E-car Sales Collapse

[lexington green + 22]

On 1/6/2024 at 2:59 PM, Eyes Wide Open said:

Why I'd be more than happy to. It would seem the brain trust at Ford has stumbled up basic 8th grade math. Pricing up production down...on the world's best selling auto..The f150.

Ford is raising the price of its F-150 Lightning electric pickup by $5,000

https://fortune.com/2024/01/04/ford-f-150-lightning-price-increase-5000/

 

 Most expensive F-160 Lightening (Lariat):   $79,495   Least:  Pro Electric  $54,995

 Chevy Silverado ICE Trail Boss:   $ 68,355
 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

9 minutes ago, lexington green said:

Electricity still has a bigger footprint than gas and diesel distribution locations.  Building a new charging station is a 

lot simpler than installing a tank and pumping facility.

Odd I see no fuel infrastructure shortages in the EU...

[TailingsPond + 1,007]

More penalties for ICE companies caught trying to cheat on emissions tests. 

Just a 2 billion $ setback.

Engine maker Cummins to repair 600,000 Ram trucks in $2 billion emissions cheating scandal (msn.com)

If these vehicle were as clean as the oil cult here claims, why would they have to cheat? 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

1 hour ago, lexington green said:

 

 Most expensive F-160 Lightening (Lariat):   $79,495   Least:  Pro Electric  $54,995

 Chevy Silverado ICE Trail Boss:   $ 68,355
 

Ya Don't Say...CANCELD...Jan 11 2014 that's some demand LMAO.

 

 

Edited January 11 by Eyes Wide Open

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

10 hours ago, lexington green said:

Then post the calculations here, everyone.  (And don't leave out the math part.)

Ah, gotta hold your baby hands eh?  Is using google too hard for you?  I have done numbers, but lets use NREL's numbers from this link:

Lets do a simple calc just for solar panels, the only tech currently that is viable if you asked me(not wind unless you like bird deserts and headaches with monstrous seasonal variance year to year making it VERY difficult to predict and kills all the birds in area and windy areas usually have LARGE migratory routes which would kill off all the birds if installed)

https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy04osti/35098.pdf

Their solar uses single sided glass panels which are NOT hail proof. 

From link 20GW system capacity ~ = 15% CF at best = ~2.5GW at best continuous in summer.  Winter CF is ~7% or 1.5GW assuming this is in New Mexico(no hail storms like in Texas, hurricanes in Florida or eastern USA which destroy all the panels every ~10 years or so and gargantuan HVDC lines to Eastern USA.    Average 20GW nameplate capacity in reality gives ~2GW actual and assumes you have massive power storage.  Far worse the farther north you install this capacity. 

An example: I have a home in Denver and in less than 20 years we have had to completely replace the roof(for insurance reasons) 3 times due to HOA etc.  I finally got fed up and LIED to HOA and put in a REAL roof this time with VERY thick shingles(50 years guaranteed and they think it will last 100yrs and so far has gone through 1 more major hail event and my roof is fine, neighbors is not and their solar was smashed as well) which can take the severe hail damage.  ALL the solar panels in the area were smashed, ALL 3 times.   All smashed.  Last I checked ZERO solar panels can take hail damage(Tesla claims theirs can but their efficiency is pitiful and completely uneconomical)

---> Ergo I am not even going to argue that Solar will have to DOUBLE amount of glass etc required to make VIABLE long term panels even though many other analysts do DEMAND this to be true.  Personally I do, and why I refuse to put them on my rental home in Colorado even though on paper it makes PERFECT sense to put solar on my rental home in Denver... but due to hail it is utterly a farking joke.  To be hail tolerant the panels would be half their current size with MUCH thicker MUCH more expensive tempered glass etc and since the most expensive part of solar panels IS the glass and labor to install... this would most likely double cost of Solar. 

Ok, back to numbers.  USA Eastern Grid alone requires 600GW.  IF you electrify everything this will easily triple current electric requirements.  Most say, a multiple of 5 is closer to reality, but I think there will be offsetting advances not being discussed when those who use the 5X multiple.  Electrical grid conservatively for variance in seasonal usage and population growth needs to therefore be 2000GW. 

