E-car Sales Collapse

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

1 hour ago, TailingsPond said:

Rome wasn't built in a day.

You are right, the Roman Empire was constructed gradually over about four or five centuries.

I predict that even with four or five centuries the EV revolution will not happen.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

You are right, the Roman Empire was constructed gradually over about four or five centuries.

I predict that even with four or five centuries the EV revolution will not happen.

Except that at the actual current rate of growth it happens in about 30 years.

Electric car markets are seeing exponential growth as sales exceeded 10 million in 2022. A total of 14% of all new cars sold were electric in 2022, up from around 9% in 2021 and less than 5% in 2020. 

https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/executive-summary

[Boat + 1,324]

3 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

So 85 % of Mercedes Benz production is fossil fuel vehicles. That is a huge addition to the fossil fuel fleet going forward.

For Europe as a whole 87% of new car sales are fossil fuel.

Weren’t the Germans fined over 10 billion for hiding emissions? The can’t afford to go electric. They’re broke. 

[notsonice + 1,255]

3 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

You are right, the Roman Empire was constructed gradually over about four or five centuries.

I predict that even with four or five centuries the EV revolution will not happen.

you must be a real slow one.........Romans were a little slow also but persistant buggers, 

in todays world.....EV revolution is happening in real time.......and much faster than the ascent of the Roman Empire

4 to 5 percent of the ICE market being lost to EVs right now. EV revolution  is happening (enjoy it)

 

do you need help with the math as your four or five centuries is off by a factor of more than 10

 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

16 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

In other words, you drive a fossil fuel vehicle, just like every other rational human being.

I do yes

As I say with range compromised and waiting ages to recharge on long journeys EV's are'nt currently practical enough for me.

If I didnt do long journeys then I would definitely get one, the hybrid suits me just fine at the moment.

Edited July 12, 2023 by Rob Plant

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

16 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

We will see, but as of now the EVs are piling up on sales lots with no buyers.

I would rather suggest that there has been a massive drought in supply due to battery manufacture as well as semicinductor shortages. Now they have ramped up supply to cope with demand we will see EV/hybrid sales continue to soar and take market share.

If you think otherwise then its just a matter of time until youre proven wrong.

Many countries and especially most auto manufacturers are STOPPING manufacture of ICE vehicles as early as 2030 so that alone should tell you that post this date the percentage of ICE vehicles on the road will plummet. They will become a novelty in 30 years.

Edited July 12, 2023 by Rob Plant

[Boat + 1,324]

I think it was 2016 there were 1 million EV’s in the world. Now roughly over 3 million per year. Seems to me that’s called growth. We’ll really be able to gauge interest when and If the EV can get under $20,000. The masses will speak with their pocket book. 

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

On 7/11/2023 at 11:26 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

Except that at the actual current rate of growth it happens in about 30 years.

Electric car markets are seeing exponential growth as sales exceeded 10 million in 2022. A total of 14% of all new cars sold were electric in 2022, up from around 9% in 2021 and less than 5% in 2020. 

https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/executive-summary

EVs have run into a brick wall of market saturation, it is really just a niche market and now the EVs are piling up on sales lots.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

17 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

I would rather suggest that there has been a massive drought in supply due to battery manufacture as well as semicinductor shortages. Now they have ramped up supply to cope with demand we will see EV/hybrid sales continue to soar and take market share.

If you think otherwise then its just a matter of time until youre proven wrong.

Many countries and especially most auto manufacturers are STOPPING manufacture of ICE vehicles as early as 2030 so that alone should tell you that post this date the percentage of ICE vehicles on the road will plummet. They will become a novelty in 30 years.

Inventories are piling up according to Cox.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

4 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Inventories are piling up according to Cox.

Which is apparently great for sales. 

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

29 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Which is apparently great for sales. 

Which indicates unsold inventory, a lack of sales.

