Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 16, 2018 Well the bulls won this round for now, looks like crude will try to go back up. to 72.5 maybe 73. They have no interest in crude prices collapsing. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ATK + 355 AK October 16, 2018 (edited) 15 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said: Well the bulls won this round for now, looks like crude will try to go back up. to 72.5 maybe 73. They have no interest in crude prices collapsing. API report showing a crude, gas, and distillates draw across the board. With 49% of gulf rigs being offline and people prepping for the hurricane Michael, I'm expecting eia to show something similar. Just supply and demand stuff. We were also oversold on the 1hr and 4hr when we bounced off the 9 week EMA at $70.6x so this was kind of expected as well. I have a post from last week saying all this Edited October 16, 2018 by ATK 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 16, 2018 Indeed, ATK, good observation. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ATK + 355 AK October 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Top Oil Trader said: Indeed, ATK, good observation. Your stuff earlier was good, more so for the fact that I could follow your thought process 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 16, 2018 ATK your welcome. an honor. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 17, 2018 So almost looks like 71 was the bottom, but i do think they have more surprises. this is just a recess so they can pick up their wounded, and then go for a series of more clashes. For now i would be looking for a long at least counter trend, and take it as far as it goes. You never question the sanity of the market, just go with it. just take some Prozac and go with it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 17, 2018 Only thing that i have in common with Howard Cosell is maybe my nose. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn October 17, 2018 (edited) updating my TA from yesterday - this is what panned out; As you can see, technical analysis and a trading plan can give you an edge, and an easy 50 pips... patterns like this give a reasonably high probability of breaking out. Provided you see them as they are forming and have your plan ready, then you can hit these with reasonable consistency Edited October 17, 2018 by catch22 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 17, 2018 Catch22 what patterns you talking about. the resistance lines?, the uptrend? draw a pattern on chart so others can see better 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 17, 2018 (edited) It was brought to my attention today that, with regards to the Saudi trunk trimming (too soon?) and Pompeo's quick little visit, one should be able to expect Saudi to ensure their outflow valves are wide open and they will make it clear to all and sundry that they absolutely have capacity to spare. Quid pro quo, I believe it is called, for saving their bacon. Oops, possibly a poor choice of word? Edited October 17, 2018 by Dan Warnick Removed the word "meat" Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 17, 2018 A little background that was surprising, yet not surprising, is the post below from @Cowpoke Interesting read: Jamal Khashoggi: The Media Fights for a Muslim Brotherhood Pal of Osama Bin Laden https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/271623/jamal-khashoggi-media-fights-muslim-brotherhood-daniel-greenfield Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 17, 2018 (edited) bacon? Edited October 17, 2018 by Top Oil Trader 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 17, 2018 Just now, Top Oil Trader said: bacon? funny how much pompeo looks like bacon I like the guy, but I can't shake this feeling that he's going to have a heart attack on tv. Nah, he's probably speed dialed in to Cheney's rapid response team of heart specialists. 💖 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn October 17, 2018 hilarious Dan - i like that last part and a nice little insight that one - makes perfect sense - however i wouldnt go so far as to say you could take it to the bank... i dont think the market cares too much about that story as nothing has been showing in the price action as this story was unfolding, i dont think the market considers it all that important... maybe a little... JJ - google "chart patterns" and specifically the last chart i posted shows a symmetrical traingle pattern - with the key lines already drawn. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, catch22 said: hilarious Dan - i like that last part and a nice little insight that one - makes perfect sense - however i wouldnt go so far as to say you could take it to the bank... i dont think the market cares too much about that story as nothing has been showing in the price action as this story was unfolding, i dont think the market considers it all that important... maybe a little... JJ - google "chart patterns" and specifically the last chart i posted shows a symmetrical traingle pattern - with the key lines already drawn. Agreed, but it adds just that little bit of certainty that oil will go down soon. How soon? Anyone's guess at this point. The point of the tip was that there was a perception that the Saudis were just paying lip service to Trump about opening the valves, but that they will now allow the U.S. to confirm that. For me, it doesn't matter whether the valve is perceived to be wide open or 7/8 open or whatever, just so long as demand is being met, the rest is just fluff and commentary. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 17, 2018 (edited) catch22 try and tell us next time before the price moves up. see that would be more exciting, and just let us know how you see this trade, long or short. after the fact, not too much help, imho. and just mention the exact pattern or draw it out, as you know catch22 patterns are subjective, where you might see a triangle someone else might see a bagel. Edited October 17, 2018 by Top Oil Trader 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn October 17, 2018 Trump was foolish when he handled the questions from the jounalists initially - he should have simply said "we dont have any information and law enforcement is looking into it" and left it at that... Instead he trumpeted something stupid at a time when he needs the saudis on side not only for oil prices but the military contracts, and the middle east alliance in general. He didnt need this running into the mid terms.... foolish... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn October 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said: catch22 try and tell us next time before the price moves up. see that would be more exciting, and just let us know how you see this trade, long or short. after the fact, not too much help, imho. and just mention the exact pattern or draw it out, as you know catch22 patterns are subjective, where you might see a triangle someone else might see a bagel. I DID - go back and see my prior post and chart setting up the position... you were asleep! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 17, 2018 (edited) dont worry bout trump, the republicans have won the election. Edited October 17, 2018 by Top Oil Trader 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 17, 2018 18 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said: dont worry bout trump, the republicans have won the election. I hope so. The media spin machine says different, but they did that a couple of years back too, didn't they? We'll see. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Top Oil Trader + 469 JJ October 17, 2018 By the way the democrat ticket will be Hilary/Michelle. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ATK + 355 AK October 17, 2018 Bears took the news about the Saudi''s not cutting oil production and are running with it. I still think we will see a crude draw this week so I expect to see a little bounce followed by sideways trading 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
oilfutures + 39 OF October 17, 2018 Boys - We are heading to the 100 DMA, let's watch and see how it reacts from there. 200 DMA will be at 67. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ATK + 355 AK October 17, 2018 56 minutes ago, ATK said: Bears took the news about the Saudi''s not cutting oil production and are running with it. I still think we will see a crude draw this week so I expect to see a little bounce followed by sideways trading Nvm! Huge crude build! I don't know why anyone would pay for API as they are wrong 99% of the time 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, ATK said: Nvm! Huge crude build! I don't know why anyone would pay for API as they are wrong 99% of the time 🙃 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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