WTI @ $75.75, headed for $64 - 67

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

13 hours ago, drdanger said:

How is it not possible to predict, all very logical. DIP get liquidity, boom rocket boost to next level. Advising people to short in a bull market is irresponsible in the first place. I went long at $71 Brent when JJ was trumping doom and gloom or changing his ideas every other day stating he hasn't had time to look at charts. Since then have just been adding on dips, checking retracements, playing the ranges (boxes on chart). Until market tells us otherwise we are in a continuous uptrend and if you try to make sense of FOMO news which are always either too late or downright incorrect then you shouldn't be trading.

I agree we should have caution here as we are approaching some heady heights and when CNBC starts calling silly numbers and sniffles in a new "bull trend" you know you should be on guard. But until such time when market tells us otherwise its a bull market end of story.

I had been long for over a week and had excellent returns.  Closed my position this last Monday and then re-opened another long position on the dip yesterday.  I have a target WTI price of @ $90 and will continue to buy contracts with expectations of maximum $5 rises for each until we get there or there is a clear signal to a reversal.  I say clear signal, and by that I mean that I feel when the price of oil starts its descent it will be fast and deep.  Just my opinion, so we'll see what happens.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 hours ago, NAPHTA said:

The big question after the inventories is why everyone keeps pointing finger at OPEC, while US is sitting on 8-9 million of stockpiled supplied oil? are we not pointed out to the wrong alley, via all channels, including tweets?

 See the post by Enthalpic. This environmentally extremely hazardous fracking and drilling has been a black well swallowing investments from the investors in years. They are now trying to be profitable for once. Who do you think those investors are? Some anxious, us-backed Aramco-sheikh? Long lost Nigerian princes? Or shall we look into more familiar places: The man made of Gold, the Brothers and other actors on stage somewhere downtown Manhattan, not far from T-tower. 

I think you are getting very close to the source of all this.  Manhattan is "yugely" invested in oil, but those guys can reverse their positions and make just as much money going down.  The key, IMHO, is knowing/seeing when they physically start to reverse their positions for the downward ride/return.  Milk it all the way to the top, send out every media wonk you can to say oil should be going down for all the right reasons which makes a great many start to bet short and therefore fill Manhattan's pockets one last time, and then when everyone finally accepts that oil is going for $100, short the hell out of it and sheer the sheep.  Rinse, repeat.

As you noted, the distance between downtown and T-tower is not far.  One should be aware one or two of the Manhattan players have loaned the POTUS a great deal of money over the years, sometimes willingly, sometimes under duress/no other real choice.  It is my firm belief that they have held those markers with every intention of cashing them in some day, and that day has come.  As others have alluded to, watch these players as closely as you can.  They have absolutely zero concern for anyone, individual, company or country, losing their shirts so long as they can make as much money as possible.  Those houses in the Hamptons can be so expensive you know.  During the 2008 period the world collapsed and these same players were given bailouts, scooped up houses by the millions, collected insurance to the point of bankrupting the insurers, took the minions to court and won, and then remarketed all those homes at 100% profit or more ( @Jan van Eck can and has gone into great detail on this).

One of the comments said that a person should not make predictions unless they are willing to tell how they got there.  Ok, I guess, I'm trading in smallish increments to the upside until the price slides a bit and closing.  Then trying to figure out the bottom of the dip and buying back in.  The next bit of luck will be figuring out when the next real price fall starts, because I believe once it starts it will be fast and furious and Manhattan will have their handwriting all over it.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

10 hours ago, Outlaw Jackie said:

I know, as we age we seem to forget more.  But what about seasonal trends and the prospect of a mild winter in Northern Hemisphere?  What about refinery maintenance, and the end of the summer driving season?  Anyone? 

Paul, the winter picture is a mixed bag.  Calgary, Alberta just got hit with a 10-inch snowfall, making a mess of the City.  You have to assume that their heating season is in full blast.  That said,  the US Northeast, which is mostly oil heat, is mild and warm, surprisingly so for this time of year.  I think we are headed for a much milder winter on the US East Coast with corresponding large drops in heating oil consumption. 