 "In June, based on data from the vAuto Available Inventory Database, Cox Automotive is estimating that days of supply for EVs is at 92 days, up from 36 days a year ago and well above the industry-wide average of 51."

Edited July 13, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

1 minute ago, Ecocharger said:

Which indicates unsold inventory, a lack of sales.

Sales are an objective criteria and changes are based on a year over year value. Your opinion is irrelevant. 

A total of 113,911 plug-in vehicles (91,699 BEVs and 22,212 PHEVs) were sold during May 2023 in the United States, up 68.1% from the sales in May 2022.

https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

3 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Sales are an objective criteria and changes are based on a year over year value. Your opinion is irrelevant. 

A total of 113,911 plug-in vehicles (91,699 BEVs and 22,212 PHEVs) were sold during May 2023 in the United States, up 68.1% from the sales in May 2022.

https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates

Unsold inventory in EVs is well above unsold inventory in fossil fuel vehicles.

This indicates a saturated market for EVs.

 "In June, based on data from the vAuto Available Inventory Database, Cox Automotive is estimating that days of supply for EVs is at 92 days, up from 36 days a year ago and well above the industry-wide average of 51."

Edited July 13, 2023 by Ecocharger

[specinho + 470]

On 7/12/2023 at 2:52 AM, notsonice said:

that is a million  EVs in the US per year ....15 million globally evs sales in 2023

 

from Cox......Cox Automotive is forecasting U.S. EV sales to surpass 1 million units for the first time in 2023

do you live under a rock?????? can you read US????

Average sale of ice per month in the USA alone surpassing 15 millions?????? per month????

dude , what are you smoking???

if you are going to post at least take a few minutes and find out facts ....not your BS fake facts

15 million new ice vehicles sold every month in the US?????..... you obviously have no clue what you are babbling about

Quote from your post:" ...... up from 355,000 a year earlier."

> 15 millions in value per month. If a car costed an average of $30k, then it is 500, 000 cars per month; 6 million cars per year.

If an average purchase price is at $45k, then it is 333, 333 cars per month; 4 million cars per year.

Compared to 355,000 EV per year, got it?

Please be reminded there is a backdate of at least two to three years to get EV ordered....

If the capacity of a factory is 5000 cars per month = 60, 000 cars per year.

If 5000 cars per week, it will be 20,000 cars per month; 240, 000 cars per year.

How could your sale be possibly higher than what a factory can produce? 

Edited July 13, 2023 by specinho

[specinho + 470]

On 7/11/2023 at 5:27 PM, Rob Plant said:

Yes the reeason for this was very high energy costs ie NG went sky high due to the war in Ukraine NOTHING to do with renewables at all, but actually all to do with Germany's dependence on Russian NG

There is a highlight in newsletter that mentioned " Germany has signed a 20 year deal with USA for the supply of gas... "

We can probably deduce that ideology difference is the major cause of Germany boycotting oil and gas from Russia. One promotes voting system, the other appointment or selection. Unless Russia compromised to vote, they will not buy from them, right? 'o' 

Those jokers of do not know what breed..... 'n'

Not so much of war.

Norway has newfound gas reserve... And other european countries also have some. 

Why would you think they do not want to use pipelines that provide access in a turn of tap, but wait to stock up by ships? 

Edited July 13, 2023 by specinho

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

44 minutes ago, specinho said:

There is a highlight in newsletter that mentioned " Germany has signed a 20 year deal with USA for the supply of gas... "

We can probably deduce that ideology difference is the major cause of Germany boycotting oil and gas from Russia. One promotes voting system, the other appointment or selection. Unless Russia compromised to vote, they will not buy from them, right? 'o' 

Those jokers of do not know what breed..... 'n'

Not so much of war.

Norway has newfound gas reserve... And other european countries also have some. 

Why would you think they do not want to use pipelines that provide access in a turn of tap, but wait to stock up by ships? 

