WTI now at $70+ headed for $50s

[Jesse Man + 17]

I will believe it when it actually happens

[sirbinington + 3]

On 9/3/2018 at 9:00 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

Why? It is quite simple. I can't go into it. But the thing that many of you say don't work, (my chart forecasts), are telling me quite clearly now that a some point this year WTI will hit in the 50s. The drop below 70 will come this week. AS regards to my systemes i have been working on, in the Forex market hardly any losses. Here is one more thing, the Emerging Markets are also in for a big drop, as well as the EURO, POUND, and YEN, even GOLD could hit about 1,100.

well your first two predictions have been incorrect maybe the third time you'll get it right....

[ATK + 355]

3 hours ago, J S said:

Oil will go down, Oil will go up, I love this stuff.  No skin in the game.   I am still laughing that this website recommended HK.   The website is useful for news though, I will give it that.

Honestly this place is just an echo chamber, I highly recommend not taking any advice here because they are just random guesses at best

[ATK + 355]

17 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

No idea what is prompting the downvotes for Top Oil Trader's comments here.  Personally, I don't see anything objectionable, unreasonable, offensive or off topic by TOT for this forum.  No reason that I can see for multiple downvoting.  Scratching my head here.  Anyone can please feel free to message me if you have any issues or complaints.

Because JJ's predictions have been wrong, yet he talks as if he has a crystal ball. And when is confronted about it (see my response to him about FA) he just ignores it and responds to whoever agrees with his own views. 

He said 70-80 end of August and now is back to 50, not only is he not trading oil, he even claimed his "trading algorithm" for oil is not very successful. 

For all you guys praising, put up your own money and follow his trades and see how successful they are

Edited September 5, 2018 by ATK

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

DW you posts are very relevant posts that are basesd on fact. Im sure lots of readers find your posts very helpful, keep it up. 

You are getting as good as Tom and the others. Your posts are actually even more relevant than some of the news articles on oil.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

ATK i will look at apple again. Thanks for mentioning it.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Last week I found out there is a prop firm in NYC that will let me trade even 10 mill (you got to be really good),  In London one firm will let me trade 1 mIll, and in Chicago found 1 that will let me trade half mill.

I think i see crowdsource funding co, now looking for good traders, some are looking for stock traders some for forex, some for futures. I dont want to post the links here, since some of you would think im trying to sell something but look it up.

But I started this week, and I just need to prove my skill to them for like 3 weeks, and then you sign some documents and you're in.

I'm quite sure one day I will set up my own type of co, to do that.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

AK, About AAPL yes right now I just looked it's 227. Would say a most opportune time to short AAPL here,  didnt have time to analyze how far it will drop, but it could be serious.

About putting up your money, I will soon be trading a 500,000 k account, based on my live trades, this will be in forex.

And also working on trading a 250k account but that will be down the road a bit.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

My hunch on any downvotes of Top Oil Trader JJ is that the oil price boosters resent anyone going up against them. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

Very telling that no one mentioned natural gas or ethanol as competitors to oil in this conversation. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I dont trade oil not because i cant, but in Forex I get 100x1 margin. So you do the math. So if say I trade full margin and I catch just 1 cent move in a pair, and I have enough to trade 100 contracts thats is 100K windfall. But I dont mind looking at WTI and telling people my thoughts, you may disagree, i have no issue with that, this is just my opinion based on how I trade other things. Same with AAPL, though i don't like trading stocks.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, ATK said:

Because JJ's predictions have been wrong, yet he talks as if he has a crystal ball. And when is confronted about it (see my response to him about FA) he just ignores it and responds to whoever agrees with his own views. 

He said 70-80 end of August and now is back to 50, not only is he not trading oil, he even claimed his "trading algorithm" for oil is not very successful. 

For all you guys praising, put up your own money and follow his trades and see how successful they are

Hi ATK.  JJ talks as if he is sharing what he is doing, nothing more.  He has always been straightforward and told anyone that asked that he does not recommend you trade based on his comments.  You use the word praising; I say words and their meanings are important.  No one is praising JJ that I know of.  Encouraging him?  Yes, I would agree with that, because I think most people wish him the best and if he finds success in what he is doing, that is great.  No one is trading based solely on his advice, nor is anyone paying him to give advice.  If you expected something else, well, go pay someone.  If you find success, come back and tell us about it.  We'll no doubt be happy for you as well.  The world is tough enough without being ridiculed for sharing and discussing.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

All i try to do is pick the right direction. You are right I should not have said 80, but 70s, my bad, you are 100% right.

