E-car Sales Collapse

[Michael Sanches + 187]

On 2/21/2023 at 3:48 PM, SUZNV said:

I don't know why we cannot cut the CO2 from entertainment & consumption industries Hollywood, games , fashion, marketing, beverage etc and concentrate into the core needs though.   

As long as you don't take away my Soda Stream. 😀 Some CO2 I can't live without!

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

On 2/25/2023 at 7:59 PM, Michael Sanches said:

Hybrids are more sought after and have higher sales figures. In addition, you can make many hybrid batteries for the same amount of rare earth metals and strategic materials as an EV battery.

Since I am retired and only drive about 2000 miles per year, I bought a super low mileage gas car. However, since I am an apartment dweller, I would have bought a hybrid if I was still working and driving 15,000 miles per year. Unless I move into a retirement complex that has chargers, I don't see an EV in my future.

Just one dudes current lifestyle choice.

No hybrids do not have higher sales figures.

California is a good example:

[Ron Wagner + 707]

On 2/25/2023 at 9:59 PM, Michael Sanches said:

Hybrids are more sought after and have higher sales figures. In addition, you can make many hybrid batteries for the same amount of rare earth metals and strategic materials as an EV battery.

Since I am retired and only drive about 2000 miles per year, I bought a super low mileage gas car. However, since I am an apartment dweller, I would have bought a hybrid if I was still working and driving 15,000 miles per year. Unless I move into a retirement complex that has chargers, I don't see an EV in my future.

Just one dudes current lifestyle choice.

Many people are in similar situations:

1. Retired

2. Short commutes but live in an apartment complex or condo with no direct connection possible.

3. Already have ICE vehicles that meet their needs and do not need to pay today's high prices in their remaining years. We have three. Small, medium, and large for various purposes. My three cylinder Mitsubishi Mirage is more economical than any electric vehicle that  I know of. It came with the best warranty in the business. It gets 40 mpg. in town or on long trips. 

4. High prices today make it far more economical to repair vehicles that you might have traded in for a new vehicle. We routinely got rid of old vehicles after ten years when they were at about 140,000 miles. Actually we handed them down to our kids. They never took care of them so they didn't last as long as the could have. 

It will be fascinating to watch what really happens in the vehicle market with all the high prices!

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

16 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

Many people are in similar situations:

1. Retired

2. Short commutes but live in an apartment complex or condo with no direct connection possible.

3. Already have ICE vehicles that meet their needs and do not need to pay today's high prices in their remaining years. We have three. Small, medium, and large for various purposes. My three cylinder Mitsubishi Mirage is more economical than any electric vehicle that  I know of. It came with the best warranty in the business. It gets 40 mpg. in town or on long trips. 

4. High prices today make it far more economical to repair vehicles that you might have traded in for a new vehicle. We routinely got rid of old vehicles after ten years when they were at about 140,000 miles. Actually we handed them down to our kids. They never took care of them so they didn't last as long as the could have. 

It will be fascinating to watch what really happens in the vehicle market with all the high prices!

For older people buying a brand new EV for $50K makes no sense economically at all, as they wont be fit to drive for long or will die.

So they will never get a decent driving return on that investment.

The cruncher for the elderly will be whether a 10 year old second hand EV will have any decent battery life left and what price level that is at.

Personally I think for those elderly folks in and around suburbia why own a vehicle at all? Just get a cab as and when you need one, no initial outlay to buy, no servicing, no fuel, no insurance, no road tax, in fact no other costs at all! Also you get chauffered about so dont have to worry about failing eyesight, slower reaction times etc etc.

I expect to see a massive increase in low cost driverless EV taxis over the next 10 years and there are plenty of firms in their infancy already starting to do this.

The future isnt to actually own a vehicle at all.

Edited March 2, 2023 by Rob Plant

[SUZNV + 1,197]

On 2/25/2023 at 10:05 PM, Michael Sanches said:

As long as you don't take away my Soda Stream. 😀 Some CO2 I can't live without!

