WTI now at $70+ headed for $50s

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

when i trade oil it will be different hang in there.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

ok im live. I spoke to them when prices where 69.4, we looked at their software said i was going down, called them back technical issues oil dropped a buck. Anyways will start on the morrow, if you hear something let me know.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

anyone know reason for drop?

[oilfutures + 39]

On 9/11/2018 at 12:00 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

20 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

anyone know reason for drop?

Hurricane weaken and supply concerns.  From a TA perspective what we've seen is crude back testing a cluster of MAs

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So my first live trade 1 lot, long crude

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

why i went long. Well 1] had to enter a trade. 2] saw $ going down. 3] chart said up.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 minute ago, Top Oil Trader said:

So my first live trade 1 lot, long crude

Good luck!

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

already down $200, i need more than luck.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so i see 72 + next week. Man this is like being at Dineylan, quoting Mike Tyson.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

9 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

already down $200, i need more than luck.

FWIW, I think oil is going to head down rather steadily for the near future.  This is based solely on supply vs consumption (which is decreasing), sanctions, U.S. production increases, reality that KSA is still pumping near capacity, Russia is pumping near capacity, ship movements information, false news related to anything the serious $$ long players try to exploit (hurricanes, etc., thus providing short term bumps).  Anyway, let's see how this works out for you.  I wish you luck.

One other important thing:  The dollar is not getting "weaker" no matter what any headline says.  That is a sucker's headline if I ever saw one.

Edited September 13, 2018 by Dan Warnick

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

so i see 72 + next week. Man this is like being at Dineylan, quoting Mike Tyson.

At first I thought you had misspelled Disneyland, and then I thought about it.......😁 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

reversed short after 300 buck loss

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

oilfutures thanks for update, dont be shy, keep it comming

[ATK + 355]

The time to sell was yesterday when oil was at 71.23, IEA report came out this week saying opec upted it's production in august. I'll be buying calls for next week.

How about you guys post your trades and then we'll see how much you guys actually understand the oil market. I've been right each week for the past month and a half, oilfutures can back me up

[ATK + 355]

On 9/12/2018 at 2:21 PM, Jan van Eck said:

Sorry, Andrew, that is incorrect.  First, there is no situation where the supply of oil is not equal to the consumption of oil.  Absent whatever is in floating storage and sitting in shore tanks, the supply and the consumption are the same number.  

What you are suggesting by inference is that there is some other, magical, tabulation out in the ether that sets forth the principle that if there were more oil being produced, then it would be both "demanded," and purchased, and consumed.  There is no evidence for this. 

Instead, what you have are these thousands of traders treating the oil markets as a gigantic poker game, and everybody is engaging in a game of blind man's bluff, trying to figure out what the other fellow is thinking and what card he might play.  Oil production (and consumption) take years to swing and move.  These price variations that show up in markets have zero to do with actual production numbers; they represent guesses about the intentions of other players, and it is the last trade recorded that triggers and pushes the other traders into some responsive emulation, either to copycat and push in the same direction, or to think the other fellow is bluffing and to play in the other direction.  Either way, it is a casino bet, utterly divorced from the reality of actual consumption  (and, for that matter, even consumption trends). 

Lol JJ you are the last person who should be giving advice about trading oil

[ATK + 355]

It's funny how sure everyone is about how things work in the oil market and yet the majority of you are constantly wrong

If your a new trader, do your own research and ignore this forum

Edited September 13, 2018 by ATK

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

ATK so what do you trade in oil, which future and how many contracts?

How long have you traded?

What do you look at to make your decisions how it moves?

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I started trading but really didnt have time to analyze and plan. There is a saying, "Failure to plan, is planning to fai".  So i would say most trades i did where intuiton, not based on good chart reading, and got out of most before they moved. Tomorrow nother day, buro!

Now having said that I see  Crude headed for 65, so i need to catch and up move and just sit it out. Problem is my broker doesnt allow me to hold overnight, i guess this is common in oil, so  i need to cover daily.

I noticed in the last 2 hours, if prices are down, they move up, from short covering, by about 50 cents.

So i guess i need to catch a move daily, and close the acct.

 

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

does crude start moving in london open? or just in nymex at 8:30am, since im watching every tick now, i will get a much better feel for oil.

But in summary i do see it going down now to 65. That doesnt mean im short, I will wait until it goes to 69.xx before entering.

[ramsram700 0]

Well oil price hit high now become get take rest at the level 67$ ...

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Indeed 67 is possible.

[The Lancer + 6]

Hey ppls,

Just wondering is the storm near China and Phil going to cause a supply or demand issue?  If the one in USA spiked oil because of supply issues what does this location do?

Also does oil have to come back to a support level before moving on higher? Seems interesting that apparently there is more supply now than demand but prices are also high... Aus it costs almost a $1.80+ and none of us have had a decent pay rise in over 8 years... So why would demand stay high when prices are also so high?

 

[catch22 + 244]

my trade is down 0.80c... so im in the red pretty bad right now, but im going to hang in there a little longer - i beleive it will turn any moment along with a bunch of other overbought/oversold currencies at this moment...  However more further downward movement to $68.30 and ill be stopping out... Cant win em all

Edited September 14, 2018 by catch22

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Ok there, unfortunately its is cumbersome to see what is going on, most of my screens are still with forex data on them.

 

Anyways, i did short the wti here at 68.84 i do expect 67 maybe later, to keep it safe i just shorted 1 lot, though my account I could short 5. As i  get better in timing this stuff, and i get another pc here, and nother 55 inch screen, so i can immerse myself in the charts, I will be able to trade more positions.

Lancer about China, anytime there will be a supply issue the US can easily take care of it, or OPEC, so all demands will be taken care of.

And like one of the veteran posters said here, somone who has been here for years, he sees the prices of oil floating between 50 and 80.

So everytime there is some fear oil will spike to somewhere under 80. And everytime they got it wrong and they over produced prices will fall to the low 60s or even 50s. 

Oil prices are very efficient, people are getting away from oil use, texas is producing more and more efficiently, that prices will remain stable and wobble from 50s to high 70s.

As a trader just go with the flow.

 

 

 

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

JS to setup a hedge fund will cost 100k for fees.