MASTERMIND + 7 SJ August 21, 2018 As M. King Hubbert (1956) shows, peak oil is about discovering less oil, and eventually producing less oil due to lack of discovery. Oil discoveries in 2017 hit all-time low –Houston Chronicle https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Oil-discoveries-in-2017-hit-all-time-low-12447212.php All-Time Low For Discovered Resources in 2017: Around 7 Billion Barrels of Oil Equivalent https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/all-time-low-discovered-resources-2017/ Global crude oil discoveries plunge to record low, and it's gonna get worsehttps://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/27/global-crude-oil-discoveries-plunge-to-record-low-and-its-gonna-get-worse.html Warning of oil shortages as discoveries fall to record low https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/warning-of-oil-shortages-as-global-discoveries-hit-record-low-nmv3x6l03 Oil Discoveries at 70-Year Low Signal Supply Shortfall Aheadhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-29/oil-discoveries-at-a-70-year-low-signal-a-supply-shortfall-ahead IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lowshttps://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000 IEA warns of oil 'supply crunch' by 2020 with no capex renaissancehttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iea-forecast/iea-warns-of-oil-supply-crunch-by-2020-with-no-capex-renaissance-idUSKBN16D1X1 IEA Forecasts Oil Shortages and Sharp Price Rise by 2020 - Nasdaq https://www.nasdaq.com/article/iea-forecasts-oil-shortages-and-sharp-price-rise-by-2020-cm757712 Oil price will soar without investment in capacity, says watchdoghttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/06/oil-price-investment-fields-iea-india-china International Energy Agency: Oil price spike coming in 2020https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/09/19/iea-oil-price-spike-coming-2020/679584001/ Saudi Arabian oil reserves are overstated by 40% - Wikileakshttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wikileaks Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Warns of World Oil Shortages Aheadhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-minister-sees-end-of-oil-price-slump-1476870790 Saudi Aramco chief warns of looming oil shortagehttps://www.ft.com/content/ed1e8102-212f-11e7-b7d3-163f5a7f229c Saudi Aramco CEO sees oil supply shortage coming as investments, discoveries drophttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-aramco-oil/aramco-ceo-sees-oil-supply-shortage-as-investments-discoveries-drop-idUSKBN19V0KR Saudi Arabia 'may run out of oil to export by 2030’https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/9523903/Saudis-may-run-out-of-oil-to-export-by-2030.html The collapse of Saudi Arabia is inevitablehttp://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/collapse-saudi-arabia-inevitable-1895380679 An oil crisis may be brewing — and it's not because of decreasing demandhttp://www.businessinsider.com/an-oil-crisis-may-be-brewing-and-not-because-of-decreasing-demand-2018-4 $10 Trillion Investment Needed To Avoid Massive Oil Price Spike Says OPEChttps://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/10-Trillion-Investment-Needed-To-Avoid-Massive-Oil-Price-Spike-Says-OPEC.html UAE warns of world oil shortages ahead by 2020 due to industry spending cutshttp://www.arabianindustry.com/oil-gas/news/2016/nov/6/more-spending-cuts-as-uae-predicts-oil-shortages-5531344/ Halliburton CEO says oil will spike due to oil shortages by 2020 after Industry Cutshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-12/halliburton-sees-2020-oil-spike-after-industry-cuts-2-trillion Total CEO warns we are going to have oil shortages around 2020 due to lack of investment & new discoverieshttp://www.boursorama.com/actualites/je-suis-convaincu-qu-on-va-manquer-de-petrole-selon-le-pdg-de-total-patrick-pouyanne-9b2d911a65572f5f989a74319b68d296 Oil shortages could push prices all the way to $80, commodities expert sayshttps://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/27/oil-shortages-could-push-prices-all-the-way-to-80-commodities-expert-says.html Oil is escaping from ‘purgatory,’ as supply fears shift from glut to shortagehttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-oil-is-escaping-from-purgatory-as-supply-glut-turns-to-supply-concern-2017-10-25 World Oil Shortages To Lead To Oil Price Spike By 2020s, warns Goldman Sachs http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Supply-Crunch-To-Lead-To-Oil-Price-Spike-By-2020s-Expert-Says.html HSBC Global Bank: 81% of world liquids production already in decline and world oil shortages aheadhttps://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017 UBS Global Bank warns of industry slowdown and world Oil Shortages by 2020http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/12136886/Oil-slowdown-to-trigger-supply-crisis-by-2020-warns-bank.html Citigroup CEO Ed Morse warns of oil shortages coming soon https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/citi-says-get-ready-for-an-oil-squeeze-than-an-opec-supply-surge 2020s To Be A Decade of Disorder For Oil https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/2020s-To-Be-A-Decade-of-Disorder-For-Oil.html All That New Shale Oil May Not Be Enough as Big Discoveries Drophttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-27/all-that-new-shale-oil-may-not-be-enough-as-big-discoveries-drop Wood Mackenzie warns of oil supply crunch and world oil shortages around 2020https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Next-Oil-Price-Spike-May-Cripple-The-Industry.html People are almost completely ignoring a looming crisis for oilhttp://www.businessinsider.com/the-future-of-oil-supply-and-demand-2016-9 Imminent peak oil could burst US, global economic bubble – studyhttps://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2013/nov/19/peak-oil-economicgrowth Energy watchdog warns oil and electricity shortages could develop as investment fallshttps://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/10/watchdog-warns-of-oil-and-electricity-shortages-as-investment-falls.html Warning: Oil supplies are running out fasthttps://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/warning-oil-supplies-are-running-out-fast-1766585.html Why investors’ should brace for a devastating oil shortage ahead http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-investors-should-brace-for-a-devastating-oil-shock-ahead-2017-07-03 The decline of the world's major oil fieldshttps://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2013/0412/The-decline-of-the-world-s-major-oil-fields North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources Director “We could have worldwide oil crisis by 2021”http://www.kfyrtv.com/content/news/Latest-oil-production-numbers-reveal-modest-drop-also-presents-potential-worldwide-oil-crisis-476721983.html Are We Sleepwalking Into The Next Oil Crisis?https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Are-We-Sleepwalking-Into-The-Next-Oil-Crisis.html Rising gas prices and the coming oil shortagehttp://www.futuresmag.com/2017/03/30/rising-gas-prices-and-coming-oil-shortage 50% Of Proved Oil Reserves May Have Just Vanishedhttps://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/50-Of-Proved-Oil-Reserves-May-Have-Just-Vanished.html It Will Take 131 Years To Replace Oil, And We've Only Got 10http://www.businessinsider.com/131-years-to-replace-oil-2010-11 IEA: Russia’s oil output to reach its peak in 2020http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/IEA-Russia’s-oil-output-to-reach-its-peak-in-2020.html Mexico Oil Reserves Gone in 9 Years Without New Findshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-31/down-10-mexico-oil-reserves-gone-in-9-years-without-new-finds Peak Oil And The Fall Of The Soviet Union: Lessons On The 20th Anniversary Of The Collapsehttp://www.businessinsider.com/peak-oil-and-the-fall-of-the-soviet-union-lessons-on-the-20th-anniversary-of-the-collapse-2011-5 Peak Oil May Be Imminent (Reynolds 2015) International Association for Energy Economicshttps://www.scribd.com/document/378053568/Peak-Oil-May-Be-Imminent-Reynolds-2015 Peak oil is not a myth -The Royal Society of Chemistry https://www.chemistryworld.com/opinion/peak-oil-is-not-a-myth/7102.article The future of oil supply –The Royal Society of Science http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/372/2006/20130179.short Cornell University: Energy Studies in the College of Engineering. The Challenges of Peak Oilhttp://www.geo.cornell.edu/eas/energy/the_challenges/peak_oil.html Has Petroleum Production Peaked, Ending the Era of Easy Oil? https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/has-peak-oil-already-happened/ Peak Oil may keep Climate Change in Checkhttps://www.scientificamerican.com/article/peak-oil-may-keep-catastrophic-climate-change-in-check/ A Regional Oil Extraction and Consumption Model. (Dittmar 2017)https://arxiv.org/pdf/1708.03150.pdf HSBC Global Bank: 81% of world liquids production already in decline and world oil shortages aheadhttps://www.scribd.com/document/367688629/HSBC-Peak-Oil-Report-2017 A global energy assessment (Jefferson 2015)https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/wene.179 Oil's Tipping Point Has Passed (James Murray & Sir David King 2012)https://www.scribd.com/document/375500703/Climate-Policy-Oil-s-Tipping-Point-Has-Passed-Murray-King-2012 Projection of World Fossil Fuels by Country (Mohr, 2015)https://www.scribd.com/document/375110317/Projection-of-World-Fossil-Fuels-by-Country-Mohr-2015 Economic Vulnerability to Peak Oil (Kerschner 2013)https://www.scribd.com/document/375485924/Economic-Vulnerability-to-Peak-Oil-Kerschner-et-Al-2013 Forecasting OPEC crude oil production using a variant Multicyclic Hubbert Model (Ebrahimi 2015)https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0920410515001539 Aging giant oil fields produce more than half of global oil supply and are declining (Hook, 2009)http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421509001281 Forecast for US oil and gas production (Laherrère & Hall 2018)https://www.scribd.com/document/375780747/Forecast-for-US-Oil-and-Gas-Production-Laherrere-Hall-2018 The End of Peak Oil? Why this topic is still relevant despite recent denials (Chapman, 2014)https://www.scribd.com/document/375110698/The-end-of-Peak-Oil-Why-this-topic-is-still-relevant-despite-recent-denials-Chapman-2014 Energy and public health: the challenge of peak petroleum (Frumkin H 2009)https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19413022 USA DOE Study: Peaking of World Oil Production (Hirsch, 2005)https://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf USA GAO Study: Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply. Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Productionhttp://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf Australian Government (Leaked) Study: concludes world peak oil around 2020https://web.archive.org/web/20170415190328/https://www.aspo-australia.org.au/References/Bruce/BITRE-Report-117-Oil_supply_trends-2009.pdf German Military (leaked) Peak Oil study: oil is used in the production of 95% of all industrial goods, so a shortage of oil would collapse the world economy & world governmentshttp://www.energybulletin.net/sites/default/files/Peak Oil_Study EN.pdf China Government Study: China’s Oil Production is About to Peak in 2018 & Coal in 2020 (Wang, 2017)https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12182-017-0187-9 Edinburgh Study: Only 10 years of UK’S North Sea Oil and Gas Remaining (Thompson, 2017)https://www.ed.ac.uk/news/2017/uk-oil-and-gas-reserves-may-last-only-a-decade Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Kirkman + 8,860 August 22, 2018 Despite media commentary to the contrary, oil & gas production exploration and production are not going away any time soon. And global useage of oil & gas (and O&G products such as plastic) are not going away any time soon. "Peak Oil" still hasn't happened, from what I can see. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TXPower + 643 TP August 22, 2018 I would be curious to hear opinions from those on this forum in-the-know. Is it that there are no more undiscovered, large, reasonably recoverable oil reserves somewhere on the planet? Or is it that research and exploration investment is deficient? Or both? TXPower Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Kirkman + 8,860 August 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, TXPower said: I would be curious to hear opinions from those on this forum in-the-know. Is it that there are no more undiscovered, large, reasonably recoverable oil reserves somewhere on the planet? Or is it that research and exploration investment is deficient? Or both? TXPower Without fail over the last few decades, every time this "Peak Oil" scare resurfaces that the world will run out of oil soon, more oil is discovered. The lack of exploration & discovery over the last few years is a direct result of low oil prices. Easy oil is becoming scarcer. But oil is in no danger of running out. For some education, try reading the link in this article: "First and foremost, the “peak fill-in-the-blank” represents a mindset rather than an analytical hypothesis. Neo-Malthusians embrace the notion that resources are insufficient to support the current or projected population, at current or projected income levels, and therefore, conservation and a simpler lifestyle should be pursued, if not mandated. The most extreme case are those who fear overpopulation so intensely that they seem to prefer massive dieoffs from disease as pre-emptive solutions." 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jan van Eck + 7,558 MG August 22, 2018 7 minutes ago, TXPower said: I would be curious to hear opinions from those on this forum in-the-know. Is it that there are no more undiscovered, large, reasonably recoverable oil reserves somewhere on the planet? Or is it that research and exploration investment is deficient? Or both? TXPower There is an interesting theory that oil came down upon the earth in vast sheets of liquid (by the time it was through the atmosphere), rather like asteroids, and that accounts for the Biblical descriptions of "brimstone." Under that theory, oil would have seeped into the earth over the eons, which would suggest that oil is available anywhere and everywhere, but you might have to drill quite a bit deeper for it. The implications are that only a very small portion of the planet's total oil has been found. The further implications are that oil trapped inside or underneath tectonic sheets will travel with the sheets as they are subducted, so that there is quite a bit of deep-sea oil. IN which case, vast new fields should be out there, waiting to be stumbled onto. There is some precedent for this theory. The parallel theory of life is that life forms have always existed, that primitive forms have travelled from planet to planet, dislodged from one planet by a massive asteroid or moon strike, then to travel across space to another, to be deposited and from that new life generates. And a further parallel theory is that certain atomic structures such as carbon and oxygen have followed a similar path of space-travel. I would be reluctant to dismiss these concepts out of hand, remembering that the concept of tectonic plates and continental drift were pooh-poohed fifty years ago. Heresies have this funny way of becoming realities. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MASTERMIND + 7 SJ August 22, 2018 21 minutes ago, TXPower said: I would be curious to hear opinions from those on this forum in-the-know. Is it that there are no more undiscovered, large, reasonably recoverable oil reserves somewhere on the planet? Or is it that research and exploration investment is deficient? Or both? TXPower The easy oil is gone Oil discoveries peaked in the 1960’s. Every year since 1984 oil consumption has exceeded oil discovery. In 2017 oil discoveries were about 7 billion barrels; consumption was about 35 billion barrels Of the world’s 20 largest oil fields, 18 were discovered 1917-1968; 2 in the 1970’s; 0 since. Source: https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt https://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Oil-discoveries-in-2017-hit-all-time-low-12447212.php 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Kirkman + 8,860 August 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said: There is an interesting theory that oil came down upon the earth in vast sheets of liquid (by the time it was through the atmosphere), rather like asteroids, and that accounts for the Biblical descriptions of "brimstone." Under that theory, oil would have seeped into the earth over the eons, which would suggest that oil is available anywhere and everywhere, but you might have to drill quite a bit deeper for it. Um, slight hiccup to this unusual theory, how did that "brimstone" oil that fell from space then proceed to become trapped underneath layers of impermeable rock waaaay underground? Any geologists want to weigh in? @Ian Austin Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TXPower + 643 TP August 22, 2018 Interesting read Tom, thanks. Jan, interesting thoughts as well. One of the articles linked by the OP suggested geologists already knew what rock formations hold oil and all the locations such that no more is to be discovered. I remember an article I read some years ago that suggested oil is constantly being produced and replenished underground by some bacteria or enzyme....... 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MASTERMIND + 7 SJ August 22, 2018 13 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said: Without fail over the last few decades, every time this "Peak Oil" scare resurfaces that the world will run out of oil soon, more oil is discovered. The lack of exploration & discovery over the last few years is a direct result of low oil prices. Easy oil is becoming scarcer. But oil is in no danger of running out. For some education, try reading the link in this article: "First and foremost, the “peak fill-in-the-blank” represents a mindset rather than an analytical hypothesis. Neo-Malthusians embrace the notion that resources are insufficient to support the current or projected population, at current or projected income levels, and therefore, conservation and a simpler lifestyle should be pursued, if not mandated. The most extreme case are those who fear overpopulation so intensely that they seem to prefer massive dieoffs from disease as pre-emptive solutions." New oil discoveries peaked in the 1960's and have declined every decade since.. And every year since 1984 oil consumption has exceeded oil discovery..The problem is geology, not the price of oil... https://imgur.com/a/6dEDt Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
MASTERMIND + 7 SJ August 22, 2018 48 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said: Despite media commentary to the contrary, oil & gas production exploration and production are not going away any time soon. And global useage of oil & gas (and O&G products such as plastic) are not going away any time soon. "Peak Oil" still hasn't happened, from what I can see. Peak conventional oil already happened back in 2006..Just as Dr Hubbert predicted..That is why the price shot up so high ie scarcity.. Source: Nature Oil's Tipping Point Has Passed (James Murray & Sir David King 2012)https://www.scribd.com/document/375500703/Climate-Policy-Oil-s-Tipping-Point-Has-Passed-Murray-King-2012 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Kirkman + 8,860 August 22, 2018 2 hours ago, MASTERMIND said: Peak conventional oil already happened back in 2006..Just as Dr Hubbert predicted..That is why the price shot up so high ie scarcity.. Source: Nature Oil's Tipping Point Has Passed (James Murray & Sir David King 2012)https://www.scribd.com/document/375500703/Climate-Policy-Oil-s-Tipping-Point-Has-Passed-Murray-King-2012 Clearly, we totally disagree about Peak Oil. You are unlikely to change my mind, and I am unlikely to change your mind. Ever. So I'll stop trying. However, pease feel free to try to convince others that Peak Oil has already happened. Good luck with that. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jan van Eck + 7,558 MG August 22, 2018 2 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said: Um, slight hiccup to this unusual theory, how did that "brimstone" oil that fell from space then proceed to become trapped underneath layers of impermeable rock waaaay underground? Any geologists want to weigh in? @Ian Austin That part should be easy enough, Tom. It is unclear from proponents of the theory "when" that oil rain came down. If it arrived before the rock layers were formed - and I am assuming the rock layers are cooled magma from volcanic eruptions - then it gets trapped that way. Another approach would be through plate tectonics. The oil, starting on the surface layers, gets shoved underneath another plate (with that impermeable rock) through subduction. I am not saying that I subscribe to the theory. However, considering that oil has this remarkable consistency as to molecular construction (and set aside the sulfur concentration part, that sulfur could come into the oil later, dependent on geography), it would make sense that it has a common ancestor. If history is any guide, the conventional wisdoms of the yesterdays have been repeatedly overturned, occasionally spectacularly, in the todays'. Food for thought. Dismissing new concepts out of hand is risky for intellectual development. Cheers. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jan van Eck + 7,558 MG August 22, 2018 Picture, if you will, a time long past, billions of years ago, with the universe creating new molecular chains forged in the vast energies of the big bang. One visible result are the comets, those massive formations of frozen water and rock pieces, the water solidified into ice, hurtling around the universe. How did that water form? From the forced forging of hydrogen and oxygen atoms, hammered together with the radiant energy waves of the central core? Sounds about right. Now, how much water was formed? It had to be staggeringly vast amounts, not amenable to calculation, as - and think about this - the entire planet Earth is covered by 70% water, in places 16,000 feet deep, and every last drop of the stuff came from Outer Space - those comets swirling around carrying water in frozen form. Only the tiniest thimbleful of comet ice could have conceivably entered our Solar System, and only the tiniest thimbleful of that ice could have been captured by the Earth's gravitational pull and crashed into this planet. So: just how much "other water" is floating about out there? I would suggest the amount of water alone is so staggeringly vast that it is beyond comprehension. So: if the above is true for water, why would it not also be true for oil? Could there have been these staggeringly massive, vast sheets of oil formed in or after the Big Bang, atoms mashed together with the massive forces unleashed in that nanosecond, of which a small fraction managed to find its way into our solar system and crash into the earth? And if so, does that imply that oil also exists on countless other planets - together with water, and lots of other things? Answer: probably. So if oil, and water, and other stuff, was formed in the crucible of the big Bang, and ended up on Earth by sheer accident of collision due to gravity pull, then you have to assume that the stuff is widely distributed. IN which case, you are going to start finding oil in the unlikeliest of places. And you will be finding quite a lot of the stuff. I am going to stick my neck out and suggest that man has found less than one percent of the planet's oil. Why? Look at the surface: 70% is water, most of that is deep, and nobody has been exploring the bottom of the Marianas Trench. Does anybody really know what is out there? How much oil is trapped under the Himalayas? Under the Adirondacks? Is it even possible to go look, with today's technology? And if not, are you so sure that technology will never, ever be developed? To assume so would be rash. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Epic + 390 cc August 22, 2018 I'd like to point out the Simon-Ehrlich Wager. It was a bet made in 1980 between business professor Julian L. Simon and biologist Paul Ehrlich, betting on resource scarcity over the decade leading up to 1990. In 1968, Ehrlich published "The Population Bomb," which argued that mankind was facing a demographic catastrophe with the rate of population growth quickly outstripping growth in the supply of food and resources, and so the price of all resources will continually increase until...boom. Simon disagreed and so proposed a wager. Simon told Ehrlich to select any raw material he wanted, and Simon bet that the commodity prices would be lower in the future. Ehrlich and his colleagues picked five metals that they thought would undergo big price increases over the next decade: chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten. But all five of Ehrlich's choices fell in price (in inflation-adjusted terms). The point I am trying to make is the same one that Simon made: this planet only has ONE limited resource: the human mind. As long as humanity is willing to live in peace, to work together to invent and create freely, then humanity will never run out of anything, at least not in the long term. Diamonds were rare and expensive, then the human mind invented a way to make them in a lab for dirt-cheap. Trees were once a scarce resource threatened by our relentless consumption of paper, but the human mind also worked to solve that one, first with recycling and then with digital paperless everything. Now, thanks to the human mind, paper is basically free (only $0.25 at Walmart...they are basically giving it away!). So, running out of oil? Fat chance. As long as liberty and justice are allowed to foster peace among mankind, this will never happen. First, as others have pointed out, we could simply find more, or discover new ways of finding it. Second, we could find new ways of extracting it, I mean, just look at shale. Then, of course, there are the things we haven't even considered, like growing oil on farms. I mean, natural oil was made somehow, just like diamonds were made somehow, both of which supposedly took millions of years to form. So there has to be a way to replicate oil production in a lab, and if in a lab, then in a factory or farm designed for mass production. Oil discoveries or no, as long as humans are free to think and create and build, we will have oil, or else we will invent a cheaper substitute. 