E-car Sales Collapse

[Jeroen Goudswaard + 57]

4 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Will never happen. Only 1.25% of EU vehicles are EV, that is about as high as it will ever get.

EVs are filling fields in China as unwanted and unsold.

15.4% of new cars in the EU were BEV. Market share at the end of 2022 was 2.4%. And so far in 2023 more BEVs were sold than diesel cars.

[Jeroen Goudswaard + 57]

On 9/13/2023 at 5:31 AM, Ecocharger said:

Norway is now fully on board for a fossil fuel future.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/norway-approves-more-than-18-bln-oil-gas-investments-2023-06-28/

"The government says Norway's oil and gas resources are essential to Europe's energy security and will be needed for decades to come."

What Norway sells and what they do internally are two different things. It is pointless to compare the two. Norway has been the largest producer of natural gas in Europe for 30 years, and they have never used any of it themselves.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,546]

8 hours ago, Jeroen Goudswaard said:

What Norway sells and what they do internally are two different things. It is pointless to compare the two. Norway has been the largest producer of natural gas in Europe for 30 years, and they have never used any of it themselves.

Never used any of it for themselves...Ya don't say...not a bad quarter for a population of 5 million.

• European Markets

Norway's wealth fund posts $84 billion quarterly profit

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/norways-wealth-fund-posts-84-billion-first-quarter-profit-2023-04-21/

 

What Should Norway Do With An Extra $170 Billion From Oil And Gas Revenues?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bobeccles/2023/07/24/what-should-norway-do-with-an-extra-170-billion-from-oil-revenues/?sh=613c672773f4

 

 

Edited September 18, 2023 by Eyes Wide Open

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

On 9/13/2023 at 12:27 PM, Ecocharger said:

The "short term" is what? Two or three generations? That is the time-frame for major fossil fuel investments to be played out. By that time the ludicrous claims of the Green hoax will have long since been disproved.

Norway claims that fossil fuels are here to stay.

"The government says Norway's oil and gas resources are essential to Europe's energy security and will be needed for decades to come."

Implicit in this assessment is the view that bans on fossil fuel cars will not be happening.

What is explicit is that the bans don't go into effect until 12 years from now and the average age of a car in Europe is 12 years. So it will be 2 or 3 decades before EV's take over the fleet. 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,546]

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

What is explicit is that the bans don't go into effect until 12 years from now and the average age of a car in Europe is 12 years. So it will be 2 or 3 decades before EV's take over the fleet. 

My my...what a difference a few quarters make. And to think all this change simply due to a... Inflation Reduction Act. So much capital so little time.

[Ecocharger + 1,383]

On 9/18/2023 at 7:38 AM, Jeroen Goudswaard said:

What Norway sells and what they do internally are two different things. It is pointless to compare the two. Norway has been the largest producer of natural gas in Europe for 30 years, and they have never used any of it themselves.

They are committing to a long term demand for fossil fuels. 

[Ecocharger + 1,383]

On 9/18/2023 at 5:26 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

What is explicit is that the bans don't go into effect until 12 years from now and the average age of a car in Europe is 12 years. So it will be 2 or 3 decades before EV's take over the fleet. 

They will never take over the fleet...they are less than 2% if the fleet today, and there is a brick wall for demand beyond the niche which EVs occupy.

 

On 9/18/2023 at 7:36 AM, Jeroen Goudswaard said:

15.4% of new cars in the EU were BEV. Market share at the end of 2022 was 2.4%. And so far in 2023 more BEVs were sold than diesel cars.

We are not talking about market share but share of rolling stock, which for EVs is miniscule in Europe.

 

[Ecocharger + 1,383]

On 9/18/2023 at 5:26 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

What is explicit is that the bans don't go into effect until 12 years from now and the average age of a car in Europe is 12 years. So it will be 2 or 3 decades before EV's take over the fleet. 

Those bans are a moving target, they can be pushed back overnight on a whim by government, as the British have already done today.

Now that the garbage science supporting EVs and climate panic is being dismantled, those bans will disappear.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Those bans are a moving target, they can be pushed back overnight on a whim by government, as the British have already done today.

Now that the garbage science supporting EVs and climate panic is being dismantled, those bans will disappear.

Or brought forward again. Labour will take over government in 2025:

"The opposition Labour Party, well ahead in opinion polls, said it would stick with the original 2030 target."

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-interior-minister-braverman-we-need-pragmatic-approach-net-zero-2023-09-20/

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

They will never take over the fleet...they are less than 2% if the fleet today, and there is a brick wall for demand beyond the niche which EVs occupy.

 

We are not talking about market share but share of rolling stock, which for EVs is miniscule in Europe.

 

Once they take over the new car market it is inevitable that they take over the fleet. Cars last for about 24 years and they don't come from anywhere other than the new car market.

EV sales just keep going up! 

