E-car Sales Collapse

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

On 8/30/2023 at 1:30 AM, QuarterCenturyVet said:

We went over this already. The definition of a veteran can be a 25 year veteran of the oil and gas industry. My father is a military vet. He actually served this country and put his life on the line. 

You however, are just a parasite, like so many other government employees that do nothing of value. 

Any Armed Forces Member > government chemist/government leach. 

Members of the military are government employees.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

On 8/30/2023 at 11:48 AM, Ecocharger said:

About 97% of new vehicle sales are fossil fuel.....getting from here to zero will not happen. Only a few dimwit states are even considering joining California.

https://money.com/states-banning-gas-powered-cars/#:~:text=At least nine states now,with the 2035 model year.

Wrong.  As I told you last week EVs in California are over 20% of new vehicle sales. 

Actually 20% of the states have joined California and another 13% are considering it. These states represent over half the US population and by far the largest most valuable car markets. The rest won't have a choice because manufacturers will build for the largest market.

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

3 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Actually it is law in California, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Washington, not a proposal.

The average age of a used vehicle in the US is 12 years. They don't last forever. 

Furthermore 8 of those states have adopted the Advanced Clean Trucks Act for medium and heavy duty trucks as law and 6 more are working on making it law:

In July of 2020, 15 states plus the District of Columbia agreed to form the largest-ever national partnership to address pollution from medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. Through a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), states committed to achieve 100% sales of electric trucks by 2050, with an interim target of 30% zero-emission vehicle sales by 2030.

Some state governments have already started working on formalizing these commitments through legislative and administrative action, including by proposal or adopting a version of the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) rule. Learn more about where states currently stand in their clean truck policies, and find groups working within each state to deliver #ElectricTrucksNow.

STATES THAT HAVE SIGNED THE 100% ZERO-EMISSION TRUCK MOU AND FULLY ADOPTED THE ADVANCED CLEAN TRUCKS RULE:

CALIFORNIA

In June 2020, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) unanimously adopted the world’s first zero-emission commercial truck requirement, the Advanced Clean Trucks rule.

Resources:

• Fact Sheet: Accelerating Zero-Emission Truck Markets, by CARB

• State Campaign Site: California Electric Trucks Now

 

OREGON

In November 2021, the State of Oregon Department of Environmental Quality formally adopted the Advanced Clean Truck (ACT) rule and the Heavy-Duty Omnibus (HDO) rule.

Resources:

• State campaign page: Clean Air Healthy Communities

• Report: Oregon Clean Trucks Program: An Analysis of the Impacts of Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks on the Environment, Public Health, Industry, and the Economy, by MJ Bradley and Associates

WASHINGTON

In March, 2020, Gov. Jay Inslee signed the Motor Vehicle Emission Standards – Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) bill, which, directed the Department of Ecology to adopt California vehicle emission standards, including Zero-emission standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (the Advanced Clean Trucks rule).

In November 2021, the Department formally adopted the ZEV program, including the ACT rule.

Resources:

• Report: Washington Clean Trucks Program: An Analysis of the Impacts of Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks on the Environment, Public Health, Industry, and the Economy, by MJ Bradley and Associates

NEW JERSEY

In April 2021, the NJ Department of Environmental Protection proposed an Advanced Clean Trucks program along with a Fleet Reporting Requirement. In December 2021, the DEP formally adopted the ACT.

Resources:

• Coalition for Healthy Ports press release on ACT adoption

MASSACHUSETTS

On December 30, 2021, the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MassDEP) announced that emergency regulations have been filed with the Secretary of the Commonwealth’s office to immediately adopt California’s Advanced Clean Trucks regulation. The filing of the emergency regulations commences the start of a public comment period and the coordination of a public hearing in February 2022.

NEW YORK

In September 2021, the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation announced plans to revise the existing low emission vehicle (LEV) program to incorporate California’s Advanced Clean Truck (ACT) medium- and heavy-duty zero emission vehicle (ZEV) standards. On December 30, 2021, the DEC officially adopted the ACT.

