WTI now at $70+ headed for $50s

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

29 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Tom i dont understand.

CMOP and Tom Kirkman are moderators and can direct your question to the proper persons.

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Tom i dont understand.

That EU message shouldn't be popping up like that.  @CMOP should be able to advise.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

3 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Do they think I work for some org or something?

No.  The EU has special Rules for matters related to posting on the internet, regarding anything that might be construed as advice, which hold the host platform personally liable.  That is lawyer-talk, directed at anybody and everybody.  Not technically applicable to Oilprice, but it creeps in there anyway. 

[ATK + 355]

Look you guys can claim he's right, but he changes his projections every few days and none of you have acknowledged the fact he said 70-80 by the end of august.

My issue is that he makes his techniques sound so safistiacted (seriously read the very first post of this thread) giving the impression to others that he knows what's going on when in reality he just makes a bunch of guesses.

Like I said before, you guys praising him, put up your own money and follow his predictions and see how you do

I won't disrupt your guy's echo chamber anymore 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

AK how are you? How was your day? If you need a hug let me know. Anytime you have something you wish to say, give me a shout. Or just post your concerns here, we are all here to help in any way. Cheers!

(I think I should be scared to see your next post now)

 

[CMOP + 227]

4 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

That EU message shouldn't be popping up like that.  @CMOP should be able to advise.

@Fantom @Top Oil Trader @Tom Kirkman we are handling this ASAP. Thank you for letting us know. Will be disabled within the next hour. We have it set to the Refer a Friend page - however with this new update it may have leaked to other parts. 

Huge thanks for the feedback - if anything like this happens again - please let us know and we'll get it fixed immediately. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

AK im posting this just for you, since you have been nitpitting every word i say. So now I will speak your language, though you say you are a trader, I see you as part of the 95%, or the 909090.

So I have now setup the charts on WTI exactly the same way as I do in Forex. Only difference is I set up the WTI to be able to take larger moves, than I do in FOREX, where if i can catch just a .5% move im happy.

On WTI i have set it so that It should be able to catch at least 2% until the next counter move.

So from 69.70 I when the short triggered, so right now we already made close to 2%. If you want I can even say it triggered now at 68.80 so that you can hold me to it in case it jumps above 70.

So let us say the trade is short from 68.80, and I will let you know when I get an exit. Please dont take this trade notice i have not given any stop loss or target.

Next time I post in regards to this, it will be when I see WTI should be exited.

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So I wont be proving my point again about trading oil. Since like I said I don't watch it, but just a few seconds a day, so I can tell which direction its headed. But as you see WTI is now at almost breaking 67 and will soon break 65.

[AMR + 6]

Asian currencies are going down against dollar, big factor was high oil prices

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/forex/rupee-vs-dollar-external-factors-behind-free-fall-says-jaitley/videoshow/65692865.cms

 

 

 

[Refman + 207]

Not an oil trader, just an oil industry employee that works on a trading floor. My non-scientific based gut feeling is that while we might see a short term retrace to low $60's, after that we're heading higher. That being said, I'm often wrong, which is why I don't bet on oil futures.

[oilfutures + 39]

This thread is epic.  It involved oil predictions, downvote etiquettes, random EU disclaimers, and hugs.

 This thread belongs in the oilprice.com hall of fame

[Rodent + 1,424]

42 minutes ago, oilfutures said:

This thread is epic.  It involved oil predictions, downvote etiquettes, random EU disclaimers, and hugs.

 This thread belongs in the oilprice.com hall of fame

What?? someone is giving out hugs? that is strictly against community guidelines. 

My oil price prediction is that oil is going up up up in med term (WTI $80).

Venezuela's production falls by the day and is set for collapse. Libya can't keep it together for more than a month at a time, Saudi Arabia can't turn it on quickly enough if at all, and fears re: sanctions on Iran will intensify as we approach Nov 4. Iran will throw a hissy fit if other ME producers ramp up to try to take their market share. 

I bet Canada is kicking itself now. What a time to run short of pipeline capacity...!!

*I hold no positions in any energy related stock and I am not an advisor or broker, in case someone was pondering the wisdom of my advice.  