Not only CO2 in your soda but the entire CO2 supply chain to produce the soda and delivery them to you. But in the other hand if it gave you more joy than some other more extensive CO2 related. 

10 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

For older people buying a brand new EV for $50K makes no sense economically at all, as they wont be fit to drive for long or will die.

So they will never get a decent driving return on that investment.

The cruncher for the elderly will be whether a 10 year old second hand EV will have any decent battery life left and what price level that is at.

Personally I think for those elderly folks in and around suburbia why own a vehicle at all? Just get a cab as and when you need one, no initial outlay to buy, no servicing, no fuel, no insurance, no road tax, in fact no other costs at all! Also you get chauffered about so dont have to worry about failing eyesight, slower reaction times etc etc.

I expect to see a massive increase in low cost driverless EV taxis over the next 10 years and there are plenty of firms in their infancy already starting to do this.

The future isnt to actually own a vehicle at all.

Most of US suburbs were designed for cars with lots of parking and spread out which make cabs/public transports less  cost and time efficient. And the tradition of freedom moving from stages to stages to search for opportunities, road trip habits will not disappear when they retire. Imagine driving from MN to CA is further than London to Moscow. You can eat, sleep, camp on  your car or even a homeless car/RV style. And most boomers in the US have a lots of understanding about cars and can do most of the maintenance themselves, unlike millennials (like me).They tried to enjoy as much freedom as they can with car in their retirement before moving into group home or nursing home. 

With lots of public debt, high interest rate and less globalization more tension between US, EU and BRICS with aging population everywhere, especially in China, I cannot foreseen a more convenient lifestyle came from tech innovations like the 1990s to 2000s. Especially with electrical parts. Not enough capital for R&D or cheap assemblies labors to boost internet of things. Gov doesn't create wealth and we ate too long into the future. I am expecting high taxation/inflation/stagflation for the adjustment/transition period. Not the first time in history though, simply pay back time, nothing to complain, maybe we even need it. I know lots of people have different views, like Kathie Woods for example. 

[Ron Wagner + 707]

17 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

For older people buying a brand new EV for $50K makes no sense economically at all, as they wont be fit to drive for long or will die.

So they will never get a decent driving return on that investment.

The cruncher for the elderly will be whether a 10 year old second hand EV will have any decent battery life left and what price level that is at.

Personally I think for those elderly folks in and around suburbia why own a vehicle at all? Just get a cab as and when you need one, no initial outlay to buy, no servicing, no fuel, no insurance, no road tax, in fact no other costs at all! Also you get chauffered about so dont have to worry about failing eyesight, slower reaction times etc etc.

I expect to see a massive increase in low cost driverless EV taxis over the next 10 years and there are plenty of firms in their infancy already starting to do this.

The future isnt to actually own a vehicle at all.

A lot of old folks want their full freedom as long as possible, that means driving. Fortunately I have let my younger wife be my chauffeur for about twenty years. I prefer to enjoy the ride, and she prefers to drive. I drive when she is too tired and that is about it. I am especially happy to have her drive through the crowded cities! We drive our big van on long trips, it safer and helps the oil industry. 

[notsonice + 1,255]

On 3/2/2023 at 9:01 PM, Ron Wagner said:

A lot of old folks want their full freedom as long as possible, that means driving. Fortunately I have let my younger wife be my chauffeur for about twenty years. I prefer to enjoy the ride, and she prefers to drive. I drive when she is too tired and that is about it. I am especially happy to have her drive through the crowded cities! We drive our big van on long trips, it safer and helps the oil industry. 

A lot of old folks want their full freedom as long as possible, that means driving. Fortunately I have let my younger wife be my chauffeur for about twenty years. I prefer to enjoy the ride, and she prefers to drive. I drive when she is too tired and that is about it. I am especially happy to have her drive through the crowded cities!????

What does your comments have to do with EV's .....

