Ecocharger + 1,486 DL July 14 On 7/5/2024 at 3:27 AM, Jeroen Goudswaard said: If a foreign government subsidizes their own industry, with the ultimate goal to squash the industry in your country where they export to, your can do two things. 1. Start subsidizing your own industry (e.g., "Invest in America Act"). 2. Start putting tariffs on the imports from that foreign government. The first option means that every tax payer in the country is subsidizing an industry. It also won't make your own industry internationally very competitive, because third countries will start taxing your exports again. The good thing is that it creates jobs. However, does the USA need more jobs? Maybe locally, but in many places, there are already too few hands to do the work. The second option only affects the buyers of the product that is being dumped. The general tax payer is better off. Be it solar panels or cars, China has seen tariffs on them. What this policy might do is to force the foreign entity to start producing in your country. You get all the benefits of option 1, without spending tax money on subsidies. Tariffs trump subsidies any day: the WTO agrees with this view. The WTO agrees? The WTO was set up to reduce tariffs for solid good reasons. Tariffs always reduce the value of national product and consumer well being. Always. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,486 DL July 14 (edited) On 7/12/2024 at 10:55 AM, Rob Plant said: So in the article you reference your very worst bearish scenario is that EV sales fall 2% y-o-y and you claim thats "cratering". Your own article is saying the likely scenario is a y-o-y growth of 21%!!! Can't you read??? You are referencing material that actually counters your argument! Are you still confused? Wow. Let's try again. I guess the full quote was too much for you to handle? "We think our bear scenario calling for a year-over-year decline in EV sales volume in 2024 has become more realistic given the three negative factors outlined above. We previously suggested that EV penetration could vary considerably under various conditions. Despite the current slowdown in EVs, our base-case scenario still calls for EV sales volume to rise 21% year-over-year in 2024. But under our bear-case scenario, we see EV sales volume declining 2% year-over-year, and negative growth would likely result in oversupply across the EV supply chain." Edited July 14 by Ecocharger 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 1,013 GE July 14 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Ecocharger said: Despite the current slowdown in EVs, our base-case scenario still calls for EV sales volume to rise 21% year-over-year in 2024. But under our bear-case scenario, we see EV sales volume declining 2% year-over-year, and negative growth would likely result in oversupply across the EV supply chain." Perhaps they mean that there will be 21% growth in 2024 and 2% less of that in 2025 and each year thereafter. Also remember, all these numbers are just guesses are not actually right. So it would go +21%, +19%, +17%, +15%, ... So yes slower growth but still significant growth even after several years. Pretty hard to get that kind of growth from any other industry. Edited July 14 by TailingsPond Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,486 DL July 14 (edited) On 7/12/2024 at 11:01 AM, Rob Plant said: Eco the clue in Notsonice's statement of 60% is the word NEW (highlighted above)! I understand that you struggle with reading and the basic understanding of comprehending sentences. Its why you don't understand the whole discussion. Well, no. That 60% figure is not anywhere near the source of the article. The article indicates that in the first half of 2024 there were 16.8 million new sales of which 4.3 were new vehicle (including hybrids). That is about 25% of the new market. Not anywhere near 60%. Plugin EVs would be about 75% of that, or about 20% of the new market. The last time I looked, 20% is much less than 60%. And of the total vehicle fleet and market only about 4.1%. That means about 96% of the total Chinese vehicle fleet is fossil fuel. And well over 99% of the transport sector is fossil fuel. http://www.news.cn/politics/20240708/f655fffe62e84f60a8347c72be6379aa/c.html You may borrow my handkerchief. Edited July 14 by Ecocharger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
