Rodent

THE GREAT OIL PRICE PREDICTION CHALLENGE OF 2018

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Just now, STH/CA said:

Come December 31st, 2018. The four-week average of price of oil are going to be:

WTI = $70

Brent = $75 USD

Spread = $5 USD

Since I'm making  predictions, I will add these to enhance the back drop of my view:
The WILD US-China Tariff war will drag the global economy down

 

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WTI  $65

Brent  $70

Spread  $5

And here's my general opinion from earlier this year.  And a few more

Note that my numbers above were not actually meant to be predictions, they are the oil priced I hoped for, as a general balance between oil producers and oil consumers.

But since this is a contest, I'm curious how my hoped for oil prices above will  compare with actual oil prices at the end of this year.

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(edited)

Come December 31st, 2018. The four-week average of price of oil are going to be:

WTI = $68.50

Brent = $73.80 USD

Spread = $5.30 USD

India will continue to ask for waivers for Iran oil or slow down on purchases

China USA war will deepen

High cost of oil will cause global slowdown in Asia excluding china (mabye) (less purchases of extra storage supplies)

Venezuela got 5b from china and might be able to rein in their losses

Russia and Non opec might continue to produce more

Some opec might argue for larger pie from 1Mb

 

Edited by The Lancer
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Come December 31st, 2018. The four-week average of price of oil are going to be:

WTI = $77.47USD

Brent = $86.92 USD

Spread = $9.45

Horizon_terminal.gif

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WTI = $77

Brent = $84 USD

Spread = $7 USD

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WTI = US$60

Brent =  US$65

Spread = US$5

I'm unable to comment why

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WTI = 79.37

Brent = 88.45

Spread = 9.08

I believe supplies will tighten more, production will not keep up with demand, driving prices to $80 on WTI with some sideways/range bound near $80.

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13 hours ago, Rodent said:

 4 wk average WTI spot price as of December 31, 2018

WTI - $85.00

BRENT -$92.00

SPREAD-$7.00

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(edited)

Brent $85.87

WTI $74.12

Premium $11.65

Worldwide shortages will push up the Brent price a little  form here, whilst a landlocked and oversupplied WTI will increase the Brent premium. 

edited to clarify... hope it doesn't disqualify me.. ;-))

Edited by steve73
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WTI: $81.5/bbl

Brent: $95/bbl

Spread: 13.5$/bbl

Risks:

Higher interest rates than expected will reduce the spread by increasing WTI prices

Geopolitic risk of even hotter wars in the middle east could bring Brent in triple digit territory.

Comment:

Healthiest for all would be an oil price around $140 which would give oil the value it deserves (about the price of non-organic milk) and replace it where cost effective replacement is possible. And the gas price should be decoupled from the oil price. That would be best for long term energy and chemical feedstock security. Oh, and derivatives/hedging should be illegal and you must take delivery for every purchased bbl..... That would allow market forces to regulate supply and demand.

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WTI = 95

Brent= 102

Spread = 7 bucks

Hoping Canada will also built those damn bamboo pipeline..:))

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Come December 31st, 2018. The four-week average of price of oil are going to be:

WTI = $89 USD

Brent = $97 USD

Spread = $7.1 USD

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WTI - 79.00

BRENT - 83.00

Spread - 4.00

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Brent = $55

WTI = $53

Spread = $2

A much stronger USD.

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WTI = $71

BRENT = $77

SPREAD = $6

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(edited)

HELLO TRADERS,

ACCORDING TO SEASONALITY METHOD, seasonanalysiskm.blogspot.gr ,  THE DECEMBER ESTIMATIONS ARE

WTI= 70.45

BRENT= 76.42

SPREAD= 5.97

 

Edited by MAIK
Join The Oilprice Challenge
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wti=$82.30                                                                                                                                                                                                                   brent$87.40                                                                                                                                                                                                                spread=$5.10

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@Lordandy - placing your comment within this thread! 

Come December 31st, 2018. The four-week average of price of oil are going to be:

WTI = $76.72

Brent = $86.69 USD

Spread = $9.9 USD


This is based on the price action

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WTI = 150.00

Brent = 175.00

Spread = 25

This is based on guessing like everyone else and is a joke

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27 minutes ago, Jesse Man said:

WTI = 150.00

Brent = 175.00

Spread = 25

This is based on guessing like everyone else and is a joke

I hope you win.

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WTI - $69.20

Brent - $74.45

Spread - $5.25

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