Your wife can drive an EV if she can drive an ICE vehicle

You can be the passenger in an EV.....they have the same interiors including seats for passengers like ICE vehicles

You can drive an EV through a crowded city.....last I checked, no laws against EV's being driven through large cities....

Old folks can enjoy the same freedoms driving an EV...........Helps the environment....unless you think they have tailpipes on EV's

[Ron Wagner + 707]

The point is that EV's are very expensive compared to existing vehicles. You won't want to admit that I know, but it is indisputable IMHO. This is especially true of elderly people. We usually drive far less over the year. I have even read articles saying that charging an electric vehicle costs more than using gasoline.  We go to a church with an average size congregation that is mostly elderly. The only EV is a nice hybrid Prius. There are many new and newer cars in the lot, no old vehicles. 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

Below this Green debacle is finally being portrayed for what it is and it's disruption on society.

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/gm-is-not-running-on-a-full-tank-16117942

 

GM Is Not Running on a Full Tank

As the American auto icon offers thousands of workers a path to the door, let's see the 'shocking' error of the car and truck maker.

 

ByJIM COLLINS

Edited March 12, 2023 by Eyes Wide Open

[specinho + 470]

On 2/20/2023 at 5:09 PM, Rob Plant said:

Heres one in Reading

Heres one in Chelsea

And another

And another

I could go on Mr Smee but youre too lazy to do any research, please note that all these are different types of charging as numerous different companies are competing to supply these along numerous streets.

Enjoy your travels in and around the London area, looks like youre gonna do a lot of travelling to visit these!

👍

Those none retractable cables are possibly a potential hazard, particularly to cyclists, pedestrians?

Charger is usually specific to each car producer. Like charger for handphone. Interchanging brands or toyota charging at tesla station would cause unusual changes to the charger and the car battery compared to Tesla charging at tesla station.

For example, old iphone charged by Samsung charger would have battery lifespan of a day, compared to iphone charger itself that could last for more than half a week in low usages. Samsung charger could be heated up which prolongs charging time of an old iphone and damaging sustainability of iphone battery.

Not sure if it is the level of  impurity in the components produced by different companies. 

If a test would be done and this scenario is proven true to those charging stations of different producers, then it might be a lot harder to coordinate or popularize in scale.

[specinho + 470]

On 2/20/2023 at 7:37 PM, markslawson said:

Oh sure - Cobalt has a lot of niche uses. the trouble was, and still is, that production has to be ramped up by orders of magnitude for EVs. Now it may not be so bad with another poster pointing out that manufacturers are starting to use batteries that do not have cobalt, and EV sales likely to fall well short of forecasts, but the expected production increase is still matter of concern.   

 

On 2/20/2023 at 11:59 PM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Actually, no.  Cobalt makes absolutely WONDERFUL steels, but Cobalt is so damned expensive because it is rare, no one can economically use it and therefore practically no one does.  Everyone WANTs to use said steels, but can't.  Though frankly its a bit difficult to beat  several of the other high chromium/vanadium steels, but I digress...  Different issues there of course as most of the Chromium in the world is in 2 countries and there is vastly more Cr than Co.  In fact we have more Chromium than Copper, but due to its high difficulty to smelt, very little Chromium is used. 

In fact, we quite a bit more Cobalt in the world than Lithium.  Ability to mine it/refine it on the other hand... is an entirely different story.

In either case, we have no battery that is viable for anything other than a few select people of the world.  Need a battery that does not use lithium, cobalt, nickel, or Chromium or any other semi rare element. 

If mining resources is proven to be less productive than recycling, could there be any chance to recycle those from used sources or relevant discharge?

 

Edited March 12, 2023 by specinho

[specinho + 470]

On 2/18/2023 at 7:25 AM, notsonice said:

https://www.engineering.com/story/why-ev-manufacturers-are-switching-from-nmc-to-lfp-batteries

Why EV Manufacturers Are Switching from NMC to LFP Batteries

 

for the slow ones who post here.....enjoy the read

As long as batteries are involved, one can not run away from the limiting factors like minerals required, facilities required, complementing setup required with possible massive land clearance etc.