Resources:

• Report: New York Clean Trucks Program: An Analysis of the Impacts of Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks on the Environment, Public Health, Industry, and the Economy, by MJ Bradley and Associates

VERMONT

In November 2022, the Legislative Committee on Administrative Rules for Vermont officially approved adoption of both the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) rule and California’s Advanced Clean Cars 2 (ACC2) rules.

That's fine, business and industry will relocate elsewhere....let the liberal knot-heads stew in their own juice. Don't see Kentucky or Illinois or Michigan or Ohio on that dubious list, just the loser states who have little industry to lose.

Edited September 6, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Wrong.  As I told you last week EVs in California are over 20% of new vehicle sales. 

Actually 20% of the states have joined California and another 13% are considering it. These states represent over half the US population and by far the largest most valuable car markets. The rest won't have a choice because manufacturers will build for the largest market.

It will never happen, the EVs are piling up on sales lots for lack of customers. Brick wall time.

The market for EVs is a limited niche market and will remain so.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

24 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

That's fine, business and industry will relocate elsewhere....let the liberal knot-heads stew in their own juice. Don't see Kentucky or Illinois or Michigan or Ohio on that dubious list, just the loser states who have little industry to lose.

California has the fifth largest GDP in the world. Two of our largest companies, Tesla and Disney started to move out to Texas and Florida respectively and they have now moved back. You are right that the irrelevant fly over economies are not on the list. They will get what they are given.

[TailingsPond + 501]

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

That's fine, business and industry will relocate elsewhere....let the liberal knot-heads stew in their own juice. Don't see Kentucky or Illinois or Michigan or Ohio on that dubious list, just the loser states who have little industry to lose.

The states that have already passed the laws produce over 36% of the USA GDP.  I pity the fool that ignores that market fraction.  The list of green states will only grow longer.

"California, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Washington."

14.69 + 1.30 + 1.92 + 0.29 + 2.79 + 2.94 + 8.11 + 1.17 + 2.92 = 36.13% of National GDP

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_GDP

Just for your information:

Kentucky, Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio

1.03 + 4.11 + 2.49 + 3.22 = 10.5% of National GDP

36.1>10.5

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

California has the fifth largest GDP in the world. Two of our largest companies, Tesla and Disney started to move out to Texas and Florida respectively and they have now moved back. You are right that the irrelevant fly over economies are not on the list. They will get what they are given.

California has been borrowing trouble. Try getting business insurance with the new legislation making it illegal to interfere with thefts in progress.

I do not see California as a suitable model for policy on anything.

That strange list you gave us excludes the major industrial states of Michigan, Ohio, Illinois (doesn't Chicago locate there?), Texas,  Indiana, Florida, Louisiana, but if New York and Pennsylvania desire to deindustrialize, that is stheir choice. The industrial states will gladly receive their industries and populations.

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

17 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

The states that have already passed the laws produce over 36% of the USA GDP.  I pity the fool that ignores that market fraction.  The list of green states will only grow longer.

"California, Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon and Washington."

14.69 + 1.30 + 1.92 + 0.29 + 2.79 + 2.94 + 8.11 + 1.17 + 2.92 = 36.13% of National GDP

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_GDP

Just for your information:

Kentucky, Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio

1.03 + 4.11 + 2.49 + 3.22 = 10.5% of National GDP

36.1>10.5

Thank you for the list of states choosing to de-industrialize....and lose their populations....I pity them.

I guess they believe that tooth fairy science is more important than providing a reasonable standard of  living. They can perhaps turn to the federal government for desperation handouts.

Edited September 7, 2023 by Ecocharger

[TailingsPond + 501]

18 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Thank you for the list of states choosing to deindustrialize....and lose their populations....I pity them.

I guess they believe that tooth fairy science is more important than providing a reasonable standard of  living. They can perhaps turn to the federal government for desperation handouts.

They contribute more to the federal government than the other states.  If anything they are providing welfare / transfer payments to the less wealthy states.

Look up what states got the most government handouts under the last administration.  Which way did they lean politically?

Hint - trumps failed trade war hurt the conservative flyover states you love, so he bought some votes.

