WTI now at $70+ headed for $50s

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Cold, hard, stinky truth!

[ATK + 355]

Lol oh man I'm just shaking my head reading these posts, good luck with your guesses and echo chamber. I really suggest you guys actually read about the oil  industry and market as a whole because some of these ideas are borderline delusional 

Later ✌

Edited September 12, 2018 by ATK

[catch22 + 244]

12 hours ago, ATK said:

The things is China only imports 6% of its crude from the US so I think the trade war demand argument gets a little overblown

of course its overblown, thats the whole point - its only sentiment causing the volatility, nothing fundamental...

so  when at any time a new tweet hits the wires or a talking head on the idiot box decides to open their mouth can cause market chaos, its just not something wise to be involved in... well not in any sort of highly leveraged way anyway.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

5 hours ago, Chinedu said:

what is actually making the oil price going up

I think it is because the U.S. is reporting a large draw down on oil stock, or inventory, as relates to the change in this number from the last month or two, to now.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So as promised before those oil stats came out. Oil still sitting at 69.999 loooking ready to go up, or most are expecting those stats to be bad and oil to go through the roof. All I can say is this, the oil news is comming out in bout 2 hour. The prices will first go down until that news come out. That news may actually based on my chart bring up wti. So I expect a drop ffrom 69.99 maybe down to 68.xx then after the news, a move up on WTI. This is as close as i can see it right now.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so if i was trading crude, who knows maybe one day, ill trade everything else, and want a challenge, and why not give Crude a go. If i was a trader in crude I would short here at 69.99 after a nice drop cover at about 9am or 9:30am EST, and not trade the rest of the day. Beside figuring out where prices we, I also take risk into account.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

OK news came out, bad for the $. 

However, Gold is headed down.

Crude headed up.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

However, though eur should be going up, my charts tell me to relax, and remain short. Still in profitable shorts from euro yesterdays high

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So im not saying i would be short or long oil now, basically for today would stay away from oil, its trading at .70.01

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so if i watch oil in as much detail as i did today, trading oil is easy, its almost would seem that trading oil could be taught in grade school. But in the past I did not waste to much time on oil, and it was the eventual target. Just like now the eventual target is 50s, and so far even though oil now looks bit strong, it does not change where i see oil eventually.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Guys thanks for calling me out, and making me pay better attention to the intraday moves of oil. Thanks to you I am now watching 5 charts of oil, using 2  42 inch monitors, will keep them on all the time, since It also tells me where the euro is going. I now have 5 charts on Euro, 5 on oil and 5 on the dollar, you would think I may have an edge here.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

3 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Guys thanks for calling me out, and making me pay better attention to the intraday moves of oil. Thanks to you I am now watching 5 charts of oil, using 2  42 inch monitors, will keep them on all the time, since It also tells me where the euro is going. I now have 5 charts on Euro, 5 on oil and 5 on the dollar, you would think I may have an edge here.

Actually, you do not really have an edge; you have some fancy data stream.  It is how you interpret the data stream that would give you an edge - maybe.   

And it remains a rather large "maybe."  Sorry to bust your bubble, but what you are attempting to do is read the psychological mind  of persons unknown, unseen, and unnamed - who are out there in the ether.   That strikes me as alchemy.  Cheers.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Not alchemy but smoke and mirrors. wink

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

44 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

OK news came out, bad for the $. 

However, Gold is headed down.

Crude headed up.

Gold has a strange way of going down.  1201.20 now.

[oilfutures + 39]

Looks like we have learned, not many actually have an edge on oil from a TA perspective.  Unless JJ is sending out signals that oil will do the opposite of what he says it will.  