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tom Kirkman + 8,860 August 22, 2018 2 hours ago, Epic said: In 1968, Ehrlich published "The Population Bomb," which argued that mankind was facing a demographic catastrophe with the rate of population growth quickly outstripping growth in the supply of food and resources, and so the price of all resources will continually increase until...boom. Simon disagreed and so proposed a wager. Simon told Ehrlich to select any raw material he wanted, and Simon bet that the commodity prices would be lower in the future. Ehrlich and his colleagues picked five metals that they thought would undergo big price increases over the next decade: chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten. But all five of Ehrlich's choices fell in price (in inflation-adjusted terms). Kinda off topic, but not really.... For lurkers to peruse, here's a document from the CIA library: A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis "This primer highlights structured analytic techniques—some widely used in the private sector and academia, some unique to the intelligence profession. It is not a comprehensive overview of how intelligence officers conduct analysis. Rather, the primer highlights how structured analytic techniques can help one challenge judgments, identify mental mindsets, stimulate creativity, and manage uncertainty. In short, incorporating regular use of techniques such as these can enable one to structure thinking for wrestling with difficult questions." ... "Using the analytic techniques contained in this primer will assist analysts in dealing with the perennial problems of intelligence: the complexity of international developments, incomplete and ambiguous information, and the inherent limitations of the human mind. Understanding the intentions and capabilities of adversaries and other foreign actors is challenging, especially when either or both are concealed. Moreover, transnational threats today pose even greater complexity, in that they involve multiple actors—including nonstate entities—that can adapt and transform themselves faster than those who seek to monitor and contain them. Finally, globalization has increased the diversity of outcomes when complex, interactive systems such as financial flows, regional economies or the international system as a whole are in flux." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 August 22, 2018 55 minutes ago, Tom Kirkman said: Kinda off topic, but not really.... For lurkers to peruse, here's a document from the CIA library: Thanks for that, Tom. One often wonders whether or not our assumptions (that someone is seriously analyzing potential and existing threats, and the possible actions to take in the event hypothetical scenarios become real) are indeed being supported with preliminary in-depth studies. In a nutshell, it might actually behoove the POTUS to read, or have further summarized for him, the daily intelligence briefing! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jan van Eck + 7,558 MG August 22, 2018 8 hours ago, Epic said: So there has to be a way to replicate oil production in a lab, and if in a lab, then in a factory or farm designed for mass production. Oil discoveries or no, as long as humans are free to think and create and build, we will have oil, or else we will invent a cheaper substitute. Oil and its derivatives, diesel and gasoline, can be easily manufactured in a factory today; it is already a mature technology, known as the Fischer-Tropsch Process. It was developed by German scientists and used extensively to provide fuel for the Wehrmacht and the Luftwaffe, and the base material for the conversion is carbon monoxide gas and hydrogen gas. The Germans used coal as a starter material, but you can do it directly from the gases themselves. You can generate CO gas by burning organic material in an oxygen-limited chamber, and hydrogen gas from electrolysis, for example. Lots of ways to do this. Cheers. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jan van Eck + 7,558 MG August 22, 2018 Interesting that only one person has given an "upvote" tick to my lengthy post on the possibility of oil having arrived on the planet in vast sheets from Outer Space, same as water did. I am chalking that up to a certain lack of curiosity in science. I remember running into that in high school, where the interest was in football and nobody went into the science labs (I was buried in there). Even at Yale the guys were more interested in drinking and chasing women at Vassar than basic physics. Oh, well. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 August 22, 2018 1 minute ago, Jan van Eck said: Interesting that only one person has given an "upvote" tick to my lengthy post on the possibility of oil having arrived on the planet in vast sheets from Outer Space, same as water did. I am chalking that up to a certain lack of curiosity in science. I remember running into that in high school, where the interest was in football and nobody went into the science labs (I was buried in there). Even at Yale the guys were more interested in drinking and chasing women at Vassar than basic physics. Oh, well. Well, I was playing football, drinking and chasing girls then, so now I have to pay attention. 