A Somewhat Realistic View of the Near Future for Electric Vehicles Worldwide

[Ron Wagner + 706]

https://www.iea.org/commentaries/electric-cars-fend-off-supply-challenges-to-more-than-double-global-sales

Note: Hybrids will play a big role in sales for the U.S.A. 

Projections may be overly optimistic. 

Large vehicles are not included. They burn the most diesel. 

Pickup trucks for heavy work like towing are not  considered adequately and they burn a lot of gasoline or diesel. 

[Ecocharger + 1,459]

23 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

https://www.iea.org/commentaries/electric-cars-fend-off-supply-challenges-to-more-than-double-global-sales

Note: Hybrids will play a big role in sales for the U.S.A. 

Projections may be overly optimistic. 

Large vehicles are not included. They burn the most diesel. 

Pickup trucks for heavy work like towing are not  considered adequately and they burn a lot of gasoline or diesel. 

This is still just small potatoes, with ICE still about 90% of new car sales, and over 99% in terms of value for the transportation and work vehicle sectors as a whole. 

That means that oil and gasoline still maintain a position of total dominance in the transport sector.

Are you listening, Jay? No? I understand.

Edited January 6, 2023 by Ecocharger

[markslawson + 1,057]

On 1/6/2023 at 9:08 AM, Ron Wagner said:

https://www.iea.org/commentaries/electric-cars-fend-off-supply-challenges-to-more-than-double-global-sales

Note: Hybrids will play a big role in sales for the U.S.A. 

Projections may be overly optimistic. 

Although the figures sound impressive, as another poster points out and as Ron seems to agree (Richie Rich please read the posts before commenting - there is also no need for rudeness) the sales mentioned are small stuff. A closer look at the figures also show that more than half the sales are in China where such cars are far cheaper than they are in Europe and the US.  EV prices have risen in the West, but in China they cost less than petrol cars and there are still subsidies. As the air quality in Chinese cities is way worse than in the West buying an EV also make a lot more sense. However, as Ron notes, freight transport still consumes a lot of  oil (about half of total consumption in the US, as I understand it) and its not being electrified. No end of oil, no net zero. All that said, the pandemic resulted in a notable reduction in oil consumption. Activists should enjoy that victory while its lasts.  

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

[Ecocharger + 1,459]

Gasoline demand remains strongest in good old California, which is PADD 5.

"U.S. gasoline demand rose 1.8% last week, with most of the gains seen in PADD 5, according to Pay with GasBuddy card data, with the holidays now behind us.

Gasoline inventories in the United States fell by 300,000 barrels, according to the latest EIA data, while distillate fuels fell by 1.4 million barrels."

[Ecocharger + 1,459]

16 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Again, only a tiny percentage is pure EV. And Tesla dropped 21% of its EV sales in China year over year. A cliff-falling performance.

[markslawson + 1,057]

20 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Jay - as you've been told this is an indicator of precisely nothing beyond the generous subsidies for these EVs and hybrids. 2,000 Euros paid directly to the buyer. Nice! More seriously it is expected that about 7 per cent of so of cars on the road in Germany will be electric by the end of the decade and that does not even touch areas like freight and airline transport. Oil consumption is not shifting at all. 

[markslawson + 1,057]

This is an article from the Times in the UK, January 6, 2023. The original will be behind a pay wall so I've quoted it in full below. The author is not a happy EV owner.

The spark is gone — you’re better off walking than relying on useless, unreliable vehicles and chargers that never work

As I watch my family strike out on foot across the fields into driving rain and gathering darkness, my wife holding each child’s hand, our new year plans in ruins, while I do what I can to make our dead car safe before abandoning it a mile short of home, full of luggage on a country lane, it occurs to me not for the first time that if we are going to save the planet we will have to find another way. Because electric cars are not the answer.

Yes, it’s the Jaguar again. My doomed bloody £65,000 iPace that has done nothing but fail at everything it was supposed to do for more than two years now, completely dead this time, its lifeless corpse blocking the single-track road.

