WTI now at $70+ headed for $50s

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 9/8/2018 at 12:18 AM, Epic said:

What exactly is the downvote button for... I mean, besides scaring people with that big scary red circle of scariness.  

 

On 9/8/2018 at 12:20 AM, Rodent said:

to let people know they're being a jackhole.

Not really.  The people using the Red Arrow to "downvote" are thinking in terms of upvotes and downvotes on other forums, where they tend to be ubiquitous.  So they are being used to express disagreement with the poster's comments.  That is inappropriate here.  If you disagree, then do tell us why and write your reply post outlining your thinking.  Hitting that downvote button just to say: "I don't agree, and I think you are dumb"  is both rude and antithetical to the purposes of the Oilprice forum, which is after all to encourage healthy discussion of difficult topics. 

[Epic + 390]

6 minutes ago, Jan van Eck said:

The people using the Red Arrow to "downvote" are thinking in terms of upvotes and downvotes on other forums

Ok, since we are on the topic of voting etiquette, is there any reasoning behind choosing between the blue circle of love or the green circle with the up-arrow?  When I have desired to support a post, I have simply been randomly selecting between the two based solely on a whim rather than by applying any logical reasoning to my selection process.  

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

On 9/7/2018 at 7:14 PM, oilfutures said:

@Dan WarnickWarnickWarniWarnicWarWarnicWarnickWarnickWarniW

What do you see the catalyst would be for $30 oil?  

The short-term catalyst will be the mild winter to be experienced in the "snow belt" of the US, specifically in New England where oil heat is the dominant fuel.  It would be coupled with a mild winter in Germany where there is quite a bit of oil heat, notwithstanding the gas pipelines that have been built.  Oil pricing, which is a function of trader greed and fear, and has little if anything to do with actual supply and consumption values, gets shoved downstairs when traders see a drop in short-term consumption due to mild winter and low heating oil use. they then fear collapsing prices, and start to sell their futures positions.  Those sell pressures self-reinforce, and soon enough you have a full-on market rout.  That rout bottoms out when the players run out of cash, many will be wiped out in the process.  That "bottom" is a trading artifice, and has nothing to do with actual consumption. 

Since small swings in consumption trigger these wild trader swings  (greed and fear, remember), all it will take is a very mild winter - which is currently predicted - and the bottom falls out of the market.  Couple that with Mr. Trump selling big chunks out of the Strategic (Navy) reserve, the pool originally intended to fuel the Navy in time of war, and you will see this psychology of sales of futures contracts take hold.  Now that problem will be that there will be a shortage of buyers (and even more pressure if the "shorts" pile on) so that will exaggerate the swing.  Personally, it think the price of crude will end up at the marginal cost of production of Permian shale, which various experts seem to think is about $37.  It would be a logical shelf for traders to try to settle their nerves.  Then again, if the traders are wiped out, thus there being fewer buyers in the pool for the upswing, that price may well continue to drop further.  Don't be shocked if WTI goes all the way to $27.  (I am no trading expert, don't buy or sell oil futures on anything I say, remember this is just one guy talking, hey what does he know, eh?).

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

5 minutes ago, Epic said:

Ok, since we are on the topic of voting etiquette, is there any reasoning behind choosing between the blue circle of love or the green circle with the up-arrow?  When I have desired to support a post, I have simply been randomly selecting between the two based solely on a whim rather than by applying any logical reasoning to my selection process.  

That depends on whether or not you are voting on something that Rodi wrote!

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well from the charts looks like wti right now 68.30 is gonna move up, maybe even quite a bit. After all most traders will looks at the war as positive for higher oil prices. Prices are simply a reflection of investors reflections, and there is no denying what investors will feel tomorrow. That war will move the oil prices higher.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

One way that oil could hit 30 is if they start drilling in the artic where they found 30 Trillion plus barrels or oil. They may even be giving for free then. US was given 4 Trillion of the pie, Russia 22 Trillion.

[catch22 + 244]

3 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Well from the charts looks like wti right now 68.30 is gonna move up, maybe even quite a bit. After all most traders will looks at the war as positive for higher oil prices. Prices are simply a reflection of investors reflections, and there is no denying what investors will feel tomorrow. That war will move the oil prices higher.

This is why you dont have full credibility... you cant just look at a short term chart and see that its moving up and call - "its gonna move up". Anybody can do that, and nobody can successfully trade with that ability alone either. Making calls like this is a waste of time - start a thread saying oil is going to head down to $50, then a few day in, you change your mind and call something else - seriously, whats the point?

On another note - i discovered a strategy which has worked for me twice now to save a loosing trade on the forex markets. It wont work all the time, and it assumes there is some reasonable volatility which caused the loosing position to happen (as is all too familar);

Say to you take a long position and it starts going south... keep averaging down until youve reached about half what your prepared to risk in terms of that particular trade position each time the fast moving dips bottom out.  If the market trend is against your original position it wont come back up far enough on the rallies before it keeps going south, but stop averaging down and just wait - eventually it has to stop somewhere and your long positions will be way down in the red. Now we have to assume there is some volatility in play here and you need to know the market your playing in be firm in the knowledge the market will bounce back up again - but probably not as far as your loosing position open price as the trend is now bearish. There will be some corrections and many like to play the fibonacci numbers here, but once the market has notably turned back in your favour we need take more long positions of equal lot size to the sum of the original averaged position size and hopefully (if you got the turn right) these will be winning trades. Once the bounce has occured and your back to approx net zero or approx half way between the loosers and winners - close all trades for an approx net zero PnL. If the price turns around and heads south again - take a short position as it passes the close price of the other trades in recoginition that you originally got the trend wrong and it will continue south again for a winning position this time - this last trade will likely be a profitable trade.

