WTI @ $75.75, headed for $64 - 67

[catch22 + 244]

Heres an idea for shorter term trades in a ranging oil market - this is a 15m candle stick chart which shows the ranging between $68-66 over the last few days. Ive included 2 custom moving averages which would have net a significant profit had the entries triggered on the MA crossings. Fast MA cross up buy,  or cross down sell. MFI green and RSI also green for buy, opposite for sell. For a dynamic exit point rather than fixed TP, use the MFI - if candle close with contrarian MFI and RSI (reversal point) - thats the exit trigger.

Quite remarkable how accurate it would have been? Ive also found it to be  working quite well on Forex pairs also. Made a bunch of pips today - has been a good day I think tomorrow will be another good day also

When market changes to a broader trend - things change a bit and you wont get the signals from the MA crossing, i have something else for that which ill share at the appropriate time...

Lastly - oil is looking pretty weak right now - its approaching a break point lower the MA are diverging supporting the move. Also note the chart printing lower highs previously. Could be the move lower about to happen, or will it be another bounce?

Edited October 30, 2018 by catch22

[ATK + 355]

1 hour ago, catch22 said:

Heres an idea for shorter term trades in a ranging oil market - this is a 15m candle stick chart which shows the ranging between $68-66 over the last few days. Ive included 2 custom moving averages which would have net a significant profit had the entries triggered on the MA crossings. Fast MA cross up buy,  or cross down sell. MFI green and RSI also green for buy, opposite for sell. For a dynamic exit point rather than fixed TP, use the MFI - if candle close with contrarian MFI and RSI (reversal point) - thats the exit trigger.

Quite remarkable how accurate it would have been? Ive also found it to be  working quite well on Forex pairs also. Made a bunch of pips today - has been a good day I think tomorrow will be another good day also

When market changes to a broader trend - things change a bit and you wont get the signals from the MA crossing, i have something else for that which ill share at the appropriate time...

Lastly - oil is looking pretty weak right now - its approaching a break point lower the MA are diverging supporting the move. Also note the chart printing lower highs previously. Could be the move lower about to happen, or will it be another bounce?

MA cross on the 4hr

[catch22 + 244]

and there she goes!

[Keven Tan + 85]

At least, I made a right guess! Hahah

Now the question is whether crude will keep further go down or go up. 

Still wairng for the API for the first determination. 

 

[catch22 + 244]

based on the current move - i think she could easily go to $65 before NY close - and possibly even lower into the 64s after it hovers around the 65 level for a bit before the week is over...

[Texas Oil Bull + 2]

On 10/28/2018 at 10:20 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

so what we are seeing is some kind of consolidation in crude right, but due to the very very poor retracement, almost laughable, wti will eventually hit the 50s. Now so would you short in an up consolidation, only if you know what you are doing. And then only small trades. 

So for example here, i know if i tell people to short at 67.4 and it goes to 66.90 and then hits 70 and then to 55, they will show my trade setup and say look he is wrong. He said to go short at 67.50 and now its 70. So lets try and please those traders. 

So lets do a mini trade so they cant come back and say you see he was wrong. So if wti hits 67.40 go short exit about 67.10. Sorry i have to give you such a small trade, but this is what most scalpers try to figure out, without too much success. So we will try and give them a hand, so they will be a little happy. That doesnt mean wti cant hit 68.xx. But we shall take a chance that if it drops a bit it can drop nother 30 points. And should it reverse, then there is a  possibility of a long only of course if the right things happen, and i will let you figure that one out yourself, lets do that one as a homework assignment. 

 

JJ, Thanks for your insight!  I joined this forum in order to follow you and appreciate you putting your neck out there and making the predictions that have really been spot on.  Any more clarity on why you think Oil may be heading into the 50's?  Do the Iranian sanctions really even matter anymore since it looks like Saudi and Russia, US etc will pick up the slack?  Thanks!

[ATK + 355]

Lol... smh

[ATK + 355]

12 hours ago, sharpiesniffer said:

I like your analysis. Where on reddit do you post?

Thanks

Lol your the first apparently, just listen to JJ

[catch22 + 244]

im actually surprised it didnt fall further already...

The overall trend is still down - so im not placing too much emphasis on the MA cross up you can see here - it could be another repeat of the brief cross up and then down just prior to this cross.

Of more importance, is the overall trend being down, and there is also now a descending resistance line and rising support line as shown. When one of these breaks - the move will likely continue in that direction.

Im still favouring the downward break and so if i trade this i will be waiting first for the break of the lower support line, and then also waiting for the MA to cross down - once both conditions are met, RSI and MFI down, and price action continuing to fall - then go short. This is called a brief trading plan and it helps to have one ready so you can reference it and check all your conditions before pulling the trigger...

[Keven Tan + 85]

3 minutes ago, catch22 said:

im actually surprised it didnt fall further already...

The overall trend is still down - so im not placing too much emphasis on the MA cross up you can see here - it could be another repeat of the brief cross up and then down just prior to this cross.

Of more importance, is the overall trend being down, and there is also now a descending resistance line and rising support line as shown. When one of these breaks - the move will likely continue in that direction.

Im still favouring the downward break and so if i trade this i will be waiting first for the break of the lower support line, and then also waiting for the MA to cross down - once both conditions are met, RSI and MFI down, and price action continuing to fall - then go short. This is called a brief trading plan and it helps to have one ready so you can reference it and check all your conditions before pulling the trigger...

Thanks a lot for the chart and guide. 

