WTI @ $75.75, headed for $64 - 67

[Rodent + 1,424]

Just now, ATK said:

Not really an ideal trading environment for oil right now, on one end you have Iranian sanctions being implemented in the next 9 days and on the other you have a volatile equities market with rolling selloffs. Oil is smack dab in the middle with bulls and bears pulling from both directions 

Exactly. Markets are confused, operating based on fear of either scenario.

[ATK + 355]

4 minutes ago, Rodent said:

Exactly. Markets are confused, operating based on fear of either scenario.

This is where people lose the most money trying to figure out a direction. It's best to just sit and wait as Catch22 has said 

[Rodent + 1,424]

Not much movement on rigs. +1 for the US, +9 for Canada. 

[ATK + 355]

Might close above the downtrend line on the 4hr

Correction: we did close above it

Edited October 26, 2018 by ATK

[catch22 + 244]

OK so upon looking back at what happened at end of week whilst i was sleeping- the price almost broke out at the top of the range but then slid back down into range again. This is exactly why i wait for a strong break well above the resistance or support line as otherwise you can be caught in the wrong side of a reversal. The best way of knowing is to watch the price action.

Equities still sliding downwards so the market does not have confidence in making risky speculation on oil for now... 

The range pattern is still valid tho- look for a clear break upwards which will occur around $68.00. Or a clear break below $66.00.

Some may attempt to trade the range , buying near $66.30 or selling near $67.80 , but beware of the spike reversals near the range extremities which can lead to losses. I dont like the risk of that typee of setup and only take higher probability setups of the actual range breakout. You wont get as many points in the move as its a late entry- but its much higher probability. So im waiting for that and hope im awake when it happens.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

been really busy since tuesday, no time to trade. no time to even look at the prices. finally have some time now to set up this new laptop, but still need lots of files before im ready over here. I hope u guys made some money, couple of hours will check to see what is going on. im using mini laptops so not sure i will be to see to much info but will give it a try. I saw lots of bad news in the us, still havent gotten to the bottom of it, but if i can say one thing, this will be a historic mid terms. wont be there for it, but all i can say it go out vote, for whomever you wish.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

just getting things setup here, looks BAD. Not sure what is going on whats making oil prices so depressed, but future looks bleak, Not sure if i want to throw out the next trade setup, last time it got me in hot water, not because i was wrong, like i said last month by now my setups are 2nd to none, both for the long term and intraday setups. But lets keep it short prices are trying to go up, but it will have a really really hard time, keeping any gains.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

just getting things setup here, looks BAD. Not sure what is going on whats making oil prices so depressed, but future looks bleak, Not sure if i want to throw out the next trade setup, last time it got me in hot water, not because i was wrong, like i said last month by now my setups are 2nd to none, both for the long term and intraday setups. so although i think wti can still drop, this point here, will be the most difficult part to trade. I think in about 2 weeks, you will see why. In other words since i know what is comming next but not when, i can simply chose to stay out, and when i see they are staring the move, simply go with them. Once they do their move, eventually everyone gets in the act, some later than others. key here is really to get in a the apex or close to it.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so now trading wti intraday is really easy, but if i give one more accurate entry like the one i gave last time short 67.3 that went to 64.90 i think some people here get really upset, since this is their turf, and they think i kind of just know the general trend of wti, but cant really predict accurately to the day. but indeed its really funny how obvious you can find excellent trades for wti daily, that will move close to 100 points. 

[catch22 + 244]

51 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

so now trading wti intraday is really easy, but if i give one more accurate entry like the one i gave last time short 67.3 that went to 64.90 i think some people here get really upset, since this is their turf, and they think i kind of just know the general trend of wti, but cant really predict accurately to the day. but indeed its really funny how obvious you can find excellent trades for wti daily, that will move close to 100 points. 

JJ id love to cut you some slack here but you continue to not back up any of what you say. You dont give reasons for why the picture looks "bad", or a chart analysis to back it up. Then you go on to say how obvious the setups are and how easy it is to trade.

So please - can i ask that you post your real live trades, on a demo account so that your not at any real risk, and then input your trades as you see fit, and then post a screenshot of the results by pasting it into the thread, and including your analysis of why you took that position and there will be a very credible record of your predictions. This is the only way of establishing your credibility.

If you do this, and win more than you loose over the medium term - you will have my utmost respect and attention and you will have prooved how awesome you are at predicting the price of oil. I believe you will get this respect from many others aswell, and if your really as good as you think you are - you will also be able to generate a significant income from your skills. If you dont know to do this - i can give you many suggestions on how you can monetize this skill without even risking any of your own money to do it.

In addition to gaining credibility - its also a fun exercise to participate in and its also great for learning and evaluating the trades which we can all gain benefit from.

What do you say?

Edited October 29, 2018 by catch22

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so what we are seeing is some kind of consolidation in crude right, but due to the very very poor retracement, almost laughable, wti will eventually hit the 50s. Now so would you short in an up consolidation, only if you know what you are doing. And then only small trades. 

So for example here, i know if i tell people to short at 67.4 and it goes to 66.90 and then hits 70 and then to 55, they will show my trade setup and say look he is wrong. He said to go short at 67.50 and now its 70. So lets try and please those traders. 

So lets do a mini trade so they cant come back and say you see he was wrong. So if wti hits 67.40 go short exit about 67.10. Sorry i have to give you such a small trade, but this is what most scalpers try to figure out, without too much success. So we will try and give them a hand, so they will be a little happy. That doesnt mean wti cant hit 68.xx. But we shall take a chance that if it drops a bit it can drop nother 30 points. And should it reverse, then there is a  possibility of a long only of course if the right things happen, and i will let you figure that one out yourself, lets do that one as a homework assignment. 

