several vessels, including Prism Diversity, Prism Courage, Prism Agility and Elisa Larus, were waiting in the Gulf of Mexico to pick up LNG from Freeport.

Some of those ships - Prism Diversity and Prism Courage - have been there since early November.

Other ships were sailing toward the plant, including Corcovado LNG, which is expected to arrive in mid January, and Kmarin Diamond and Wilforce in late January.

Front-month gas futures for February delivery fell 48.7 cents, or 10.9%, to settle at $3.988 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Feb. 11. That was the contract's fourth decline in a row and its biggest daily percentage drop since Dec. 19 when it fell 11.4%. It also keeps the contract in technically oversold territory with a relative strength index (RSI) below 30 for a fourth day in a row for the first time since October.

In addition, the premium of futures for March over April , which the industry calls the widow maker, fell to a record low as some in the market gave up hope that extreme cold would cause prices to spike later this winter.

For the year, spot gas prices at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana averaged $6.44 per mmBtu in 2022, their highest since hitting a record high of $8.86 in 2008. That compares with $3.91 in 2021 and a five-year (2017-2021) average of $2.93. GLOBAL PRICES MUCH HIGHER Gas was trading at $22 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe and $29 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) in Asia.

U.S. gas futures lag global prices because the United States is the world's top producer with all the fuel it needs for domestic use, while capacity constraints and the Freeport outage have prevented the country from exporting more LNG. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 97.9 bcfd so far in January, up from 96.7 bcfd in December but still below the monthly record of 99.9 bcfd in November 2022.

Even though the weather is expected to remain warmer than normal through mid-January, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 109.7 bcfd this week to 121.1 bcfd next week as temperatures ease ahead of what are usually the coldest weeks of the year.

Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Dec 30 Dec 23 Dec 23 average (Forecast) (Actual) Dec 23 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -220 -213 -125 -106 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,892 3,112 3,245 3,197 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -9.5% -2.7% Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) Current Day Prior Day This Month Prior Year Five Year Last Year Average Average 2022 (2018-2022) Henry Hub 4.06 4.48 4.26 6.54 3.60 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) 23.35 23.21 28.25 40.50 14.39

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-natgas-price-collapse-cut-154903815.html

U.S. natgas price collapse cut 2023 widow maker premium to record low

Jan 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped to a 10-month low on Tuesday, cutting the March-April spread to a record low as forecasts for mild weather and low heating demand in January force some in the market to give up on hopes for extreme cold in coming weeks.

The gas industry calls the March-April spread the "widow maker" because rapid price moves resulting from changing weather forecasts have knocked some speculators out of business, including the Amaranth hedge fund, which lost over $6 billion on gas futures in 2006.

The premium of futures for March over April fell 52% to a record low of 10 cents per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Tuesday, according to data provider Refinitiv.

That was a massive narrowing of the spread, which hit a record $2.13 per mmBtu in May 2022 as demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports soared after Russia cut most gas exports to Europe after the European Union sanctioned Moscow for the war in Ukraine.

The market uses the March-April spread to bet on the winter heating season when demand for gas peaks.

March is the last month of the winter season, while April is the first month of the summer season when utilities inject gas into storage for use during the winter.

The price spread between the March and April contracts is usually the widest of any monthly futures. A narrowing of the spread usually means the market has given up on expectations for a cold winter, while a widening of the spread usually means the market expects a cold winter.

In addition to the narrowing March-April spread, the premium of futures for February over March 2023 fell 27% to 27 cents per mmBtu, its lowest since January 2022.

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

Thursday 1/5 - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-natgas-futures-drop-5-125525440.html?_fsig=KndhpEBbYm9Plls8Cpsyzg--~A

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-u-natgas-sinks-10-153138523.html

(Adds latest prices, quote) Jan 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures plunged close to 11% to a one-year low on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected storage draw and forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather to continue into late January. That should keep heating demand low during what is usually the coldest part of the year and allow utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual in coming weeks. "January 2023 is off to the warmest start in more than 15 years - sending the ... gas contract cratering (over) 40% in under three weeks," analysts at energy consulting firm EBW Analytics told customers in a note. "The extreme transition from record-breaking Christmas cold to exceptional warmth to start 2023 is leading to market whiplash."

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 221 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Dec. 30. That was smaller than expected but larger than usual because colder-than-normal weather last week prompted consumers to burn more gas to heat their homes and businesses.

The storage drop was less than the 228-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with a decrease of 46 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2017-2021) average decline of 98 bcf.

Last week's decrease cut stockpiles to 2.891 trillion cubic feet (tcf), or 6.7% below the five-year average of 3.099 tcf for this time of year.

"Natural gas prices are betting that 2023 storage will post smaller numbers in coming weeks that reflect the warm temps across the United States, with a good chance storage switches to a surplus to the year-over-year and the five-year average," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York. After jumping about 5% on Wednesday, front-month gas futures on Thursday dropped 45.2 cents, or 10.8%, to settle at $3.72 per million British thermal units, the contract's lowest close since Jan. 4, 2022. That put the front-month down about 44% over the past three weeks. In addition, it keeps the contract in technically oversold territory with a relative strength index (RSI) below 30 for a sixth day in a row for the first time since October...

