WTI @ $75.75, headed for $64 - 67

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 minutes ago, ATK said:

It's not me or else my name would be top oil trader

Edit: also too late! Already sent you the message!

Well, to quote Catch22:

- just be detailed in the trade by stating your entry, the instrument and size with your SL and TP or any other relevant dynamic levels that you might use. I will simulate what ever trades you care to post on here on my demo account as i have time

If we're lucky, Catch won't mind plotting your trade out too.  Then we can see what happens.

Edit:  But I still don't know why you guys care what the other one's doing.  If I were countering someone that I thought was wrong, I would simply say "I think you're wrong and this is what I'm doing that is right".  Then the future would tell the tale.

Edited October 29, 2018 by Dan Warnick

[Auson + 123]

25 minutes ago, ATK said:

New shipping data as well as preinventory numbers I've received makes a potential trade set up as clear as day. Not looking to step on JJ's toes though with his current trade play by play as I know FA isnt looked at favorably. This week's inventory report should be interesting though! (That is if you think the reports hold any weight to them in terms of price movement).

ATK,

Would the shipping data you have be from Tanker Trackers ?

[ATK + 355]

2 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

Well, to quote Catch22:

- just be detailed in the trade by stating your entry, the instrument and size with your SL and TP or any other relevant dynamic levels that you might use. I will simulate what ever trades you care to post on here on my demo account as i have time

If we're lucky, Catch won't mind plotting your trade out too.  Then we can see what happens.

Already sent you my stuff! 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 minute ago, ATK said:

Already sent you my stuff! 

I'm just winding you up.  But if you want to show, then show out here where someone might find it useful.  Ok?

[ATK + 355]

8 minutes ago, Dan Warnick said:

I'm just winding you up.  But if you want to show, then show out here where someone might find it useful.  Ok?

We could see a build, but also a draw in a number of time units in the future. The build could come first after a draw but only before, if that makes sense

Edit: Just trying to confuse the oil "thems" as they know I know about the moon chesee I talked about last week so now they are tracling every move I make!

Haha I'll post the stuff later lol

Edited October 29, 2018 by ATK

[ATK + 355]

Well looks like Trump is going Nuclear with China and is going to put Tariffs on literally everything. 

Global recession here we come!

[fOILed + 9]

ATK- Your shipping insights seemed to play right into the crude builds we saw last week- are you seeing anything to support, or conflict with, the current expected moderate crude build this week?

[fOILed + 9]

maybe i should have refreshed the page before i sent my message- looks like my question was already posed😧

[ATK + 355]

48 minutes ago, fOILed said:

maybe i should have refreshed the page before i sent my message- looks like my question was already posed😧

I'll post in a little! Hands tied up at the moment!

[Tomasz + 1,608]

New World Bank October 2018  Outlook

Brent oil - previous outlook was from Aprlil

2018 72 (plus 7)

2019 74 (plus 9)

2020 69

 

Edited October 29, 2018 by Tomasz

[ATK + 355]

6 hours ago, fOILed said:

Deleted

Edited October 30, 2018 by ATK

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so as you see a perfect scalp that hardly went against me, hit the target and reversed. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

scalping is a lot harder than swing trading, since your entry has to be spotless, though the moves are much shorter. but here i gave u a good scalp setup, that could possibly turn out to something bigger, but its a hard push

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Im right now in places where the internet is sporadic. So if you have any clue at all about institutional or hedge fund trading, you can probably guess the next big trade. Not when, although u just need good charts for that. but indeed as expected we did have a retrace at the earlier target. These guys are very easy to figure out. but you might need something more complex than price action, candles, indicators or patterns. 

[ATK + 355]

21 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

 So if wti hits 67.40 go short exit about 67.10. Sorry i have to give you such a small trade, but this is what most scalpers try to figure out

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

so as you see a perfect scalp that hardly went against me, hit the target and reversed. 

 

Dude you said to close the short at 67.10 it went to 66.26. I wouldn't say a perfect scalp.

Edited October 30, 2018 by ATK

[catch22 + 244]

8 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Well, to quote Catch22:

- just be detailed in the trade by stating your entry, the instrument and size with your SL and TP or any other relevant dynamic levels that you might use. I will simulate what ever trades you care to post on here on my demo account as i have time

If we're lucky, Catch won't mind plotting your trade out too.  Then we can see what happens.

Edit:  But I still don't know why you guys care what the other one's doing.  If I were countering someone that I thought was wrong, I would simply say "I think you're wrong and this is what I'm doing that is right".  Then the future would tell the tale.

Dan, its not about whos wrong and whos right, or caring what someone else is doing - its about posting something thats meaningful and has a basis to it rather than just pontificating. This way we can we gain some benefit from whats happening and we can all learn about whats happening with the price of oil and what influences the market. We will all gain insights into what went right and when things dont work out, we will learn what went wrong. But all live trades need to be made public or recorded in the demo account for it to work, or one can simply hide all the losses and show all the wins to make it look like they know something the others dont. By being completely transparent, and with no real risk, theres everything to gain and nothing to loose other than our ego's - which is an important thing NOT to have in trading...

By simply guessing or throwing out baseless prices without timeframes or any other supporting reasoning doesnt achieve anything, its a complete waste of time and bandwidth.

I came to this forum to share oil trading setups and ideas with other like minded people as its called oilprice.com, however there seems to be a complete lack of real traders here and im loosing faith in the value of such discussions here. Im making an effort to change that and bring out some useful information to this forum...

