Hellali + 1 MH September 30, 2018 WTI = $75 Brent = $82USD Spread = $6 USD 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Er_Varun + 1 VS September 30, 2018 WTI - $74.20 BRENT- $82.37 SPREAD- $72.02 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
åke munkhammar + 1 September 30, 2018 My prediction for Brent is 106,50 and for wti is 90,5. Hence the difference is 16$! All the best, Åke Munkhammar 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jayvitten + 1 jv September 30, 2018 WTI = $64.77 Brent = $76.97 Spread = $12.20 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chacko Varghese + 1 September 30, 2018 WTI: 72.54$/b Brent: 77.4$/b Spread: 4.86$ 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Veli + 1 SD September 30, 2018 1) 4 wk average WTI spot price as of December 31, 2018 =$ 78.91 / bbl 2) 4 wk average Brent spot price as of December 31, 2018 = $ 85.22 / bbl 3) 4 wk average spread between WTI/Brent as of December 31, 2018 = $ 6.31 Utilizing the methodology I have developed over years for financial analysis gave me above results. Best Veli 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Craig Zimber + 1 September 30, 2018 1) 4 wk average WTI spot price as of December 31, 2018 =$ 77.61 / bbl 2) 4 wk average Brent spot price as of December 31, 2018 = $ 85.28 / bbl 3) 4 wk average spread between WTI/Brent as of December 31, 2018 = $ 7.44 The average off all previous predictions minus some careless ones. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
kabuki warrior + 1 BD October 1, 2018 (edited) Come December 31st, 2018. The four-week average of price of oil are going to be: WTI = $86.23 Brent = $92.11 Spread = $5.88 Why? Demand data will finally be honestly reported Production bottlenecks and lagging supply will combine to drive the upward tragectory of pricing Edited October 1, 2018 by kabuki warrior 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
detxebe 0 DE October 1, 2018 My main assumptions are that no big event will happen until end of December and that we can aim at making a prediction through reversion to the price-increasing baseline seen in the last 2-3 years. I validate/simulate mean reversion through an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process fitted with respect to history from the last 31 months with heavier weights for recent history. Based on all this, my predictions are: 1) 4 wk average WTI spot price as of December 31, 2018 : $69.32 USD 2) 4 wk average Brent spot price as of December 31, 2018 : $76.60 USD 3) 4 wk average spread between WTI/Brent as of December 31, 2018 : $ 7.28 USD These values, as one may expect, are close to the predictions given by the baseline. I computed and plotted also the (~normal) cumulative distribution functions associated with all the assumptions above (see figure attached). Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jack b :-) 0 JB October 1, 2018 WTI = $63.75 Brent = $68.10 Spread = $4.35 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rodent + 1,424 October 6, 2018 Well everybody, thanks for your entries! We had 249 valid entries. WTI low $51.35 (Tom McKernan) WTI High $903.02 (Okoil) Brent low $54.00 (YXK) Brent high $908.00 (Okoil) Spread low $2.00 (Peat) Spread high $72.02 (Er_Varun) I had lots of fun compiling the results and reading the rationale about why you chose the numbers that you chose. So.... who's excited for your hard-won barrel of slime? I can hardly wait until January to find out who was the closest! price prediction.xlsx 3 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rodent + 1,424 January 8, 2019 TUNE IN TOMORROW!!!! THIS IS WHAT YOU'VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR! The Great Oil Price Prediction Challenge of 2018 is coming to a close. Data will be released tomorrow from the EIA and we will post our winners right here! Check back soon to see who the winners are! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rodent + 1,424 January 18, 2019 245 entries. 3 winners. ARE YOU READY TO HEAR WHO THE WINNERS ARE FOR OILPRICE'S 2018 GREAT OIL PRICE CHALLENGE? The 4 wk average WTI spot price, according to the EIA, $49.52 The 4 wk average Brent spot prices, $57.36 Spread, 4 week average $7.84 Introducing our winner for the WTI 4 week average: 1st place TOM McKERNAN @Tom Mckernan YAY, Tom! Tom guessed $51.35. runner up: PEAT @Peat. Introducing our winner for the Brent 4 week average: 1ST PLACE: TOM McKERNAN @Tom Mckernan. YAY AGAIN! Tom guessed $57.20 runner up: ARIZONA LUMBERMAN @Arizona Lumberman Introducing our winner for the 4 week average spread: MATEJ @Matej runners up: Outlaw Jackie, Yu Jey @Outlaw Jackie @Yu Jey 1st place winner in each category wins a full year of Oil Price’s premium service, Oil Insider (a $997 value), as well as Oil Price’s Energy Market Intelligence, which will be delivered to you every week. Runners up will win a mini barrel of black oozy slime. Congratulations everybody! I will contact you via private message to work out the details of your loot! 2 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Patty 0 PW January 23, 2019 Patty USA Stock Trading Company 9 No Expert Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Patty 0 PW January 23, 2019 I think that the time the mid-west starts planting crops Oil will surge to around $70 then in July (vacation time) it will go to $80 Now, if Trump is insistent on keeping oil prices down, What is Trump going to do? Release the Oil reserves? Democrats will fight that. So, how is Trump going to keep oil prices down? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
patrick nalletamby + 4 April 2, 2019 If you are trying to predict the future - you are not a serious trader. To make money trading you do not need to forecast the future. You have to extract information form the market and find out whether bulls or bears are in control. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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