Working for me - see how you go

 

 

 

[Rodent + 1,424]

2 hours ago, catch22 said:

This is why you dont have full credibility... you cant just look at a short term chart and see that its moving up and call - "its gonna move up". Anybody can do that, and nobody can successfully trade with that ability alone either. Making calls like this is a waste of time - start a thread saying oil is going to head down to $50, then a few day in, you change your mind and call something else - seriously, whats the point?

In all fairness, forecasting oil prices is a tough racket. You're either too high or too low, the odds of hitting a specific number are astronomically high. 

We appreciate anyone's input on oil prices, from geopolitical experts, experienced traders, novice traders, and everything in between. While you can disagree with anyone and everyone for their forecast, let's steer clear of berating someone for their ideas. We encourage debate here, but we do not tolerate personal attacks.

We will be running a contest soon to see who has the most accurate oil price predictions, so be on the lookout! You'll all be able to weigh in on future oil prices. STAY TUNED!

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

AS you see i said it was moving up and it did. Its very simple my friend. The hard part is predicting the long term and the date it is supposed to happen. But short term is a piece of cake. yesterday I saw a very experienced trader go short WTI futures at 68, explained him he was wrong, of course he didnt listen. This is why i posted here that WTI was going up,  but that nevertheless it would not be a spectacular long. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Now this long could now hit 68.8 or even 69.6. Once one of those prices hit, it will be easy to see, if there will be a continuation or reversal. But lets say 68.8 has a high prob of being hit next.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Rodent you are right oil prices is  a tough racket. I did not realize so many people day trade WTI, this is their bread and butter, well bread if they don't know how to trade. And I now realize how often these traders take the wrong trade, I was watching the historic trades of someone who some consider the best oil trader, where for example at 75 we went long WTI and got hit hard when it tanked. And this is someone who does this day in and day out. I don't watch oil to much, but I may one day, If i decide to trade it full time. After all it is kind of obvious.

[Rodent + 1,424]

11 hours ago, Epic said:

Ok, since we are on the topic of voting etiquette, is there any reasoning behind choosing between the blue circle of love or the green circle with the up-arrow?  When I have desired to support a post, I have simply been randomly selecting between the two based solely on a whim rather than by applying any logical reasoning to my selection process.  

That is a great question. I have an answer for you that you might not like. 

As far as the leaderboards go and such, there is no difference between the heart and the green upvote--each are worth one point so the developers tell me.

The difference between the two is subtle, if there is any difference at all. I would use the heart for when I like what someone is saying, whether it is acknowledging a shout out or just funny or witty. The green upvote I would consider a stronger show of support for the content in the post (like hey, you made a really good point). Others may have different opinions on when they use hearts or green upvotes--that's fine too. There really isn't a hard and fast rule here.

I usually reserve downvotes for someone who I feel is out of line. I have liked posts i don't agree with, simply because they had a well thought out opinion and/or provoked further content or discussion on the board. 

[Rodent + 1,424]

11 hours ago, Jan van Eck said:

That depends on whether or not you are voting on something that Rodi wrote!

Right. I expect lots of blue hearts. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

2 minutes ago, Rodent said:

Right. I expect lots of blue hearts. 

I'd hit it twice, but the Machine won't allow it!

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well down we go looks like 68.4 was the high. Very bearish signal here, now 65 is now possible.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Hello hello. Ok again i took a 3 sec look at wti now. No i did not set up fibos or support resistance levels etc. So WTI is now 67.8 and for now it looks like its going down to 66, jsut based on a simple system, with no bells and whistles. Could that change in 2 hours? indeed. Will i be watching wti in 2 hours? no. On this computer i have 5 different software's for charts, each one giving me a different view of whatever i want to look at, in my case forex. For example on eur been long in Asian and shorted in UK from 1.1635 its now at 1.1585 and still holding short so this would be just a 50 pip move, not a bad mode, and this is after a long move i took for 55 pips, and the day is still young. From what i see, the WTI is a lot easier to trade, than the EURO or the Pound, or Yen. Not sure If i wil ever trade the WTI all day, but it could happen, but i need another 2 screens and a pc, on this pc its already about to croak, so i could dedicate myself to it. Maybe i could start a non profit co, to buy a pc and 2 screens just to watch WTI all day, wink.

[YocumOil 0]

From a young perspective, JJ, how can WSJ make a valid argument that forecasts project the peak of oil demand as soon as 2023? Obviously not likely, but I am trying to understand why they would say such a thing when we have the arctic basin untapped and BP's projections out to 2045? Perhaps a little too macro for your level though...

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

rodent i say do what you wish, i really really dont care, im ok, i dont even look at it

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Yes the artic basin wont be drilled until 2050 so no worries there. but eventually oil will be really cheap. Even now as people are switching to other sources oil will be pressured to go down, no matter what happens, that is the goal of most consumer countries.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

ATK how you doing? Great. Ok if we look at wti about 67.5. Be ready for a big move down soon, maybe today. I watch the charts to much some time i feel my brain (whats left of it is about ready to explode. Why do i say wti will soon fall again? Charts.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Do you still see Gold going down to 1100, or has the chart changed on that?

[oilfutures + 39]

@Dan WarnickWarnickWarniWarnWWaWarnWarnickWarnickWarniWarnWW

[oilfutures + 39]

I hope no one was short oil, yikes.  Might need to change the thread to oil going to 70 before 50.

Edited September 11, 2018 by oilfutures

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

yo my friend. you know what i will spend 3 min on the gold chart just for you, i will let you know.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Oil shot up, well i was wrong in it going to 66.  for now going now for 70s. guess something happened.