WTI @ $75.75, headed for $64 - 67

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

8 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Natgdude. I hope you do realize that any serious large trader, doesnt use indicators, indicators is what the "fly by night get rick quick guys on the net teach". The serious  players play big in the billions and move the markets not when the macd is bullish, they are more likely to move the market after eating 1 or 2 macds, and they found out the hard way, that indicators, is just as good as a flip of a coin. Actually at least a flip of a coin is 50%, indicators have much lower probabilities.However, having said that, in the 70s indicators did have their place, they where still new, computers where not used for trading, so indicators back then gave certain people an edge, today that edge is long long gone and extinct, just like the dinosaurs.

Interesting statement, JJ.  This has been a hard pill for me to swallow in the last year as I have brought myself back into the trading world, after a roughly 18 year break.  As the Buick and/or Oldsmobile ads said some 20 years ago:  This is not your father's Buick/Oldsmobile (depending on the commercial).  So it is now that these are not your father's markets.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well. What happens is, people come up with new ideas to trade, they are mass marketed and eventually fade into the market, like some silly stuff, like rsi, macd, or bollinger band, which i call the bunkers bands, i usually have my own names for each one, RSI is SCFI, macd, macds, (big mac), renko is dingo, point and figure is go figure, etc etc. You need a little fun when you trade.and last but not least, candle sticks is candle  tricks, and then when they enter a trade that make you lose you shirt, i call that not candle sitcks but lights out..

Edited October 22, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

But nat if it works for you, by all means, be my guest.

[NatGasDude + 94]

Did you lose your shirt betting on that $64 WTI? It's been 3 weeks and we may not even hit 67, Hurricane Michael and all...

I don't see crude breaking the up channel any time soon, though. 5 dollar corrections have come and gone 5 times this year.

 

 

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Basically what i see is this, yes a bounce is possible from the 60s, so say from 67 or 64, but also what is possible a collapse even further down to 59. And its a hard call, see its now the winter and everyone needs oil soon, so demand will move up, but what if countries get smart and get oit in the black market, then basically oil go go in a freefall. I see 2 scenarios oil down lower to my earlier targets, bounce back into trend, or trend collapses and oil goes into some freefall they will try to stop. This is where trading is ticky, since the range is now expanding it was 73 and down to 68. so now when you enter you are messed up since it can spike 1 buck up or down randomly on any made up news. Had you shorted at 72-73 when i first offered the short, now you would be sitting pretty and you could easily have ridden out the storm. I do think bulls, (not the smart ones) will try to get back long here.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Nat that chart my friend is what? a classic head and shoulder, which means down, way down.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Ok where is this thing going now. Is it going to drive people crazy again. Well. wti is going for the coupe de grace, but may try and go for 70 first. i did say we would hit 69.40 this month so far so good. Would extend that a big and say we even hit 67.xx this week. At that point someone big is gonna have to pull out all stops and try and support it from crashing. It looks like initially they will have some support, at about this time i expect the big guns to come out and say were headed for 80. Remember they speak from the demand they see comming in from china and europe at these lower prices, and from past experience, i only speak from the chart i see. But remember in essence they can only see what is immediately in front of them, and this played out in the past,  they wont be able to really see whats coming. Thats where i come in. I say to the boys, leave the game to the grown ups

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

The first time i saw candles in steve nissons book, and then saw the guy in a video. I said what a bunch of baloney. Aslo steve never struck me as a trader, but more as a nerd knowing where the books belong in a libar especially the sections about UFOs. Ok it does have advantages, but once he got into all those candles patterns and they where infinite it became obvious this was a lot of scrap, added the s, to be polite.

But for some reason people swear by it, even though the market swears they cant make money. Every time i look at it i get headaches, since to me its just extra noise, not needed, and you might think it gives you an edge, yes an edge to jump of a cliff, yes in the 1 min or 5 min chart. But to make any longterm predictions based on candles is just to me a great guessing game, where people can come up with an infinite amount of setups. Which of the 100s you want to use, flip a coin 1 out the 100s i guess does work, which gives it a 1% chance this stuff works.  Indeed there are some cool ones, all with cool names, but just for illusions of grandor. 3 black crows, hanging man (woman) to be politically correct, piercing candle or piercing headache, etc etc, Yes some have some value, but its all subjective. Thand candle, is that a hanging man, a spinning top, or a carrot top. Pick one.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so i am trying very hard to see if i can come up with the intraday system to  trade crude, at first i thought it to be impossible. I think it is basically trying to predict the hour rain will start during the day. But someone has to do it.  So i wil attempt to do it today. So here is the trade, I wont give the target since you need to figure that out yourself when you see the move is exhausted, if you cant tell that yet, i would try and read some book on trading, maybe a basic book like trading for dummies. Not implying you are a dummy if you read this book, but i think the one who wrote it was not a dummy, so that is a good start, did not read this book, but i have read many dummy books, how do you think i got where i am? Anyways back to the daytrade for crude. Will try and make it as safe a possible with what i hope is a low risk trade. Problem i find with crude you need to use massive stops, due to its being on steroids and bipolar most of the time. So entry is "Short @ 69.10, Stop Loss 69.58, Target 68.25 or 68.1. Oh Crude could hit 70 yes, but if it goes there, good, im not looking to chase, and there will be no trade. I could look also for the long but again, my trading goes in a certain way, that makes sense for my way of trading. Couldnt care less if others will see this as a long if it breaks to upside.