Now keep in mind that, historically, a lot of that heating oil was supplied by Venezuelan crude being refined in the Caribbean, including the refinery in Curacao.  I recall that refinery is being seized by creditors.  And just about all Venezuelan crude is headed for China, unprocessed. With that scenario, the Chinese consumption of WTI will drop, notwithstanding the opaque third-party buying apparently going on. Lots of games being played. 

To speculate, I suggest a larger factor (beyond low winter demand) will be drop-offs in jet fuel.  These plane builders are running flat out, and the new planes are remarkably less fuel burners than the old ones getting retired out to the desert for storage or dismantling.  Add to that the drop-off of the huge long-haul planes, dominated by the A-380, which production line is basically history except for Emirates still buying some.  Without Emirates that airplane is gone.  Instead you are seeing this big upsurge in small machines such as the Bombardier C-series, which will tend to fly full and are very efficient.  How much does this shrink the fuel purchase envelope? I don't know, I have no info on that, but it is hard to believe it is not going to have an impact on overall jetfuel.

The big station-wagons of the old "summer driving season" are gone.  The impact of the loss of these big gas burners should flatten that consumption.  

It looks like the world is awash in oil, and for pricing, what would be interesting to find out is just how much oil the hedge fund crowd is stashing in floating storage, to artificially keep it off the offering market.     
Personally, I think your prediction of sixty bucks is logical.  I'll stick my neck out and say even lower.  Hey, what do I know, I'm not even an oil guy.  This is a commodity market that is being manipulated.  (And PS:  I predict that every drop of Iranian oil will find its way to buyers.  Embargo?  No chance.)

[NAPHTA + 33]

3 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

I think you are getting very close to the source of all this.  Manhattan is "yugely" invested in oil, but those guys can reverse their positions and make just as much money going down.  The key, IMHO, is knowing/seeing when they physically start to reverse their positions for the downward ride/return.  Milk it all the way to the top, send out every media wonk you can to say oil should be going down for all the right reasons which makes a great many start to bet short and therefore fill Manhattan's pockets one last time, and then when everyone finally accepts that oil is going for $100, short the hell out of it and sheer the sheep.  Rinse, repeat.

As you noted, the distance between downtown and T-tower is not far.  One should be aware one or two of the Manhattan players have loaned the POTUS a great deal of money over the years, sometimes willingly, sometimes under duress/no other real choice.  It is my firm belief that they have held those markers with every intention of cashing them in some day, and that day has come.  As others have alluded to, watch these players as closely as you can.  They have absolutely zero concern for anyone, individual, company or country, losing their shirts so long as they can make as much money as possible.  Those houses in the Hamptons can be so expensive you know.  During the 2008 period the world collapsed and these same players were given bailouts, scooped up houses by the millions, collected insurance to the point of bankrupting the insurers, took the minions to court and won, and then remarketed all those homes at 100% profit or more ( @Jan van Eck can and has gone into great detail on this).

One of the comments said that a person should not make predictions unless they are willing to tell how they got there.  Ok, I guess, I'm trading in smallish increments to the upside until the price slides a bit and closing.  Then trying to figure out the bottom of the dip and buying back in.  The next bit of luck will be figuring out when the next real price fall starts, because I believe once it starts it will be fast and furious and Manhattan will have their handwriting all over it.

Dan, Thanks for those words, clarifying further what is going on. Two points cross my mind: 1. I think those major houses sometimes get stuck in impasse as well and can't get out  by pure technical means and need some bigger "gestures", conflicts, sanction to get it rolling. 2. "The next bit of luck will be figuring out when the next real price fall starts". Good for starting a new topic? Definitely, please!

