So oil touched $80! (WTI break $71 twice). What does the future hold?

[ATK + 355]

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1M7229

Saudi Arabia just got two oil fields online that will increase output by at least 300,000 barrels a day.

I don't expect the market to react at all because of... IRANIAN SANCTIONS 

[ATK + 355]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1M712J

India still going to buy from Iran, but again it doesn't matter because of.... IRANIAN SANCTIONS 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Some news out of The Times of India:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/oil-seen-at-100-india-may-cut-down-imports/articleshow/65942580.cms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/indian-oil-refiner-part-owned-by-iranian-company-cancels-iran-oil-imports/articleshow/65890782.cms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/indias-iran-oil-purchases-to-fade-ahead-of-us-sanctions/articleshow/65807940.cms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/life-style/beauty/here-are-the-five-benefits-of-oiling-your-hair/articleshow/65954077.cms

15 minutes ago, ATK said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1M712J

India still going to buy from Iran, but again it doesn't matter because of.... IRANIAN SANCTIONS 

The article above only quotes an Iranian official who says he talked to an Indian official, but there was no statement at all from any Indian official.  Strange that.

[Osama + 248]

25 minutes ago, ATK said:

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1M7229

Saudi Arabia just got two oil fields online that will increase output by at least 300,000 barrels a day.

I don't expect the market to react at all because of... IRANIAN SANCTIONS 

Now this really made me laugh !! I might start getting dreams of ....IRANIAN SANCTIONS.

[Osama + 248]

1 minute ago, Dan Warnick said:

Some news out of The Times of India:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/oil-seen-at-100-india-may-cut-down-imports/articleshow/65942580.cms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/indian-oil-refiner-part-owned-by-iranian-company-cancels-iran-oil-imports/articleshow/65890782.cms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/indias-iran-oil-purchases-to-fade-ahead-of-us-sanctions/articleshow/65807940.cms

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/life-style/beauty/here-are-the-five-benefits-of-oiling-your-hair/articleshow/65954077.cms

The article above only quotes an Iranian official who says he talked to an Indian official, but there was no statement at all from any Indian official.  Strange that.

India has calculated its budget at $65 bbl oil. 

 

If, as the articles state, this happens...then the effect of iranian sanctions might really turn into IRANIAN SANCTIONS!

 

I am wondering how does the proposalby Macron at UNGA will work out. If EU is supporting JCPOA we should see something tangible out of this support as well? 

[ATK + 355]

Search engines buried that article about Saudi Arabia increasing production by 300,000 barrels a day, guess it doesn't fit in the current news cycle 

[ATK + 355]

3 hours ago, Osama said:

India has calculated its budget at $65 bbl oil. 

 

If, as the articles state, this happens...then the effect of iranian sanctions might really turn into IRANIAN SANCTIONS!

 

I am wondering how does the proposalby Macron at UNGA will work out. If EU is supporting JCPOA we should see something tangible out of this support as well? 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4208695-high-can-oil-prices-rise

Nice article man! Props!

Edited September 27, 2018 by ATK

[Osama + 248]

7 hours ago, ATK said:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4208695-high-can-oil-prices-rise

Nice article man! Props!

Thank you!

[Osama + 248]

How High Can Oil Prices Rise---https://seekingalpha.com/article/4208695-high-can-oil-prices-rise

Summary:

1. $85 bbl. for Brent (BZ) and $75 bbl. for WTI (CL) can be considered price ceilings.
2. The effects of Iranian sanctions will depend upon the response of Iran. So far, it has not been dramatic.
3. Trump’s trade actions will continue weighing down on prices.

My latest for Seeking Alpha----There-- I just floated a bearish asteroid in this bullish-verse.

[Osama + 248]

This just in: WTI pierces through $73. 

@ATK.... new week about to start...we needed new excitement...right?

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

12 hours ago, Osama said:

How High Can Oil Prices Rise---https://seekingalpha.com/article/4208695-high-can-oil-prices-rise

Summary:

1. $85 bbl. for Brent (BZ) and $75 bbl. for WTI (CL) can be considered price ceilings.
2. The effects of Iranian sanctions will depend upon the response of Iran. So far, it has not been dramatic.
3. Trump’s trade actions will continue weighing down on prices.

My latest for Seeking Alpha----There-- I just floated a bearish asteroid in this bullish-verse.

The effects of Iranian sanctions will depend on some of these factors

1) the actions of the EU

2) Actions of buyers of Iranian crude and condensate ( Asian buyers-Japan, South Korea have already stopped buying all shipments; India is to show their direction-but they have been waiting for a signal from the US for an exemption). BTW Saudi's have indicated that they can and will replace sanctioned Iranian condensate barrels with their Arabian Extra Light Crude or a condensate.

3) Another major Asian buyer, China's action on buying Iranian Crude

4) How  far will the US go to enforce the sanctions and when.

5) Iran's action and success in trying to "swap" their crude with another producer (Russia and CIS countries-Azerbaijan etc)

This is an interesting editorial:

http://www.arabnews.com/node/1300306/business-economy

[ATK + 355]

2 hours ago, Osama said:

This just in: WTI pierces through $73. 

@ATK.... new week about to start...we needed new excitement...right?

Lol this shit is literally crazy, demand destruction here we come!

