Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 25, 2018 You see how this works? Yesterday the Dow gets hammered with a -600 down day, and then today you run it back up 275 and call it a rally (and whisper that yesterday was just a hiccup), and then do it again, and again.... In a year from now everybody starts looking at the trend of the Dow and the other indexes and says "hey, that trend is actually down". Then the media tells you don't worry about that, it's just a small correction. Hmmm. And the headlines are incredible. I saw one yesterday that said something like Home Prices Sharply Down and the first sentence in the article said home prices are down the most since a LAST TUESDAY! Oh, you gotta love it. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rodent + 1,424 October 25, 2018 1 hour ago, Dan Warnick said: the first sentence in the article said home prices are down the most since a LAST TUESDAY! Oh, you gotta love it. Anything to get that click! "Tell me how you measure me and I will tell you how I will behave. If you measure me in an illogical way… do not complain about illogical behavior…" - Goldratt 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rimantas Venckus + 1 October 25, 2018 Yes, may be for short time. Target is 68 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 25, 2018 1 hour ago, Rimantas Venckus said: Yes, may be for short time. Target is 68 Would you mind breaking down what you are showing us? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rodent + 1,424 October 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said: Would you mind breaking down what you are showing us? Thank you for taking one for the team, Dan. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 25, 2018 4 hours ago, Dan Warnick said: You see how this works? Yesterday the Dow gets hammered with a -600 down day, and then today you run it back up 275 and call it a rally (and whisper that yesterday was just a hiccup), and then do it again, and again So, at the end of extended hours trading, the Dow was up 243 on the day. Not bad: 600 down, 243 up. And the headline on Bloomberg: Stocks Roar Back, Erasing Most of Yesterday’s Loss It's all about the headline, I guess. Numbers, meh. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rodent + 1,424 October 25, 2018 1 hour ago, Dan Warnick said: So, at the end of extended hours trading, the Dow was up 243 on the day. Not bad: 600 down, 243 up. And the headline on Bloomberg: Stocks Roar Back, Erasing Most of Yesterday’s Loss It's all about the headline, I guess. Numbers, meh. No reason to get all bogged down with numbers, Dan. WTI down a half percent, with Brent up a percent. The spread's getting wider; I think I might be in the running for getting the spread right in the Great Oil Price Challenge!! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn October 26, 2018 (edited) 3 bear flag patterns in a row, surely it wont repeat a 4th time?!? If your feeling bullish - a buy stop above the range box may prove worthwhile. If your feeling bearish - a sell stop below the range may prove worthwhile. Personally i prefer to wait for the price action to break 1 way of the other before placing the order so that i can see how strong the move is in real time. Since we have had a rather dramatic week in the equities markets - investors may not be in the mood to take risks before the weekend so it may simply stay in range. But there is a chance it will make a break before the weekend hence im putting this up now... The beauty of this setup is that you dont have to predict up or down, it doesnt matter which way it goes. you have the opportunity to trade it long or short... you simply need to wait for the break and then go with it... Edited October 26, 2018 by catch22 2 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 26, 2018 6 minutes ago, catch22 said: 3 bear flag patterns in a row, surely it wont repeat a 4th time?!? If your feeling bullish - a buy stop above the range box may prove worthwhile. If your feeling bearish - a sell stop below the range may prove worthwhile. Personally i prefer to wait for the price action to break 1 way of the other before placing the order so that i can see how strong the move is in real time. Is that a currency exchange rate chart? Which currency? I can see USD but don't recognize the other one. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn October 26, 2018 (edited) no its West texas intermediate / USD Dan... the symbol for the contract i trade is XTI- futures CFD instrument. Edited October 26, 2018 by catch22 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, catch22 said: no its WTI/USD Dan... Aha! Nice chart. I've never seen one that nice. It provides an almost completely different graphic than the free charts I'm used to. Nice. Ok, so you've given your thoughts on entry points to both the upside and the downside, depending on what direction one might be inclined to believe WTI is going; and you've told us that you will wait for price action breaking away before you will be placing any order, a strategy you have shared before and one that seems sound. Thanks for sharing. I'm not trading oil right now, but if I was I'm sure I would ask you to come back on here when you see the price committing to the up or downside and letting us know that you may be entering a trade. Would you mind doing so? Thanks again! 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 26, 2018 23 minutes ago, catch22 said: no its West texas intermediate / USD Dan... the symbol for the contract i trade is XTI- futures CFD instrument. I used to trade futures years ago, so this is very interesting for me. When you say WTI/USD, is there a WTI/(something else)? GBP, AUD, CNY, etc.? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn October 26, 2018 (edited) sure dan - the thing is- normally these breaks happen during the US session which is when im sleeping over here in australia. Sometimes it happens in the london session which im awake for and can catch it there. But i often miss opportunities like this simply due to my timezone... i could make use of pending orders - but this means i cannot view price action in real time and see the strength of the move which helps to avoid a gradual move which fills the order but then retraces for a loss. Basically im looking for a very strong move to confirm a breakout. Big candles at least 2 or 3 in a row, increasing in size and with accompanying volumes. I cant see that with a pending order whilst im asleep As to other instruments - it really depends on what your broker offers. I can only trade it against the USD - hence petro dollar. But some brokers may allow other denominations im not sure. I can trade CFDs on other commodities such as gold and silver against the EUR for example - but not Brent or WTI - my broker only has instruments for these in USD pairings. Edited October 26, 2018 by catch22 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, catch22 said: sure dan - the thing is- normally