WTI and Technical Analysis

[oilfutures + 39]

The great debate when it comes to the price is if price is driven by technicals or fundamentals.  It seems many take a side and feel passionate about their side.  It becomes a chicken and egg scenario that no one will ever win.  I believe that markets are driven by sentiment more than any factor.  We have seen markets defy the fundamentals (e.g. 2008 highs and 2016 lows) logic - just consider how the masses felt about oil in those years leading up to the peak and decline.  The way I trade is I look at technicals to help determine the sentiment - is it too high or is it too low?  Yes, fundamentals can help drive sentiment. 

I use simple technicals such as BB, RSI, and MAs to understand what price is telling me and where possible targets might be.  It also helps me see that price is not that random.  However, the challenge even with TA is how one might use or interpret the indicators.   I wanted to use this thread to post what I see and encourage collaboration and from how any of you may look at the market from a TA perspective.  I do have a bearish basis despite what the technicals are showing but this has more to do with my belief the masses are typically wrong and sentiment has been too bullish.  This doesn't mean WTI has further to run as technicals IMO still look strong.

My current analysis is

-Current uptrend, making higher highs for the past 12 months
-RSI 70 has been where WTI has been caution area for overbought conditions (sell offs)
-RSI 35 around a major MA have been a good buying area
-WTI has moved too quickly from homebase (9 DMA) hence the more we consolidate around these levels the sooner we will see a re-test to see the next move
-As long as we close above the 9 MA then WTI looks to repeat the move from late 2017.     

Edited September 28, 2018 by oilfutures

[BillKidd + 139]

FWIW, one thing you could do is search to find Art Berman's article from yesterday regarding his oil price prediction. Who knows but I think he basically said it should fall next year and this was based on his fundamentals analysis. At the very least, there are a number of insightful charts therein.

[Keven Tan + 85]

3 hours ago, BillKidd said:

FWIW, one thing you could do is search to find Art Berman's article from yesterday regarding his oil price prediction. Who knows but I think he basically said it should fall next year and this was based on his fundamentals analysis. At the very least, there are a number of insightful charts therein.

Thanks for the article!