WTI @ $75.75, headed for $64 - 67

[catch22 + 244]

Risk off sentiment is why- stock market crashing etc... speculators pulling their money out of risky assets inc oil.

When the risk mood swings it could be a great opportunity to go long from, however you must  wait patiently for the long trade as their is no sign of the sell off abating just yet ...

Keep an eye on equities and indexes to use as bell weather for market sentiments. Might be a bigger crash coming yet.... in conditions like these with high volatility- i dont trade. Its too risky and difficult to predict. Gold might be a good place to park your money tho

stay safe people.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

look 75 bucks is a lot for something that cost the saudis $3 to make, so they make 75/3 = .2500% profit. So sometime they run of a winter sale of 10%. It like being a prime member with amazon, once you spend 1 Trilllion they offer you a small discount for halloween. You want oil to go up and up and choke countries like peru, whose main income is asparagus. They barely make 50 cents a pound on that, the farmers maybe 10 cents, and they need to pay like $10 a gallon, so opec runs a special once in a while, and all the traders want the prices to go up, to choke all these emerging markets, thats why Trump want prices to go down, also to help middle class america. Ok so Saudi has some production costs where they pay some princes like 100 mill a year salaries etc, how else could these people afford to own 10 Bentleys, some covered in gold, 10 Bugatti, lambos, private yatchs and cheetahs as pets, harems etc, so the price goes up a bit. but once in a while from the goodness of their hearts they offer some discounts, to the downtrodden.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So yes we almost now reached my 67 target and maybe we can hit 67.5, not sure if they can take it to 64, depends if a big supply come out again, but it looks like at 68 - 67, smart countries, know that oil could go back up to 75 or even higher, they are probably buying as much as they can get, stocking up their reserves for the winter, so once demad comes back in, prices will slowly go back up, lots of people are losing their shirt trying to predict the bottom, and it will only get worse,but not the trader here, since you guys knew ahead of time crude would drop, i dont want to say from whom,  but it wasnt from World Top Oil Trader who said at 75 that the iran sancations would make oil go up even higher, but others who may not have heard of this site, are twiddling their thumbs trying to get in at the bottom, with no success probably loosing their shirts.

So again that is the range how long it will take them, im not privy to that info maybe another 22 days, but i cant know for sure. Once it makes its low, that will be the day, when all the news finally will come out and say the oil prices are dropping, talking head big  floor traders will come out and say, oil will range here for a while. where were these people when oil was at $75, and going down? No one knows, maybe they where playing where is waldo or Probably trying to find a better trading system.

Edited October 19, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Look i need to go to the middle east next week, for a while. So during that time crude will be volatile, i wont be able to help you, just be careful, when it starts shooting up, and all kinds of bullish news comes out, thats the bottom, cant say it any more simpler than that. Again day time and place dont know, wait for the world top trader to come out with a statement, sure he will, why? since a frenzy of buying will happen then and he will know when that is, and that will start to be the bottom.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so crude now at 69, could head down all the way to 67

[Auson + 123]

13 hours ago, catch22 said:

Risk off sentiment is why- stock market crashing etc... speculators pulling their money out of risky assets inc oil.

When the risk mood swings it could be a great opportunity to go long from, however you must  wait patiently for the long trade as their is no sign of the sell off abating just yet ...

Keep an eye on equities and indexes to use as bell weather for market sentiments. Might be a bigger crash coming yet.... in conditions like these with high volatility- i dont trade. Its too risky and difficult to predict. Gold might be a good place to park your money tho

stay safe people.

Catch22,

Many thanks for your wise words I really appreciate your take on all this, however I have recently given up on Gold as a hedge having taken some hefty losses.

I think Gold is just another speculation vehicle these days and as paper gold can just be created and dumped into the market I don't think we will see true price discovery. Also Comex specualtive positions are usually net short.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

well looks like the we wont see 67 today. Seems traders covered their shorts for the week. That doesnt mean we wont see 64-67 this month. But is also likely traders think 70 will be hit again, and that they think 70 will cap the selloff. I dont think the selloff is over. However. Now it looks like it will go back to 69.xx, and hover there, for a while. Problem with this is that its risky to hold oil at 69 for the weekend. AS some news over the weekend could gap down oil prices before it opens. So most likely there was no news to bring down crude further today,traders covered and now the big boys are trying to keep prices above 69 so that they can prevent oil from looking weak for now.

Edited October 19, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[ATK + 355]

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/commodities/oil-prices-edge-up-but-set-for-weekly-loss-on-stock-build-trade-row-3062401.html

Analyst revising their estimates for Iran exports for Oct stating that theit exports have actually increased for this month.

This is what I was talking about earlier how Iran manipulates it's AIS data to trick the media and drive up oil prices.

Question is if this is countries stocking up before sanctions hit or if other countries will just buy iran oil on the black market. We will know Nov 14 when shipping data come out so circle that date

[ATK + 355]

As for price, it could go up, but also could go down, but could also move all around. It could put its left foot in and it's left foot out, move the price around and shake shorts and longs all about. You do a general prediction with an undisclosed timeframe and that's what it's all about! 