I never mentioned anything about Germany relying on LNG did I or that they prefer LNG over piped gas???? Please quote me where I did, but you cant because I didnt. Only an idiot would prefer that as its far more expensive, however to avoid a catastrophic collapse in NG to households and businesses they had to import LNG in the short term until they got agreements with other NG suppliers like Norway.

Germany pretty much single sourced their gas from Russia (Nordstream1) so were massively in the brown stuff when they were no longer able to use Russian gas so had to switch to whatever gas they could get their hands on, which included some from Norway and also LNG. Germany now imports 30% of NG from Norway but please understand Norway cant just ramp up production overnight so Germany had to invest in new LNG terminals and import that in the short term. They are now building Hydrogen plants also.https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-invest-around-10-bln-hydrogen-projects-2021-05-28/

Yes Norway has just made another NG discovery which is great news for Europe, but it will take many years for that to end up at someone's home or business. Johan Sverdrup and Johan Castberg took many years to build as do all major subsea offshore projects.

[specinho + 470]

13 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

I never mentioned anything about Germany relying on LNG did I or that they prefer LNG over piped gas???? Please quote me where I did, but you cant because I didnt. Only an idiot would prefer that as its far more expensive, however to avoid a catastrophic collapse in NG to households and businesses they had to import LNG in the short term until they got agreements with other NG suppliers like Norway.

Germany pretty much single sourced their gas from Russia (Nordstream1) so were massively in the brown stuff when they were no longer able to use Russian gas so had to switch to whatever gas they could get their hands on, which included some from Norway and also LNG. Germany now imports 30% of NG from Norway but please understand Norway cant just ramp up production overnight so Germany had to invest in new LNG terminals and import that in the short term. They are now building Hydrogen plants also.https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-invest-around-10-bln-hydrogen-projects-2021-05-28/

Yes Norway has just made another NG discovery which is great news for Europe, but it will take many years for that to end up at someone's home or business. Johan Sverdrup and Johan Castberg took many years to build as do all major subsea offshore projects.

You might have misunderstood the lead.

Based on this Quote:" Germany's dependence on Russian NG..."

The reply was there has been a switch of supplier from Russia to USA.

Why would they prefer to wait for shipment instead of turn on the ready built pipes? The hypothesis is, one is democratic voting country; another is by appointment or selection with mild voting at top level, when necessary, like EU. Unless Russia compromised to vote, they are boycotting russian gas, or some sort. 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

10 minutes ago, specinho said:

You might have misunderstood the lead.

Based on this Quote:" Germany's dependence on Russian NG..."

The reply was there has been a switch of supplier from Russia to USA.

Why would they prefer to wait for shipment instead of turn on the ready built pipes? The hypothesis is, one is democratic voting country; another is by appointment or selection with mild voting at top level, when necessary, like EU. Unless Russia compromised to vote, they are boycotting russian gas, or some sort. 

Your hypothesis doesnt factor in the fact there are Europe wide sanctions in place for most goods and services from Russia, including natural gas, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. What has this got to do with voting and democracy? Its about agreeing to and then obeying agreed sanctions againt Russia. I'm sure economically its hurting Germany and Italy to be doing this but thats what theyve signed up to.

 

[notsonice + 1,255]

4 hours ago, specinho said:

Quote from your post:" ...... up from 355,000 a year earlier."

> 15 millions in value per month. If a car costed an average of $30k, then it is 500, 000 cars per month; 6 million cars per year.

If an average purchase price is at $45k, then it is 333, 333 cars per month; 4 million cars per year.

Compared to 355,000 EV per year, got it?

Please be reminded there is a backdate of at least two to three years to get EV ordered....

If the capacity of a factory is 5000 cars per month = 60, 000 cars per year.

If 5000 cars per week, it will be 20,000 cars per month; 240, 000 cars per year.

How could your sale be possibly higher than what a factory can produce? 

15 millions in value per month. If a car costed an average of $30k, then it is 500, 000 cars per month????

WTF are you babbling about.........