 

[catch22 + 244]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

so what we are seeing is some kind of consolidation in crude right, but due to the very very poor retracement, almost laughable, wti will eventually hit the 50s. Now so would you short in an up consolidation, only if you know what you are doing. And then only small trades. 

So for example here, i know if i tell people to short at 67.4 and it goes to 66.90 and then hits 70 and then to 55, they will show my trade setup and say look he is wrong. He said to go short at 67.50 and now its 70. So lets try and please those traders. 

So lets do a mini trade so they cant come back and say you see he was wrong. So if wti hits 67.40 go short exit about 67.10. Sorry i have to give you such a small trade, but this is what most scalpers try to figure out, without too much success. So we will try and give them a hand, so they will be a little happy. That doesnt mean wti cant hit 68.xx. But we shall take a chance that if it drops a bit it can drop nother 30 points. And should it reverse, then there is a  possibility of a long only of course if the right things happen, and i will let you figure that one out yourself, lets do that one as a homework assignment. 

 

Youve caught me at a good time when im home doing paperwork, so i have the time to do your homework for you and it looks like this,

Now i have to assume your going to set a stop loss at 30 pips for a 1:1 RRR? For 1 contract thats a $300 risk for a $300 reward.

Did you know JJ - as viewed on the 15M chart - that this is a bull flag break down setup? or did you derive this by other means?

Its also located at a resistance price where it has broken down twice before. So technically its a reasonable setup...

Normally the bias for a bull flag would be upwards - so the traditional thinking would be waiting for a break high but either high or low break is still valid just probability of breaking up is generally regarded as more likely- of course not guaranteed like any trade...

lets see where it goes and then lets rinse and repeat

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

assignment grade 97%

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

as you can see wti is dropping and may actually drop until 66.50 maybe. but there is some danger of a strong reversal just to clean out short late commmers

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

scalping is a lot harder than swing trading, since your entry has to be spotless, though the moves are much shorter. but here i gave u a good scalp setup, that could possibly turn out to something bigger, but its a hard push

[catch22 + 244]

successful trade +30 pips for $300.

Keep going JJ - they dont have to be just scalping trades either JJ- you can go for long term trades if you want to - just be detailed in the trade by stating your entry, the instrument and size with your SL and TP or any other relevant dynamic levels that you might use. I will simulate what ever trades you care to post on here on my demo account as i have time, although i would encourage you to simply post the setup on the chart as i did earlier as it saves me doing it for you and it will be far more accurate and exactly how you like it to be if you do it yourself.

Now rinse and repeat

[ATK + 355]

9 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

so now trading wti intraday is really easy, but if i give one more accurate entry like the one i gave last time short 67.3 that went to 64.90 i think some people here get really upset, since this is their turf, and they think i kind of just know the general trend of wti, but cant really predict accurately to the day. but indeed its really funny how obvious you can find excellent trades for wti daily, that will move close to 100 points. 

Let's try and keep things civil JJ

[ATK + 355]

5 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

as you can see wti is dropping and may actually drop until 66.50 maybe. but there is some danger of a strong reversal just to clean out short late commmers

Why 66.50 specifically? Wouldn't you want to close a short there instead of 67.10 like you said previously?  Also what is your reasoning for a strong reversal? Is it based on long to short ratios? We're you referring to the current retracement as laughable in your previous post?

What is your entry JJ for a short/long? Where is your exit? Where do you plan on putting stop losses/ are you setting stop losses?

Edited October 29, 2018 by ATK

[ATK + 355]

On 10/23/2018 at 10:52 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

Anyways got out earlier at the low 67, before it hit 67.1, crude is a beast and can switch on you 100 point at any point.

And didn't you say you got out at $67 last week?

Edited October 29, 2018 by ATK

[ATK + 355]

11 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

so now trading wti intraday is really easy, but if i give one more accurate entry like the one i gave last time short 67.3 that went to 64.90 i think some people here get really upset, since this is their turf, and they think i kind of just know the general trend of wti, but cant really predict accurately to the day. but indeed its really funny how obvious you can find excellent trades for wti daily, that will move close to 100 points. 

And my previous post is referring to this comment

[ATK + 355]

New shipping data as well as preinventory numbers I've received makes a potential trade set up as clear as day. Not looking to step on JJ's toes though with his current trade play by play as I know FA isnt looked at favorably. This week's inventory report should be interesting though! (That is if you think the reports hold any weight to them in terms of price movement).

Edited October 29, 2018 by ATK

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

6 minutes ago, ATK said:

New shipping data as well as preinventory numbers I've received makes a potential trade set up as clear as day. Not looking to step on JJ's toes though with his current trade play by play as I know FA isnt looked at favorably. This week's inventory report should be interesting though! (That is if you think the reports hold any weight to them in terms of price movement).

What's your trade set up, then?

[ATK + 355]

5 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

What's your trade set up, then?

I'll private message you what I found

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

4 minutes ago, ATK said:

I'll private message you what I found

Nah.  Put it right out here so we can see which one of you two guys is better at your craft.  It's all mumbo jumbo to me.

[ATK + 355]

4 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Nah.  Put it right out here so we can see which one of you two guys is better at your craft.  It's all mumbo jumbo to me.

It's not me or else my name would be top oil trader

Edit: also too late! Already sent you the message!

Edited October 29, 2018 by ATK