The oil "thems" don't want us to have enough rocket fuel to start a moon colony so they want prices high. Luckily I'm friends with the ambassador to the moon and will straighten things, just need to get more dental floss for the ride. JJ gets it!

Hahahaha But forreal, I think Nov 14 will be the day of reckoning that will finally give us an answer about how much Iran's exports could decrease by. Can't wait!

Edited October 19, 2018 by ATK

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

17 minutes ago, ATK said:

As for price, it could go up, but also could go down, but could also move all around. It could put its left foot in and it's left foot out, move the price around and shake shorts and longs all about. You do a general prediction with an undisclosed timeframe and that's what it's all about! 

The oil "thems" don't want us to have enough rocket fuel to start a moon colony so they want prices high. Luckily I'm friends with the ambassador to the moon and will straighten things, just need to get more dental floss for the ride. JJ gets it!

Hahahaha But forreal, I think Nov 14 will be the day of reckoning that will finally give us an answer about how much Iran's exports could decrease by. Can't wait!

Oh man, I'll have what he's drinking!  Hahaha!  Great one, ATK!

[ATK + 355]

15 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Oh man, I'll have what he's drinking!  Hahaha!  Great one, ATK!

Just some thorough analysis I'm giving! Price is moving up like I said, and if it moves down that will be okay because I also said that could happen. When will that happen? Probably a number of time units in the future, you're welcome everyone

of course it all depends on what the "thems" are planning to do about the moon colony, the don't want us mining cheese up their as it could entirely replace fuel for everything on earth

Edited October 19, 2018 by ATK

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So even though people covered their shorts today, i shouldnt focus on every hour. The prices still supposed to head to 64-67. And try and bounce from there.

Edited October 19, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

24 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

So even though people covered their shorts today, i shouldnt focus on every hour. The prices still supposed to head to 64-67. And try and bounce from there.

True if you use stops.

[ATK + 355]

Hmm I would have to agree, the "thems"  definitely don't want us getting that moon cheese.

This is still following my prediction that the price would change in a direction. I can't go into the details of how I came to this the sophisticated and complex conclusion, I'd have to spend years explaining maybe even decades explaining it, but I feel like the price will continue to go into a direction. I will have to update after I admire myself some more about my call 😏

[ATK + 355]

I will be on the moon while JJ is in the middle east, I know I know, how will you trade without our very specific and detailed posts, but just remember that oil will move in a direction and you should be set. I will be back for my parade and praise for giving this beyond godly trading advice, yes godly, for I am above even god's oil trades. 

You may refer to me as "above god oil trader" now

[Keven Tan + 85]

3 hours ago, ATK said:

As for price, it could go up, but also could go down, but could also move all around. It could put its left foot in and it's left foot out, move the price around and shake shorts and longs all about. You do a general prediction with an undisclosed timeframe and that's what it's all about! 

The oil "thems" don't want us to have enough rocket fuel to start a moon colony so they want prices high. Luckily I'm friends with the ambassador to the moon and will straighten things, just need to get more dental floss for the ride. JJ gets it!

Hahahaha But forreal, I think Nov 14 will be the day of reckoning that will finally give us an answer about how much Iran's exports could decrease by. Can't wait!

I remember that you and JJ disagreed each other back not too long ago. Now finally you two seem get along and land on common ground pretty well. By looking at how you guys reacted in oil debating, which enlightens me never getting too surprise of market trends. Hhahah, adorable. Sry, excuse me. 

Still, a lower and more stable oil price is good for the majority group but not for those who are sitting on the oil tank with a big ass cigar and counting $$$.

I am not sure who plays the oil ETF. In general the 3x oil ETF would reflect directly by oil index. DRIP is a 3x bear and it tights with XOP. XOP should be an index positively corresponding to crude. In general, if curde goes up, DRIP tanks, and vice versa. I am surprised that DRIP and crude both go green today. That brings me a signal that oil most likely fall big next week. In my previous post, I made a shot in predicting oil falling to $65ish by end of the month. Let’s pray!!!!!!  😂😂😂🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏

[ATK + 355]

29 minutes ago, Keven Tan said:

I remember that you and JJ disagreed each other back not too long ago. Now finally you two seem get along and land on common ground pretty well. By looking at how you guys reacted in oil debating, which enlightens me never getting too surprise of market trends. Hhahah, adorable. Sry, excuse me. 

Still, a lower and more stable oil price is good for the majority group but not for those who are sitting on the oil tank with a big ass cigar and counting $$$.

I am not sure who plays the oil ETF. In general the 3x oil ETF would reflect directly by oil index. DRIP is a 3x bear and it tights with XOP. XOP should be an index positively corresponding to crude. In general, if curde goes up, DRIP tanks, and vice versa. I am surprised that DRIP and crude both go green today. That brings me a signal that oil most likely fall big next week. In my previous post, I made a shot in predicting oil falling to $65ish by end of the month. Let’s pray!!!!!!  😂😂😂🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏

We still bump heads with one another, but I'm just chalking it up as JJ's personality being well... unique lol

Sometimes he's serious, sometimes he's not. Sometimes he gives detail, sometimes he's very vague. Sometimes he's humble, sometimes he enjoys sniffing his own farts from a wine glass (older south park reference lol).