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Jan speaking about alchemy, im sure you heard of soros who wrote the book alchemy of finance. The same guy that made 1.1 Bill on one currency move and back then when oil hit 130s said it was a bubble. Here is him speaking about alchemy in finance, so I guess you are on to something.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Oil futures indeed im now watching 5 screens just on ta for oil. by 5 i have oil in different setups, based on fibs, butterfly, sr, some indicators, and price action so i can always stay on top, in case what I think doesnt happen. So Oil i told you when oil hit 70.01 that i think it is going up, and it went up 36 cents, so am i saying the opposite now too, oil futures. You see in trading you can have a view, but when you see that the action of traders doesnt agree, you simply take a 5 cents or 10 cent loss. Now I can see very quickly if what i think is panning out, before i get a comment from someone respectable such as you or atk or rodent.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So here is my observation. I do see oil dropping a bit later, the move up, is very weak, based on one of the charts. At least 3 need to show weakness before i would short, but Crude is showing the beginning of weakness here. All im saying if i had to trade oil full time, would not be long right now.

[oilfutures + 39]

Alright JJ, 10 minutes before inventory report.  I take it you see weakness after the report?

[oilfutures + 39]

JJ - I am a simple man and I know you use a lot of tools for your charting.  All I see is CL has just been back testing MAs, I am not sure everything you look at but seems to me the trend will not change until we get below the 200 MA which we have not made it below in over a year.  Aug 16th was the closest we got all year.  If you buy after the 9 MA cross over on the daily and sell below then you would be doing well all year.

[ATK + 355]

JJ just stop, until you take the time to learn about the market and what drives it, no amount of chart staring is going to help you. I get a sense you are very stubborn and ultimately marry positions.

And for everyone saying "fear and greed drive the market" on some level yes, but in the short term, it's supply and demand. Too much oil? Price goes down. Too little oil? Price goes up. That's all you need to know to be successful 

That's why these oil reports ultimately drive the market on a week to week basis 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

41 minutes ago, ATK said:

And for everyone saying "fear and greed drive the market" on some level yes, but in the short term, it's supply and demand. Too much oil? Price goes down. Too little oil? Price goes up. That's all you need to know to be successful 

That's why these oil reports ultimately drive the market on a week to week basis 

Sorry, Andrew, that is incorrect.  First, there is no situation where the supply of oil is not equal to the consumption of oil.  Absent whatever is in floating storage and sitting in shore tanks, the supply and the consumption are the same number.  

What you are suggesting by inference is that there is some other, magical, tabulation out in the ether that sets forth the principle that if there were more oil being produced, then it would be both "demanded," and purchased, and consumed.  There is no evidence for this. 

Instead, what you have are these thousands of traders treating the oil markets as a gigantic poker game, and everybody is engaging in a game of blind man's bluff, trying to figure out what the other fellow is thinking and what card he might play.  Oil production (and consumption) take years to swing and move.  These price variations that show up in markets have zero to do with actual production numbers; they represent guesses about the intentions of other players, and it is the last trade recorded that triggers and pushes the other traders into some responsive emulation, either to copycat and push in the same direction, or to think the other fellow is bluffing and to play in the other direction.  Either way, it is a casino bet, utterly divorced from the reality of actual consumption  (and, for that matter, even consumption trends). 

[jonathan yoakum + 13]

6 hours ago, ATK said:

Too much oil? Price goes down. Too little oil? Price goes up. That's all you need to know to be successful 

That's why these oil reports ultimately drive the market on a week to week

 

Just like a CoT that is constantly interpreted wrong by disregarding the Commercial stats, EIA reports etc receive the same silly slight by ignoring gasoline/distillate statistics.

When media and certain traders (mostly trading coaches) plays that game all I'm thinking is how many casualties are going to fall for the pump this round and where are possible entry points to fade with the algos?

The market is here to take our money, not follow structure or protocol.

[catch22 + 244]

On 9/12/2018 at 5:13 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

 

im long oil now - 69.80... up up and away i think... reason for trade - USD massive downward movement, risk off mood, oil didnt respond as quickly giving time to open the trade. Target is $72...

Edited September 13, 2018 by catch22

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

ok will open a live acct soon and trade crude. will let u know.