Jay McKinsey + 1,490 June 24, 2023 (edited) 17 minutes ago, Ecocharger said: Waste of public money.  If so then note that those are diehard conservative red staters that are wasting that public money. Edited June 24, 2023 by Jay McKinsey Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 June 24, 2023 24 minutes ago, Ecocharger said: European demand for diesel is still strong. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Diesel-Demand-Defies-Recession-Fears.html "Commodity traders are increasingly investing in middle distillate futures, fueled by a global shortage, even as they sell off crude oil futures. China's diesel exports quadrupled in May, reflecting robust global demand for distillate fuels despite weaker domestic demand, and this is encouraging a strong appetite among traders for fuel purchases. Despite an economic slowdown and concerns about a recession, distillate fuel stocks remain low, and demand remains high." "Reuters’ Kemp again noted that in a recent column, noting that distillate stocks in Europe were 32 million barrels higher at the end of May than the trough they’d reached a year ago but that they were still 32 million barrels below the 10-year seasonal average. In the United States, Kemp reported, distillate stocks were 5 million barrels higher now than a year ago, but they were 22 million barrels lower than the 10-year average for this time of the year. At the same time, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said that diesel fuel consumption in the United States, except the West Coast, had climbed above the 10-year maximum in March. The exception was attributed to greater biodiesel consumption on the West Coast rather than lower demand." But oil demand is weak and that is what matters. The shortage of diesel has to do with refining not oil production. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 June 24, 2023 (edited) 20 hours ago, Ecocharger said: Jay, you must have skipped International Trade, whenever a government distorts prices and trade flows, trade relations are disrupted and the optimal income production value is thrown off and reduced. That is just standard economics, which you apparently did not bother to learn. You seem to be stuck with the days of Smoot-Hawley in the age before a more rational trade policy was designed. The principal victims of trade barriers are poor Americans who are forced to pay distorted high prices for their basic necessities. That is just dumb old short-sighted self-inflicted economic pain. Your specialty. Trade does not always make economic sense. That is basic economics. Ricardo's widely acclaimed comparative advantage theory suggests that nations can gain an international trade advantage when they focus on producing goods that produce the lowest opportunity costs as compared to other nations. When the lowest opportunity cost is for domestic production of a good then trade to acquire it is uneconomical. Edited June 24, 2023 by Jay McKinsey Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL June 25, 2023 4 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said: But oil demand is weak and that is what matters. The shortage of diesel has to do with refining not oil production. You having trouble reading again? Investment is increasing, Chinese diesel exports quadrupled due to robust demand. "Commodity traders are increasingly investing in middle distillate futures, fueled by a global shortage, even as they sell off crude oil futures. China's diesel exports quadrupled in May, reflecting robust global demand for distillate fuels despite weaker domestic demand, and this is encouraging a strong appetite among traders for fuel purchases. Despite an economic slowdown and concerns about a recession, distillate fuel stocks remain low, and demand remains high." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL June 25, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said: Trade does not always make economic sense. That is basic economics. Ricardo's widely acclaimed comparative advantage theory suggests that nations can gain an international trade advantage when they focus on producing goods that produce the lowest opportunity costs as compared to other nations. When the lowest opportunity cost is for domestic production of a good then trade to acquire it is uneconomical. No, that is a misunderstanding of the theory. It is not about "competitive advantage" but about "comparative advantage", in that nations in a free trade system will allocate productive resources to those industries where they are most productive, until marginal costs of production increase and are equilibrated with international terms of trade. That means that there are gains from trade whenever relative productivity in production of goods differs between nations, even if one nation possesses an absolute advantage in the production of all commodities. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage Edited June 25, 2023 by Ecocharger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL June 25, 2023 4 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said: If so then note that those are diehard conservative red staters that are wasting that public money. Democrats are specialists in wasting public money. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM June 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ecocharger said: You having trouble reading again? Investment is increasing, Chinese diesel exports quadrupled due to robust demand. "Commodity traders are increasingly investing in middle distillate futures, fueled by a global shortage, even as they sell off crude oil futures. China's diesel exports quadrupled in May, reflecting robust global demand for distillate fuels despite weaker domestic demand, and this is encouraging a strong appetite among traders for fuel purchases. Despite an economic slowdown and concerns about a recession, distillate fuel stocks remain low, and demand remains high." China is importing Russian produced diesel and exporting Chinesse produced Diesel....it gets around the sanctions...... same is happening out of Saudi Arabia  investment is not increasing just a game of musical chairs.... many countries are now importing China produced refined goods as they were blocked from trading with Russia. No sanctions on buying refined Chinesse distilates  has nothing to do with demand within China or demand outside of China it is all about making money on the trade that gets around the sanctions  lots of many being made in the long haul crude oil trade and refined goods shipping biz right now on the game of musical chairs   https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/saudi-diesel-imports-russia-exports-singapore-hit-records-2023-05-29/ Saudi diesel imports from Russia, exports to Singapore hit records Leading crude exporter Saudi Arabia is maximising refining profits by importing unprecedented amounts of cheap Russian diesel and in turn... . 4 weeks ago  Russian Refineries Send Record Fuel-Oil Flows to China ... Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com › news › articles › russia...    May 16, 2023 — Russia now supplies some 35%-40% of all fuel oil imported by China, according to Viktor Katona, an analyst at Kpler. China's buying binge  Russian diesel exports hit record highs as the sanctioned ... Yahoo https://finance.yahoo.com › news › russian-diesel-exp...    Apr 22, 2023 — Russian diesel exports saw their highest-volume month on record in March, despite more restrictions on Moscow's energy supplies Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL June 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, notsonice said: China is importing Russian produced diesel and exporting Chinesse produced Diesel....it gets around the sanctions...... same is happening out of Saudi Arabia  investment is not increasing just a game of musical chairs.... many countries are now importing China produced refined goods as they were blocked from trading with Russia. No sanctions on buying refined Chinesse distilates  has nothing to do with demand within China or demand outside of China it is all about making money on the trade that gets around the sanctions  lots of many being made in the long haul crude oil trade and refined goods shipping biz right now on the game of musical chairs   https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/saudi-diesel-imports-russia-exports-singapore-hit-records-2023-05-29/ Saudi diesel imports from Russia, exports to Singapore hit records Leading crude exporter Saudi Arabia is maximising refining profits by importing unprecedented amounts of cheap Russian diesel and in turn... . 4 weeks ago  Russian Refineries Send Record Fuel-Oil Flows to China ... Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com › news › articles › russia...    May 16, 2023 — Russia now supplies some 35%-40% of all fuel oil imported by China, according to Viktor Katona, an analyst at Kpler. China's buying binge  Russian diesel exports hit record highs as the sanctioned ... Yahoo https://finance.yahoo.com › news › russian-diesel-exp...    Apr 22, 2023 — Russian diesel exports saw their highest-volume month on record in March, despite more restrictions on Moscow's energy supplies  Read, "China's diesel exports quadrupled in May, reflecting robust global demand for distillate fuels despite weaker domestic demand, and this is encouraging a strong appetite among traders for fuel purchases. Despite an economic slowdown and concerns about a recession, distillate fuel stocks remain low, and demand remains high." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM June 25, 2023 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Ecocharger said: Read, "China's diesel exports quadrupled in May, reflecting robust global demand for distillate fuels despite weaker domestic demand, and this is encouraging a strong appetite among traders for fuel purchases. Despite an economic slowdown and concerns about a recession, distillate fuel stocks remain low, and demand remains high." the robust global demand is the direct result of the redirection of Russian exports and the longer hauls and time tied up at docks Yes I can read ...Can you... the import export trade is booming (reflecting robust global demand )Â Â have you noticed that shipping rates are going through the roof on the game of musical chairs and the time that oil/distillates are tied up in the the trade....the booming import/export game of musical chair ties up millions of barrels Russia and everyone under the sun is floating anything that can hold oil these days....no scrapping of tankers this year S&P Global Tanker switching for Russian oil hits record high as sanctions kick in Seaborne tanker switching of Russian origin crude and products have rebounded to record highs since the latest round of Western curbs on... . Mar 8, 2023 Edited June 25, 2023 by notsonice Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL June 25, 2023 Just now, notsonice said: the robust global demand is the direct result of the redirection of Russian exports and the longer hauls and time tied up at docks Yes I can read ...Can you... the import export trade is booming (reflecting robust global demand )  have you noticed that shipping rates are going through the roof on the game of musical chairs and the time that oil/distillates are tied up in the the trade....the booming import/export game of musical chair ties up millions of barrels Russia and everyone under the sun is floating anything that can hold oil these days....no scrapping of tankers this year Oil is a world competitive market place with barrels traveling around, but the bottom line is that China's diesel exports quadrupled in May, reflecting robust global demand for distillate fuels despite weaker domestic demand, and this is encouraging a strong appetite among traders for fuel purchases. Despite an economic slowdown and concerns about a recession, distillate fuel stocks remain low, and demand remains high. