WTI @ $75.75, headed for $64 - 67

[Auson + 123]

3 minutes ago, ATK said:

I was aactually surprised how low we got yesterday, but regardless, a 5th straight week of crude builds is pretty bearish and again goes against the bullish narrative we've been hearing the past few months of being in a "tight" oil market.

Yes its bearish but the I think they make the narrative up as they go along.

I think the builds mean its more likely Trump will play hard with the Iran Sanctions.

Lots of green on Brent right now $76.69

[catch22 + 244]

we may have found a temporary bottom at psychological level round number of $66.00 on WTI... bounced off just below there and so far its holding above and making a steady climb but it wont be confirmed until after wall street closes for the day... could easily be sold off again in the US session, we will wait and see - too risky to trade either direction at the moment. Watch the stock market indicies  aswell today - it will tell you about the general sentiment. so far i am liking the gradual and rather trendy price movements lately - not nearly as choppy as it has been over the last few weeks and months...

[Rodent + 1,424]

Hold onto your hats, folks! EIA confirms crude oil build today of 6.3 million. Down, down, down we go!

[fOILed + 9]

 I was expecting 5-7 mil build, and was right on target... wasnt expecting price to hold/trickle up after the build though. 

I'm expecting to see 65.70 at some point today... so we probably hit 69

 

[Auson + 123]

1 hour ago, catch22 said:

we may have found a temporary bottom at psychological level round number of $66.00 on WTI... bounced off just below there and so far its holding above and making a steady climb but it wont be confirmed until after wall street closes for the day... could easily be sold off again in the US session, we will wait and see - too risky to trade either direction at the moment. Watch the stock market indicies  aswell today - it will tell you about the general sentiment. so far i am liking the gradual and rather trendy price movements lately - not nearly as choppy as it has been over the last few weeks and months...

catch22,

I don't disagree thats its too risky to trade either direction. However EIA just reported an over all product draw despite the crude build so I don't think we are going to see further falls this week.

[Osama + 248]

29 minutes ago, Rodent said:

Hold onto your hats, folks! EIA confirms crude oil build today of 6.3 million. Down, down, down we go!

But a gasoline withdraw has offset the effect. I was hoping to see $65.xx as well

[Rodent + 1,424]

Just now, Osama said:

But a gasoline withdraw has offset the effect. I was hoping to see $65.xx as well

Yeah, and I guess traders are viewing the crude build like, "Oh well, it's better than the 9 mil+ build that the API forecast yesterday. Refinery runs were down so gasoline draw/crude build makes sense.

As for the Iran-sky-is-falling factor that has so far buoyed prices in the last month or so, I think people may be growing somewhat numb to it.  

[Auson + 123]

1 minute ago, Osama said:

But a gasoline withdraw has offset the effect. I was hoping to see $65.xx as well

Osama,

Gasoline and Commercial draw plus increased gasoline imports. Its a mixed bag

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

50 minutes ago, Rodent said:

As for the Iran-sky-is-falling factor that has so far buoyed prices in the last month or so, I think people may be growing somewhat numb to it.  

IRANIAN SANCTIONS will be back!  

[Rodent + 1,424]

Just now, Dan Warnick said:

IRANIAN SANCTIONS will be back!  

Reports surfaced today that some China refiners are no longer taking Iran crude. And if Iran can't count on China, not sure who they can count on to sell their oil to. So you are probably right.

YAY on your POWER USER status!

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

24 minutes ago, Rodent said:

YAY on your POWER USER status!

Hadn't noticed that.  Do I get a little barrel of oil?  LOL!

Please....(I really do want one )

Edited October 24, 2018 by Dan Warnick
Added "Please"

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

7 minutes ago, Rodent said:

Reports surfaced today that some China refiners are no longer taking Iran crude. And if Iran can't count on China, not sure who they can count on to sell their oil to. So you are probably right.

YAY on your POWER USER status!

On a serious note, apparently there has been a serious slow down in the number of Chinese people traveling, both domestically and abroad, in the last couple of months.  This has not only affected the travel industry in China, but the tourism industries of their neighboring countries as well, as Chinese tour companies have seen a large decline in the number of groups booking trips outside China.

I'm hearing of tour companies going out of business and even serious distress in parts of the transportation sector = Demand is dropping in China and the region.  China may be backing out of Iranian oil shipments due to the fact that demand is actually down enough that they don't need the headache.  Whatever the reason, it will make Washington happy and Iran....not so happy, but at least they can tell the Iranians that it's not because of IRANIAN SANCTIONS!

@Osama

[Osama + 248]

40 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

On a serious note, apparently there has been a serious slow down in the number of Chinese people traveling, both domestically and abroad, in the last couple of months.  This has not only affected the travel industry in China, but the tourism industries of their neighboring countries as well, as Chinese tour companies have seen a large decline in the number of groups booking trips outside China.

I'm hearing of tour companies going out of business and even serious distress in parts of the transportation sector = Demand is dropping in China and the region.  China may be backing out of Iranian oil shipments due to the fact that demand is actually down enough that they don't need the headache.  Whatever the reason, it will make Washington happy and Iran....not so happy, but at least they can tell the Iranians that it's not because of IRANIAN SANCTIONS!