2000GW/2GW per article gives 1000 years these panels have to last for percentages stated out of world wide production capacity in those areas of concrete glass etc... Just for the Good ol' USA eastern Electrical Grid...

How long do panels actually last? 

Panels expected age ... Uh... if Hail country ~10 years.  Lets assume we are placing ALL these solar panels in New Mexico or Arizona.  It is hot so efficiency will take a ~15% hit, but lets ignore that as well.  Current panels have guarantees of 80% capacity at 20yrs... Good Luck.🤑  I have old panels with same "guarantee" and they reach ~50%-->75%, most at the 50%-->60% depending on panel and are only ~10 yrs old, might be as old as 12(Not sure).  I see this will NOT change until Solar panels go to DOUBLE SIDED glass keeping oxygen out.  --> Once again double weight, and increase cost by ~30% on the panel(true if you buy them today) and ~total is probably 40% more expensive once installed...

Lets assume we do go with double sided glass to actually REACH the stated age. 

Ok back to tonnages for best case:

Need installed 1000X the article just for eastern Grid USA. 

1. Article: 6.3% times 1000 times 2
2. Plastic 0.2% times 1000
3. Concrete 0.1% times 1000 Skewed by Chinas empty building crazed stupidity so this is probably closer to 0.2%
4. Steel 0.2% times 1000 Skewed heavily by China's empty building crazed stupidity so probably 0.4%
5. Aluminum 2% times 1000
6. Copper 0.3% times 1000

Article says out of Current WORLD wide yearly production  So USA Eastern Grid: Just for the solar panels, not including batteries or HVDC power cables/distribution etc REQUIRES to initially INSTALL, not upkeep

1. 120.6X times the worlds YEARLY production of glass(recycleable ~65%, though at this volume is probably 80%)
2. 2X times the worlds TOTAL plastic(technically recycleable, lets assume it is at this volume ~50%)
3. 1X times the worlds total concrete(not recycleable, but can use same foundation)
4. 4X times the worlds total steel(recycleable ~75++% clip depends on thickness of steel, thick steel recycle rate is much higher)
5. 20X times the worlds total aluminum(recycleable ~90% clip at bulk)
6. 3X worlds the worlds total copper.  (recycleable~90% clip at bulk)
7. Huge amounts of trace minerals which NO ONE currently has the production capacity of

So, JUST the USA Eastern Grid, solar panels ONLY, no batteries etc.  If we assume the recycle numbers above, in Virgin material USA Eastern Grid by ITSELF must consume for basic upkeep of said solar panels of the ENTIRE WORLDS production PER replacement cycle

1. 25X times world yearly production of glass
2. 1X Entire worlds production of plastic
3. Unknown concrete, but lets assume zero once installed(not true but best case)
4. 0.5X->1X Entire worlds production of steel
5. 1X Entire worlds production of aluminum
6. 0.3X Entire worlds production of Copper
7. Unknown trace elements such as silver, cadmium, telluride etc. 

 

Lets see how often do those panels need replacing? Every 40 years?  No one knows.  IF we go off historical numbers(20 years max)

So, USA Eastern Grid all by itself, JUST for the panels, NOT including, power lines, DC/AC converters, batteries, transportation, manufacturing, etc MUST YEARLY consume

1. 0.75X total worlds supply of glass
2. 2.5% of worlds total supply of plastic
3. Unknown amount of concrete
4. 2.5% of worlds steel production
5. 2.55% of worlds total aluminum production
6. ~1% of worlds total copper production
7. And unknown amounts of trace minerals which may not be able to economically be recycled

Remember this is ONLY for USA eastern grid. 

Do you suppose rest of world would like Power?  USA eastern grid is ~250Million  Rest of the world is ~8 Billion who want same lifestyle.  So Above needs for WHOLE world needs to multiple of ~30X minimum

So, for whole world to go solar and assuming we could actually distribute the solar power partially JUST FOR THE SOLAR PANELS, not including batteries, mining, refining, manufacturing, transporation, transmission, HVDC converters, etc...

1. 25X total increase in supply of glass
2. 100% more plastic
3. Unknown amount of concrete
4. Double worlds supply of steel
5. Double worlds supply of aluminum
6. 30% increase in copper
7. Unknown amounts of trace elements which more than likely would block this from happening to begin with until replacements are found or new sources. 