I will continue to challenge him to make an argument explaining his logic rather than pick a number and say that's where it heading. 

Everyone needs to be challenged from time to time or else we will get comfortable and stop growing our skill sets. JJ even went back and made tweeks to his oil trading program because I called him out so much. It seems to be doing better at least on medium time frames 

Edited October 19, 2018 by ATK

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So due to the fact that everyone is scared about the iran sanctions, as crude reaches 67, fear will set back in and crude could make another spike. However, if there is no sanctions or sanctions are not respected by  other countries, (might happen). So oil should touch 67, range for a while even go lower, then try to make new highs, they will succeed, and then drop it back to 57. Will take months to play out. I see it happening in those directions.

Edited October 19, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[ATK + 355]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

So due to the fact that everyone is scared about the iran sanctions, as crude reaches 67, fear will set back in and crude could make another spike. However, if there is no sanctions or sanctions are not respected by  other countries, (might happen). So oil should touch 67, range for a while even go lower, then try to make new highs, they will succeed, and then drop it back to 57. Will take months to play out. I see it happening in those directions.

Nov 14 is the day we will know, I will post the shipping data here

[catch22 + 244]

Alot will depend on Iran's actions and rhetoric as the sanction enforcement date approaches and then passes... if they start sabre rattling and trump takes their bait- it will panic the market and send it sky high again... you dont know what they will say or when they will say it- you only know that just that simple exchange of words between 2 people will have more effect on the oio market than any shipping data or stockpiles etc- this you can be sure of and its completely unpredictable. Many would argue that iran is predictable and will start talking tough rather than bow to America as they see it... its a scary time to be short oil knowing that bomb is ready to drop in the blink of an eye... nothing like a good war ( or risk of a war) to drive up prices

 

[Cowpoke + 70]

In summary, the price of oil is going to go up, but it could also go down before it goes back up. Then it may trade sideways a bit before changing direction.

Now the price will change direction AFTER it goes the other way but not before then. So if you see this price heading in one direction up or down, rest assured it will eventually change.

You can bet on that.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

no cpoke. Crude has been going down since 73, and is going down. Now once it finishes going down at about 67. It will range, and you are right that will be up and down. For about 20 days, by Novermber 12th, Crude will start to go up fast and could take out 80s. But even while it goes down, it is not in a straight line, same when it goes up. So yes crude does go up and down, which is why must cant time it correclty.

[McxCommodityResearch + 5]

Crude oil trading doesn't depends on any news and inventory.its a psychological level based game.

selling crude oil from 75$,while there was lots of noises in market of supply glut and iran sanction.

Crude Oil Trading Ideas

[NatGasDude + 94]

Doing an analysis here using volume weighted MACD, 14 and 32 day RSI, and paying close attention to sideways trading 'battle grounds' for Brent of 76.50 (First half of September),  81 (2nd half of September), 85 (first week of October), and 80 (middle of October-today).

There was strong momentum with both RSI and volume weighted MACD from Sept 7th until the 25th where we had some sideways price action had begun, but lower lows of RSI from the 25th to the 30th. That was my first bearish red flag. The 2nd red flag was when buying pressure began to subside on Oct 4th, and from that point, there were lower lows of RSI 14, as well as two negative cycles of MACD until the 11th.

Price action shows lower lows from Oct 11th to 20th, however, both MACD and RSI indicate HIGHER LOWS after a double bottom of RSI-14 = 16, indicating a reversal of the early month profit taking. Next week will either confirm or deny the reversal with an attempt at the previous battle ground of 81.50, right now it is locked in at 80.

Buying pressure is gradually reversing the indicators, and I believe that Brent will trade sideways and continue a series of 1-2 dollar mini breakouts into November.

 I believe that traders will be content with the profit taking from the past 2 weeks and price will get back on the gradual ascending channel.

I'm not trading CFD's, just Brent and WTI weighted oil trusts and E&P's (ROYT (Pacific Coast oil trust), PER (Sandridge Permian), VNOM (Viper Energy Partners, MLP of Diamondback), GTE (Gran Tierra Energy Colombia), PBR (Petrobras Brazil)) Currently doubling down on VNOM prior to earnings report.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Natgdude. I hope you do realize that any serious large trader, doesnt use indicators, indicators is what the "fly by night get rich quick guys on the net teach". The serious  players play big in the billions and move the markets not when the macd is bullish, they are more likely to move the market after eating 1 or 2 macds, and they found out the hard way, that indicators, is just as good as a flip of a coin. Actually at least a flip of a coin is 50%, indicators have much lower probabilities.However, having said that, in the 70s indicators did have their place, they where still new, computers where not used for trading, so indicators back then gave certain people an edge, today that edge is long long gone and extinct, just like the dinosaurs.

Edited October 21, 2018 by Top Oil Trader