How High Can Oil Prices Rise? (Part 2 of my previous thread)

[ATK + 355]

Hahaha oh man I am laughing at all the hedge funds that opened longs in the past two weeks!

Getting harder to speculate about Iranian Sanctions!

[Osama + 248]

10 minutes ago, ATK said:

Hahaha oh man I am laughing at all the hedge funds that opened longs in the past two weeks!

Getting harder to speculate about Iranian Sanctions!

Recall my Seeking Alpha's article.

 

 

In an odd twist of events...I have just gone long at$71.50...I think oil will settle at $72 once again.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

21 minutes ago, Osama said:

Recall my Seeking Alpha's article.

 

 

In an odd twist of events...I have just gone long at$71.50...I think oil will settle at $72 once again.

Have you seen JJ's bottom? @Top Oil Trader

Edited October 11, 2018 by Dan Warnick

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

22 minutes ago, Osama said:

Recall my Seeking Alpha's article.

 

 

In an odd twist of events...I have just gone long at$71.50...I think oil will settle at $72 once again.

That is brave to go long already.  It looks to the untrained eye as if it may keep falling for a while.  I wonder if fundamentals have taken over again, but there may be a good bounce up.  Perhaps @Top Oil Trader and @catch22 would care to speculate?

[ATK + 355]

6 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

That is brave to go long already.  It looks to the untrained eye as if it may keep falling for a while.  I wonder if fundamentals have taken over again, but there may be a good bounce up.  Perhaps @Top Oil Trader and @catch22 would care to speculate?

9 week EMA close to $70.66, prices have bounced off this in the past, but RSI on the 1hr and 4hr getting oversold too. Hurricane Michael will likely have an impact on inventory reports next week, we will likely see a crude and to a lesser extent  gas draws next week so a bounce to $72 wouldn't be out of the question 

[Osama + 248]

13 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Have you seen JJ's bottom? @Top Oil Trader

No I haven't I just traded a tad..very less.....and booked it already. 

 

seems like we will hit $69 or something before getting another bounce back?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 minutes ago, Osama said:

No I haven't I just traded a tad..very less.....and booked it already. 

 

seems like we will hit $69 or something before getting another bounce back?

I honestly don't know now, Osama.  That news about KSA supplying 4 mb really threw me.  If they can supplant that much every month it makes a difference.  Everyone else is supplying more, too, so some of the uncertainty the players were using to scare everyone is gone, IMHO.  I'm going to wait it out until there is convincing evidence one way or the other.

My short ETF on the Russell 1000 has me up $728 so far today.

[catch22 + 244]

2 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

That is brave to go long already.  It looks to the untrained eye as if it may keep falling for a while.  I wonder if fundamentals have taken over again, but there may be a good bounce up.  Perhaps @Top Oil Trader and @catch22 would care to speculate?

for now the downward channel is broken to the downside and also went thru s100 - so the downward momentum is building. No trades to be had - its already made its break and when it broke- that was the tradable move. Now its out of pivot range and how far down it can go from here is indeterminable. A return to the upside is also not out of the question but again - in determinable with any confidence.

It will also be sensitive to geopolitical and supply demand news so this is the space you need to be watching now... it will give price action more than anything else right now.

[ATK + 355]

3 hours ago, ATK said:

9 week EMA close to $70.66, prices have bounced off this in the past, but RSI on the 1hr and 4hr getting oversold too. Hurricane Michael will likely have an impact on inventory reports next week, we will likely see a crude and to a lesser extent  gas draws next week so a bounce to $72 wouldn't be out of the question 

Damn ATK nice call! Would just like to add that this one comment has more detail than any guess JJ has done

[ATK + 355]

On 10/11/2018 at 2:30 PM, ATK said:

9 week EMA close to $70.66, prices have bounced off this in the past, but RSI on the 1hr and 4hr getting oversold too. Hurricane Michael will likely have an impact on inventory reports next week, we will likely see a crude and to a lesser extent  gas draws next week so a bounce to $72 wouldn't be out of the question 

 

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

49 minutes ago, ATK said:

 

If I am not mistaken the hurricane shut in 718,000bpd+/- of crude production and 800mmcf of gas  in the GoM, and for 3 days shut in , it was estimated that 1.7m bbls of crude production was lost from Wednesday. It will take a few days to restore all the shut in production which could add well over 3 mil bbls of production shortfall adding to the inventory volume , which would then probably push the price to 75$/bbl

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

Oil & Money 2018: Growth and investment opportunities ahead as demand for oil to hit record high

https://www.oilfieldtechnology.com/drilling-and-production/12102018/oil-money-2018-growth-and-investment-opportunities-ahead-as-demand-for-oil-to-hit-record-high/

[ATK + 355]

On 10/11/2018 at 2:30 PM, ATK said:

9 week EMA close to $70.66, prices have bounced off this in the past, but RSI on the 1hr and 4hr getting oversold too. Hurricane Michael will likely have an impact on inventory reports next week, we will likely see a crude and to a lesser extent  gas draws next week so a bounce to $72 wouldn't be out of the question 

Exactly how it played out 

Edit: I will keep reposting till I get acknowledgement 

It's like JJ cam say up or down and everyone (mostly just DW) rides his dick, where I post where and why it will bounce and everyone is like "I WONDER HURRRR DURRR"

Edited October 13, 2018 by ATK

[AE911truth.org + 17]

Any chance that countries and/or corporations will boycott Saudi oil due to the Saudi murder of journalist Kashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul?

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

58 minutes ago, AE911truth.org said:

Any chance that countries and/or corporations will boycott Saudi oil due to the Saudi murder of journalist Kashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul?