Batteries will require just as much as the solar panels

No mineral or material process has doubled in capacity in 10 years EVER in history of mankind. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeMFqkcPYcg

Who am I do disagree.... 😆

EDIT: oops, I only did the calc for the RAW virgin materials.  Multiply by 5-->9 for production as I went off the recycled numbers.  So, total production of the actual materials for production is 5X worlds YEARLY TOTAL by 5X or more. 

 

Edited January 12 by footeab@yahoo.com

[TailingsPond + 1,007]

32 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

No mineral or material process has doubled in capacity in 10 years EVER in history of mankind. 

 

LOL

There are countless examples of industries that have more than doubled in 10 years.

Haber process, Cotton ginny, printing press, assembly lines, chemical fertilization, herbicides, directional drilling, fracking, SAGD, etc.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

12 hours ago, lexington green said:

Then post the calculations here, everyone.  (And don't leave out the math part.)

He's great at spouting off without attaching anything to back up his warped views!

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

14 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

LOL

There are countless examples of industries that have more than doubled in 10 years.

Haber process, Cotton ginny, printing press, assembly lines, chemical fertilization, herbicides, directional drilling, fracking, SAGD, etc.

I know you are a government puke, but even an average dumb government puke knows the difference between MINERAL extraction and production of a product...

[Ecocharger + 1,473]

13 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

He's great at spouting off without attaching anything to back up his warped views!

You are a fine one to talk, Rob.

I have had to correct your points of view for a long time.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

Ahh just another day in Green Paradise...I know I know same old drama different but..Such Is Life.

Rental giant Hertz dumps EVs, including Teslas, for gas cars

Hertz is selling some Tesla Model 3 for as low as about $20,000, nearly half the purchase price for the cheapest variant of the compact sedan, its used car website showed.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/hertz-sell-about-20000-evs-us-fleet-2024-01-11/

Edited January 12 by Eyes Wide Open

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

Ohh Gezz the European darling is walking away from EZ's. It would seem they have connected to the Green Grid...Run Joey RUN!

Norway: Plug-In Car Sales Collapsed By 80% In January 2023

The entire Norwegian new car market is down by almost 77 percent year-over-year.

 

https://insideevs.com/news/651052/norway-plugin-car-sales-january2023/

And now they are being admonished...go figure.

Are Norwegians selfish for complaining about electricity prices?

And is it acceptable for some to take advantage of the situation in order to enrich themselves at the expense of others?

 

https://partner.sciencenorway.no/cities-climate-climate-change/are-norwegians-selfish-for-complaining-about-electricity-prices/2074782

Edited January 12 by Eyes Wide Open

[TailingsPond + 1,007]

2 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

I know you are a government puke, but even an average dumb government puke knows the difference between MINERAL extraction and production of a product...

You said "material process" don't get made when I include material processing. 

Directional drilling, fracking, and SAGD are mining (oil is a mineral).  As for other mining, invention of explosives, heap leaching, were huge jumps in effectiveness.

[TailingsPond + 1,007]

17 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

EDIT: oops, I only did the calc for the RAW virgin materials.  Multiply by 5-->9 for production as I went off the recycled numbers.  So, total production of the actual materials for production is 5X worlds YEARLY TOTAL by 5X or more. 

 

 

LOL

At the end of all that made up nonsense he puts in a 500 - 900% error range at the end just to make his "math" even more BS.  

Secondly, "I went off recycled numbers" is BS.  His "recycled numbers" are all rounded or even and therefore not real measurements; it's made up shit.  Nothing in the real world is exactly 25%, x2, x10, etc. When you see an abnormally large amount of integers or even numbers in Real number data sets (x∈R) you know the data is shit. 

Is that five times the world total or 25 times the world total (5x5)? 

 

Edited January 13 by TailingsPond

[TailingsPond + 1,007]

18 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

 From link 20GW system capacity ~ = 15% CF at best = ~2.5GW at best continuous in summer.  Winter CF is ~7% or 1.5GW assuming this is in New Mexico(no hail storms like in Texas, hurricanes in Florida or eastern USA which destroy all the panels every ~10 years or so and gargantuan HVDC lines to Eastern USA.    Average 20GW nameplate capacity in reality gives ~2GW actual and assumes you have massive power storage.  Far worse the farther north you install this capacity. 