footeab@yahoo.com + 2,194 July 14 35 minutes ago, Ecocharger said: The WTO agrees? The WTO was set up to reduce tariffs for solid good reasons. Tariffs always reduce the value of national product and consumer well being. Always. WTO sucks as it places ZERO barriers to slaving countries. It does not distinguish between like minded countries. Everyone is in the same Bucket--> Which is insane other than to those in power who LOVE slavery--> They make $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Tariffs are great. Jeron is right. Why? You can't subsidize your way out of a problem. NEVER works. Just creates ever more regulatory Burden, and ever larger GOVERNMENT, until ALL business is government --> Pure Socialism = pure slavery just as pure capitalism turns to pure slavery--> AKA China/Vietnam... If you tariff these slave countries, you allow your OWN business oriented people to compete or COUNTRIES who are LIKE YOU, and have regulations, LIKE YOU, to compete. The problem is regulation the tariffs(yes government) which is now open to bribes, etc. WTO sucks as it places ZERO barriers to slaving countries. It does not distinguish between like minded countries. Everyone is in the same Bucket--> Which is insane other than to those in power who LOVE slavery--> They make $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,266 DM July 15 (edited) 2 hours ago, Ecocharger said: Well, no. That 60% figure is not anywhere near the source of the article. The article indicates that in the first half of 2024 there were 16.8 million new sales of which 4.3 were new vehicle (including hybrids). That is about 25% of the new market. Not anywhere near 60%. Plugin EVs would be about 75% of that, or about 20% of the new market. The last time I looked, 20% is much less than 60%. And of the total vehicle fleet and market only about 4.1%. That means about 96% of the total Chinese vehicle fleet is fossil fuel. And well over 99% of the transport sector is fossil fuel. http://www.news.cn/politics/20240708/f655fffe62e84f60a8347c72be6379aa/c.html You may borrow my handkerchief. China's NEV penetration at retail was a record 48.4 percent in June, up 13.5 percentage points from 34.9 percent a year earlier and up 1.4 percentage points from 47 percent in May. Retail sales of passenger NEVs in China totaled 856,000 units in June China's passenger vehicles, including sedans, SUVs and MPVs, retailed 1,767,000 units in June, down 6.7 percent year-on-year but up 3.2 percent from May. you need someone to run your calculator.......... In June EVs/plugin hybrids are now 48.4 percent of the market with a steady monthly increase of an average of 1.5 percent per month in the last 6 months Edited July 15 by notsonice Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,486 DL July 15 2 hours ago, notsonice said: China's NEV penetration at retail was a record 48.4 percent in June, up 13.5 percentage points from 34.9 percent a year earlier and up 1.4 percentage points from 47 percent in May. Retail sales of passenger NEVs in China totaled 856,000 units in June China's passenger vehicles, including sedans, SUVs and MPVs, retailed 1,767,000 units in June, down 6.7 percent year-on-year but up 3.2 percent from May. you need someone to run your calculator.......... In June EVs/plugin hybrids are now 48.4 percent of the market with a steady monthly increase of an average of 1.5 percent per month in the last 6 months No, your numbers are off. And you do not have any source, I guess you just pulled those numbers out of your hat? In the first half of 2024 there were 16.8 million new sales of which 4.3 were new vehicle (including hybrids). That is about 25% of the new market. Not anywhere near 60%. Plugin EVs would be about 75% of that, or about 20% of the new market. The last time I looked, 20% is much less than 60%. And of the total vehicle fleet and market only about 4.1%. That means about 96% of the total Chinese vehicle fleet is fossil fuel. And well over 99% of the transport sector is fossil fuel. http://www.news.cn/politics/20240708/f655fffe62e84f60a8347c72be6379aa/c.html Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Plant + 2,756 RP July 15 (edited) 9 hours ago, Ecocharger said: Are you still confused? Wow. Let's try again. I guess the full quote was too much for you to handle? "We think our bear scenario calling for a year-over-year decline in EV sales volume in 2024 has become more realistic given the three negative factors outlined above. We previously suggested that EV penetration could vary considerably under various conditions. Despite the current slowdown in EVs, our base-case scenario still calls for EV sales volume to rise 21% year-over-year in 2024. But under our bear-case scenario, we see EV sales volume declining 2% year-over-year, and negative growth would likely result in oversupply