THE GREAT OIL PRICE PREDICTION CHALLENGE OF 2018

[Jovito Catungal + 6]

 By the end of this year on December 31st, 2018. My prediction will be:

WTI = $ 82.50 USD

Brent = $86.30 USD

Spread = $3.80 USD

The reasons would be numerous such as supply and demands, geopolitical and technical such as outages..

[Chizane + 1]

By end of oct oil price will touch $85 

[SUBIR MOHANTA + 5]

WTI = $ 73.00 / bbl

BRENT = $ 78.00 / bbl

Spread = $ 5 / bbl

[AHMED HAITHM MOHAMMED + 1]

Come December 31st, 2018. The four-week average of price of oil are going to be:

WTI = $84 USD

Brent = $92 USD

Spread = $7 USD

[Mr. Best + 2]

WTI= 76.3

BRENT = 84.5

SPREAD = 5.3

[QA/QC_aadi_E&I + 1]

Adeel Akhtar QA/QC E&I having 15+ years of experience in the field.

Coming Dec'18 the prices are going to be as below:

WTI = $74

Brent = $85

Spread = $7

 

[Jenny Considine + 2]

WTI     $71.42

Brent   $80.90

Spread $9.48

A combination of technical and fundamental analysis

 

[jaycee + 348]

So much newsflow on oil prices and mostly  unquantifiable makes predicting the oil price in a few months more of a guess than normal.  I am going to assume the good news, if you work in the oil industry, will outweigh the bad and prices will rise in the short term until we find out if OPEC can cover the losses of Iran and Venezuela. Longer term Trump's trade wars, strong $ and a no deal Brexit will slow world growth and possibly lead to a worldwide recession then even maybe a depression depending on how good or bad Trump's carers are in hiding the documents he wants to sign.

1)   4 wk average WTI spot price as of December 31, 2018                        $78.01

2)   4 wk average Brent spot price as of December 31, 2018                      $84.95

3)   4 wk average spread between WTI/Brent as of December 31, 2018       $6.94

[karrar + 1]

I think oil prices will not exceed more than 81 $ for Brent crude 

WTI---- $71

BRENT ----$77

Spread = $6 USD

As Iraq citizen hope the prices step over 90$  but the news doesn't cite that 
 

[RAJNI SHAH + 1]

PRICE PREDICTED ON 31ST DECEMBER 2018

WTI  =  $66

BRENT  =  $74

 

USAGE OF OIL WILL DECREASE AS PRICE RISES PLUS IT IS PRICED IN DOLLARS SO IT BECOMES MORE

EXPENSIVE FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IF DOLLAR GETS STRONGER.

THE CHINA-US TARIFF WAR WILL SLOW DOWN GLOBAL ECONOMY.

IRAN MAY  FIND A WAY OF EXPORTING OIL .

 

Edited September 25, 2018 by RAJNI SHAH
SPREAD $8

[MaxNix + 12]

4 wk avg WTI - 71.17

4 wk avg Brent - 77.08

avg spread 6.00

[Amir Navabi, P.Eng., PMP + 3]

WTI - 90.60

Brent - 96.90

Spread - 6.30

[Outlaw Jackie + 78]

Well I have learned that predicting price trends can be very complicated, but when you add a specific date, that's when it really gets tricky. 

I expect a correction, as I see the headwinds facing O&G from EV and solar to be noteworthy.  I also expect a 'change' depending on the outcome of midterm elections.  Not sure what that will be though.  

 

[Doyle Johnson + 14]

WTI   $70.00

Brent  $80.00

Spread $10.00

[Nick de Blocq + 4]

Brent    $83.40

WTI     $77.90

Spread     $5.50

[Rodent + 1,424]

19 hours ago, Brandon Cavallaro said:

p.s. Do people get disqualified if their spread isn't equal to Brent-WTI ? Maybe that's the tiebreaker ! 

Great question!

No. In fact, having a spread that differs from the forecasted WTI and Brent is kind of like hedging your bets. If your WTI and Brent pan out to be incorrect, your spread might still be okay. As they are three distinct categories, your guesses can be independent of the other. 

The only thing you are giving up by having a spread that differs from your WTI/Brent guesses is that you obviously will not be winning all three categories.

 

[UnclePhat + 3]

Dec 31,2018 four week average

Wti- 79.00

Brent-84.00

Spread-5.00

[José Dos Santos + 2]

WTI - $78

 

Brent - $84

 

Spread - $6

[Johnny Mac + 6]

As of December 31, 2018

4 wk average WTI        $77.25

4 wk average BRENT   $85.73

4 wk average SPREAD $8.48

Contributing factors:

. higher oil price upward trend will continue into 2019

. some resolution of trade wars with China/EU will be resolved

. World GDP growth will continue at moderate pace supporting oil demand

. political relaxation of requests for lower oil prices after the November midterms

. lack of heavy Capex over last several years by majors will help restrain supply

. Saudi's and Russia will use additional capacity sparingly...market will recognize their declining ability to quickly lower oil prices 

. large industrial oil users and hedge funds will increase hedging activity on buy side

. some panic buying and "get on the band wagon" psychology will support higher prices

. some suppliers may get overly greedy and buy oil as "margin enhancement" instead of selling as a supply hedge

[Phil Rutledge + 1]

81.22

[Copperhead + 1]

WTI - 104.00

Brent - 115.00

Spread - 11.00

[PeterfromCalgary + 60]

WTI = $77 USD

Brent = $87 USD

Spread = $10 USD

[Sajumon MP + 4]

WTI: $71

Brent: $80

Spread: $9

[esj + 3]

WTI = 65.50

Brent = 73.50

Spread = 8

[Rumzi + 2]

WTI = $ 74

Brent = $ 82

Spread = $ 5.2