Here are the August US numbers, PEV sales up 71.5% YoY!:

Plug-In Vehicle Sales

A total of 126,294 plug-in vehicles (99,089 BEVs and 27,205 PHEVs) were sold during August 2023 in the United States, up 71.5% from the sales in August 2022. PEVs captured 9.51% of total LDV sales this month.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

On 9/13/2023 at 2:08 AM, Rob Plant said:

Yep like I said I don't agree with the policies myself, I'm all for a free market and the freedom of choice, or we're no better than China IMHO!

Do you have the freedom to buy a car without seat belts? How about headlights? I guess we are no better than China. 

The market likes certianity. We are all much better off when gov't provides good guidance to the markets. In the case at hand economists have shown that 100% EV will happen by about 2035 with or without regulation. But the regulation makes it much better for industry planning and improves the market.

The free market is a myth. Successful markets rely on government regulation. There are no examples otherwise. 

[Ecocharger + 1,383]

31 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Or brought forward again. Labour will take over government in 2025:

"The opposition Labour Party, well ahead in opinion polls, said it would stick with the original 2030 target."

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-interior-minister-braverman-we-need-pragmatic-approach-net-zero-2023-09-20/

That is how governments get defeated, by sticking to wild and disastrous targets. Watch for Labour to jump ship when any deadline approaches.

[Ecocharger + 1,383]

10 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Do you have the freedom to buy a car without seat belts? How about headlights? I guess we are no better than China. 

The market likes certianity. We are all much better off when gov't provides good guidance to the markets. In the case at hand economists have shown that 100% EV will happen by about 2035 with or without regulation. But the regulation makes it much better for industry planning and improves the market.

The free market is a myth. Successful markets rely on government regulation. There are no examples otherwise. 

There is an example this year, with private EVs declining in UK sales by a rate of 27%. That is without government subsides to the hapless consumer.

Governments only need to interfere in the marketplace during wartime, peacetime intervention violates market signals and produces suboptimal allocation of resources.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

7 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

There is an example this year, with private EVs declining in UK sales by a rate of 27%. That is without government subsides to the hapless consumer.

Governments only need to interfere in the marketplace during wartime, peacetime intervention violates market signals and produces suboptimal allocation of resources.

The only example is that of EV sales continuing to increase.

All UK private vehicle sales market share declined this year, not just private EV

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

No, gov't regulation is needed every day, as it is in the US, the largest economy in the world.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,383]

3 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The only example is that of EV sales continuing to increase.

All UK private vehicle sales market share declined this year, not just private EV

https://www.smmt.co.uk/vehicle-data/car-registrations/

No, gov't regulation is needed every day, as it is in the US, the largest economy in the world.

Nonsense, when government subsidies were withdrawn from the UK private EV sales, that market plunged at a rate of 27% this past year. Huge government subsidies are required to prop up EV sales, which are now faltering in the U.S. with cars piling up on the sales lots. A disaster of unfathomable proportions.

Government subsidies are like addictive drugs, they are almost impossible to shake off. One subsidy program breeds another, and governments waste tons of money on worthless projects.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

Just now, Ecocharger said:

Nonsense, when government subsidies were withdrawn from the UK private EV sales, that market plunged at a rate of 27% this past year. Huge government subsidies are required to prop up EV sales, which are now faltering in the U.S. with cars piling up on the sales lots. A disaster of unfathomable proportions.

EV sales keep going up in the UK and US. 

Plug-In Vehicle Sales in US

A total of 126,294 plug-in vehicles (99,089 BEVs and 27,205 PHEVs) were sold during August 2023 in the United States, up 71.5% from the sales in August 2022. PEVs captured 9.51% of total LDV sales this month.

[Ecocharger + 1,383]

9 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

EV sales keep going up in the UK and US. 

Plug-In Vehicle Sales in US

A total of 126,294 plug-in vehicles (99,089 BEVs and 27,205 PHEVs) were sold during August 2023 in the United States, up 71.5% from the sales in August 2022. PEVs captured 9.51% of total LDV sales this month.

And in the UK private EV sales plunged 27% this year when the consumer incentives were removed, and are staying down.

EVs are piling up in U.S. car lots begging for non-existent customers.

The Revolution is over and done.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

4 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

And in the UK private EV sales plunged 27% this year when the consumer incentives were removed, and are staying down.

EVs are piling up in U.S. car lots begging for non-existent customers.

The Revolution is over and done.

You say that every year and yet EV sales keep climbing. 17% growth in the UK and 71% growth in the US. 

And in Germany:

 battery electric cars (BEV) sales, which increased by almost 171 percent year-over-year to 86,649. That's about 31.7 percent of the total market (compared to 16.1 percent a year ago).

https://insideevs.com/news/687160/germany-electric-car-sales-august2023/#:~:text=Plug-in electric car registrations in Germany – August 2023&text=BEVs%3A 355%2C575 – up 56%,12% and 24.2% market share

[turbguy + 1,414]

As the worldwide price of petroleum fuels increase, more consumers will carefully consider moving to EV's of all types.