15 millions in value per month????were the hell does this come from??? pulling out of your arse???

This year it is estimated that globally 15 million EVs including hybrids will be sold...Got it

15 million EVs sold has nothing to do with what you are babbling about

Edited July 13, 2023 by notsonice

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

10 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Sales are an objective criteria and changes are based on a year over year value. Your opinion is irrelevant. 

A total of 113,911 plug-in vehicles (91,699 BEVs and 22,212 PHEVs) were sold during May 2023 in the United States, up 68.1% from the sales in May 2022.

https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates

The inventory problem for EVs is getting worse as we speak. The market for EVs has run its course, the market is saturated as potential buyers have already bought an EV.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ford-electric-vehicle-inventory-problem-trying-to-beat-tesla-2023-7?fbclid=IwAR27RD7w5ucvrI8b-CPzQZSQJp02gKpOZzkGxZHDJNs2Dq2PyQXe2EfDjrk

"Ford dealers sold 86.4% of their Mach-E inventory within 30 days in the second quarter of 2022, but that figure — known as a turn rate — dropped to 27.7% in the same period of 2023 even as the automaker had more than twice as much inventory on the market, according to data from the analytics firm Cloud Theory.

Ford's second-quarter sales of the Mach-E fell 21% from last year (10,941 vehicles) to the same period this year (8,633)."

 

Edited July 13, 2023 by Ecocharger

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

The inventory problem for EVs is getting worse as we speak. The market for EVs has run its course, the market is saturated as potential buyers have already bought an EV.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ford-electric-vehicle-inventory-problem-trying-to-beat-tesla-2023-7?fbclid=IwAR27RD7w5ucvrI8b-CPzQZSQJp02gKpOZzkGxZHDJNs2Dq2PyQXe2EfDjrk

"Ford dealers sold 86.4% of their Mach-E inventory within 30 days in the second quarter of 2022, but that figure — known as a turn rate — dropped to 27.7% in the same period of 2023 even as the automaker had more than twice as much inventory on the market, according to data from the analytics firm Cloud Theory.

Ford's second-quarter sales of the Mach-E fell 21% from last year (10,941 vehicles) to the same period this year (8,633)."

 

Lots of companies are fighting for the EV market share.  Tesla lowered their prices to squeeze the competition.  "Trying to beat Tesla" is hard. 

Also from your link:

"Ford is bullish about EVs. It's ramping up production and investing billions of dollars."

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

6 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

Lots of companies are fighting for the EV market share.  Tesla lowered their prices to squeeze the competition.  "Trying to beat Tesla" is hard. 

Also from your link:

"Ford is bullish about EVs. It's ramping up production and investing billions of dollars."

The market for EVs is now saturated and they cannot sell any more...end of your party.

"Ford dealers sold 86.4% of their Mach-E inventory within 30 days in the second quarter of 2022, but that figure — known as a turn rate — dropped to 27.7% in the same period of 2023 even as the automaker had more than twice as much inventory on the market, according to data from the analytics firm Cloud Theory.

Ford's second-quarter sales of the Mach-E fell 21% from last year (10,941 vehicles) to the same period this year (8,633)."

Edited July 13, 2023 by Ecocharger

[turbguy + 1,544]

19 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Which indicates unsold inventory, a lack of sales.

 

As a very wise car salesman once said...

"There's an ass for every seat".

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

3 hours ago, turbguy said:

As a very wise car salesman once said...

"There's an ass for every seat".

If someone already has an EV, why would they want two? The EV is a backup vehicle for the rich, not a practical option.

The market is overfilled and the potential buyers are all satisfied with their current EV.

[turbguy + 1,544]

53 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

If someone already has an EV, why would they want two? The EV is a backup vehicle for the rich, not a practical option.

The market is overfilled and the potential buyers are all satisfied with their current EV.

As a very wise car salesman once said...

"There's an ass for every seat".

In other words, eventually, all cars sell to someone.