Reality catching up with EV forecasts

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

1 hour ago, Michael Sanches said:

Methinks Cuba didn't get the memo.

"Sir, it will cost $1,800 to repair your vehicle. Could I interest you in a new $40,000 EV, instead?"

Ever been to Cuba? I have, and i can assure you there are other factors like blatant poverty and mismanagement of wealth by Castro and his boys let alone the fact you couldnt import anything unless you were part of the government.

Those repair bills will keep going higher until the vehicle isnt worth repairing anymore, then theres the running costs, general maintenance, servicing etc etc.

The point I was making is most major auto manufacturers arent going to be making ICE vehicles so the percentage of ICE on the road will start to shrink very quickly when that happens.

Edited February 1, 2023 by Rob Plant

[Ron Wagner + 714]

18 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Ron does America have the infrastructure built for this compared to EV charging stations?

In the UK/Europe we certainly dont, if thats the same in America NG most definitely isnt the best choice as where do you refuel let alone buy a NG vehicle.

However maybe it suits some, here are the pros and cons for CNG v EV

https://www.godigit.com/motor-insurance/car-insurance/find/electric-car-vs-cng-car

Yes, there is a basic infrastructure for truck transport to all but the most distant and low population areas like Montana and the Dakotas. It is mainly used for all sizes of trucks, buses, dump trucks, tankers, etc. 

https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/natural_gas_locations.html#/find/nearest?fuel=CNG

Europe has 2,600 natural gas stations

https://web.uta.com/en/fuel/fuel-types-57ep/natural-gas-cng#:~:text=Fuel station network&text=In Germany%2C customers can refuel,gas fuel stations Europe-wide.

China 

9,000 stations. 

https://www.petrolplaza.com/news/21890https://www.glpautogas.info/data/cng-stations-list-china.html

India

India to have 8,000 CNG stations by 2024: Oil Ministerhttps://www.thehindubusinessline.com/companies/india-to-have-8000-cng-stations-by-2024-oil-minister/article65643951.ece

Edited February 2, 2023 by Ron Wagner
reference

[Ron Wagner + 714]

18 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

You said " I think your foot is lodged in your mouth with your eyes closed." I guess you need to practice what you preach Ron

You started it. Not me. Am I wrong? If so I apologize. 

[Ron Wagner + 714]

On 1/30/2023 at 11:26 AM, Michael Sanches said:

I bought an '89 Tercel in '91 with 20,000 miles on it. Besides oil changes and a set of tires, I replaced the dome light and left headlight by '01 (120,000 miles on it) when I foolishly bought a '98 Malibu with 20,000 miles to pamper myself. By '11 I was at 120,000 miles and had spent $8,000 in repairs and sold it to my (excellent and honest) mechanic for $300 with a blown head gasket. I went to Asia to do the digital nomad thing. Returning 3 years ago, I bought a nice, used Hyundai.

I wish someone would make the 1989 Tercel again. I would buy one for each of my nieces and nephews (max = $20,000 apiece, I'm not rich).

First see the million and multi million mile ICE vehicles for low prices. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-au1w4-cWs&t=35s

CHEAP Used Cars That Last 1,000,000 Miles!

[Ron Wagner + 714]

13 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Ever been to Cuba? I have, and i can assure you there are other factors like blatant poverty and mismanagement of wealth by Castro and his boys let alone the fact you couldnt import anything unless you were part of the government.

Those repair bills will keep going higher until the vehicle isnt worth repairing anymore, then theres the running costs, general maintenance, servicing etc etc.

The point I was making is most major auto manufacturers arent going to be making ICE vehicles so the percentage of ICE on the road will start to shrink very quickly when that happens.

That is to be determined in the future, it has not happened yet. EVs would IMHO have to be imported from China to be competitive with Japanese and Korean small ICE cars which run from about $16,000 to 24,000. Most have long warranties that are on the drivetrain. Much longer than the EV batteries. You can buy a lot of gasoline for the price difference and have a lot easier time filling up. 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

5 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

You started it. Not me. Am I wrong? If so I apologize. 

I dont think either of us are snowflakes so lets move on 😉

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

5 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

That is to be determined in the future, it has not happened yet. EVs would IMHO have to be imported from China to be competitive with Japanese and Korean small ICE cars which run from about $16,000 to 24,000. Most have long warranties that are on the drivetrain. Much longer than the EV batteries. You can buy a lot of gasoline for the price difference and have a lot easier time filling up. 

Ron those auto manufacturers arent going to change their policy unless climate change is disproven and believed by the masses and more importantly governments around the world. Thats not going to happen (rightly or wrongly).

I cant see Chinese EV's in the US or Europe taking off as there is still a massive distrust and poor sentiment to China follwing Covid. Their brands arent established and people will generally buy brands they know and trust. To break that as Ive stated before they would have to offer a like for like EV but 50% less to buy, if they can do that and the US and Europe allow the imports then they have a good chance. However it wont happen as Europe definitely will add massive duties to these cars to protect their own in country manufacturing, and I'm sure the US would do the same.