[Osama + 248]

38 minutes ago, ATK said:

Lol this shit is literally crazy, demand destruction here we come!

I am facing quite a criticism for writing that oil might come down. 

 

As soon as the inventories start building up...see how the bullish-verse comes apart.

[oilfutures + 39]

Thanks Osma, from a technical perspective we are heading towards overbought area.  However, the moving averages clearly have price in an uptrend.  Now we just need something fundamentally shake things down

[Osama + 248]

19 minutes ago, oilfutures said:

Thanks Osma, from a technical perspective we are heading towards overbought area.  However, the moving averages clearly have price in an uptrend.  Now we just need something fundamentally shake things down

Which can be inventory build ups/OPEC+ coming to the rescue/Trade war/ what else?

[Keven Tan + 85]

1 hour ago, Osama said:

Which can be inventory build ups/OPEC+ coming to the rescue/Trade war/ what else?

Hi Osama

I have a question regarding the mid-election if you would be able to advise. 

I know Iran was proved not violating nuclear regulations, so the sanction was only enforced by Trump with his administrators. If the democratic takes over the congress in November, would Iran sanction be possibly released since high oil price is killing people and hurts economy?

 

[Tom Kirkman + 8,860]

3 hours ago, Osama said:

I am facing quite a criticism for writing that oil might come down. 

Stand your ground.

Evaluate information, then come up with your own, independent opinion supported by facts.

If facts change, it behooves one to consider changing one's opinion based on updated facts.

Others disagree? So what.  There will always be others who disagree, no matter what your opinion is.

So ...  to reiterate:

Stand your ground.

Evaluate information, then come up with your own, independent opinion supported by facts.

If facts change, it behooves one to consider changing one's opinion based on updated facts.

 

Just my opinion; as always, you are free to disagree.

 

[Osama + 248]

6 hours ago, Keven Tan said:

Hi Osama

I have a question regarding the mid-election if you would be able to advise. 

I know Iran was proved not violating nuclear regulations, so the sanction was only enforced by Trump with his administrators. If the democratic takes over the congress in November, would Iran sanction be possibly released since high oil price is killing people and hurts economy?

 

Given the fact that international community still opposes the sanctions--as according to many of the allies the JCPOA was working--- I wouldn't be surprised if that happens.

[Osama + 248]

5 hours ago, Tom Kirkman said:

Stand your ground.

Evaluate information, then come up with your own, independent opinion supported by facts.

If facts change, it behooves one to consider changing one's opinion based on updated facts.

Others disagree? So what.  There will always be others who disagree, no matter what your opinion is.

So ...  to reiterate:

Stand your ground.

Evaluate information, then come up with your own, independent opinion supported by facts.

If facts change, it behooves one to consider changing one's opinion based on updated facts.

 

Just my opinion; as always, you are free to disagree.

 

Thank you for these kind and wise words!! Indeed. 

 

I never adopt an obstinate attitude when it comes to aknowledging my mistakes and that is, as you said, how one learns. The last point--if facts change....is very important indeed!!

[JunoTen + 118]

The price will first get higher due to Iranian sanctions and geopolitical tensions and then get lower due to the prospects of peak oil demand.
Waymo is launching its autonomous electric service later this year, and GM Cruise in 2019. When oil traders see the success of these services they will anticipate a drop in demand and the price will start dropping from there.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

This just in from Reuters:

U.S. pull diplomats from Iraqi city, citing threats from Iran

I'd say that headline alone is worth $10-$15 in increased price of both WTI and Brent.  We'll have to see, but IRANIAN SANCTIONS may be the least of our worries (or profits, depending on how you look at it).

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

This was a speech given by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo during the recent United Nations meetings, on September 25th:

Secretary Pompeo Delivers Remarks at the United Against Nuclear Iran Summit

I think he makes a good case on many points, but it is of course up to each individual to judge.  One thing is clear to me at least, the Trump administration, acting in the best interest of the United States, and the world I think, will continue forward with all the pressure it can bear upon Iran and one would be ill-advised to bet against any reprieve in IRANIAN SANCTIONS!  That together with the headline/link I posted above, and the many other factors pointed out by @Osama and others, would seem to indicate a continued upward trend in the price of oil.

[Osama + 248]

4 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

This just in from Reuters:

U.S. pull diplomats from Iraqi city, citing threats from Iran

I'd say that headline alone is worth $10-$15 in increased price of both WTI and Brent.  We'll have to see, but IRANIAN SANCTIONS may be the least of our worries (or profits, depending on how you look at it).

Let's see what happens....I still am clinging to my analysis that $75 will be a psychological ceiling for WTI. Unless   a drastic fall in inventories...and/or geopolitical tensions.

[Gurpreet Singh 0]

@Osama

China's economic data for the month of Sep is expected to be released on mid of Oct 2018; how much impact should we expect on oil price in case the demand lower due to bad numbers from China because of trade war impact ? 

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

1 hour ago, Gurpreet Singh said:

@Osama

China's economic data for the month of Sep is expected to be released on mid of Oct 2018; how much impact should we expect on oil price in case the demand lower due to bad numbers from China because of trade war impact ? 

As on ongoing discussion about China and tariffs on a discussion titled China Tariff or something to that effect, various points of views along with facts have been stated and posted. China is not going to be transparent with this economic data for Sept., they will adjust the numbers to show they are doing well.