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

12 minutes ago, catch22 said:

But all live trades need to be made public or recorded in the demo account for it to work,

Which is what I asked ATK to do.  My comment was not directed at you because you do show your details.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Interesting chart from the quotes page of OilPrice.com:

Almost as if someone has been walking the price down.

[ATK + 355]

11 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Which is what I asked ATK to do.  My comment was not directed at you because you do show your details.

I always post my FA here, I'm about 80% FA and 20% TA. I buy/sell  calls/puts the same week they expire every single week and play the oil reports. Since options are much more complicated in the different ways you can make money (aka selling puts and calls), I don't focus as much on exact price point's and focus more on general trends, the timing of these trends, and how the passage of time affects the value of certain options (time decay aka theta). That being said, I do have exits and entries when I buy some puts/calls. This week, I bought puts for USO with a strike of 14.0, I have xxx contracts I bought when they were 0.07. Depending on how EIA report plays out, I could see USOIL going to $65.22 (S2 Fib pivot point on the 4hr) and in the most extreme case $64.5x but that's if we get all the stars to align for us. 

I've posted more thorough stuff in the past, even calling the bounce to $72, but it mostly just fell to depth ears. 

But yeah I'm with Catch22, this isnt really much of a trading forum. I'll be sticking with reddit and won't get in the way of these detailed and thorough plays

Edit: again my retarded posts get upvoted, but this stuff just goes ignored. I'm done helping you guys, bye

Edited October 30, 2018 by ATK

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

7 minutes ago, ATK said:

I always post my FA here, I'm about 80% FA and 20% TA. I buy/sell  calls/puts the same week they expire every single week and play the oil reports. Since options are much more complicated in the different ways you can make money (aka selling puts and calls), I don't focus as much on exact price point's and focus more on general trends, the timing of these trends, and how the passage of time affects the value of certain options (time decay aka theta). That being said, I do have exits and entries when I buy some puts/calls. This week, I bought puts for USO with a strike of 14.0, I have xxx contracts I bought when they were 0.07. Depending on how EIA report plays out, I could see USOIL going to $65.22 (S2 Fib pivot point on the 4hr) and in the most extreme case $64.5x but that's if we get all the stars to align for us. 

Excellent.  Thank you for sharing.  

I'm not trading oil at present because I'm more interested and having better luck with the indexes right now, so I won't bore anyone with my thoughts on where I think oil is going in general.

Good luck to all with whatever trades your are making, if you are making any.

[fOILed + 9]

ATK, Catch. I enjoy your analysis very much and definitely consider it in my plays. Unfortunaely i dont have much valuable insight to offer, just a (very)mildly educated opinion. the cost of my education has been expensive, but trending in the right direction. Im in today in 3x bull etf around $66.45, ready to average down/ double down if it goes to 65.5. Hoping i can hold out to 68.75 or so. Not sure I think its heading back to 75ish any time real soon (ie '18)

Edited October 30, 2018 by fOILed
typos

[catch22 + 244]

1 hour ago, fOILed said:

ATK, Catch. I enjoy your analysis very much and definitely consider it in my plays. Unfortunaely i dont have much valuable insight to offer, just a (very)mildly educated opinion. the cost of my education has been expensive, but trending in the right direction. Im in today in 3x bull etf around $66.45, ready to average down/ double down if it goes to 65.5. Hoping i can hold out to 68.75 or so. Not sure I think its heading back to 75ish any time real soon (ie '18)

how did you get in at $66.45? its been above that all day?

As to your target - i see it range bound for the time being, bouncing back and forth between 68 and 66... if you got in yesterday at 66.45 - id be looking to take profit at the previous last swing high of 67.7... If not - your betting on a breakout high and will loose profit if it chooses to reject off the resistance once again... another option is to bank some profit and let some ride if you really believe strongly that its going to break high... my 2c

As some additional commentary - there is an improvement in the risk sentiment in the asian session with indicies up and also risk currencies are up. This is sure fire means of identifying the risk mood in the market. Whether it holds thru the london and NY sessions remains to be seen - it could catch a bid or the rallies will be sold into again and smashed back down like it was all last week.

Edited October 30, 2018 by catch22

[fOILed + 9]

yeah, monday after 3 eastern .probably closer to 66.54 as i look closer. missed out on the day's low at 66.29, but not by much. i like your short term target- makes sense

[sharpiesniffer 0]

3 hours ago, ATK said:

I always post my FA here, I'm about 80% FA and 20% TA. I buy/sell  calls/puts the same week they expire every single week and play the oil reports. Since options are much more complicated in the different ways you can make money (aka selling puts and calls), I don't focus as much on exact price point's and focus more on general trends, the timing of these trends, and how the passage of time affects the value of certain options (time decay aka theta). That being said, I do have exits and entries when I buy some puts/calls. This week, I bought puts for USO with a strike of 14.0, I have xxx contracts I bought when they were 0.07. Depending on how EIA report plays out, I could see USOIL going to $65.22 (S2 Fib pivot point on the 4hr) and in the most extreme case $64.5x but that's if we get all the stars to align for us. 

I've posted more thorough stuff in the past, even calling the bounce to $72, but it mostly just fell to depth ears. 

But yeah I'm with Catch22, this isnt really much of a trading forum. I'll be sticking with reddit and won't get in the way of these detailed and thorough plays

I like your analysis. Where on reddit do you post?

Thanks

[Keven Tan + 85]

Waiting for API report in next few hours. Somehow I have a feeling there will be massive surplus. Let’s see the first show! US stock market will probably keeps falling until the result at midterm.