across the EV supply chain." Bwahahaha! You really cant read can you? What do you think the article says??? Let me help you AGAIN In their "bear-case" scenario EV sales fall 2% y-o-y HOWEVER thats still growth for many years, their "base-case" expect EV sales to INCREASE by 21%. So they are EXPECTING a 21% INCREASE!!!! They don't even state what they think the "bull-case" figure would be but obviously a lot higher than 21% growth. Mr economist do you even understand the terms a "bear market" and a "bull market"? Maybe you think they are referring to the sale of animals?? Edited July 15 by Rob Plant 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,266 DM July 15 (edited) 7 hours ago, Ecocharger said: No, your numbers are off. And you do not have any source, I guess you just pulled those numbers out of your hat? In the first half of 2024 there were 16.8 million new sales of which 4.3 were new vehicle (including hybrids). That is about 25% of the new market. Not anywhere near 60%. Plugin EVs would be about 75% of that, or about 20% of the new market. The last time I looked, 20% is much less than 60%. And of the total vehicle fleet and market only about 4.1%. That means about 96% of the total Chinese vehicle fleet is fossil fuel. And well over 99% of the transport sector is fossil fuel. http://www.news.cn/politics/20240708/f655fffe62e84f60a8347c72be6379aa/c.html In the first half of 2024 there were 16.8 million new sales of which 4.3 were new vehicle (including hybrids).?????? thanks for making up the number 16.8 million new sales for the China market..........here is the real number So far this year, cumulative retail sales of all passenger cars in China totaled 10,114,000 units, up 3 percent year-on-year. So far this year, cumulative retail sales of passenger NEVs in China totaled 4,243,000 units, up 33 percent from the same period last year. source https://cnevpost.com/2024/07/10/china-nev-retail-jul-1-7-2024/#:~:text=Home » Industry News-,China NEV retail at 130%2C000 in Jul 1-7%2C up,from same period last month&text=China's NEV retail penetration stood,percent year-to-date.&text=Retail sales of new energy,the beginning of the month. now you can do the math...Enjoy the result and the numbers I quote.......... not my numbers ...the numbers are from the source ...official China Gov numbers nice to see once again that you are unable to deal with the reality that EVs have taken over the China Market....which again is the largest New car market in the world and the latest News out of China is for June 2024 48.4 percent of the New car market is now EVs/plug in hybrids and it is heading to 60 percent by year end..... 2025......and new clunkers in China will be in the minority for the entire year....dropping to less than 25 percent by the end of 2025 and 2026????? will any New car dealer in China take a clunker in trade when selling an EV???? ha ha ha Cash for Clunkers ...they are heading to the scrap yards PS And of the total vehicle fleet and market only about 4.1%. That means about 96% of the total Chinese vehicle fleet is fossil fuel....is old data on the road in China it is now 7% and changing fast....... Luddite.......the days of Clunkers on the streets of China are numbered........ Edited July 15 by notsonice Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,486 DL July 16 18 hours ago, Rob Plant said: Bwahahaha! You really cant read can you? What do you think the article says??? Let me help you AGAIN In their "bear-case" scenario EV sales fall 2% y-o-y HOWEVER thats still growth for many years, their "base-case" expect EV sales to INCREASE by 21%. So they are EXPECTING a 21% INCREASE!!!! They don't even state what they think the "bull-case" figure would be but obviously a lot higher than 21% growth. Mr economist do you even understand the terms a "bear market" and a "bull market"? Maybe you think they are referring to the sale of animals?? Rob, I guess you cannot even read words that are in bold type! Let's try it again, "We think our bear scenario calling for a year-over-year decline in EV sales volume in 2024 has become more realistic given the three negative factors outlined above." They are moving toward the Bear scenario. Very simple. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,486 DL July 16 (edited) 15 hours ago, notsonice said: In the first half of 2024 there were 16.8 million new sales of which 4.3 were new vehicle (including hybrids).?????? thanks for making up the number 16.8 million new sales for the China market..........here is the real number So far this year, cumulative retail sales of all passenger cars in China totaled 10,114,000 units, up 3 percent year-on-year. So far this year, cumulative retail sales of passenger NEVs in China totaled 4,243,000 units, up 33 percent from the same period last year. source https://cnevpost.com/2024/07/10/china-nev-retail-jul-1-7-2024/#:~:text=Home » Industry News-,China NEV retail at 130%2C000 in Jul 1-7%2C up,from same period last month&text=China's NEV retail penetration stood,percent year-to-date.&text=Retail sales of new energy,the beginning of the month. now you can do the math...Enjoy the result and the numbers I quote.......... not my numbers ...the numbers are from the source ...official China Gov numbers nice to see once again that you are unable to deal with the reality that EVs have taken over the China Market....which again is the largest New car market in the world and the latest News out of China is for June 2024 48.4 percent of the New car market is now EVs/plug in hybrids and it is heading to 60 percent by year end..... 2025......and new clunkers in China will be in the minority for the entire year....dropping to less than 25 percent by the end of 2025 and 2026????? will any New car dealer in China take a clunker in trade when selling an EV???? ha ha ha Cash for Clunkers ...they are heading to the scrap yards PS And of the total vehicle fleet and market only about 4.1%. That means about 96% of the total Chinese vehicle fleet is fossil fuel....is old data on the road in China it is now 7% and changing fast....... Luddite.......the days of Clunkers on the streets of China are numbered........ And China is now investing in the development of new fossil fuel cars for the masses....I guess you forgot about that one. No, your numbers are just plain wrong, I guess you are using the wrong source again. In the first half of 2024 there were 16.8 million new sales of which 4.3 were new vehicle (including hybrids). That is about 25% of the new market. Not anywhere near 60%. Plugin EVs would be about 75% of that, or about 20% of the new market. The last time I looked, 20% is much less than 60%. And of the total vehicle fleet and market only about 4.1%. That means about 96% of the total Chinese vehicle fleet is fossil fuel. And well over 99% of the transport sector is fossil fuel. http://www.news.cn/politics/20240708/f655fffe62e84f60a8347c72be6379aa/c.html Edited July 16 by Ecocharger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,266 DM July 16 20 hours ago, Ecocharger said: And China is now investing in the development of new fossil fuel cars for the masses....I guess you forgot about that one. No, your numbers are just plain wrong, I guess you are using the wrong source again. And China is now investing in the development of new fossil fuel cars for the masses of which 4.3 were new vehicle (including hybrids). That is about 25% of the new market. Not anywhere near 60%. Plugin EVs would be about 75% of that, or about 20% of the new market. The last time I looked, 20% is much less than 60%. And of the total vehicle fleet and market only about 4.1%. That means about 96% of the total Chinese vehicle fleet is fossil fuel. And well over 99% of the transport sector is fossil fuel. http://www.news.cn/politics/20240708/f655fffe62e84f60a8347c72be6379aa/c.html you love posting garbage with no sources cited here is reality So far this year, cumulative retail sales of all passenger cars in China totaled 10,114,000 units, up 3 percent year-on-year. So far this year, cumulative retail sales of passenger NEVs in China totaled 4,243,000 units, up 33 percent from the same period last year. source https://cnevpost.com/2024/07/10/china-nev-retail-jul-1-7-2024/#:~:text=Home » Industry News-,China NEV retail at 130%2C000 in Jul 1-7%2C up,from same period last month&text=China's NEV retail penetration stood,percent year-to-date.&text=Retail sales of new energy,the beginning of the month. And China is now investing in the development of new fossil fuel cars for the masses????? newsflash.............ICE vehicle sales are down in China Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TailingsPond + 1,013 GE July 17 (edited) On 7/15/2024 at 9:07 PM, Ecocharger said: "We think our bear scenario calling for a year-over-year decline in EV sales volume in 2024 has become more realistic given the three negative factors outlined above." They are moving toward the Bear scenario. Very simple. +21%, +19%, +17%, +15%, +13%, ... y-o-y is their bear scenario. Edited July 17 by TailingsPond Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jeroen Goudswaard + 61 July 19 On 7/15/2024 at 12:48 AM, Ecocharger said: The WTO agrees? The