[]

Panels expected age ... Uh... if Hail country ~10 years.  Lets assume we are placing ALL these solar panels in New Mexico or Arizona.  It is hot so efficiency will take a ~15% hit, but lets ignore that as well.  Current panels have guarantees of 80% capacity at 20yrs... Good Luck.🤑  I have old panels with same "guarantee" and they reach ~50%-->75%, most at the 50%-->60% depending on panel and are only ~10 yrs old, might be as old as 12(Not sure).  I see this will NOT change until Solar panels go to DOUBLE SIDED glass keeping oxygen out.  --> Once again double weight, and increase cost by ~30% on the panel(true if you buy them today) and ~total is probably 40% more expensive once installed...

 

Just look at this passage, every number he pretended to use in his math is an integer or approximated rounded number.

You can't do the math when every variable is garbage.  Data error propagation stats are far too advanced for the this forum.  Basically the errors in each individual measurement increase when you multiply them together.

Using integers and a simple X = A x B equation as an example:

Data point A is 2 ± 1 so A can be 1, 2, or 3.

Data point B is 100 ± 10 so B can be 90, 91, 92, ...100 ... 108, 109, 110

When we multiply A x B to get X we can see that the result for X can be as low as 90 (1x90) or as high as 330 (3x110).

"The true value is somewhere between 90 to 330" is not at all useful.  foots "math" is made up crap.

 

Edited January 13 by TailingsPond

[Ecocharger + 1,473]

On 1/12/2024 at 5:42 PM, Eyes Wide Open said:

Ohh Gezz the European darling is walking away from EZ's. It would seem they have connected to the Green Grid...Run Joey RUN!

Norway: Plug-In Car Sales Collapsed By 80% In January 2023

The entire Norwegian new car market is down by almost 77 percent year-over-year.

 

https://insideevs.com/news/651052/norway-plugin-car-sales-january2023/

And now they are being admonished...go figure.

Are Norwegians selfish for complaining about electricity prices?

And is it acceptable for some to take advantage of the situation in order to enrich themselves at the expense of others?

 

https://partner.sciencenorway.no/cities-climate-climate-change/are-norwegians-selfish-for-complaining-about-electricity-prices/2074782

This appears to be a trend in Europe, with private EV sales in Britain collapsing when government tax subsidies are withdrawn.

EVs are a fragile market, cannot survive without massive government support.

Edited January 13 by Ecocharger

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

3 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

EVs are a fragile market, cannot survive without massive government support.

Actually there was never a demand for Green Energy...on most continent's. But the EU was was out of gas...oil and coal..Green was there only hope...ohh I do believe China fits in there somewhere.

I leave it with you...your mialge my very.

[notsonice + 1,255]

On 1/13/2024 at 8:22 PM, Eyes Wide Open said:

Actually there was never a demand for Green Energy...on most continent's. But the EU was was out of gas...oil and coal..Green was there only hope...ohh I do believe China fits in there somewhere.

I leave it with you...your mialge my very.

enjoy the Green revolution..............

and in the meantime you just keep babbling BS ...

 

This Year One in Five Cars Sold Globally Will Be an EV

Yale E360

https://e360.yale.edu › digest › ev-sales-projections-2024

 

 

 

5 days ago — Global sales of plug-in cars are expected to grow by 21 percent this year, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Analysts project sales .

 

Electric Vehicle Market Looks Headed for 22% Growth ...

Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com › newsletters › 2024-01-09

 

 

 

6 days ago — We expect global passenger EV sales — battery-electrics and plug-in hybrids — to increase 21% in 2024 to 16.7 million, with 70% of those being 

 

Analysts: EVs will keep gaining US market share in 2024

Green Car Reports

https://www.greencarreports.com › News › Electric Cars

 

 

 

4 days ago — Analysts estimate that U.S. EV sales reached 1.6 million units in 2023, up from 1.1 million in 2022. They predict 1.9 million EV sales for 2024, ...

 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

On 1/14/2024 at 3:22 AM, Eyes Wide Open said:

Actually there was never a demand for Green Energy...on most continent's. But the EU was was out of gas...oil and coal..Green was there only hope...ohh I do believe China fits in there somewhere.