@Osama

An interesting perspective!! And I agree with you that very soon IRANIAN SANCTIONS will be back. 

Demand is slowing down..yes...and for the traders to spin this as an effect of IRANIAN SANCTIONS....is indeed expected.

 

 

 

 

[Bradtech + 3]

inventory build of close to 10 million barrels. Oil market being flooded by oil. Saudi's saying they replaced Iranian oil.  Time for oil prices to rise because of IRANIAN SANCTIONS. 

 

 

[Osama + 248]

2 hours ago, Rodent said:

Yeah, and I guess traders are viewing the crude build like, "Oh well, it's better than the 9 mil+ build that the API forecast yesterday. Refinery runs were down so gasoline draw/crude build makes sense.

As for the Iran-sky-is-falling factor that has so far buoyed prices in the last month or so, I think people may be growing somewhat numb to it.  

I wish.....people would grow numb to IRANIAN SANCTIONS. But...we might see them coming into play---trade--- once again.

[Auson + 123]

49 minutes ago, Bradtech said:

inventory build of close to 10 million barrels. Oil market being flooded by oil. Saudi's saying they replaced Iranian oil.  Time for oil prices to rise because of IRANIAN SANCTIONS. 

 

 

Bradtech where are you getting the 10m build from ? 

I make it a net product draw.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 6.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 422.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% above the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4.8 million barrels last week and are about 6% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.3 million barrels last week and are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.3 million barrels last week and are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 8.0 million barrels last week

[Keven Tan + 85]

Yes yes yes! As expected! Even though it started with almost 2% gain early today, now it’s finally falling back. 

I would be so satisfied if $64 by end of next week could come true before a so-called resettlement. 

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Quite a sell off for the whole market at the end of the day.  Across the board.  Of course, I'm short on a 3x Bear Index ETF, so this was an excellent day!  Woo-Hoo!!!

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Index futures are continuing the dive in after hours trading.  This is a rout!

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

They're reporting that the Dow and the S&P 500 have wiped out all 2018 gains.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Looks like Tesla had one of its best days, up $23 or 7.8% but not settled for the day yet.

FAANGS took a beating!

I'm going to bed.  What a day.  Who knows what is going to happen tomorrow?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Oil is down a bit, but still not giving much of a hint as to what its direction is going to be next.  My guess is down, but who knows at this point.

[Auson + 123]

Dan,

I think Brent is holding up remarkably well considering the US sell off.

Some bargain stocks on the FTSE this week especially if you have the mighty US Dollar.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

2 minutes ago, Auson said:

Dan,

I think Brent is holding up remarkably well considering the US sell off.

Some bargain stocks on the FTSE this week especially if you have the mighty US Dollar.

Hi Auson,

Contrary to what I've seen thrown around on here, and in some places in the media, there is very little correlation between what's happening in the markets right now and the price of oil.  There is one correlation and that is when a country is in trouble financially and their demand goes down as a result of that, lower demand = lower oil prices.  Now, if it's a small country, that won't affect the price of oil too much; bigger more developed countries will have more impact.

I would also be very careful listening to the spin that is coming out that people should buy on the dip, or that there are bargain stocks, any of them.  Now, let's clarify a bit:  if a person wants to buy a given stock for a short term rise, that is certainly possible but it comes with all the normal inherent risks (picking the right company at exactly the right time, etc.).  But, since the overall markets are moving together, more or less, one could buy the overall indexes with hopes for a short term rise before the next precipitous drop.  Do not get suckered into holding long positions for any long term bets, unless long term means 10 years and even then you would be buying at much too high of a price.  All markets are in correction mode right now and, as happens every cycle, people don't seem to get it until a year or two has gone by and we are at the bottom.  People will never be told, have never been told, that they should sell their stocks and either stay out or short sell into the markets.  This time is no different.    To wit: yesterday marked the loss of all 2018 gains (we're almost in NOVEMBER!) for the Dow and the S&P.  These markets are in trouble, housing is in trouble, the banks are in trouble, corporations are in trouble.  Almost all the gains for the last few years have come from stock buy backs.  Stock buy backs are good for existing shareholders all the way until they fizzle and a correction sets in, but anybody buying into a company because of "earnings" over the last few years is being tricked by share buy backs, not innovation or any of the normal solid reasons companies gain in value.  There are a few, sure, but not many.  The crash that started yesterday will probably find its bottom after the indexes lose about 10%, then "rally", (if you can call it that; more like sucker's bounce) up 5-7% over the next week or two, and then crash down 10% again.  Rinse and repeat until all the indexes are down to 30-40% of their highs.  At that point we will be near the bottom and we can start to think about long term "long" investments again.

Of course, that's just my opinion.  I could be wrong.

[Auson + 123]

Hi Dan,

Thanks for your lengthy synopsis, I hear you regarding the stock buy backs. But I don't see things as being quite that bad.. yet.

The bargains I referred to on the FTSE are already down 30, 40 or even 50% from their highs

and in USD where are we an extra 20 or 30% discount from where GBP sat before Brexit.

All the best.