WTI @ $75.75, headed for $64 - 67

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 minute ago, catch22 said:

see how the market is respecting the channel - the big money can see the same patterns on their charts... its trying to turn and bounce off the lower channel and S78 confluence - but its having some trouble - see there is confusion in the price action - still no trade to be had at the moment this screenshot is taken. You have to continue to wait until you see the clean bounce high or break low, if you want the higher probability setup- then take the position. yes it means you dont get the full range of the move - but its better to get a part of it reliably than getting it wrong...

Thanks.  I'll wait and see, and read how you say it's developing.  I get what you're describing, but seeing it unfold is another thing for me at this time.

[catch22 + 244]

heres an example of a position i opened today on EURAUD fx pair...

It was a good setup - long term resistance, double top formation, 2 previous double tops aswell, all time historical high - it was always going to be extremely difficult for the price to break this level - so with everything lining up - i took a position in stages - and initial part entry of a few positions, then hit a few sell stops on the way down, and i have more sell stops to be hit as it keeps going. Provided all goes well tonight - ill add even more to this tomorrow and let it keep going adding more and more... This was the only position i took today out of the dozen or so markets i trade as i felt it was the only one worth taking and its playing out well for me so far. I didnt take anything yesterday or the day before, nothing good enough.

i stage the entries like this so that if does go bad initially- i only loose part of my intended total position. once things are in the green - keep adding until you reach the target...

Edited October 11, 2018 by catch22

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

I think at this point though i was planning on telling you guys when the wti will reverse back up, i do believe you will need to figure it out by yourself, as catch says dont listen to anyone, so i will help him out, so that you wont need to listen to my advice when i see the bottom of this move.

Don't take this the wrong way, but, where's your bottom?

[ATK + 355]

23 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Don't take this the wrong way, but, where's your bottom?

He doesn't have one picked out and just fills it in after the fact 

[Jesse Man + 17]

14 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Jesse. Quick question. Do your read the title of the threads Man?

Yes I read the titles, that doesn't mean they are right though.

[catch22 + 244]

6 hours ago, ATK said:

He doesn't have one picked out and just fills it in after the fact 

Or continues to make calls until eventually he gets lucky - then says look how amazing i am!

Theres nothing amazing about luck. You can flip a coin 6 times in a row and come up heads 6 times in a row too. Luck is random and even random numbers can seemingly have trends or winning streaks within them...

None of JJs calls ever have a time frame on them - and without a very specific time frame-its useless. You cant trade a CFD or option or other leveraged instrument with an open ended time frame and wait till next year, next week, or next month for the price to return to the level you called- it has to happen immediately of your position goes into heavy drawdown and you risk loosing massive amounts of money waiting for it to come back...  its just not realistic and deep down inside JJ -you know this!

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

11 hours ago, catch22 said:

You cant trade a CFD or option or other leveraged instrument with an open ended time frame and wait till next year, next week, or next month for the price to return to the level you called- it has to happen immediately of your position goes into heavy drawdown and you risk loosing massive amounts of money waiting for it to come back

Exactly.

[ATK + 355]

14 hours ago, catch22 said:

Or continues to make calls until eventually he gets lucky - then says look how amazing i am!

Theres nothing amazing about luck. You can flip a coin 6 times in a row and come up heads 6 times in a row too. Luck is random and even random numbers can seemingly have trends or winning streaks within them...

None of JJs calls ever have a time frame on them - and without a very specific time frame-its useless. You cant trade a CFD or option or other leveraged instrument with an open ended time frame and wait till next year, next week, or next month for the price to return to the level you called- it has to happen immediately of your position goes into heavy drawdown and you risk loosing massive amounts of money waiting for it to come back...  its just not realistic and deep down inside JJ -you know this!

I'll be honest by how he talks and carries himself, I imagine he is like 19 years old or something.

He just throws random numbers out at this point

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Yes im a little disappointed in some of you. Im trying to help you guys make money, by calling swing highs and bottoms. I told you i got a lot better since last month, and i even proved it to you. But the fact that some of you take my analysis to be a joke, tells me i should not waste my valuable time now, since currently im trying to work with 4 different forex companies at the same time, so also trading crude and telling you guys whats going on, is to much work, if its not appreciated. I may  come back in the future, if i so feel like it. Take care.

