shaleprofile + 243 February 10, 2023 This article contains still images from the interactive dashboards available in the original blog post. To follow the instructions in this article, please use the interactive dashboards. Furthermore, they allow you to uncover other insights as well. Visit the blog to explore the full interactive dashboard These interactive presentations contain the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 10,584 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing from 2010 onward, through March. Total production Natural gas production in Pennsylvania was 20.2 Bcf/d in November (Hz. wells only), 1 Bcf/d below the output 12 months earlier. After 10 years of rapid production growth, natural gas production has stagnated since early 2021. In this post, we’ll analyze some of the factors behind this. Drilling Activity As of last week, 22 rigs were drilling horizontal wells in Pennsylvania (according to Baker Hughes). Eleven years earlier there were over a 100 rigs, despite natural gas prices at relatively high levels in the past year: Horizontal rig count in Pennsylvania (left hand side) and natural gas prices (right hand side) In this overview, you can see how the horizontal rig count (in blue) has fallen since 2011, with an uptick in activity at the beginning of 2022. Natural gas prices (HH) have fallen recently, after surging a year ago. Well productivity In the following overview, you can find another reason behind the stagnation of hydrocarbon production in Pennsylvania: Well productivity over time (top chart) and completion designs (bottom 2 charts) in Pennsylvania In the top chart, you can see how well productivity, as measured by the average cumulative gas recovered in the first 6 months has trended over time. The horizontal wells that came online in 2011 recovered about 0.5 Bcf of natural gas during the first 6 months, while those beginning in Q2 of 2021 did about 5 times that (2.6 Bcf). However, the trend in the last 2.5 years does appear to be falling, despite long lateral lengths (2nd chart) and high proppant loadings (bottom chart). The 148 horizontal wells that were completed in Q2 of last year were frac’ed with 23 million pounds each, compared with an average of 4 million pounds for wells completed in 2022. Operator performance However, not all operators are equally affected by declining productivity. In the next graph you’ll find how well productivity of the top 5 operators has changed over the last decade: Well productivity of the top 5 natural gas producers in Pennsylvania In the figure above you can find the performance of the top 5 operators in the past decade, as measured by the same metric (average cumulative gas recovered in the first 6 months). Especially Chesapeake has seen a rapid decline in average output in the past 2 years, although it is still just in the lead, above EQT, which has seen almost continuous increases in productivity. Top operators In the final tab (“Top operators”), the output and well locations of the top-10 natural gas producers in Pennsylvania are displayed. You’ll find here that EQT’s overall production has still fallen, despite the growing productivity as we just saw, as it completed far fewer wells; 33 through November 2022, vs 129 in the first 11 months of 2020. Finally Production data is subject to revisions. Sources For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight: https://bit.ly/3EkD8p9 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,266 DM February 21, 2023 (edited) On 2/10/2023 at 6:26 AM, shaleprofile said: This article contains still images from the interactive dashboards available in the original blog post. To follow the instructions in this article, please use the interactive dashboards. Furthermore, they allow you to uncover other insights as well. Visit the blog to explore the full interactive dashboard These interactive presentations contain the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 10,584 horizontal wells in Pennsylvania that started producing from 2010 onward, through March. Total production Natural gas production in Pennsylvania was 20.2 Bcf/d in November (Hz. wells only), 1 Bcf/d below the output 12 months earlier. After 10 years of rapid production growth, natural gas production has stagnated since early 2021. In this post, we’ll analyze some of the factors behind this. Drilling Activity As of last week, 22 rigs were drilling horizontal wells in Pennsylvania (according to Baker Hughes). Eleven years earlier there were over a 100 rigs, despite natural gas prices at relatively high levels in the past year: Horizontal rig count in Pennsylvania (left hand side) and natural gas prices (right hand side) In this overview, you can see how the horizontal rig count (in blue) has fallen since 2011, with an uptick in activity at the beginning of 2022. Natural gas prices (HH) have fallen recently, after surging a year ago. Well productivity In the following overview, you can find another reason behind the stagnation of hydrocarbon production in Pennsylvania: Well productivity over time (top chart) and completion designs (bottom 2 charts) in Pennsylvania In the top chart, you can see how well productivity, as measured by the average cumulative gas recovered in the first 6 months has trended over time. The horizontal wells that came online in 2011 recovered about 0.5 Bcf of natural gas during the first 6 months, while those beginning in Q2 of 2021 did about 5 times that (2.6 Bcf). However, the trend in the last 2.5 years does appear to be falling, despite long lateral lengths (2nd chart) and high proppant loadings (bottom chart). The 148 horizontal wells that were completed in Q2 of last year were frac’ed with 23 million pounds each, compared with an average of 4 million pounds for wells completed in 2022. Operator performance However, not all operators are equally affected by declining productivity. In the next graph you’ll find how well productivity of the top 5 operators has changed over the last decade: Well productivity of the top 5 natural gas producers in Pennsylvania In the figure above you can find the performance of the top 5 operators in the past decade, as measured by the same metric (average cumulative gas recovered in the first 6 months). Especially Chesapeake has seen a rapid decline in average output in the past 2 years, although it is still just in the lead, above EQT, which has seen almost continuous increases in productivity. Top operators In the final tab (“Top operators”), the output and well locations of the top-10 natural gas producers in Pennsylvania are displayed. You’ll find here that EQT’s overall production has still fallen, despite the growing productivity as we just saw, as it completed far fewer wells; 33 through November 2022, vs 129 in the first 11 months of 2020. Finally Production data is subject to revisions. Sources For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources: Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection FracFocus.org Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight: https://bit.ly/3EkD8p9 crashing Nat Gas at the Henry Hub will upend drilling business fast the last US energy forecast is so far off track .....today Henry Hub at $2.07 . and in the middle of winter to boot with LNG exports at an all time high Coal is the biggest loser..............as Cheap Nat gas replaces coal...... here is the Jan 18the forecast............with a $5 1st quarter price call..........not even close https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=55219 January 18, 2023 In our January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we forecast the natural gas spot price at the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub will average $4.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2023, more than $1.50/MMBtu lower than the 2022 average. We expect prices to stay nearly the same in 2024 as dry natural gas production continues to grow in the United States and outpaces domestic natural gas demand and exports for most of the year. We forecast the Henry Hub price will average close to $5.00/MMBtu in the first quarter of 2023; Edited February 21, 2023 by notsonice Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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