Edited September 7, 2023 by TailingsPond

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

 

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

California has been borrowing trouble. Try getting business insurance with the new legislation making it illegal to interfere with thefts in progress.

I do not see California as a suitable model for policy on anything.

That strange list you gave us excludes the major industrial states of Michigan, Ohio, Illinois (doesn't Chicago locate there?), Texas,  Indiana, Florida, Louisiana, but if New York and Pennsylvania desire to deindustrialize, that is stheir choice. The industrial states will gladly receive their industries and populations.

Your reading comprehension skills continue to be abhorrent. The list was the states that have *enacted laws* to abolish the sale of ICE cars.

Edited September 7, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[Ron Wagner + 649]

On 9/4/2023 at 11:58 PM, turbguy said:

The percentage of ICE vehicles on the road in Europe vs EVs is about 87% ICE vehicles and 13% EVs as of 2023, and EV;s will slowly increase.

The source of this information is the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA). The ACEA is an association of car manufacturers in Europe. They release annual reports on the state of the European car market.

The ACEA's 2023 report shows that there were 253.1 million passenger cars registered in Europe at the end of 2022. Of these, 216.9 million were ICE vehicles and 36.2 million were EVs.

I see Tesla's every day in Wyoming.

And how much more do European's pay for "petrol"??

You are not considering the gas guzzling trucks and other large vehicles. 

[Rob Plant + 2,652]

6 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

You are not considering the gas guzzling trucks and other large vehicles. 

True, but these are impressive sales growth figures YTD for passenger EV's in Europe that's undeniable!

Electric cars

In July, new EU battery-electric car registrations substantially increased by 60.6%, reaching 115,971 units while accounting for 13.6% of the market. Most EU markets grew significantly by double- and triple-digit percentage gains, including the two largest, Germany (+68.9%) and France (+32.4%). Notably, Belgium recorded the highest sales with an impressive 235.9% growth. Cumulatively, battery-electric car sales recorded a significant 54.7% increase from January to July, with 819,725 units registered.

New car registrations: +15.2% in July, battery electric 13.6% market share - ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers' Association

Commercial vehicles are starting to make an impact ie buses and small vans but not to the same scale as they are pretty new on the market. Trucks are pretty much non-existent as the technology again is brand new and hasn't reached mass production for these to be implemented yet and that's if they are commercially viable and economic which is yet to be proven IMO.

New commercial vehicle registrations: vans +11.2%, trucks +20%, buses +15% in the first half of 2023 - ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers' Association

However the EU are working on green trucking extensively, see below

Greening Freight Transport package: what does it mean for EU auto makers? - ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers' Association

Edited September 7, 2023 by Rob Plant

[Rob Plant + 2,652]

 

NEW CARS IN THE EU BY FUEL

Fuel types of new passenger cars in the EU - ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers' Association

If you cant spot the trend from the graph then there's no hope for you!

[Rob Plant + 2,652]

6 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

You are not considering the gas guzzling trucks and other large vehicles. 

New buses in the EU by fuel type - ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers' Association

New trucks in the EU by fuel type - ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers' Association

New vans in the EU by fuel type - ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers' Association

Some way to go with these, but I expect buses and especially vans to start impacting the EV mix in their respective areas in the very near future.

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

15 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

They contribute more to the federal government than the other states.  If anything they are providing welfare / transfer payments to the less wealthy states.

Look up what states got the most government handouts under the last administration.  Which way did they lean politically?

Hint - trumps failed trade war hurt the conservative flyover states you love, so he bought some votes.

The de-industrialization of these "Green" states will cause them to join the pauper's lineup for government relief.

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

14 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

 

Your reading comprehension skills continue to be abhorrent. The list was the states that have *enacted laws* to abolish the sale of ICE cars.

Exactly, with the certain results as I detailed, but the other states will gladly accept their industries and populations.

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

5 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

New buses in the EU by fuel type - ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers' Association

New trucks in the EU by fuel type - ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers' Association

New vans in the EU by fuel type - ACEA - European Automobile Manufacturers' Association

Some way to go with these, but I expect buses and especially vans to start impacting the EV mix in their respective areas in the very near future.