Japan and S.Korea are political friends with the US and Europe and have trade agreements so they have the advantge here. As technology improves with EV's I'm sure both Japanese and S.Korean EV cars will become more popular and affordable.

See attachment below which shows this is already happening

https://topelectricsuv.com/featured/cheapest-electric-car-models/#:~:text=9 Cheapest electric car models in the U.S.,8 Hyundai Ioniq 5 (%2441%2C450) ... More items

Edited February 2, 2023 by Rob Plant

[Ron Wagner + 714]

17 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Ron those auto manufacturers arent going to change their policy unless climate change is disproven and believed by the masses and more importantly governments around the world. Thats not going to happen (rightly or wrongly).

I cant see Chinese EV's in the US or Europe taking off as there is still a massive distrust and poor sentiment to China follwing Covid. Their brands arent established and people will generally buy brands they know and trust. To break that as Ive stated before they would have to offer a like for like EV but 50% less to buy, if they can do that and the US and Europe allow the imports then they have a good chance. However it wont happen as Europe definitely will add massive duties to these cars to protect their own in country manufacturing, and I'm sure the US would do the same.

Japan and S.Korea are political friends with the US and Europe and have trade agreements so they have the advantge here. As technology improves with EV's I'm sure both Japanese and S.Korean EV cars will become more popular and affordable.

See attachment below which shows this is already happening

https://topelectricsuv.com/featured/cheapest-electric-car-models/#:~:text=9 Cheapest electric car models in the U.S.,8 Hyundai Ioniq 5 (%2441%2C450) ... More items

My Chevy dealer doesn't even have one bolt in stock! I was going to buy a mild hybrid Ford Maverick over a year ago and they wouldn't even take an order because Ford wouldn't allow them too. Times have changed but it looks like there are a lot of problems still delaying mass production and sales of EVs. I have three good vehicles and will just hold onto them. It used to be that the new year model would be available in the fall. 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

6 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

My Chevy dealer doesn't even have one bolt in stock! I was going to buy a mild hybrid Ford Maverick over a year ago and they wouldn't even take an order because Ford wouldn't allow them too. Times have changed but it looks like there are a lot of problems still delaying mass production and sales of EVs. I have three good vehicles and will just hold onto them. It used to be that the new year model would be available in the fall. 

I agree and it probably makes no economical sense for you to buy a hybrid or an EV.

My stepfather wanted to buy an Audi hybrid as he thought he was saving the planet. When I told him the price difference for the same car but the ICE version and how few miles he does each year in his current vehicle he rightly changed his mind. At 88 years old an absolute waste of the extra £5K it would have cost him.

[Ron Wagner + 714]

See the average number of miles driven per year by age of the driver.

https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm

 

Edited February 5, 2023 by Ron Wagner

[TailingsPond + 1,013]

On 2/3/2023 at 1:31 AM, Rob Plant said:

I agree and it probably makes no economical sense for you to buy a hybrid or an EV.

My stepfather wanted to buy an Audi hybrid as he thought he was saving the planet. When I told him the price difference for the same car but the ICE version and how few miles he does each year in his current vehicle he rightly changed his mind. At 88 years old an absolute waste of the extra £5K it would have cost him.

Very few people who are 88 are fit to be driving at all.

Poor vision, slow reaction times, and a high risk of sudden medical incapacitation (e.g. heart attack).

 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

13 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

Very few people who are 88 are fit to be driving at all.

Poor vision, slow reaction times, and a high risk of sudden medical incapacitation (e.g. heart attack).

 

Most elderly people do have slower reaction times but tend to drive a lot slower to compensate.

Everbody is different so to say people over a certain age shouldnt be driving is frankly wrong

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

Global EV Sales for 2022

Global EV sales continued strong. A total of 10,5 million new BEVs and PHEVs were delivered during 2022, an increase of +55 % compared to 2021. 

https://www.ev-volumes.com/

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

6 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Global EV Sales for 2022

Global EV sales continued strong. A total of 10,5 million new BEVs and PHEVs were delivered during 2022, an increase of +55 % compared to 2021. 

https://www.ev-volumes.com/

In Europe demand is hugely outstripping supply otherwise the numbers would be even greater.

[notsonice + 1,266]

15 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Global EV Sales for 2022

Global EV sales continued strong. A total of 10,5 million new BEVs and PHEVs were delivered during 2022, an increase of +55 % compared to 2021. 

https://www.ev-volumes.com/

Your chart speaks volumes

 

Peak Oil has happened.....now oil will suffer a slow death due to reduced gasoline demand ( because of EV/hybrids and the replacement of older ICE vehicles with more efficient ICE vehicles

2025 and Ev/Hybrids hit 25 million sales and the car market starts to see end of increasing ICE passenger/light truck vehicles on the road

 

2026 is the start of a real decline in the total number of ICE passenger/light truck vehicles on the road