But the direction was right when I said at 75 we would hit 62.5 yes it did not hit, it hit 63 or so. But the direction was correct. Now I am saying when OIl hit 70s we will hit 50s, so far the direction did go down. Do you know in trading how many 100 of thousands are made in profit on just a 50 cent move. So If I don't predict the absolute low or high, to people that trade, it is of no relevance, as long as you can predict the trend, the trend long enough for someone to get in and out and make lots of money. In Forex if you can predict not a 50 cent move, not 1 cent move, but just a quarter of a cent move, with 100 contracts that is $25,000 profit in the euro. With 10 contracts its 25k in profits.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

For the people who get very angry that I can't predict the exact target to the penny.

The reason I post where I think prices are going, indeed are not for trading advice. I realize that 100% of people here don't trade oil. But most still want to know what is happening to prices based on fundamentals and based on the news what is happening.

The charts simply shorten that path to knowledge. The only reason I came here is because I did back then at 75 have shorts in crude and I wanted to see what people or the news thought about Crude going down. And indeed when I first said prices would drop from 75, the news did not come out until days later or a week later,  that prices would go down because of X. And indeed when prices hit 67 from 63, not until days later did they give reasons for prices to go up, and so they did into the 70s.

Now too when beginning of week prices where 70 and I said they would go down, only later much later did news come out that prices where going down. If I would give trading advice you would need to know the exact Entry Price, the exact Target and the exact Stop loss. So do not take this as trading advice, but simply as to  what will show up in the news in a couple of days. 

AK or others there certainly are websites where they post trading advice and I can't tell you where, since i don't need them for my trading, and when I did try them out, it was just a big laugh.  But those websites simple give you advice  for the day or next hour, and price swings of just 50 cents or so, and those websites are more appropriate places where you can went your anger if an analysts targets 50 cents out does not meet the target. What I am doing here is trying to show the trend way before it becomes the accepted norm, by the so called experts or news organizations, not to give exact entry prices for oil traders.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Just looked at oil prices and this time I gave it a few more seconds of thought just to make sure i was 1000% accurate. The price was about 68.50, so I would say so far I was correct in saying when prices where above 70 that this week they would go down and go below 70 a slow an painful descent towards the 50s, though 50s have not reached, and something could make prices surge, before then. But indeed the trend has turned down. Now when looking at the chart I am still convinced we will much lower prices in WTI and indeed a downtrend has started. The only other websites i may visit once in a while speak about forex not oil. Since I have found that predicting the long long term trend in OIl is indeed very hard, as many hedge-funds found out the hard way, all I am trying to do is predict intermediary trends not the trend out 5 years, since indeed after speaking to people in the industry their whole lifetime, oil is the most volatile product on the market, and even major ceos get it wrong.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 9/4/2018 at 8:10 PM, Tom Kirkman said:

No idea what is prompting the downvotes for Top Oil Trader's comments here.  Personally, I don't see anything objectionable, unreasonable, offensive or off topic by TOT for this forum.  No reason that I can see for multiple downvoting.  Scratching my head here.  Anyone can please feel free to message me if you have any issues or complaints.

Tom, you are operating on a different plane than the downvoters.  Those guys are using the down vote to express disapproval with the post (in this case, by JJ).  As those fellows are new, they have not fully appreciated that, on this forum, it is inappropriate to downvote someone you disagree with; instead, you should put in your own post stating your own views and conclusions.  Those guys will figure it out eventually. 

I remind everyone else:  "downvoting" a post because you disagree with the content is rude. Play nice and post your contrary views instead of hacking off the head of the previous poster, it is better for the Forum. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Tom in the trader world it is like that. Go to any trading chat room, and there always are about 20% angry posters, who will attack anyone for anything, it could be about something you said you ate earlier, you will notice I get attacked regularly especially since I am right in most cases and certain people dont like to be wrong. And i dont have time to read a post unless it is something relevant, but the people who are attacking are other so called traders. I see it daily in many forex forums and stock forums,  and you just learn to ignore those people, but they come back everyday and have no clue, about life or the markets, and in the future I won't even respond, I give them too much respect. Sometimes you speak to them, and begin to realize they live in a different dimension, and you just start feeling sorry for them, but out of pity sometimes i do continue to chat with them. My goal in life is not to become the best trader, I think I crossed that mark long ago. but to understand why year after year 95% of traders cant figure it out. What is it about how they view the market, that makes it very confusing to them.