[NAPHTA + 33]

23 hours ago, catch22 said:

heres an example of a position i opened today on EURAUD fx pair...

It was a good setup - long term resistance, double top formation, 2 previous double tops aswell, all time historical high - it was always going to be extremely difficult for the price to break this level - so with everything lining up - i took a position in stages - and initial part entry of a few positions, then hit a few sell stops on the way down, and i have more sell stops to be hit as it keeps going. Provided all goes well tonight - ill add even more to this tomorrow and let it keep going adding more and more... This was the only position i took today out of the dozen or so markets i trade as i felt it was the only one worth taking and its playing out well for me so far. I didnt take anything yesterday or the day before, nothing good enough.

i stage the entries like this so that if does go bad initially- i only loose part of my intended total position. once things are in the green - keep adding until you reach the target...

Catch22, I don't know bout others but your feeds come in the right time for me. I really appreciate this. In reality, a lot of psychology is involved. Greed and hasty decisions or anxiety and again bad decisions. There is a methodic calm in the way you describe your strategy that really helps. Personally, I don't trade currencies, as it is too abstract for me. But the method part, I set it up as an ideal. Can't reach there anytime soon but at least it is a clear direction —contrary to how Brent is moving today in the European Session.  

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so it is tempting to go long crude, and indeed crude is very oversold, so from a traders stand point is seems like a good trade, and indeed many traders are buying the dips, not saying you cant make a couple of cents here and here.

Indeed crude will attempt a rise to 72, but in any case, it belongs below 70 where its headed. When? That's up to them. so far the WTI has hardly moved, only 24 cents, but the range lately has been $ 1.5 so we could see prices below 69.40 this month. The down trend right now is weak, but it changes on a dime. Crude moves at its own pace. So predicting the day it will hit a certain price, is a game easily lost.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So indeed crude was so weak it could even make 72 which was just a 20 cent move up. This tells you, they are moving it down without even trying to set up the bulls. Rarely happens, but it shows desperation, that at this moment, there must be some glut of oil, that they are trying to sell the supply at any price they can get, before it drops under 70.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Right now wti at 71.40 couint make the 72 for a fake, with these guys its never too late, maybe they where sleeping, during the drop. Anyways, once 71.30 breaks, 70.80 is next, maybe a sorry bounce from that level.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

anyways for me 70.80 is where i cover. 4 contracts short atm

Edited October 16, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Contracts i picked was the CLZ8

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Im really eying the 68 level, but first the bulls will buy the dips. But for today 70.80 is my target, no reason to be greedy.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

the Trend is now down strong, been for a while, and the range so far is 85 cents, the max for today based on my calc are $1.5 so we have another 60 cents to go. Which would leave the wti at about 70.60 - 70.80 target for today. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

almost up 2k on 5.

Just so you understand this is not rocket science. Even though crude is headed down, that doesnt mean orders wont come in today to buy, people sitll need to fill up. So basically once the stops will be trigger somewhere under 71, the buys order normally will fill, and spike it up a bit.

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I had to micro analyze to see where the spike will come in. But from what i see it will come in at about 70.60.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

probably 70.20 sounds greedy, but just looking at facts, where the spike may happen. But once wti drops below 71 again it will be vicious and ruthless.

Edited October 16, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

i have lots of discussion if indicators work, or do you just look at price action. Well indicators probably dont work, unless you can really go complex. But what if you made an indicator that was based on price action. Or what if you could mix delayed indicators with price action. That a different ball game.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Man i dont shut up. The difference if you trade something like eurgbp or eurusd and crude or brent is. The market markets, will almost always spike it 30 points before a drop. So is you use tight stops in crude, good luck. Whereas in forex, you could, since usually a spike means reversal of direction. So its easier to handle. Crude went down to 71.08 and then spiked to 71.40, why? Because they can, just a way to clean out, shorts who got late to the game.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

well it looks like they dont want to drop it again under 71 for now. I guess once was enough.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

JJ, you are going like Howard Cosell today!  Keep it up, it's fun and interesting to watch.

[catch22 + 244]

Chart pattern is showing lower highs and higher lows - triangle pattern. It will break one way or the other, see attached chart;

As always, one should wait for clear price action to show a clear and strong move/break of these support resitance lines before trading - it may come to nothing, but this pattern usually results in some action by market movers... stay tuned