WTO was set up to reduce tariffs for solid good reasons. Tariffs always reduce the value of national product and consumer well being. Always. WTO | Anti-dumping - Gateway If a company exports a product at a price lower than the price it normally charges on its own home market, it is said to be “dumping” the product. The WTO Agreement does not regulate the actions of companies engaged in “dumping”. Its focus is on how governments can or cannot react to dumping — it disciplines anti-dumping actions, and it is often called the “Anti-dumping Agreement”. Subsidies and countervailing measures This agreement does two things: it disciplines the use of subsidies, and it regulates the actions countries can take to counter the effects of subsidies. It says a country can use the WTO’s dispute settlement procedure to seek the withdrawal of the subsidy or the removal of its adverse effects. Or the country can launch its own investigation and ultimately charge extra duty (known as “countervailing duty”) on subsidized imports that are found to be hurting domestic producers. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jeroen Goudswaard + 61 July 19 (edited) On 7/15/2024 at 1:28 AM, footeab@yahoo.com said: WTO sucks as it places ZERO barriers to slaving countries. It does not distinguish between like minded countries. Everyone is in the same Bucket--> Which is insane other than to those in power who LOVE slavery--> They make $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Tariffs are great. Jeron is right. Why? You can't subsidize your way out of a problem. NEVER works. Just creates ever more regulatory Burden, and ever larger GOVERNMENT, until ALL business is government --> Pure Socialism = pure slavery just as pure capitalism turns to pure slavery--> AKA China/Vietnam... If you tariff these slave countries, you allow your OWN business oriented people to compete or COUNTRIES who are LIKE YOU, and have regulations, LIKE YOU, to compete. The problem is regulation the tariffs(yes government) which is now open to bribes, etc. WTO sucks as it places ZERO barriers to slaving countries. It does not distinguish between like minded countries. Everyone is in the same Bucket--> Which is insane other than to those in power who LOVE slavery--> They make $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Modern day slavery (forced labour) is not handled through the WTO, but through the ILO. The WTO is there to encourage trade, not to enforce the treaties falling under different UN organizations. Unfortunately, not all countries in the world have ratified the "forced labour" ILO 29. Especially the USA stands out as a major blocker (together with Afghanistan, and some Pacific micro-states) [see below]. I am uncertain why the USA does not want to ratify - I suspect it does not want to adhere to article 2 that bans the use of prison labour without government supervision (and many prisons are private endeavours). Hence, the WTO cannot use the ILO 29 to put blockers to "slaving countries", because a major playor does not play ball. In the end, the EU has chosen to just ban any product from its market made by forced labour (23 April 2024). Edited July 19 by Jeroen Goudswaard typo. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
footeab@yahoo.com + 2,194 July 19 1 hour ago, Jeroen Goudswaard said: Modern day slavery (forced labour) is not handled through the WTO, but through the ILO. The WTO is there to encourage trade, not to enforce the treaties falling under different UN organizations. Unfortunately, not all countries in the world have ratified the "forced labour" ILO 29. Especially the USA stands out as a major blocker (together with Afghanistan, and some Pacific micro-states) [see below]. I am uncertain why the USA does not want to ratify - I suspect it does not want to adhere to article 2 that bans the use of prison labour without government supervision (and many prisons are private endeavours). Hence, the WTO cannot use the ILO 29 to put blockers to "slaving countries", because a major playor does not play ball. In the end, the EU has chosen to just ban any product from its market made by forced labour (23 April 2024). I love all the lawyeritis's of the world who pretend that if there is a piece of paper, then it is actually followed, instead of just doing the right thing. Tariffs are there to be used as a quick hammer to keep friends as friends and enemies down, not to be nit picked lawyered to death. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jeroen Goudswaard + 61 July 19 5 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said: I love all the lawyeritis's of the world who pretend that if there is a piece of paper, then it is actually followed, instead of just doing the right thing. Tariffs are there to be used as a quick hammer to keep friends as friends and enemies down, not to be nit picked lawyered to death. Doing "the right thing" is very different for each and every country. That's how wars start. Or trade wars for that matter. The piece of paper is there to agree on what is acceptable and what not. Without that piece of paper, every trade block is on their own. Biggest dog wins. And you can be sure that the outcome is never a win-win. A tariff on dumping could protect the local production capability. However, the Trump-Biden tariffs of $80 billion pa are among others on things like semiconductors, natural graphite, magnets, cranes, and solar cells. Stuff that the USA does not even make itself. Essentially a tax on the people of the USA, rather than a punishment of China for dumping. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,486 DL July 19 Ford has now scrapped its plans for an EV expansion project and replaced it with plans to expand fossil fuel vehicles. The EV revolution is over before it ever really took off. This is not a surprise, given the foolish ideas which fueled the nonsense in the first place. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/18/ford-canada-large-truck-production.html "Ford Motor will expand production of its large Super Duty trucks to a Canadian plant that was previously set to be converted into an all-electric vehicle hub. The new plans include investing about $3 billion to expand Super Duty production, including $2.3 billion at Ford’s Oakville Assembly Complex in Ontario, Canada, Ford said Thursday. Ford said the Canadian plant, which is expected to come online in 2026, will add annual capacity of roughly 100,000 units of the highly profitable pickups." "Ford Motor will expand production of its large Super Duty trucks to a Canadian plant that was previously set to be converted into an all-electric vehicle hub. The new plans include investing about $3 billion to expand Super Duty production, including $2.3 billion at Ford’s Oakville Assembly Complex in Ontario, Canada, Ford said Thursday. The remaining investment will be used to increase production at supporting facilities in the U.S. and Canada, the company said. Ford currently produces Super Duty trucks – the larger siblings of the F-150 full-size pickup used largely by commercial and business customers – at plants in Ohio and Kentucky. Ford said the Canadian plant, which is expected to come online in 2026, will add capacity of roughly 100,000 units annually. “Super Duty is a vital tool for businesses and people around the world and, even with our Kentucky Truck Plant and Ohio Assembly Plant running flat out, we can’t meet the demand,” Ford CEO Jim Farley said in a release. “This move benefits our customers and supercharges our Ford Pro commercial business.” Investors responded favorably to the news, sending Ford stock to a new 52-week high before shares leveled off later in the day amid a broader market decline." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,486 DL July 19 On 7/16/2024 at 7:29 PM, notsonice said: you love posting garbage with no sources cited here is reality So far this year, cumulative retail sales of all passenger cars in China totaled 10,114,000 units, up 3 percent year-on-year. So far this year, cumulative retail sales of passenger NEVs in China totaled 4,243,000 units, up 33 percent from the same period last year. source https://cnevpost.com/2024/07/10/china-nev-retail-jul-1-7-2024/#:~:text=Home » Industry News-,China NEV retail at 130%2C000 in Jul 1-7%2C up,from same period last month&text=China's NEV retail penetration stood,percent year-to-date.&text=Retail sales of new energy,the beginning of the month. And China is now investing in the development of new fossil fuel cars for the masses????? newsflash.............ICE vehicle sales are down in China Your numbers are not relevant, "The Ministry of Public Security released the latest statistics on the 8th. By the end of June 2024, the number of motor vehicles in China will reach 440 million, including 345 million cars and 24.72 million new energy vehicles; there will be 532 million motor vehicle drivers, including 496 million car drivers. In the first half of 2024, 16.8 million new motor vehicles were registered nationwide, and 13.97 million new drivers were licensed." "As of the end of June, the number of new energy vehicles in China reached 24.72 million, of which 18.134 million were