Now having said that, just took some time to look at the prices again, and spend a little longer time. The last time I saw this pattern on WTI or crude was when price where 75, and they dropped another 12 dollars. Now if we say the same thing happens now when this pattern formed at 70, as when I had the last pattern well, then 70 - 12 would get us to 58, at least.

[catch22 + 244]

were at a crossroads again for many currencies, commodities and assets. The market is confused and looking for direction, hence the swings one way then the other. The USD index is hovering around the 95 level again. Up from here is risk off , and down from here is risk on again - asian market has been playing a wait and see game today. The EU and US markets will hopefully give us some direction but will likely also trade sideways, so i see an even bet right now and therefore wont be trading anything.

Some key events need to play out to give us some direction and these are all likely to coincide at similar timeframe and could produce some fireworks... the markets are looking for clarification on;

1. Various Countries positions on trade to be clarified, deals done or tariffs finalized etc

2. Brexit negotiations finished.

3. The impending financial crisis affecting emerging markets - just how far the damage will spread and the losses to banks quantified.

It seems all of the above might all play out and seem clear in the following months and certainly by the end of year. Insteresting times ahead, expect lots of volatility tho - which im sure we all know is challenging to trade successfully.

My personal position is that the emerging market defaults is a certainty and the losses will be significant. I would not be investing in exposed banks right now. With the previous financial crisis not soon forgotten, it should send significant ripples thru the markets even if the losses are only moderate.
On oil - Oil traded up briefly several days ago whilst the USD fell - the first time its done this in quite some time. It eventually fell down to its current level. I wish i used the USD fall as an indicator for the oil short signal as there was ample time to make a nice trade on that!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

1 hour ago, Jan van Eck said:

Tom, you are operating on a different plane than the downvoters.  Those guys are using the down vote to express disapproval with the post (in this case, by JJ).  As those fellows are new, they have not fully appreciated that, on this forum, it is inappropriate to downvote someone you disagree with; instead, you should put in your own post stating your own views and conclusions.  Those guys will figure it out eventually. 

I remind everyone else:  "downvoting" a post because you disagree with the content is rude. Play nice and post your contrary views instead of hacking off the head of the previous poster, it is better for the Forum. 

Yep, thanks for that gentle reminder, Jan.  While opinions vary wildly on this forum, it generally remains a civilized decorum (although I can be guilty of posting and off topic-ish silly memes).

If you disagree, not an issue, disagreement is to be expected.

I've upvoted and liked posts and comments by others where I disagreed with their opinion, but thought they presented their points and views in a compelling argument.  

This forum is not an echo chamber, and it is global, with a wild cat herd of divergent opinions.

A gentle bit of advice from my profile here:

*** Important !   I do *not* expect others to agree with my opinions.  I tend to have rather unusual opinions about international Oil & Gas.  I *do* hope that readers will fearlessly voice their own views about international oil & gas.

As a former moderator on the Oilpro forum, (and now a moderator here on the Oil Price Community forum) I *encourage* dissent, and *encourage* Freedom of Speech, and *encourage* others to freely voice their views and convictions about oil & gas. 

A diversity of global views is what makes the world a special place.  Conformity is just a slow, painful death of not speaking your mind.  So SPEAK UP.  Please don't be a jerk about about it, though.  If you want others to consider your views, please be willing to consider the views of others.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, Tom Kirkman said:

I've upvoted and liked posts and comments by others where I disagreed with their opinion, but thought they presented their points and views in a compelling argument. 

Same here.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

quick question. Every time i try to see new posts i get this message, got this now 100s of times, and its very time consuming now for me to read new posts.

 

Please confirm you and your intended recipients are not members of the EU

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

quick question. Every time i try to see new posts i get this message, got this now 100s of times, and its very time consuming now for me to read new posts.

 

Please confirm you and your intended recipients are not members of the EU

 

@CMOP @Tom Kirkman  This is just tagging CMOP and Tom so they will be sure to see your question.

Edited September 6, 2018 by Dan Warnick

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Tom i dont understand.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Do they think I work for some org or something?

[Fantom + 6]

Me too