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM June 25, 2023 where is the oil going to these days.....into the Russian Ghost fleet....no scraping of old outdated tankers this year  Bloomberg.com Russia's Ghost Fleet of Oil Tankers Is a Floating Time Bomb Moscow has turned to a flotilla of outdated, untrackable ships to duck sanctions, and they are a menace to the oceans. . Mar 29, 2023 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 June 25, 2023 39 minutes ago, Ecocharger said: weaker domestic demand May I direct your attention to "weaker domestic demand" and that is in the 2nd largest diesel market in the world. Â Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL June 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Jay McKinsey said: May I direct your attention to "weaker domestic demand" and that is in the 2nd largest diesel market in the world.  Read carefully, "robust global demand", oil products sell into international markets, there is one big world market which is now robust for diesel. China's diesel exports quadrupled in May, reflecting robust global demand for distillate fuels despite weaker domestic demand, and this is encouraging a strong appetite among traders for fuel purchases. Despite an economic slowdown and concerns about a recession, distillate fuel stocks remain low, and demand remains high. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 June 25, 2023 (edited) 55 minutes ago, Ecocharger said: No, that is a misunderstanding of the theory. It is not about "competitive advantage" but about "comparative advantage", in that nations in a free trade system will allocate productive resources to those industries where they are most productive, until marginal costs of production increase and are equilibrated with international terms of trade. That means that there are gains from trade whenever relative productivity in production of goods differs between nations, even if one nation possesses an absolute advantage in the production of all commodities. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage Dude I was stating Ricardian Comparitive advantage. From the wiki first sentence: In an economic model, agents have a comparative advantage over others in producing a particular good if they can produce that good at a lower relative opportunity cost or autarky price, i.e. at a lower relative marginal cost prior to trade The US now has the autarky price on many goods because of the cost of rising supply chain risk and a need for high employment to help the poor. Edited June 25, 2023 by Jay McKinsey Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 June 25, 2023 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Ecocharger said: Read carefully, "robust global demand", oil products sell into international markets, there is one big world market which is now robust for diesel. China's diesel exports quadrupled in May, reflecting robust global demand for distillate fuels despite weaker domestic demand, and this is encouraging a strong appetite among traders for fuel purchases. Despite an economic slowdown and concerns about a recession, distillate fuel stocks remain low, and demand remains high. Yes which means that you have to subtract China from the world total. Thus global demand is fair not robust. Edited June 25, 2023 by Jay McKinsey Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eyes Wide Open + 3,555 June 25, 2023 8 hours ago, notsonice said: you do know that any form of sustainable energy does not include oil found in the earth coal or nat gas found in the earth  Off who put the mayor&sheriff badge on you? Let me guess the man in the mirror. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eyes Wide Open + 3,555 June 25, 2023 46 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said: Yes which means that you have to subtract China from the world total. Thus global demand is fair not robust.  1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL June 25, 2023 (edited) 52 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said: Dude I was stating Ricardian Comparitive advantage. From the wiki first sentence: In an economic model, agents have a comparative advantage over others in producing a particular good if they can produce that good at a lower relative opportunity cost or autarky price, i.e. at a lower relative marginal cost prior to trade The US now has the autarky price on many goods because of the cost of rising supply chain risk and a need for high employment to help the poor. The theory is about when there are gains to trade, which will happen whenever domestic relative productivity differs from the international relative productivity. It has nothing to do with absolute cost advantages. That is just basic trade theory. Did you take an international trade course in economics, Jay? Edited June 25, 2023 by Ecocharger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL June 25, 2023 (edited) 53 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said: Yes which means that you have to subtract China from the world total. Thus global demand is fair not robust. No, you do not have to "subtract" anything, the world is one oil and diesel market and that market is now "robust". China has no trouble