A cult kid compiled and suggested a few ways for engineers in the playing field:

a) mechanical fly-wheel inert gas electric car

A toy car dismantled shows that on pulling, the coil would tighten. On release, the car sped off.

If by a turn of key, inert gas would be pressured to turn a fan attached to dynamo in a closed circuit, electricity generated. No battery, mere mechanical action.

b) solar- inert gas turbine hybrid, with separate ignition point. No battery. 

c) recycle waste generated by combustion engine.

If heat pressure is what drives the engine, recycling waste produced would reduce environmental impact, prolong fuel usage per tank etc.

 

Copying, modifying and improving from existing designs might not change much of the unwanted impact and limiting factors. A fish without fins or have more tails would still be limited by the body e.g. energy availability, impact on food chain, sustainability etc.

 

Jumping out of existing options and preset-frame might be a must for a real break through. 

 

EV that requires the minimum from the environment, causes the least negative impact during usages, requires the least complementing built up or land clearance might be a more preferable choice.

 

Play it differently to have different outcomes.....

 

 

 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

On 3/12/2023 at 6:38 AM, specinho said:

Those none retractable cables are possibly a potential hazard, particularly to cyclists, pedestrians?

Charger is usually specific to each car producer. Like charger for handphone. Interchanging brands or toyota charging at tesla station would cause unusual changes to the charger and the car battery compared to Tesla charging at tesla station.

For example, old iphone charged by Samsung charger would have battery lifespan of a day, compared to iphone charger itself that could last for more than half a week in low usages. Samsung charger could be heated up which prolongs charging time of an old iphone and damaging sustainability of iphone battery.

Not sure if it is the level of  impurity in the components produced by different companies. 

If a test would be done and this scenario is proven true to those charging stations of different producers, then it might be a lot harder to coordinate or popularize in scale.

I've already covered the "trip hazard" argument and it is a non argument, I'm not going to re-post it all again, I was replying to Mr.Smee who didnt believe they existed on British streets. He said he would go and see them for himself if they existed, we havent heard from him since so I guess he's still walking the London streets noting them all down. I'd love to see the amazed look on his face.

These are universal charging points for obvious reasons so it doesnt matter what make of car it is. It would be rather stupid if they werent wouldnt it! There are no "unusual changes to the charger" as you say nor the battery in any make of vehicle. These are overnight chargers not super fast ones.

[markslawson + 1,058]

On 3/12/2023 at 5:50 PM, specinho said:

f mining resources is proven to be less productive than recycling, could there be any chance to recycle those from used sources or relevant discharge?

If recycling is cheaper than manufacturing then sure. At the moment Cobalt is about $US34,000 a tonne, and that's after a major decline in price from a high of above $80,000 in April of last year. The decline is mostly due to production catching up with demand. Recycling would then seem to be attractive but its only really previously been used in niche applications so finding enough even for a tonne would be hard, and separating the mineral from other components even harder. All that said maybe the batteries can be set up so that the cobalt can be extracted easily. Not sure it would be enough but its a thought.. 

[specinho + 470]

4 hours ago, markslawson said:

If recycling is cheaper than manufacturing then sure. At the moment Cobalt is about $US34,000 a tonne, and that's after a major decline in price from a high of above $80,000 in April of last year. The decline is mostly due to production catching up with demand. Recycling would then seem to be attractive but its only really previously been used in niche applications so finding enough even for a tonne would be hard, and separating the mineral from other components even harder. All that said maybe the batteries can be set up so that the cobalt can be extracted easily. Not sure it would be enough but its a thought.. 

The best material is usually something people discarded and available at no or low cost. For example, pioneers used lead (most probably a by-product of some processes) in a chemical cell.

Or, something found in abundant, available easily at low or no cost. E.g. Aluminium, silicate, etc.

When we limit ourselves with existing limited resources, for readied working units, purchased at high prices, we are bound to 

a) produce lower quality of thing due to limitation of material.

b) produce less affordable things

c) produce more waste e.g. due to low turn over rate for goods below standard, more damage to the environment e.g. hasty harvest / production without proper planning etc.