I can’t even roll it to a safer spot because it can’t be put in neutral. For when an electric car dies, it dies hard. And then lies there as big and grey and not-going-anywhere as the poacher-slain bull elephant I once saw rotting by a roadside in northern Kenya. Just a bit less smelly.

Not that this is unusual. Since I bought my eco dream car in late 2020, in a deluded Thunbergian frenzy, it has spent more time off the road than on it, beached at the dealership for months at a time on account of innumerable electrical calamities, while I galumph around in the big diesel “courtesy cars” they send me under the terms of the warranty.

But this time I don’t want one. And I don’t want my own car back either. I have asked the guys who sold it to me to sell it again, as soon as it is fixed, to the first mug who walks into the shop. Because I am going back to petrol while there is still time.

And if the government really does ban new wet fuel cars after 2030, then we will eventually have to go back to horses. Because the electric vehicle industry is no readier to get a family home from Cornwall at Christmas time (as I was trying to do) than it is to fly us all to Jupiter. The cars are useless, the infrastructure is not there and you’re honestly better off walking. Even on the really long journeys. In fact, especially on the long journeys. The short ones they can just about manage. It’s no wonder Tesla shares are down 71 per cent. It’s all a huge fraud. And, for me, it’s over.

Yet the new owner of my “preloved” premium electric vehicle, fired with a messianic desire to make a better world for his children, will not know this. He will be delighted with his purchase and overjoyed to find there are still six months of warranty left, little suspecting that once that has expired — and with it the free repairs and replacement cars for those long spells off road — he will be functionally carless.

He will be over the moon to learn that it has “a range of up to 292 miles”. No need to tell him what that really means is “220 miles”. Why electric carmakers are allowed to tell these lies is a mystery to me. As it soon will be to him.

Although for the first few days he won’t worry especially. He’ll think he can just nip into a fuel station and charge it up again. Ho ho ho. No need to tell him that two out of three roadside chargers in this country are broken or busy at any one time. Or that the built-in “find my nearest charge point” function doesn’t work, has never worked, and isn’t meant to work.

Or that apps like Zap-Map don’t work either because the chargers they send you to are always either busy or broken or require a membership card you don’t have or an app you can’t download because there’s no 5G here, in the middle of nowhere, where you will now probably die.

Or that the Society of Motor Manufacturers said this week that only 23 new chargers are being installed nationwide each day, of the 100 per day that were promised (as a proud early adopter, I told myself that charging would become easier as the network grew, but it hasn’t grown, while the number of e-drivers has tripled, so it’s actually harder now than it was two years ago).

There are, of course, plus sides to electric ownership. Such as the camaraderie when we encounter each other, tired and weeping at yet another service station with only two chargers, one of which still has the “this fault has been reported” sign on it from when you were here last August, and the other is of the measly 3kWh variety, which means you will have to spend the night in a Travelodge while your stupid drum lazily inhales enough juice to get home.

Together, in the benighted charging zone, we leccy drivers laugh about what fools we are and drool over the diesel hatchbacks nonchalantly filling up across the way (“imagine getting to a fuel station and knowing for sure you will be able to refuel!”) and talk in the hour-long queue at Exeter services about the petrol car we will buy as soon as we get home.

We filled up there last week on the way back from Cornwall, adding two hours to our four-hour journey, by which time Esther wasn’t speaking to me. She’s been telling me to get rid of the iPace since it ruined last summer’s holidays in both Wales and Devon (“If you won’t let us fly any more, at least buy a car that can get us to the places we’re still allowed to go!”).

But I kept begging her to give me one last chance, as if I’d refused to give up a mistress, rather than a dull family car. Until this time, a couple of miles from home, when a message flashed up on the dash: “Assisted braking not available — proceed with caution.” Then: “Steering control unavailable.”

And then, as I inched off the dual carriageway at our turnoff, begging it to make the last mile, children weeping at the scary noises coming from both car and father: “Gearbox fault detected.” CLUNK. WHIRRR. CRACK.

And dead. Nothing. Poached elephant. I called Jaguar Assist (there is a button in the roof that does it directly — most useful feature on the car) who told me they could have a mechanic there in four hours (who would laugh and say, “Can’t help you, pal. You’ve got a software issue there. I’m just a car mechanic. And this isn’t a car, it’s a laptop on wheels.”)