pure electric vehicles. In the first half of the year, 4.397 million new energy vehicles were registered, a year-on-year increase of 39.41%." In the first half of 2024 there were 16.8 million new sales of which 4.3 were new vehicle (including hybrids). That is about 25% of the new market. Not anywhere near 60%. Plugin EVs would be about 75% of that, or about 20% of the new market. The last time I looked, 20% is much less than 60%. And of the total vehicle fleet and market only about 4.1%. That means about 96% of the total Chinese vehicle fleet is fossil fuel. And well over 99% of the transport sector is fossil fuel. China is developing a new generation of fossil fuel vehicles to allow the masses to possess personal transportation. The EV revolution is dead in the water before it ever really got going. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,486 DL July 19 (edited) On 7/17/2024 at 12:05 AM, TailingsPond said: +21%, +19%, +17%, +15%, +13%, ... y-o-y is their bear scenario. No, the bear scenario was identified as an absolute decline in sales YOY, I guess you missed that. "...our bear scenario calling for a year-over-year decline in EV sales volume in 2024 has become more realistic given the three negative factors outlined above." You ignored the absolute decline in EV sales since last November, and the continuing pile-up of unsold EVs on sales lots...things are going south in the EV world. Ford is now converting planned EV production into fossil fuel production...the era of EVs is done and gone before it ever really took off. Edited July 19 by Ecocharger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,266 DM July 21 (edited) On 7/19/2024 at 5:19 PM, Ecocharger said: No, the bear scenario was identified as an absolute decline in sales YOY, I guess you missed that. "...our bear scenario calling for a year-over-year decline in EV sales volume in 2024 has become more realistic given the three negative factors outlined above." You ignored the absolute decline in EV sales since last November, and the continuing pile-up of unsold EVs on sales lots...things are going south in the EV world. Ford is now converting planned EV production into fossil fuel production...the era of EVs is done and gone before it ever really took off. Oil demand is crapping out.....Your beloved country of China is ditching ICE vehicles and is now a Full Blown all in on EVs country enjoy and now Fuel Oil is way down........ Peak already happened...... China is no longer OPECs best friend Reuters China's first-half 2024 fuel oil imports slide 11% y/y China's total fuel oil imports slipped 11% in the first half of 2024, data showed on Saturday, amid a backdrop of weak refining margins and... . 19 hours ago Edited July 21 by notsonice Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,266 DM July 21 pesky EV's ......... Oil is doomed to follow Coal down down down S&P Global CHINA DATA: June oil products imports slump to 20-month low of 3 mil mt June crude imports drop 11% on year to 11.4 mil b/d H1 crude imports fall 3% on year, oil product exports down 4% 2024 crude imports under... . 1 week ago Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
footeab@yahoo.com + 2,194 July 21 35 minutes ago, notsonice said: Oil demand is crapping out.....You beloved country of China is ditching ICE vehicles and is now a Full Blown all in on EVs country enjoy and now Fuel Oil is way down........ Peak already happened...... China is no longer OPECs best friend Reuters China's first-half 2024 fuel oil imports slide 11% y/y China's total fuel oil imports slipped 11% in the first half of 2024, data showed on Saturday, amid a backdrop of weak refining margins and... . 19 hours ago Exports are down... their housing market is also crashing... Major businesses are leaving January exports fall https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/12/business/china-exports-drop-intl-hnk/index.html March exports/imports fall https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-march-exports-imports-shrink-miss-forecasts-by-big-margins-2024-04-12/ June Exports grow, imports fall https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-12/china-exports-rise-for-third-straight-month-in-boost-to-economy The above shows flat or falling economy... of course oil imports fall... Also add that giant incentives in China for electric vehicles in terms of liscensing and manufacturing Market and government driven Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,266 DM July 21 (edited) 12 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said: Exports are down... their housing