 

Not sure how far other things, i.e. free/ abundant material, mechanical cell, have been explored? 

Edited March 14, 2023 by specinho

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

On 2/7/2023 at 11:55 PM, markslawson said:

The story below, which appeared in Clean Energy Wire, February 6, is typical of EV sales in general. Once the subsidies are withdrawn, buyers lose interest.

The title of this thread is EV car sales collapse. 

Above Mark states that once subsidies are withdrawn buyers lose interest. This just hasnt happened in the UK at all, in fact EV sales continue to increase at a faster rate despite subsidies being removed in June 2022.

Government pulls plug on its remaining UK electric car subsidies

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/14/government-pulls-plug-on-its-remaining-uk-electric-car-subsidies

The article below states this "EVs enjoyed a continual growth streak throughout 2022. In January 2022, 14,433 EVs were registered, representing 12.5% market share. By the summer this had increased to 22,737 for June, a 16.1% slice of the market. By December 2022, this had significantly increased to 42,284 new EV registrations - a massive 32.9% market share."

https://heycar.co.uk/blog/electric-cars-statistics-and-projections

That sort of disproves the whole thread for me as this is reality not "projections"

I do think the US market will take a lot longer due to more range issues due to the vastness of land mass and a general unwillingness to embrace this new technology. It will happen though as tech improves battery performance.

[Ron Wagner + 707]

I think that electric vehicles, including hybrids, will do fine as long as there are enough upper middle class people who can afford them and have plenty of charging stations or can charge at home. Well to do people often want to "keep up with the Jones's" or show off their new car. To gain a large share of the market, in America, EV manufacturers will have to offer budget friendly cars to compete with all of the ICE vehicles that have a price that is about half of the EV's. 

The technology improvements of Tesla seem very impressive to me, and they seem to lead the field IMHO. They are trying to work around lithium and other expensive metals. New modern motor designs, airless tires, clear aluminum windows that are bulletproof, etc. 

[Ron Wagner + 707]

On 3/2/2023 at 4:02 PM, SUZNV said:

Not only CO2 in your soda but the entire CO2 supply chain to produce the soda and delivery them to you. But in the other hand if it gave you more joy than some other more extensive CO2 related. 

Most of US suburbs were designed for cars with lots of parking and spread out which make cabs/public transports less  cost and time efficient. And the tradition of freedom moving from stages to stages to search for opportunities, road trip habits will not disappear when they retire. Imagine driving from MN to CA is further than London to Moscow. You can eat, sleep, camp on  your car or even a homeless car/RV style. And most boomers in the US have a lots of understanding about cars and can do most of the maintenance themselves, unlike millennials (like me).They tried to enjoy as much freedom as they can with car in their retirement before moving into group home or nursing home. 

With lots of public debt, high interest rate and less globalization more tension between US, EU and BRICS with aging population everywhere, especially in China, I cannot foreseen a more convenient lifestyle came from tech innovations like the 1990s to 2000s. Especially with electrical parts. Not enough capital for R&D or cheap assemblies labors to boost internet of things. Gov doesn't create wealth and we ate too long into the future. I am expecting high taxation/inflation/stagflation for the adjustment/transition period. Not the first time in history though, simply pay back time, nothing to complain, maybe we even need it. I know lots of people have different views, like Kathie Woods for example. 

I think you are too optimistic about driverless taxis etc. I remember thinking how monorails would be over all the major streets in Los Angeles and around the country. I was 15 at the time, influenced by Disneyland. In the thirties they dreamed of flying cars just as they do now. Now law enforcement has become a major problem on public transit in some areas. 

[markslawson + 1,058]

21 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Above Mark states that once subsidies are withdrawn buyers lose interest. This just hasnt happened in the UK at all, in fact EV sales continue to increase at a faster rate despite subsidies being removed in June 2022.