I leave it with you...your mialge my very.

"Your mialge my very"

Yep another profound comment from you.

[El Gato + 254]

14 hours ago, notsonice said:

enjoy the Green revolution..............

and in the meantime you just keep babbling BS ...

 

This Year One in Five Cars Sold Globally Will Be an EV

Yale E360

https://e360.yale.edu › digest › ev-sales-projections-2024

 

 

 

5 days ago — Global sales of plug-in cars are expected to grow by 21 percent this year, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Analysts project sales .

 

Electric Vehicle Market Looks Headed for 22% Growth ...

Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com › newsletters › 2024-01-09

 

 

 

6 days ago — We expect global passenger EV sales — battery-electrics and plug-in hybrids — to increase 21% in 2024 to 16.7 million, with 70% of those being 

 

Analysts: EVs will keep gaining US market share in 2024

Green Car Reports

https://www.greencarreports.com › News › Electric Cars

 

 

 

4 days ago — Analysts estimate that U.S. EV sales reached 1.6 million units in 2023, up from 1.1 million in 2022. They predict 1.9 million EV sales for 2024, ...

 

Meh, everyone's entitled to their pipe dreams. All they are guesses, not solid data

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

17 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

"Your mialge my very"

Yep another profound comment from you.

Good catch...very

For instance, absolutely, exceptionally, extremely, incredibly, and tremendously tend to be used in a positive sense to show that something is important or impressive. Conversely, awfully, deeply, exceedingly, excessively, and terribly are typically used in more somber and serious situations.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

5 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Good catch...very

For instance, absolutely, exceptionally, extremely, incredibly, and tremendously tend to be used in a positive sense to show that something is important or impressive. Conversely, awfully, deeply, exceedingly, excessively, and terribly are typically used in more somber and serious situations.

You literally got every single word wrong, there are typos and then there's illiteracy.

You're now trying to justify using 1 word wrongly to make your point lol.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

8 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

You literally got every single word wrong, there are typos and then there's illiteracy.

You're now trying to justify using 1 word wrongly to make your point lol.

 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

15 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

 

can you not find any new memes these are getting very repetitive!

[Charleyman1 + 1]

On 2/7/2023 at 6:55 PM, markslawson said:

The story below, which appeared in Clean Energy Wire, February 6, is typical of EV sales in general. Once the subsidies are withdrawn, buyers lose interest. However, it should be noted that the subsidies are still enough to boost battery electric vehicles as opposed to plug-in hybrids.

NEWS
 
06 Feb 2023, 13:20 Benjamin Wehrmann
E-car sales plummet in Germany following subsidy cut

Registrations of new electric vehicles collapsed in Germany following cuts in buyers’ premiums at the beginning of the year. Registrations for battery electric vehicles dropped about 83 percent to 18,100 in January from 104,300 in December, when many people rushed to receive the full subsidy, according to the Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA). The share of e-cars fell to 15 percent in January from more than 55 percent in December, while total car registrations dropped three percent, car industry association VDA said.

The government decided in mid-2022 to reduce support payments for new e-cars, arguing they had become increasingly attractive for buyers even without support payments. Last year, e-car buyers received up 6,000 euros from the state when buying a new vehicle, plus up to 3,000 euros from the car manufacturers themselves. At the start of this year, support for battery electric or fuel cell cars dropped to 3,000-4,500 euros.

The lower support rates are likely to dampen e-car sales throughout the year, VDA said. In total, it expects sales of about 510,000 battery electric vehicles in 2023, eight percent more than last year; and sales of about 250,000 plug-in hybrid cars, a drop of 30 percent compared to 2022. On balance, total EV sales will fall by eight percent this year, the lobby group estimated. Given the lower support payments, “it’s important to strengthen people’s trust in e-mobility in different ways” to keep e-car sales up, VDA head Hildegard Müller said. Customers still can’t rely on easy charging options anytime and everywhere, Müller argued, which should be remedied quickly to ensure EVs are attractive to buyers even without a premium.

I hope NO ONE is surprised on this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

Well, it is about time: China bans millions of EV's of the light variety which idiots all over the world have counted as "EV sales vehicles".  Guess this will put a giant crimp in the cowardly liars regarding EV sales figures... Nah... cowardly liars never change until they receive Darwin awards.