That's one way that the market "works".

Just sayin'...

Edited September 21, 2023 by turbguy

[Rob Plant + 2,650]

12 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Do you have the freedom to buy a car without seat belts? How about headlights? I guess we are no better than China. 

The market likes certianity. We are all much better off when gov't provides good guidance to the markets. In the case at hand economists have shown that 100% EV will happen by about 2035 with or without regulation. But the regulation makes it much better for industry planning and improves the market.

The free market is a myth. Successful markets rely on government regulation. There are no examples otherwise. 

Jay you're being obtuse!

Seat belts and headlights are a basic safety necessity!

You might as well have said wheels or an engine!

Yes governments like telling the people what to do, but the people dont always like listening and often kick back pretty damn hard against certain policies. When that happens the government generally backs down as it clearly isnt a popular policy and therefore wont get them elected at the next election.

Government policies and laws determine if they get back in power, end of story!

[Rob Plant + 2,650]

11 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

That is how governments get defeated, by sticking to wild and disastrous targets. Watch for Labour to jump ship when any deadline approaches.

Yes they will conform to 2035 IMHO

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

Jay you're being obtuse!

Seat belts and headlights are a basic safety necessity!

You might as well have said wheels or an engine!

Yes governments like telling the people what to do, but the people dont always like listening and often kick back pretty damn hard against certain policies. When that happens the government generally backs down as it clearly isnt a popular policy and therefore wont get them elected at the next election.

Government policies and laws determine if they get back in power, end of story!

Well the EV mandate in California is quite popular and Sunak moving back the ban date isn't going to get him any votes. New research shows two thirds of drivers want to go electric in the UK https://www.smmt.co.uk/2023/09/consumer-support-key-to-faster-and-fairer-ev-transition-as-market-enters-new-phase/ So no I don't accept your premise. People welcome a lot of government regulation. 

Emission free cars are also a basic safety necessity. People complained just like you are about seat belts when they became mandatory. They claimed that they weren't a basic safety necessity and that it was gov't trampling choice. Now they are seen as a basic safety necessity and very few complain. 

Predictably, most went along with the new inconvenience. Equally predictably, others were incensed. Newspapers carried stories of protesters loudly proclaiming their right to self-determination and lamenting the rise of the nanny state. The data clearly demonstrated that lives could be saved. Nevertheless, a vocal minority asserted their natural right to decide what to do with their own bodies.

We are talking, of course, about seat belt laws.

Saying that seat belts were unpopular when they first came around is an understatement. In 1949, Wisconsin-based Nash Motors became the first car company to offer them as an additional feature. Almost no one asked for them. In 1968, when seat belts became standard equipment, some drivers responded by cutting them out of their vehicles. In 1982, when Michigan State Rep. David Hollister introduced a state seat belt law, he received hate mail comparing him to Hitler.⁶ The reception to such laws in other states was similarly cool. In the 1980s, only 14% of all Americans used seat belts.⁷

Seat belt deniers largely cited three arguments:⁸

• Personal freedoms: Seat belts are a choice. Everyone should have the right to decide, for themselves, whether to use one;
• Personal choice: Seat belts are uncomfortable or cumbersome; and
• Fear of the technology: Seat belts would make it difficult to escape a damaged car. In a car crash, it would be safer to be thrown free of the wreckage, beltless.

https://www.the-rheumatologist.org/article/revisionist-history-seat-belts-resistance-to-public-health-measures/

 

Edited September 21, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

EV Cars Could Soon Cost the Same as Gas Guzzlers as Battery Prices Plummet

The price of lithium-ion battery cells, typically the costliest part of an EV, has declined more than 30% since March 2022.

Lithium-ion battery prices dropped 10% in August, which could help lower the cost of the electric vehicles they power enough to put them on par with gas-powered automobiles.

EVs have traditionally had higher upfront costs, with the price of the battery a chief factor. But the average price for batteries fell to  $98.20 per kilowatt-hour last month, according to energy analytics firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the first time in two years it has dipped below $100. 

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/ev-cars-could-soon-cost-the-same-as-gas-guzzlers-as-battery-prices-plummet/

 

 

Battery pack prices need to reach $100 per kilowatt-hour for EVs to achieve price parity with their fossil-fuel counterparts, Benchmark said.

[Rob Plant + 2,650]

2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

People welcome a lot of government regulation. 

We'll agree to disagree

AGAIN!

[TailingsPond + 498]

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

We'll agree to disagree

AGAIN!

California remains safely democratic.

I don't see the state flipping sides or repealing any regulations; and as I mentioned before, once California makes a regulation the rest of the country / world generally follows due to their massive market. 

The rest of the country can complain all they want, it won't change anything (2-stroke elimination, catalytic converters, seat belts etc.).  Sure California may be a nanny state but the rednecks have been bad and need a good spanking   Trump is going to get a long time out.