So Esther and the kids headed for home across the sleety wastes, a vision of post-apocalyptic misery like something out of Cormac McCarthy, while I saw out 2022 waiting for a tow-truck. Again.

But don’t let that put you off. I see in the paper that electric car sales are at record levels and production is struggling to keep up with demand. So why not buy mine? It’s clean as a whistle and boasts super-low mileage. After all, it’s hardly been driven . . .
 

 

[RichieRich216 + 454]

On 1/7/2023 at 2:35 PM, Ron Wagner said:

Please be nice Richie. Don't invite censorship. 

WoW with all the WOKE and destruction of Fossil Fuels that emerging POOR nations are now able to enjoy and exploit you the WOKE world rather have a bigger, more rich countries, give them money instead of them using what’s under their countries landmasses. On a scale from a to Z I would say censorship would be Z on the importance of what you’re destroying

 

[RichieRich216 + 454]

If all your work people want to get a young, some thing, just add up all the debt of every country in the world then add up all the GDP of every country in the world and there’s not a chance in hell that I can ever ever be paid back you’re living in an allusion you choose to believe stupidity instead of black and white in front of your face!

[RichieRich216 + 454]

And if anybody complains of grammar and punctuation ghost, dig up Steve Jobs and tell him to build a better iPhone 15!!!

[markslawson + 1,057]

3 hours ago, RichieRich216 said:

WoW with all the WOKE and destruction of Fossil Fuels that emerging POOR nations are now able to enjoy and exploit you the WOKE world rather have a bigger, more rich countries, give them money instead of them using what’s under their countries landmasses. On a scale from a to Z I would say censorship would be Z on the importance of what you’re destroying

RR - your comments don't make any sense. Either argue a point or go and shout at clouds. What we should have done is simply ignore you, which everyone should do from now on. 

[RichieRich216 + 454]

20 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Gasoline demand remains strongest in good old California, which is PADD 5.

"U.S. gasoline demand rose 1.8% last week, with most of the gains seen in PADD 5, according to Pay with GasBuddy card data, with the holidays now behind us.

Gasoline inventories in the United States fell by 300,000 barrels, according to the latest EIA data, while distillate fuels fell by 1.4 million barrels."

Hey Jay remember when you said that money issued by Congress and signed by President could not be changed! 

The House voted 221-210 to claw back more than $70 billion — or nearly 90 percent — of new funding for the IRS, underscoring Republicans’ opposition to the agency expansion and a desire to keep tax enforcement issues in the public eye.

The legislation will certainly die in the Senate over staunch opposition from Democrats. But debate over the bill gives the GOP an opportunity to relitigate what the party views as one of the most unpopular provisions in Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act, which provided $80 billion in new funding to the IRS over 10 years to bolster a wide range of agency functions, including customer service, taxpayer assistance and criminal investigations.

 

Guessing you don’t know what you thought you know!!

[Ron Wagner + 706]

On 1/9/2023 at 1:24 PM, Ecocharger said:

Again, only a tiny percentage is pure EV. And Tesla dropped 21% of its EV sales in China year over year. A cliff-falling performance.

Being able to plug in at home or anywhere there is a plug is a hell of a lot better than having to look for a charging station and wait for it. Jay doesn't see the difference. Of course a natural gas vehicle would make a lot more sense for a large vehicle. 

[RichieRich216 + 454]

20 hours ago, markslawson said:

RR - your comments don't make any sense. Either argue a point or go and shout at clouds. What we should have done is simply ignore you, which everyone should do from now on. 

KNOCK YOUR SELF OUT, YOUR a lonely minority! 

[TailingsPond + 874]

Just now, Ron Wagner said:

Being able to plug in at home or anywhere there is a plug is a hell of a lot better than having to look for a charging station and wait for it. Jay doesn't see the difference. Of course a natural gas vehicle would make a lot more sense for a large vehicle. 

There are far, far, fewer natural gas stations than there are charging stations - they are essentially non-existent.   You can't promote nat gas for vehicles without addressing their much worse refuelling problems than EV's. 