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://archive.is/exmsl#selection-3463.0-3481.58

https://archive.is/exmsl

Thursday 1/5

European Energy Prices Rebound as Risks Keep Crisis Alive

• Global markets are short of gas with lower Russian supplies
• US Freeport LNG plant could be further delayed: consultant

European energy prices halted their dramatic slide as traders focused on risks that could tighten the market, even with historically warm weather keeping a lid on demand. 

Benchmark natural gas futures settled 11% higher, reversing an earlier loss. While bearish factors prevail, supply can tighten as the Freeport LNG plant could face further delays to its restart, according to Rapidan Energy Group, a consultancy. Power prices also jumped.

Europe is poised for the warmest January in years, providing some relief from its energy crisis amid reduced Russian gas flows to the region. Still, prices for the fuel are higher than normal and the continent remains exposed to any further supply disruptions. Global markets for liquefied natural gas remain tight as Europe and Asia vie for cargoes.

Energy Crisis Isn’t Over Despite Enormous Drop in Gas Prices

“There are still plenty of risks around the remaining Russian supply and also the potential for increased competition for LNG from China, as the country drops its zero-Covid policy,” Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Bank NV, said in a report. “Prices will still need to remain elevated to ensure demand destruction keeps the market in balance through the 2023-24 winter.”

 

 

Dutch front-month futures, the European gas benchmark settled at €72.42 per megawatt-hour after rising as much as 13% intraday. The contract on Wednesday settled at the lowest level since October 2021. 

The UK equivalent contract also rose. German power for next month increased 8.4% to €175.96 per megawatt-hour.

“There is not so much room for gas to go down further at the moment,” said Graham Freedman, an analyst at consultancy Wood Mackenzie Ltd. “If gas prices keep going down, marginal LNG supplies could start diverting to Asia.” In addition, the use of gas in power would be on the rise, he said.

Freeport LNG may not restart after an explosion last summer for “several more months” due to extensive personnel training required, Rapidan said. Heather Browne, a spokeswoman for Houston-based Freeport LNG, said the company’s goal of reopening in the second half of January still stands. Still, the focus on the plant’s restart progress highlights the extent of nervousness on the market. 

Easing Crisis

The recent gas price slump — a drop of almost 50% for the Dutch benchmark since the start of December — has helped to alleviate the crisis for European economies. In France, inflation unexpectedly slowed in December, while in Germany it eased more than anticipated. 

Prices have declined so much lately that they are already close to a level to encourage gas — instead of coal — for electricity generation, according to EnergyScan, the market analysis platform of Engie SA. 

If prices don’t rebound from the current levels, “it would mean that the gas market is really comfortable and that gas consumption for power generation can continue to increase,” the firm’s analysts said in a note.

Gas markets could tighten again this year as LNG supplies will be limited, with no new major export projects starting in the near term. Competition for cargoes with Asia could also increase. 

 

Edited January 6, 2023 by Tom Nolan

[Tom Nolan + 2,443]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-u-natgas-eases-1-195356032.html

Fri, January 6, 2023 at 1:53 PM CST

UPDATE 1-U.S. natgas eases to 1-yr low as warm weather causes worst start for year

(Adds latest prices) Jan 6 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased to a fresh one-year low on Friday on forecasts for warmer-than-normal weather and lower than usual heating demand to continue into late January. With the contract down about 17% so far this year, the gas market had its worst start to a year on record, according to Refinitiv data going back to 1991, the first full year of trade for the gas futures contract. That tops the current worst four-day start to a year of down 14% in 2006, and compares with the best four-day start of up 21% in 1997.

Low heating demand during what is usually the coldest part of the year should allow utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual this month. Front-month gas futures for February delivery fell 1.0 cent, or 0.3%, to settle at $3.710 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Dec. 30. Earlier on Friday, the contract dropped more than 5% to $3.52 per mmBtu, its lowest intraday price since July 2021. For the week, the front month fell about 17%, putting it down about 44% over the past three weeks, its biggest three-week drop in history, according to Refinitiv data.

That keeps the contract in technically oversold territory, with a relative strength index (RSI) below 30 for a seventh day in a row for the first time since April 2019.

Traders said the market's biggest uncertainty remains when Freeport LNG will restart its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas. After several delays from October to November and then to December, Freeport now expects the facility to return in the second half of January, pending regulatory approvals. Analysts have long been saying that Freeport would likely return during the first or second quarter of 2023 because the company still has a lot of work to do to satisfy federal regulators, including training staff in new procedures, before restarting the plant. Whenever Freeport returns, U.S. demand for gas will jump. The plant can turn about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas into LNG, which is about 2% of U.S. daily production. Freeport shut on June 8 after a pipe failure caused an explosion due to inadequate operating and testing procedures, and human error and fatigue, according to a report by consultants hired to review the incident and suggest corrective actions. Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to 98.2 bcfd so far in January, up from 96.7 bcfd in December but still below the monthly record of 99.9 bcfd in November 2022. Even though the weather is expected to remain warmer than normal through late January, Refinitiv projected average U.S. gas demand, including exports, would jump from 110.8 bcfd this week to 121.8 bcfd next week as temperatures ease ahead of what are usually the coldest weeks of the year. In two weeks, however, Refinitiv projected gas demand would ease to 120.5 bcfd as the weather turns more mild. Week ended Week ended Year ago Five-year Jan 6 Dec 30 Jan 6 average (Forecast) (Actual) Jan 6 U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): -31 -213 -183 -151 U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): 2,860 2,891 3,016 2,948 U.S. total storage versus 5-year average -3.0% -6.7%