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Oil indeed is volatile. 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 hours ago, Rodent said:

What?? someone is giving out hugs? that is strictly against community guidelines. 

Don't piss off Rodent.  She's locked and loaded!  If she wants a hug, don't hesitate.  If she don't, don't even think about it.  😎

[Soothsayer~ + 2]

So... let me get this straight:

1.     Global demand for oil is on the rise.

2.     Steel prices are set to break through all-time highs with Trump tariffs.

3.     U.S. oil inventories are depleting rapidly (currently at 2015 levels).

4.     Oil states in the Gulf are presently under State of Emergency.

5.     Oil sanctions are to be imposed on importers on Iranian Oil by November 4th.

6.     WTI technicals are clearly implicating an uptrend in the upcoming months.

These are all current affairs that should  lead one to extrapolate rising oil prices; unless, of course, you are guessing, or you are referring to oil prices in a few years or so. I don't see why you or anyone would believe in prices being that low at year's end.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

As you can see if i just spend 2 min on a chart and plan the entry trading oil is a piece of cake. And oil today.

Won't be giving any more examples of how I would trade or enter the oil market, all I wanted was to prove a point. And when I say the market is going from 70 - 50s I am not giving an exact target but a direction, that things will not fare well for oil, for how long? Only one person  can answer that. I can only write what I see based on my calcs. But since I don't use a crystal ball, I can't come up with an exact target. 

[Rodent + 1,424]

7 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

As you can see if i just spend 2 min on a chart and plan the entry trading oil is a piece of cake. And oil today.

Won't be giving any more examples of how I would trade or enter the oil market, all I wanted was to prove a point. And when I say the market is going from 70 - 50s I am not giving an exact target but a direction, that things will not fare well for oil, for how long? Only one person  can answer that. I can only write what I see based on my calcs. But since I don't use a crystal ball, I can't come up with an exact target. 

this is one of the most interesting discussions in the community. the differing ideas about where oil prices are headed are precisely what makes it interesting. If everyone agreed there would be no point in any discussions about it. Nor would trading be profitable, of course. 

keep it coming, folks!

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

As you can see if i just spend 2 min on a chart and plan the entry trading oil is a piece of cake. And oil today.

Won't be giving any more examples of how I would trade or enter the oil market, all I wanted was to prove a point. And when I say the market is going from 70 - 50s I am not giving an exact target but a direction, that things will not fare well for oil, for how long? Only one person  can answer that. I can only write what I see based on my calcs. But since I don't use a crystal ball, I can't come up with an exact target. 

The simple fact is, you are the only one commenting on how you would trade or enter the oil market.  I have not seen one other detractor give their specifics, hence I get quite a kick out of anyone telling you that you have been "wrong" by less than a $1.  I also am not trading oil, at this moment, due to a number of factors not which the least of is your continued chart interpretations.  However, I share your feeling that WTI will be trading down to $50 sooner rather than later and I even believe it will drop to the $30s.  However, not even I wish to put my entry points or date predictions in writing, so again it is only you doing that, and I appreciate the extra viewpoint.  Please keep your eyes on oil and let us know your thoughts.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

6 hours ago, Soothsayer~ said:

So... let me get this straight:

1.     Global demand for oil is on the rise.  Global economies are in trouble and/or at precipitously uncertain levels (take your pick as to the region and the reasons).  If this continues, as I believe it will, demand will fall as it historically does in a recessionary period.

2.     Steel prices are set to break through all-time highs with Trump tariffs.  Not sure how this affects oil prices?  Please share your thoughts on this.

3.     U.S. oil inventories are depleting rapidly (currently at 2015 levels).  To me, this statistic is largely deceptive and is used by long position promoters.  Inventories are not depleted, but reduced and continuously replenished.

4.     Oil states in the Gulf are presently under State of Emergency.  The Gulf oil states are always under some sort of SoE or other, but the oil has historically continued to flow at the high end of normal output.  What "normal" output is - is actually anyone's guess at any given time because the producers actually keep accurate figures very close to their chests.  The only real gauge of output, in my opinion, are the ships departing producer locations and arriving at their destinations to deliver orders, and the known capacity of those ships.  Even pipeline figures, it would seem, can be fudged at will.  Or is there some sort of publicly viewable gauge people can go look at?