🤔 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW August 22, 2018 39 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said: Interesting that only one person has given an "upvote" tick to my lengthy post on the possibility of oil having arrived on the planet in vast sheets from Outer Space, same as water did. I am chalking that up to a certain lack of curiosity in science. I remember running into that in high school, where the interest was in football and nobody went into the science labs (I was buried in there). Even at Yale the guys were more interested in drinking and chasing women at Vassar than basic physics. Oh, well. Or maybe the spectrum of people on here from one extreme to the other have discounted Abiotic Oil, and variations on that theme as hokum. There is plenty of short chain hydrocarbons out there for sure - Methane, Ethane, Ethylene. One only has to look at Titan but long chain oil molecules - any evidence? I would have thought that even if such substances were created somehow the combined effect of being in a vacuum and subject to radiative forces would have soon broken down into short chain molecules - ie gases and volatile liquids (at earth AT&P) 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JHM + 30 JH August 22, 2018 17 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said: Without fail over the last few decades, every time this "Peak Oil" scare resurfaces that the world will run out of oil soon, more oil is discovered. The lack of exploration & discovery over the last few years is a direct result of low oil prices. Easy oil is becoming scarcer. But oil is in no danger of running out. The question is whether oil will ever be worth the price needed to fully replace produced oil. To say that the price of oil has been too low to support exploration and discovery is to say that demand for oil reserves is insufficient. Is oil really worth spending $20/b just to find more of it? Maybe not. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Epic + 390 cc August 22, 2018 2 hours ago, Jan van Eck said: Oil and its derivatives, diesel and gasoline, can be easily manufactured in a factory today; it is already a mature technology, known as the Fischer-Tropsch Process. It was developed by German scientists and used extensively to provide fuel for the Wehrmacht and the Luftwaffe, and the base material for the conversion is carbon monoxide gas and hydrogen gas. The Germans used coal as a starter material, but you can do it directly from the gases themselves. You can generate CO gas by burning organic material in an oxygen-limited chamber, and hydrogen gas from electrolysis, for example. Lots of ways to do this. Cheers. If I can be done, then I assumed the reason it wasn't being done on a scale large enough to compete with drill oil was due to high costs. I wanted an estimate of those costs, and I found this article: http://www.iepm.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/CTL-final.pdf The article explains that oil made in a factory costs about $65,000 a barrel! I guess the human mind will need to work on that FT process for a while before it can compete with the drill. On the plus side, at least we now know the price top for oil: no matter what happens, oil will never rise above $65,000 per barrel! Hopefully, the human mind will continue to work on this to create more efficiencies and lower that peak oil price. If oil from the ground ever rose to $65,000/barrel, we'd need more blacksmiths to shoe our horses. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NickW + 2,714 NW August 22, 2018 28 minutes ago, Epic said: If I can be done, then I assumed the reason it wasn't being done on a scale large enough to compete with drill oil was due to high costs. I wanted an estimate of those costs, and I found this article: http://www.iepm.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/CTL-final.pdf The article explains that oil made in a factory costs about $65,000 a barrel! I guess the human mind will need to work on that FT process for a while before it can compete with the drill. On the plus side, at least we now know the price top for oil: no matter what happens, oil will never rise above $65,000 per barrel! Hopefully, the human mind will continue to work on this to create more efficiencies and lower that peak oil price. If oil from the ground ever rose to $65,000/barrel, we'd need more blacksmiths to shoe our horses. You have misread that article - its $65000 per barrel capacity per day. So its basically upfront capital cost If you assume the plant has a life of 25 years then that's about $7 a barrel. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Epic + 390 cc August 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, NickW said: You have misread that article - its $65000 per barrel capacity per day. So its basically upfront capital cost If you assume the plant has a life of 25 years then that's about $7 a barrel. My bad. $7 per barrel?!? Why do we not have fields and fields of them built already? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sebastian Meana + 278 August 22, 2018 Peak light crude very likely did happened like six months ago you still have HeavyCrude, Oil sands, and Shales Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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