I dealt with that in another post.. its a fair point but lots of subsidies/advantages remain including, and crucially, exemption from the tax for driving anything other than an EV in London, which is more than 12 UK pounds a day. No wonder sales didn't fall. Surprising they manage to keep any in the show room..   

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

3 hours ago, markslawson said:

I dealt with that in another post.. its a fair point but lots of subsidies/advantages remain including, and crucially, exemption from the tax for driving anything other than an EV in London, which is more than 12 UK pounds a day. No wonder sales didn't fall. Surprising they manage to keep any in the show room..   

Mark nobody really drives in the centre of London (where the charge exists) these days its quicker and easier to get the tube/bus. Many Londoners dont own a vehicle at all due to the exhorbitant costs to park said vehicle as many houses have no parking/garage and street parking is extremely difficult.

[markslawson + 1,058]

9 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Mark nobody really drives in the centre of London (where the charge exists) these days its quicker and easier to get the tube/bus. Many Londoners dont own a vehicle at all due to the exhorbitant costs to park said vehicle as many houses have no parking/garage and street parking is extremely difficult.

actually it is, or will be, a huge area of London, not just the centre. In 2023 its to be extended massively. Originally it covered just the congestion charge area which is what you might be thinking of. There were other incentives. As I said originally, and as has been shown time and again, you need incentives to sell EVs. No incentives and sales collapse. You still get some sales, mind you, just not enough to displace petrol cars. You may want to look at Norway, as a case study, that offers huge incentives to get about EVs comprising 80 per cent plus of new car sales, and see the political struggles they have in trying to reduce the incentives. Anyway, leave it with you. Time to move on from this point.    

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

4 hours ago, markslawson said:

actually it is, or will be, a huge area of London, not just the centre. In 2023 its to be extended massively

Sounds nice, but currently zero self driving cars can be used in snow.  Yes, plenty of Tesla's showing they can partially do it.  Key term, partially.  So, a well mapped city that never gets snow... self driving taxi's?  Yes.  London who gets snow?(I know rarely)  No.  Who knows about flooding conditions. 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

8 hours ago, markslawson said:

actually it is, or will be, a huge area of London, not just the centre. In 2023 its to be extended massively. Originally it covered just the congestion charge area which is what you might be thinking of. There were other incentives. As I said originally, and as has been shown time and again, you need incentives to sell EVs. No incentives and sales collapse. You still get some sales, mind you, just not enough to displace petrol cars. You may want to look at Norway, as a case study, that offers huge incentives to get about EVs comprising 80 per cent plus of new car sales, and see the political struggles they have in trying to reduce the incentives. Anyway, leave it with you. Time to move on from this point.    

Mark EV sales across the country which is 70 million people is dramatically increasing. There are congestion charges in Birmingham and Manchester also but if you take the populations that live and work in these areas its still a fraction of the total population. I dont think your point is valid at all sorry, if it was areas that dont have congestion charges wouldnt have EV's and trust me theyre everywhere now compared to 5 years ago. Any other British person would confirm this.

I do agree that governments such as Norways have forced people to buy EV's and now they have transitioned will look to get that tax back ASAP.

Edited March 17, 2023 by Rob Plant

[markslawson + 1,058]

On 3/17/2023 at 4:23 PM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Sounds nice, but currently zero self driving cars can be used in snow.  Yes, plenty of Tesla's showing they can partially do it.  Key term, partially.  So, a well mapped city that never gets snow... self driving taxi's?  Yes.  London who gets snow?(I know rarely)  No.  Who knows about flooding conditions. 

Ummmm - okay. I don't really get your point but no matter, let's leave it at that and thank you for the comment.. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

1 minute ago, markslawson said:

Ummmm - okay. I don't really get your point but no matter, let's leave it at that and thank you for the comment.. 

Do you want taxi's all year round or not?  There won't be thousands of human taxi drivers taking over when it snows a bit if self driving cars are a thing.  There won't be taxi drivers at all.  So, until this gets fixed, a little snow would strand everyone in place.