5.     Oil sanctions are to be imposed on importers on Iranian Oil by November 4th.  The effects of this have been factored into oil prices months ago.  Longs will use this again in the coming days to try to get another up move, but any up move should be short lived.  They will also use the Straits of Hormuz scare tactic again in the coming days and weeks, but that won't create a lasting effect either, unless 5 or more ships are sunk there (my estimation as I don't believe less than 5 ships can shut down the straits).

6.     WTI technicals are clearly implicating an uptrend in the upcoming months.  I'm assuming this means, basically, charts?  If so, JJ has a view that opposes yours and, with respect, I'm going to side with JJ on it.  Again, I said respectfully, nothing against your opinion here.

These are all current affairs that should  lead one to extrapolate rising oil prices; unless, of course, you are guessing, or you are referring to oil prices in a few years or so. I don't see why you or anyone would believe in prices being that low at year's end.  I don't think it is necessary to basically accuse another person of guessing, when that is essentially what we all do when we interpret things that are not right in front of us or in any way in our control.  World events, and even statistics, are being manipulated by every one of the players you and I both just referenced, and that is always done for their own benefit.  I mean, do you really believe that any of these reporting entities have your or my best interests in mind?  I agree with you that prices may not be as low as JJ's or my forecasts by the end of the year, the jury is still out on that and changing daily.  However, I believe the trend is down and will continue to be so for the next year or so at least.

Please see my thoughts to your points above.  Keep in mind that my comments are delivered with respect and I fully acknowledge that you may be right and I may be wrong.  Just discussing things, since there are in this world other realities and viewpoints.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

On 9/5/2018 at 12:40 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

Dan you and Mr Edwards are exactly correct, Everytime oil will go much above 70 it will only make the path to alternatives much faster. Even if oil hits 50, they will still be at full steam coming out with new Teslars, Solar window power, solar powered cars etc. Yes the war is on, and has been for many years. Dan remember my target for the dow 29,969. Maybe shortly after that, we could see fireworks.

I opened an inverse position against the S&P500 at around 2,894 and it is is now at around 2,874 in a downward short term trend.  That's as far as my charting skills go, really, so I'm happy with my position so far.

[oilfutures + 39]

@Dan WarnickWarnickWarniWarnicWarWarnicWarnickWarnickWarniW

What do you see the catalyst would be for $30 oil?  

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

4 hours ago, oilfutures said:

@Dan WarnickWarnickWarniWarnicWarWarnicWarnickWarnickWarniW

What do you see the catalyst would be for $30 oil?  

The sum of all fears.  Worldwide recession that ends up being recognized as an actual depression after a couple of years, demand falling to its lowest levels since, I don't know, the last depression.  In other words, if the world economy drops into the worst of the worst scenarios, oil will fall, oil companies will go bankrupt, banks that lend to oil companies will be wiped out (not just because they overextended to oil companies, but...).  I know most people think there is no way this scenario is possible, that is most people that don't learn from history and instead choose to believe in the "new" Wall Street analysts and our current incredibly intelligent government financial experts.  Any successful plan must look at worst case scenarios, and this one is most certainly possible, even if it may not seem probable.

[Epic + 390]

On 9/5/2018 at 11:15 PM, Jan van Eck said:

I remind everyone else:  "downvoting" a post because you disagree with the content is rude. Play nice and post your contrary views instead of hacking off the head of the previous poster, it is better for the Forum.

What exactly is the downvote button for... I mean, besides scaring people with that big scary red circle of scariness.  

[Rodent + 1,424]

1 minute ago, Epic said:

What exactly is the downvote button for... I mean, besides scaring people with that big scary red circle of scariness.  

to let people know they're being a jackhole.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well here is the problem, Syria being attacked should make prices go up. However, the $ is going up to, and I see it as continuing to go up.

So it will be very volatile to say the least. Could the war in Syria cause any issues in supply? Even if it does, OPEC will come up with the deficit. So therefore the only factor that will cause the Oil prices to move is the move up in the $.  However, most people will be going long oil, due to the war in Syria.