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So oil went down, finally

[ATK + 355]

1 minute ago, Top Oil Trader said:

So oil went down, finally

Lol its in the same spot as it was yesterday though 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

The signal hit today at 76.5. Yes so this week like i said the wti was ready for a plunge but didnt have the signal until today. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

its at 75 now, and i know lot of people who went long maybe again today, are praying it goes back up, but i see it hit 74 later

[ATK + 355]

1 minute ago, Top Oil Trader said:

The signal hit today at 76.5. Yes so this week like i said the wti was ready for a plunge but didnt have the signal until today. 

Lol okay

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

ATK comming from trading forex, i an tell you, there is nothing more volatile than crude.

If i ever traded this wti (a future on meth), i would need to be very careful with my entries, since this dawg can move $2 in 1 direction for no reason.

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Closed my long position.  It's falling as easy and for no obvious reason like it was climbing too easy and for no obvious reason in previous days.  Out!

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

All the major indexes are making like submarines that have been spotted from the air.  Dive, dive, dive!  LOL!

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Nice. You see i trade in a bubble all i have open is the euro, there could be tsunami in New York, better in New Jersey and i wouldnt know

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

One day when i make the first 100k in forex. Will need to get some  serious computer and set myself up so i can see oil, dow, gold and other pairs, and one for any news out there

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Osame i see lots of your posts is how high oil is going up, if you have so much info about it hitting 100 why did you short?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

If i ever decide wti again it will be from the long term side, in the daily day trade its so wild it would be too much of a waste fo time, for me. But i do realize there are 1000s and 1000s of day traders in crude, since the money or losses indeed are super fast, so the rush for day traders is unheard of.

[ATK + 355]

2 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Closed my long position.  It's falling as easy and for no obvious reason like it was climbing too easy and for no obvious reason in previous days.  Out!

Awww there is that bullish bias! Falling for no reason you say? Or the market coming to its senses? 

Largest crude build in 19 months caused by DECREASING EXPORTS (aka oil market not as tight as the media believes)

Saudi Arabia and Russia both agreeing to increase output. Now if I remember correctly, the rally started because OPEC said they "wouldn't " increase production. But would you look at that! Sure enough they did! Also Kuwait-Saudi oil fields are not included when calculating spare capacity by most analyst

Strengthening US dollar and it's effect on emerging markets and their oil purchases (India borrowing more money to buy oil while the rupee continues to decline, I don't want to be the bank that loaned them the money when it comes time to pay the bills!)

Hedge funds and traders are the only ones that want $100. OPEC knows it's not worth destroying the global economy for a few good months of expensive oil prices and won't let oil remain in the triple digits for long 

 

Oh and Iran is going to sell those barrels on the black market for a cheap discount as they have in the past, so anyone who thinks exports will go to 0 is just delusional 

 

Edited October 4, 2018 by ATK

[ATK + 355]

25 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Osame i see lots of your posts is how high oil is going up, if you have so much info about it hitting 100 why did you short?

If your so sure about your predictions with oil, why don't YOU put your money where your mouth is.

As your post history implies, you would of lost a lot of money

Also how about you post your graphs too, oilprice today called the local bottom to a T. We were messaging each other earlier and his graph was spot on

Edited October 4, 2018 by ATK

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

32 minutes ago, ATK said:

Awww there is that bullish bias! Falling for no reason you say? Or the market coming to its senses? 

Exactly.  Falling for no reasons that we both/all haven't known for weeks if not longer.  That's what I mean.  Why now?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

The contrarian in me says this was just a shake out move by some big players and we will soon go back into rising prices.  What do you think?

[catch22 + 244]

the shake out move is a common story amongst most markets and it has a technical basis to it. What happens is the big players deliberately spike the price to take out others stop/limits when the price action is slow reaching a limit where buyers not willing to pay a higher price and sellers not wanting to sell for less so things end up at standstill as liquidity is gone.  When the stops are taken out by the spike liquidity returns and things get moving again.  People get nervous and stop out, other see the move and jump on the gravy train and away it goes. This usually results in a reversal when you see it at price extremes. It can be identified by spiking candles when the price is overbought or oversold - you know you could be in for a a reversal.