[TailingsPond + 874]

23 hours ago, RichieRich216 said:

And if anybody complains of grammar and punctuation ghost, dig up Steve Jobs and tell him to build a better iPhone 15!!!

You could alternatively learn English.

[TailingsPond + 874]

7 minutes ago, RichieRich216 said:

KNOCK YOURSELF OUT, YOU'RE a lonely minority! 

Fixed for a learning opportunity.

Edited January 11, 2023 by TailingsPond

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

9 hours ago, RichieRich216 said:

Hey Jay remember when you said that money issued by Congress and signed by President could not be changed! 

The House voted 221-210 to claw back more than $70 billion — or nearly 90 percent — of new funding for the IRS, underscoring Republicans’ opposition to the agency expansion and a desire to keep tax enforcement issues in the public eye.

The legislation will certainly die in the Senate over staunch opposition from Democrats. But debate over the bill gives the GOP an opportunity to relitigate what the party views as one of the most unpopular provisions in Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act, which provided $80 billion in new funding to the IRS over 10 years to bolster a wide range of agency functions, including customer service, taxpayer assistance and criminal investigations.

 

Guessing you don’t know what you thought you know!!

And as your quote clearly says: The legislation will certainly die in the Senate over staunch opposition from Democrats. Nothing has changed. My statement stands as correct.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

On 1/9/2023 at 11:24 AM, Ecocharger said:

Again, only a tiny percentage is pure EV. And Tesla dropped 21% of its EV sales in China year over year. A cliff-falling performance.

Pure EV sales were more than pure gasoline and diesel combined in Germany. 

Tesla is just one of many EV companies in China. For the full year 2022, China's retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 5.67 million units, up 90 percent year-on-year.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

On 1/9/2023 at 3:18 PM, markslawson said:

Jay - as you've been told this is an indicator of precisely nothing beyond the generous subsidies for these EVs and hybrids. 2,000 Euros paid directly to the buyer. Nice! More seriously it is expected that about 7 per cent of so of cars on the road in Germany will be electric by the end of the decade and that does not even touch areas like freight and airline transport. Oil consumption is not shifting at all. 

No it is an exact indicator of new car sales and the projection is that 30% of the cars on the road in Germany will be electric in 2030.

And here is one for you:

Tesla Model 3 has ended the Toyota Camry’s 28-year run as the best-selling car in Australia

https://electrek.co/2023/01/10/tesla-ends-camry-best-selling-run-drew-reaction-from-toyota/

Edited January 11, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[RichieRich216 + 454]

21 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

And as your quote clearly says: The legislation will certainly die in the Senate over staunch opposition from Democrats. Nothing has changed. My statement stands as correct.

I don’t think you can 100 percent say that with any surety, but the lower house of Congress can certainly hinder and continue to undermine that bill.

[RichieRich216 + 454]

I believe the next two years will be nothing, but stalling to pass anything I complete still need and be nothing continuing investigations into the past I don’t think anyone in Washington is interested in the future. It’s quite obvious that Washington is broken. What it will take to fix it most likely end up being a Civil War to be honest with you. We’re living in an air that almost every country. If not all GDP is less then that’s owed. And at some point the music’s gonna stop and somebody’s gonna be without a seat.

[RichieRich216 + 454]

There are so many hotspots in the world right now, that can blow up to a full escalation of war that someone might think the use of a small tactical nuclear weapons with a small radius of blast will be the right course of action, and then all bets are off.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

10 minutes ago, RichieRich216 said:

I don’t think you can 100 percent say that with any surety, but the lower house of Congress can certainly hinder and continue to undermine that bill.

 I can say that with 100 percent certainty because even if it somehow got passed it would just be vetoed by Biden and there is absolutely no way that Congress can overcome a veto on the bill. I do suspect the House will try and tag it onto the debt ceiling and hold the country hostage. That will be hilarious because all rich Republican backers will get financially slaughtered if we default. So no that isn't going to pass either. All the Republicans can do is whine and cry and stomp their little feet.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Jay McKinsey