Tom Kirkman

Petronas Budgeting for $66 oil next year

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Say, that $66 per barrel figure sounds kinda familiar.... to my endless whinging about my hoped for "suitable balance" oil price of $65

Anyway, seems I'm not the only one these days:

Malaysia's Petronas boosts payout to govt after quarterly profit nearly doubles

Petronas will continue to maintain a “prudent view on the outlook,” he said.

The company, which is known to be conservative with its outlook, expects its full-year performance to be “satisfactory.” Petronas is budgeting for an oil price of $66 per barrel for next year.

Petronas will pay the Malaysian government, its sole shareholder, a dividend of 24 billion ringgit ($5.8 billion) this year, up from 16 billion ringgit last year. The company had earlier expected to pay 19 billion ringgit this year.

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Related. Below is my "anonymous" 2015 article in the Malaysian Insider newspaper, which was forced to close under the previous government (the government at that time took a dim view of criticism, and basically forced the closure of the newspaper by restricting its income from advertising, effectively bankrupting the newspaper.) 

Due to government crackdown against dissent at that time, I chose to not use my real name, and the newspaper gave me the pseudonym of "Oilman".

A blogger snagged my article and saved it on his blog (although the fomatting got massacred).

Excerpt of my summary from the end of 2015:

Malaysia headed for significant financial shortfall in 2016 – Oilman

"... Please refer to the earlier numbers quoted above from previous years, for total rough amounts of Petronas dividends, taxes, duties and export taxes.

2012 : RM80 billion
2013 : RM67 billion
2014 : RM73 billion
2015 : RM52 billion
2016 : (projected) RM9 billion in dividends, plus unknown RM billion for taxes, duties and export taxes. (Expected well below RM26 billion.)

Best case scenario for 2016…

RM9 billion from Petronas dividends Plus RM18 billion in taxes, duties and export taxes Equals RM 27 billion.

So, to extrapolate the 2016 numbers:

2012 : RM80 billion
2013 : RM67 billion
2014 : RM73 billion
2015 : RM52 billion
2016 : RM27 billion (projected)

Buckle up, 2016 is going to be far bumpier financially than the PM is admitting. – October 18, 2015.

* Oilman reads The Malaysian Insider."

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