market is also crashing... Major businesses are leaving January exports fall https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/12/business/china-exports-drop-intl-hnk/index.html March exports/imports fall https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-march-exports-imports-shrink-miss-forecasts-by-big-margins-2024-04-12/ June Exports grow, imports fall https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-12/china-exports-rise-for-third-straight-month-in-boost-to-economy The above shows flat or falling economy... of course oil imports fall... Also add that giant incentives in China for electric vehicles in terms of liscensing and manufacturing Market and government driven China is down??????? when is an increase in GDP shows flat or falling????? only in your upside down delusional world China reports second-quarter GDP growth of 4.7% stop using drugs.........you are making up BS and you are unable to stop...get help do you have anything on EV sales.....Booming and adding to the GDP..ICE vehicle sales dropping like a rock and subtracting from the GDP the oil economy in China is falling down....pay attention the Green economy in China is expanding at a torrid pace CNBC China reports second-quarter GDP growth of 4.7%, missing expectations China's National Bureau of Statistics on Monday said the country's second-quarter GDP rose by 4.7%. That's slower than the 5.3% year on year... . 6 days ago and the backbone of the expanding economy in China ING Think China’s economy is not in a Great Decline but a Great Transition China's near-term challenges and long-term uncertainties are plentiful, but the widespread pessimism towards the Chinese economy and markets... . Mar 27, 2024 Carbon Brief Analysis: Clean energy was top driver of China’s economic growth in 2023 Solar power, along with manufacturing capacity for solar panels, EVs and batteries, were the main focus of China's clean-energy investments... . Jan 25, 2024 Edited July 21 by notsonice Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,486 DL July 24 (edited) On 7/21/2024 at 1:04 PM, notsonice said: China is down??????? when is an increase in GDP shows flat or falling????? only in your upside down delusional world China reports second-quarter GDP growth of 4.7% stop using drugs.........you are making up BS and you are unable to stop...get help do you have anything on EV sales.....Booming and adding to the GDP..ICE vehicle sales dropping like a rock and subtracting from the GDP the oil economy in China is falling down....pay attention the Green economy in China is expanding at a torrid pace CNBC China reports second-quarter GDP growth of 4.7%, missing expectations China's National Bureau of Statistics on Monday said the country's second-quarter GDP rose by 4.7%. That's slower than the 5.3% year on year... . 6 days ago and the backbone of the expanding economy in China ING Think China’s economy is not in a Great Decline but a Great Transition China's near-term challenges and long-term uncertainties are plentiful, but the widespread pessimism towards the Chinese economy and markets... . Mar 27, 2024 Carbon Brief Analysis: Clean energy was top driver of China’s economic growth in 2023 Solar power, along with manufacturing capacity for solar panels, EVs and batteries, were the main focus of China's clean-energy investments... . Jan 25, 2024 China is now investing huge money into developing a new generation of fossil fuel cars for the masses. Great. China is ramping up coal production, great again. Things are looking up. "As of the end of June, the number of new energy vehicles in China reached 24.72 million, of which 18.134 million were pure electric vehicles. In the first half of the year, 4.397 million new energy vehicles were registered, a year-on-year increase of 39.41%." In the first half of 2024 there were 16.8 million new sales of which 4.3 were new vehicle (including hybrids). That is about 25% of the new market. Not anywhere near 60%. Plugin EVs would be about 75% of that, or about 20% of the new market. The last time I looked, 20% is much less than 60%. And of the total vehicle fleet and market only about 4.1%. That means about 96% of the total Chinese vehicle fleet is fossil fuel. And well over 99% of the transport sector is fossil fuel. China is developing a new generation of fossil fuel vehicles to allow the masses to possess personal transportation. The EV revolution is dead in the water before it ever really got going. Edited July 24 by Ecocharger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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