these breaks happen during the US session which is when im sleeping over here in australia. Sometimes it happens in the london session which im aware for and can catch it there. But i often miss opportunities like this simply due to my timezone... i could make use of pending orders - but this means i cannot view price action in real time and see the strength of the move which helps to avoid a gradual move which fills the order but then retraces for a loss. Basically im looking for a very strong move to confirm a breakout. Big candles at least 2 or 3 in a row, increasing in size and with accompanying volumes. I cant see that with a pending order whilst im asleep Yeah, I get that and understand. I'm in Thailand and can only trade the U.S. markets, so I spend many nights going to bed at 3 a.m., which is the local time the U.S. markets close. Normally I don't need to be watching all the time though since I'm only trading ETFs these days. I buy options contracts with various expiry dates and can let them ride most of the time, but I don't like to use stop losses so I have to be on top of them if/when they get near my targets, or at least are making enough money that I decide to close and take profits. Or to get out while the getting is good too! Thanks again for sharing. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
catch22 + 244 nn October 26, 2018 If you wanted to trade oil against another currency tho - you can simply combine the CFD on oil in USD with another CFD of, say EURUSD and then effectively you will have a position the same as WTI/EUR for example. Provided you match the contract lots sizes with equal value the result should be no different. So you might want 1000 barrel of oil contract against the EUR but your broker doesnt offer that instrument. So you take a 1000 barrel contract of WTI in USD which will be about $67k USD contract value. Then you also take a EURUSD contract with a lot size of $67k USD which would be approx $55k EUR (not doing accurate math here). This would equal a 0.55lot size contract on EURUSD forex CFD in addition to the 1 std contract of 1000bbl WTI to build the same position as a single contract of WTI in EUR... You could apply the same reasoning to anything really 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 26, 2018 @Osama You might get your 65 today. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ATK + 355 AK October 26, 2018 (edited) Anybody watching USOIL right now? Someone is making is making it jump back and forth 30 cents and volume is largely nto changing Been a very strange trading day today lol Edited October 26, 2018 by ATK Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 26, 2018 16 minutes ago, ATK said: Anybody watching USOIL right now? Someone is making is making it jump back and forth 30 cents and volume is largely nto changing Been a very strange trading day today lol Hey ATK. I've been watching. Oil is, what's the term, ranging? At least it appears that way. Doesn't know which way to go, which is kind of why Catch said he'd wait until it made a clear break. Might need some kind of clear event on the globe to get it moving, or else it will eventually succumb to normal market forces, like supply and demand. Heh-heh. The other major markets are acting the way I'd hoped for, so I got to close out with a tidy profit a little while ago (Inverse ETF bear X3). It looks like the indexes are going to climb back up to some extent for the rest of the day, but there's no telling for sure recently. Have to watch and see. Have a great weekend! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 26, 2018 5 hours ago, Dan Warnick said: @Osama You might get your 65 today. Oil looks like it may stay in a range today @Osama so you might have to wait until early next week. Good luck, hope you make some money on your trade. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ATK + 355 AK October 26, 2018 9 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said: Hey ATK. I've been watching. Oil is, what's the term, ranging? At least it appears that way. Doesn't know which way to go, which is kind of why Catch said he'd wait until it made a clear break. Might need some kind of clear event on the globe to get it moving, or else it will eventually succumb to normal market forces, like supply and demand. Heh-heh. The other major markets are acting the way I'd hoped for, so I got to close out with a tidy profit a little while ago (Inverse ETF bear X3). It looks like the indexes are going to climb back up to some extent for the rest of the day, but there's no telling for sure recently. Have to watch and see. Have a great weekend! I know that we are range trading but volume sees very low for today, look at the 1 min chart and check out those massive candles, pretty bizarre. I'm wondering if it's a bot that was fucking with other bots Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 26, 2018 9 minutes ago, ATK said: I know that we are range trading but volume sees very low for today, look at the 1 min chart and check out those massive candles, pretty bizarre. I'm wondering if it's a bot that was fucking with other bots Could be a battle of the bots. See the flames, burning off the natgas? Heh-heh! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rodent + 1,424 October 26, 2018 Rig count out in a half hour or so, may see some temporary moves leading up to and right after. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Warnick + 6,100 October 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rodent said: Rig count out in a half hour or so, may see some temporary moves leading up to and right after. Does that count platforms, or shale rigs, or what? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rodent + 1,424 October 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said: Does that count platforms, or shale rigs, or what? I'M SO GLAD YOU ASKED!!!! I love tracking the rig count and get excited when someone is excited with me. Okay, so maybe you're not exactly excited... Rig count includes "the number of drilling rigs actively exploring for or developing oil or natural gas in the United States and Canada...To be counted as active a rig must be on location and be drilling or 'turning to the right'. A rig is considered active from the moment the well is 'spudded' until it reaches target depth or 'TD'. Rigs that are in transit from one location to another, rigging up or being used in non-drilling activities such as workovers, completions or production testing, are NOT counted as active" 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ATK + 355 AK October 26, 2018 Not really an ideal trading environment for oil right now, on one end you have Iranian sanctions being implemented in the next 9 days and on the other you have a volatile equities market with rolling selloffs. Oil is smack dab in the middle with bulls and bears pulling from both directions 2 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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