selling abroad its diesel output. China's diesel exports quadrupled in May, reflecting robust global demand for distillate fuels Edited June 25, 2023 by Ecocharger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 June 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ecocharger said: No, you do not have to "subtract" anything, the world is one oil and diesel market and that market is now "robust". China has no trouble selling abroad its diesel output. China's diesel exports quadrupled in May, reflecting robust global demand for distillate fuels Yes the world is one oil market and it includes China. When China, the 2nd largest market demand, drops you have to subtract that from the global total. The reason China quadrupled exports was because of weak domestic demand. Let's take a look at diesel price. Adjusting for inflation the price of diesel is about average for the past 20 years. And yes Heating Oil and Diesel are the same thing: Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL June 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said: Yes the world is one oil market and it includes China. When China, the 2nd largest market demand, drops you have to subtract that from the global total. The reason China quadrupled exports was because of weak domestic demand. Let's take a look at diesel price. Adjusting for inflation the price of diesel is about average for the past 20 years. And yes Heating Oil and Diesel are the same thing: The reason they were able to quadruple exports was because there was robust demand outside China, Jay. China's diesel exports quadrupled in May, reflecting robust global demand for distillate fuels  Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 June 25, 2023 (edited) 31 minutes ago, Ecocharger said: The theory is about when there are gains to trade, which will happen whenever domestic relative productivity differs from the international relative productivity. It has nothing to do with absolute cost advantages. That is just basic trade theory. Did you take an international trade course in economics, Jay? Yes and I got an A. I had a 4.0 GPA for my econ degree. It says it right there in the definition of comparative advantage. Let's try this again: From the wiki first sentence: In an economic model, agents have a comparative advantage over others in producing a particular good if they can produce that good at a lower relative opportunity cost or autarky price, i.e. at a lower relative marginal cost prior to trade The US now has the autarky price on many goods because of the cost of rising supply chain risk and a need for high employment to help the poor. i.e. The US can produce semiconductors and batteries at a lower relative opportunity cost because most of our semiconductors come from Taiwan which China is threatening to attack which would gravely disrupt our supply. And if we relied on Chinese batteries that supply would also be disrupted. Edited June 25, 2023 by Jay McKinsey Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 June 25, 2023 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Ecocharger said: The reason they were able to quadruple exports was because there was robust demand outside China, Jay. China's diesel exports quadrupled in May, reflecting robust global demand for distillate fuels  You keep forgetting the part of the article that says "weaker domestic demand," China is a very big part of global diesel demand. When they have weak demand it significantly decreases total global demand. You have to include China in global demand. Edited June 25, 2023 by Jay McKinsey Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL June 25, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said: Yes and I got an A. I had a 4.0 GPA for my econ degree. It says it right there in the definition of comparative advantage. Let's try this again: From the wiki first sentence: In an economic model, agents have a comparative advantage over others in producing a particular good if they can produce that good at a lower relative opportunity cost or autarky price, i.e. at a lower relative marginal cost prior to trade The US now has the autarky price on many goods because of the cost of rising supply chain risk and a need for high employment to help the poor. i.e. The US can produce semiconductors and batteries at a lower relative opportunity cost because most of our semiconductors come from Taiwan which China is threatening to attack which would gravely disrupt our supply. And if we relied on Chinese batteries that supply would also be disrupted. You keep missing the point....RELATIVE cost, not absolute cost. There are gains to trade whenever that happens, which is almost always. In the current times, attempting to grow bananas in Alaska rather than import them from Central America or to make mass produced lower end items in U.S. rather than China and then import them is to ignore the gains available from trade. Jay, I took the graduate courses in International Trade and International Finance, getting B+ in both. Edited June 25, 2023 by Ecocharger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL June 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Jay McKinsey said: You keep forgetting the part of the article that says "weaker domestic demand," China is a very big part of global diesel demand. When they have weak demand it significantly decreases total global demand. You have to include China in global demand. You keep forgetting that global demand for diesel is robust enough to absorb Chinese diesel exports. China's diesel exports quadrupled in May, reflecting robust global demand for distillate fuels Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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