No facts that  yet. The Saudi's may get rebuked but companies/countries may not be willing to or wanting to or be in a position to sanction or boycott KSA in any meaningful way given the geopolitical issue in the Mid-East with Iran already. We would then be seeing 170-200$/bbl oil if Saudi oil was sanctioned and or boycotted in any meaningful way

[AE911truth.org + 17]

1 hour ago, ceo_energemsier said:

No facts that  yet. The Saudi's may get rebuked but companies/countries may not be willing to or wanting to or be in a position to sanction or boycott KSA in any meaningful way given the geopolitical issue in the Mid-East with Iran already. We would then be seeing 170-200$/bbl oil if Saudi oil was sanctioned and or boycotted in any meaningful way

I'm not saying every country will boycott it, but I would think maybe a half dozen or so countries might do so.  For example, if South Africa decided to boycott Saudi oil, maybe KSA would reduce its production by the amount it used to export to South Africa, thereby increasing global supply tightness.  Several corporations have already decided to boycott a Saudi economic conference.  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/khashoggi-disappearance-media-companies-pull-saudi-event-181012143101742.html

As for myself personally, I would prefer to buy my gasoline from an oil company that does not get their oil from KSA, such as Sunoco, Hess, or Citgo.

Edited October 14, 2018 by AE911truth.org

[ceo_energemsier + 1,818]

26 minutes ago, AE911truth.org said:

I'm not saying every country will boycott it, but I would think maybe a half dozen or so countries might do so.  For example, if South Africa decided to boycott Saudi oil, maybe KSA would reduce its production by the amount it used to export to South Africa, thereby increasing global supply tightness.  Several corporations have already decided to boycott a Saudi economic conference.  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/khashoggi-disappearance-media-companies-pull-saudi-event-181012143101742.html

As for myself personally, I would prefer to buy my gasoline from an oil company that does not get their oil from KSA, such as Sunoco, Hess, or Citgo.

As far as buying gasoline from Sunoco, Hess, or Citgo (Citgo being owned by PDVSA from Venezuela, a failed socialist-commie State), gasoline is fungible as is crude oil . You could be buying gasoline made from crude oil from any of the OPEC countries in the US, refineries use the crude oils (blends) best suited for their refineries, given the product slate, their refinery configuration, time of the year, prices, supply and logistics . You gasoline sold @ a Hess or Sunoco could be directly imported from EU , or the Mid-East or even Asia and sold at the retail outlets under those brand names, gasoline could have been refined at a regional refinery using a blend of crude oils from Bakken, Eagle Ford, Saudi, Q-8 , North Sea .....

Right now , countries, politicians, groups, organizations, companies are feigning their anger over the disappearance of the Journalist. This has made news recently under certain geopolitical events in Turkey and the region ... This has happened before and countless of documented human rights and civil rights violations were shown to have taken place but everyone gave and give lip service and token gestures of outrage. If South Africa decides not to buy Saudi crude then they will just add that volume to sell to China and or India.

Just FYI the journalist is related to the arms  dealer of the same last name.

 

[Osama + 248]

8 hours ago, AE911truth.org said:

Any chance that countries and/or corporations will boycott Saudi oil due to the Saudi murder of journalist Kashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul?

Well...this is an interesting perspective.

There is a possibility....however, when it comes to a country's energy needs....we might see a compromise..that is to say....no boycott.

[ATK + 355]

On 10/11/2018 at 2:30 PM, ATK said:

9 week EMA close to $70.66, prices have bounced off this in the past, but RSI on the 1hr and 4hr getting oversold too. Hurricane Michael will likely have an impact on inventory reports next week, we will likely see a crude and to a lesser extent  gas draws next week so a bounce to $72 wouldn't be out of the question 

Played out

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Just 2 very short comments. Lately people comming out of the woodwork saying the market will crash. It might but not before going up, to the higher 20s. I expect it to hit about 29969.

With regards to crude (WTI) the drop is not over. Quite sure lots have been buying the dip, hoping to buying the low, you are better off buying some dip and putting it under your gum. And once the drop is over, we could see 80s.

Tom in regards to oil staying at 70s in 2019, i think oil should be at 15, however powerful entities wont let that happen. But due to the rise of the dollar which will continue to rise, and eventually cause the stock market crash, as that happens the oil prices will suffer.

 

[AE911truth.org + 17]

On 10/14/2018 at 3:17 AM, Osama said:

Well...this is an interesting perspective.

There is a possibility....however, when it comes to a country's energy needs....we might see a compromise..that is to say....no boycott.

Although a boycott by the US government is unlikely, Senator Lindsey Graham said the U.S. should “sanction the hell out of Saudi Arabia”.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/16/graham-sanction-saudi-arabia-905641

[Jo Mack + 43]

I'd say by the end of the year oil prices will get close to $80.00 range.  Sanctions will start to impact world markets and Iran will start pushing back in the Straights of Hermuz.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 hours ago, AE911truth.org said:

Although a boycott by the US government is unlikely, Senator Lindsey Graham said the U.S. should “sanction the hell out of Saudi Arabia”.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/16/graham-sanction-saudi-arabia-905641

Senator Lindsey Graham has an election coming up next month.  Enough said.

[ATK + 355]

2 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Senator Lindsey Graham has an election coming up next month.  Enough said.

Oh my god I know! What a fucking ass, he doesn't give a shit about this journalist or the potential repercussions for his strong man talk. Dude (along with all of congress) literally let's trump slap tariffs on our closes allies, but this THIS is where he draws the line! Absolutely crazy

[ATK + 355]

On 10/11/2018 at 2:30 PM, ATK said:

9 week EMA close to $70.66, prices have bounced off this in the past, but RSI on the 1hr and 4hr getting oversold too. Hurricane Michael will likely have an impact on inventory reports next week, we will likely see a crude and to a lesser extent  gas draws next week so a bounce to $72 wouldn't be out of the question 

I also called this entire week