[Osama + 248]

14 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

so i am trying very hard to see if i can come up with the intraday system to  trade crude, at first i thought it to be impossible. I think it is basically trying to predict the hour rain will start during the day. But someone has to do it.  So i wil attempt to do it today. So here is the trade, I wont give the target since you need to figure that out yourself when you see the move is exhausted, if you cant tell that yet, i would try and read some book on trading, maybe a basic book like trading for dummies. Not implying you are a dummy if you read this book, but i think the one who wrote it was not a dummy, so that is a good start, did not read this book, but i have read many dummy books, how do you think i got where i am? Anyways back to the daytrade for crude. Will try and make it as safe a possible with what i hope is a low risk trade. Problem i find with crude you need to use massive stops, due to its being on steroids and bipolar most of the time. So entry is "Short @ 69.10, Stop Loss 69.58, Target 68.25 or 68.1. Oh Crude could hit 70 yes, but if it goes there, good, im not looking to chase, and there will be no trade. I could look also for the long but again, my trading goes in a certain way, that makes sense for my way of trading. Couldnt care less if others will see this as a long if it breaks to upside.

Interesting.

I think, regarding one of the points you mentioned in your comments, that to safe crude from crashing below $65, investors may use Kashoggi's case as a support....and yes the growing demand as well.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Osama yes the emerging markets will use the selloff in crude to buy as much as they can, since basically the countries are scared the iran sanctions will bring crude to 100. Since they dont have someone like me, who would tell them to take it easy and relax, they have to just follow the emotions of their so called economists, or the emotions of the government who dont want their countries to suffer. So we are speaking about india, pakistan, bangladesh, s africa, even china, and europe. And those countries could cause crude from crashing to below the pre historic prices. If countries and companies would just wake up they could save billions from not following their fears.

[McxCommodityResearch + 5]

/Crude Oil Trading Tips

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

abiskek, i see what you say follows indeed a good track.

Edited October 22, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[McxCommodityResearch + 5]

hello JJ,if you read properly i suggested to go short on pullback.i explained key levels as well.

thanks for your valuable suggestions and i will keep this in my mind while writing my next article.

my trade is very simple....i want price to hit 70.40$ to go short with stop loss 71$

or i will wait to sustain below 69.50$ to go short again with sl 70.80$.

target is same 68.50$,67.50$ and 64.50$.

read my previous reports as well and plzz comment your ideas.

Crude Oil TRading Ideas

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Mcx i sometimes joke, dont take what i say personal. Just trying to be in the game, and its very hard. so if your target is 64 thats great, though thats my extreme target my real target is  67 first and only then 64, but for now i first expect a bounce of 67, if that is not it, then further down she goeth. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So indeed would say at 69.30 high probabil entry we now move further down to 68.xx lower level.That level should be taken out in NEW YORK session, when all the US oil producers are at their desks in full swing. Of course these guys run 24/7 so at least this will happen when the ceo  come in and have their coffee, and look at the prices and say, not WTI, but WTF.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 minute ago, Top Oil Trader said:

So indeed would say at 69.30 high probabil entry we now move further down to 68.xx lower level.That level should be taken out in NEW YORK session, when all the US oil producers are at their desks in full swing. Of course these guys run 24/7 so at least this will happen when the ceo  come in and have their coffee, and look at the prices and say, not WTI, but WTF.

You can make WTI work for WTF.  Sort of a cleaned up version.  

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Man where was I, when i was trying to learn how to trade, all i had was former 2nd grade teachers, how took up the profession to teach others how to trade and amass millions, by faking it, until they where eventually found out, and had to reduce their 6k class to 50 bucks. The madoffs of trading teachers.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

And I don't like this British fellow, Brent, either.  Always looking down on the American oil, WTI/WTF!  What's up with that?  It's time for WTI to stand up to Brent!  Show him what we're made of.  Somebody call Donald and remind him American oil needs to be Great Again!

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Yes its embarrassing how the world laughs at trump

Edited October 22, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Well my daytrading trade is in play. Never have i seen anything move with such speed, and so many fakes as crude. its vicious

Edited October 22, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Yes its embarrassing how the world laughs at trump

I agree, the world should be embarrassed for laughing at the President of the United States.  Once any one of them rises above, then they can think about self righteousness.

 

[McxCommodityResearch + 5]

jj see my level.....

and check where is wti crude oil trading now....

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

There is hope for us, at least 1 person agrees with me.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I think the edge i discovered in trading, is that i now know when prices will go over the edge.