EVs are still a miniscule percentage of European vehicles.

If they hope to ban fossil fuel vehicles, the average person will have to leap onto the few EVs still on the road. As of now, EVs are transported to market largely by fossil fuel vehicles. That will stop soon and EVs will no longer be transported to market?

https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/05/08/norway-germany-uk-which-european-countries-have-the-biggest-share-of-electric-cars

"In 2022, the number of these fully electric passenger cars in EU countries increased by 58 per cent compared to 2021 - from 1.9 million to 3.1 million. Between 2019 and 2022 they soared by more than 400 per cent.

More significantly, the share of EVs among the total number of cars rose to 76 per 10,000 in the EU in 2021, up from only 2 per 10,000 in 2013."

So that means about 124 EVs per 10,000 today. Or about 1.24% of European vehicles is EV.

This is still just a niche market, and with growing inventories, production increases of EVs will be difficult to justify.

Edited September 7, 2023 by Ecocharger

[TailingsPond + 501]

3 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

As of now, EVs are transported to market largely by fossil fuel vehicles. That will stop soon and EVs will no longer be transported to market?

 

If you honestly think that is a real limitation to EV deployment you are truly deluding yourself.  Grasping at straws.

For one they already have trains and E trucks; and two they could even transport themselves in a pinch.  No, the odometer does not have to read zero to be considered new (think test drives).  Dealers could throw in a tiny discount, or some free floor mats.

Edited September 7, 2023 by TailingsPond

[TailingsPond + 501]

4 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Exactly, with the certain results as I detailed, but the other states will gladly accept their industries and populations.

’The whole problem with the world is that
fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves,
and wiser people so full of doubts.’ 

-Bertrand Russell

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

1 hour ago, TailingsPond said:

If you honestly think that is a real limitation to EV deployment you are truly deluding yourself.  Grasping at straws.

For one they already have trains and E trucks; and two they could even transport themselves in a pinch.  No, the odometer does not have to read zero to be considered new (think test drives).  Dealers could throw in a tiny discount, or some free floor mats.

Could? But don't? The availability of heavy duty EV vehicles is non-existent.

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

1 hour ago, TailingsPond said:

’The whole problem with the world is that
fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves,
and wiser people so full of doubts.’ 

-Bertrand Russell

Poor Russell, he got involved with the wrong fools.

[TailingsPond + 501]

5 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Could? But don't? The availability of heavy duty EV vehicles is non-existent.

A quick Google search shows you are wrong.  Tesla also has designed a E semi, and of course the medium-duty cybertruck.

https://electrek.co/2023/06/29/volvos-heavy-electric-truck-runs-12hrs-a-day-one-charge-break/

https://www.tesla.com/en_ca/semi

[notsonice + 1,098]

11 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Could? But don't? The availability of heavy duty EV vehicles is non-existent.

huh  guess you are wrong again

 

[Ecocharger + 1,384]

1 hour ago, TailingsPond said:

A quick Google search shows you are wrong.  Tesla also has designed a E semi, and of course the medium-duty cybertruck.

https://electrek.co/2023/06/29/volvos-heavy-electric-truck-runs-12hrs-a-day-one-charge-break/

https://www.tesla.com/en_ca/semi

So this is how many trucks?

"Since introducing its first in 2019, Volvo has sold nearly 5,000 electric trucks in 40 countries."

But none in America? Where could I go to buy one?

The Tesla truck? How many sold so far? None in operation?

Distinctly unimpressive. Almost nothing.

[TailingsPond + 501]

33 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

So this is how many trucks?

"Since introducing its first in 2019, Volvo has sold nearly 5,000 electric trucks in 40 countries."

But none in America? Where could I go to buy one?

The Tesla truck? How many sold so far? None in operation?

Distinctly unimpressive. Almost nothing.

Demonstrated proof of concept that EV's will be able to deliver other EV's.

Therefore, your ridiculous theory of "soon [] EVs will no longer be transported to market?" has been disproved.

Edited September 8, 2023 by TailingsPond