Crude Death Rate Ranked by Country

[Meredith Poor + 895]

The screen shot attached is from the CIA World Factbook, ranking countries by the deaths per 1000 people in the last year. Serbia has the highest rate at over 16. What is striking, however, is the occurrence of basically every Eastern European country at the top of this list.

The chart below shows Serbia's Fertility Rate, which drops below replacement in the 1950's, and has remained there with perhaps one exception ever since. 1950 to 1975 represents one generation, so if the number of women of childbearing age in 1975 is below that of 1950, then there is a 'generation shortfall'. The number of children born in the next 25 years (1975 to 2000) will reflect the number of childbearing age women in the country, and if this number is smaller than the previous generation, and the fertility rate is still below replacement, then the shortfall becomes more drastic. The women of the 1975 to 2000 generation would 'have to make up for' not only their fertility shortfall, but that of their mothers.

2000 is the 'rollover' to the third generation. The population of women of childbearing age now reflect two generations of 'below replacement'. If their fertility rate remains 'below replacement', then the people born in 1950 are dying in 2025 if the country's life expectancy averages 75 years.

Other than Ukraine, Russia, Afghanistan, and the countries that made up 'Yugoslavia', none of these countries have been in any sustained armed conflict for a long period of time. Those within Europe have had below replacement fertility rates for most of the last 75 years, and this is likely to continue. While some of this can be blamed on COVID, for the most part this is simply a natural imbalance between a small number of fertile women and a large 'overhang' of senior citizens at the very end of their lives.

 

[notsonice + 1,255]

14 minutes ago, Meredith Poor said:

The screen shot attached is from the CIA World Factbook, ranking countries by the deaths per 1000 people in the last year. Serbia has the highest rate at over 16. What is striking, however, is the occurrence of basically every Eastern European country at the top of this list.

The chart below shows Serbia's Fertility Rate, which drops below replacement in the 1950's, and has remained there with perhaps one exception ever since. 1950 to 1975 represents one generation, so if the number of women of childbearing age in 1975 is below that of 1950, then there is a 'generation shortfall'. The number of children born in the next 25 years (1975 to 2000) will reflect the number of childbearing age women in the country, and if this number is smaller than the previous generation, and the fertility rate is still below replacement, then the shortfall becomes more drastic. The women of the 1975 to 2000 generation would 'have to make up for' not only their fertility shortfall, but that of their mothers.

2000 is the 'rollover' to the third generation. The population of women of childbearing age now reflect two generations of 'below replacement'. If their fertility rate remains 'below replacement', then the people born in 1950 are dying in 2025 if the country's life expectancy averages 75 years.

Other than Ukraine, Russia, Afghanistan, and the countries that made up 'Yugoslavia', none of these countries have been in any sustained armed conflict for a long period of time. Those within Europe have had below replacement fertility rates for most of the last 75 years, and this is likely to continue. While some of this can be blamed on COVID, for the most part this is simply a natural imbalance between a small number of fertile women and a large 'overhang' of senior citizens at the very end of their lives.

 

Essentially Communism in Europe is to blame. The effects of not having babies 20, 30 and 40 years ago is staggering. Is the former East Germany dragging down the whole of Germany?

[Meredith Poor + 895]

8 minutes ago, notsonice said:

Essentially Communism in Europe is to blame. The effects of not having babies 20, 30 and 40 years ago is staggering. Is the former East Germany dragging down the whole of Germany?

Italy, Spain, and Greece have all had low numbers for a long time, and France has been 'short' at various times since WW I, and consistently since the 1970's. Communism didn't help, but it isn't the only factor.

Edited August 28, 2022 by Meredith Poor
Correct statements regarding France

[notsonice + 1,255]

12 minutes ago, Meredith Poor said:

Italy, Spain, and Greece have all had low numbers for a long time, and France has been 'short' at various times since WW I, and consistently since the 1970's. Communism didn't help, but it isn't the only factor.

France has always been one step away from Communism....Italy and Greece massive central government controlled countries . None of those 3 countries are fast at anything in the private world.....Even the Catholic Church baby making policies do not get Italy rolling