My personal opinion is that for a longer term trade - its still going up. The correction weve just seen had to happen - it was crazy overbought. However in the short term - it will probably start ranging in the area its in now, up and down haphazardly. Pretty dangerous market conditions to short term trade with tho - i wouldnt. If i did - id only be buying dips not selling tops tho due to upside bias...

Edited October 5, 2018 by catch22

[catch22 + 244]

a bear flag / pennant pattern has been developing on the 1hr chart.. its looking to break later- history tells us the big action starts after NY session opens, and adhering to conventional pattern theory in a bear flag - it should break one way or the other - that should be the direction your looking for in the short term TF but you have to be quick in/out as oil often whipsaws here which is why its difficult to short term trade.  The lower low than previous level, and now bear flag after 3 bulls, suggests the overall daily move will probably be lower than current level, tho not guaranteed, as it can break either way and we still have a rising trend in play. Beware of the possible whipsaw or preceeding spike however just like so many before it shown in the chart.  Note the 3 bull flags prior to this bear flag. Lastly and most importantly - the rising trend support line - it has respected this line all week... if it breaks below this, its likely to rapidly slide down to the 72-72.5 area by market close friday evening. This pattern is irrelevant for long term direction of course... more of a daily direction. If i were to trade this - id be looking for a move toward 74 and then shorting if it breaks and not getting in too early - wait for the initial move to play out before entry to avoid a possible head fake spike the wrong way. If it clearly breaks the forming bear flag high, say above the 75.50 mark- then its back up to near 77 for a long.

Disclaimer - im not a pro trader, but this is my best effort at trying to figure its next daily movement...

 

 

Edited October 5, 2018 by catch22

[NAPHTA + 33]

2 hours ago, catch22 said:

the shake out move is a common story amongst most markets and it has a technical basis to it. What happens is the big players deliberately spike the price to take out others stop/limits when the price action is slow reaching a limit where buyers not willing to pay a higher price and sellers not wanting to sell for less so things end up at standstill.  This creates liquidity when the stops are taken out and then the price begins to move again now that liquidity returns. This usually results in a reversal when you see at at price extremes. It can be identified by spiking candles when the price is overbought or oversold - you know you could be in for a a reversal.

My personal opinion is that for a longer term trade - its still going up. The correction weve just seen had to happen - it was crazy overbought. However in the short term - it will probably start ranging in the area its in now, up and down haphazardly. Pretty dangerous market conditions to short term trade with tho - i wouldnt. If i did - id only be buying dips not selling tops tho due to upside bias...

This was substantial, thanks! As someone occasionally trading Brent, I think this Friday is a really difficult day. Uptrend is quite intact. Sideway movement is the logically expected development, but precisely therefor, a surprise in either direction might be looming. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Hei guys and gals a little bit kind of amazed i have that many followers. 

What i am trying here, is to determine the swing trade, where the trend changes for a while, could be 1 week or more, closer to 1 month.

Not the 50 cent, 1 dollar moves, those are a lot lot  easier to figure out, but you need to mange your stops just in case they get you on the volatility.

The swing trade kind of easy in forex, but even harder to do in crude, since it is so volatile, so you will always be off by 1 or 2 dollars, no matter how accurate you are.

So, to me now everything is setting up nicely on the charts for a nice down move in the CRUDE.

The setups are not as clean cut as they are for example on the canadian, pound or euro.

So that is why i need to look at the probabilities, at least that tells me where its very dangerous to be long, which was at 75, 76, and 77, and at least you want to exit your longs, and then wait for the short.

Anyways if indeed crude drops hard, on the morrow or next week, i will let you know where you can send the check. wink

 

 

 

[catch22 + 244]

3 hours ago, NAPHTA said:

This was substantial, thanks! As someone occasionally trading Brent, I think this Friday is a really difficult day. Uptrend is quite intact. Sideway movement is the logically expected development, but precisely therefor, a surprise in either direction might be looming. 

might be looming?id say a sudden movement in either direction is down right inevitable