I am surprised by the market reaction not being too much affected with the API report, and WTI currently is up trending. I thought there was already the bottom back to 10-23. With today’s new low, I believe bear will be continued for a while even with Iran sanction’s effects; unless WTI will break $68 first. 

Can we also restart a oil price conversation since JJ has already delivered his predictions?

 

[catch22 + 244]

1 hour ago, Keven Tan said:

Thanks a lot for the chart and guide. 

I am surprised by the market reaction not being too much affected with the API report, and WTI currently is up trending. I thought there was already the bottom back to 10-23. With today’s new low, I believe bear will be continued for a while even with Iran sanction’s effects; unless WTI will break $68 first. 

Can we also restart a oil price conversation since JJ has already delivered his predictions?

 

isnt that what we are doing?

i would encourage JJ to get involved in a meaningful way again. The only problem with all of JJs predictions is that they were meaningless without a time frame.  That is, and ill use what others have said about this, "even a broken clock is right twice a day".

So whilst oil might be trending down, and i go the record and say "oil is going to hit $40" is there any point to that statement? Is there any value in it? what exactly can you do with that in itself without any other information? nothing - so whats the point in talking about it?

Now if i made the same statement and added "within 7 days" (not saying this will actually happen btw) - well then now it means a whole lot more doesnt it! For example we could talk about the impact of that change in that time period and what that effect would have on economies and countries, make decisions about investments, environmental implications, many things. You cant do that effectively without time (and many other things), because price is just a number. 70 years ago $40 per bbl would have seemed outrageously expensive because you could have bought your own paradise island for $40. These days, you cant even buy lunch at a cafe for 40 bux. Now 70years -that is an extreme example of inflation, but even if you take 6 months- that is a very long time in the commodities market - have a look at the price range weve seen in the previous 6 months! So without a qualifying time period or something else to give it a value (such as the USD appreciation for example) - i really dont see the point in starting a conversation about oil price as a singular, as it has a completely arbitrary value in itself alone. 

 

Edited October 31, 2018 by catch22

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

couldn't log in for some time. but..if 63 breaks it should hit my next target of 57. Something happened since october 1st, when wti was at 76, when I said crude wti would drop to 67 - 64. A day later top traders said we where going to 80 even 100. wasn't until 2  weeks later they woke up, and slowly tried to figure out what was happening, finally when wti hit 65 it hit them, oil glut, less demand etc etc. By then if you traded on the news, or all the expert analysts, you would have lost your shirt and then some.. Now they cant figure out if 65 was the bottom. Indeed 65 was a bottom, but for how long. the 64k question.

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 minute ago, Top Oil Trader said:

couldn't log in for some time. but..if 63 breaks it should hit my next target of 57. Something happened since october 1st, when wti was at 76, when I said crude wti would drop to 67 - 64. A day later top traders said we where going to 80 even 100. wasn't until 2  weeks later they woke up, and slowly tried to figure out what was happening, finally when wti hit 65 it hit them, oil glut, less demand etc etc. By then if you traded on the news, or all the expert analysts, you would have lost your shirt and then some.. Now they cant figure out if 65 was the bottom. Indeed 65 was a bottom, but for how long. the 64k question.

 

Brace yourself.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

though im at different locations some with high security, been difficult to enter this site, due to heavy security protocols from the locations,  But have some shorts from 66.8 from earlier hope to exit in the 64 range.

[ATK + 355]

On 10/29/2018 at 10:06 PM, ATK said:

I always post my FA here, I'm about 80% FA and 20% TA. I buy/sell  calls/puts the same week they expire every single week and play the oil reports. Since options are much more complicated in the different ways you can make money (aka selling puts and calls), I don't focus as much on exact price point's and focus more on general trends, the timing of these trends, and how the passage of time affects the value of certain options (time decay aka theta). That being said, I do have exits and entries when I buy some puts/calls. This week, I bought puts for USO with a strike of 14.0, I have xxx contracts I bought when they were 0.07. Depending on how EIA report plays out, I could see USOIL going to $65.22 (S2 Fib pivot point on the 4hr) and in the most extreme case $64.5x but that's if we get all the stars to align for us. 

I've posted more thorough stuff in the past, even calling the bounce to $72, but it mostly just fell to depth ears. 

But yeah I'm with Catch22, this isnt really much of a trading forum. I'll be sticking with reddit and won't get in the way of these detailed and thorough plays

Edit: again my retarded posts get upvoted, but this stuff just goes ignored. I'm done helping you guys, bye

Golly gee would you look at that, I even gave you guys a time frame too (options expire this week). I know that's rare so what a treat 

But it's just ATK so what does he know lol.

Edited October 31, 2018 by ATK

[ATK + 355]

4 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

couldn't log in for some time. but..if 63 breaks it should hit my next target of 57. Something happened since october 1st, when wti was at 76, when I said crude wti would drop to 67 - 64. A day later top traders said we where going to 80 even 100. wasn't until 2  weeks later they woke up, and slowly tried to figure out what was happening, finally when wti hit 65 it hit them, oil glut, less demand etc etc. By then if you traded on the news, or all the expert analysts, you would have lost your shirt and then some.. Now they cant figure out if 65 was the bottom. Indeed 65 was a bottom, but for how long. the 64k question.

 

Literally a bunch of us in here talked about how irrational oil bulls were being and that it was only hedge funds calling for $100 a barrel. 

If you traded off of fundamentals, aka 6 weeks of crude builds, you would of done just fine

Edit: ohhh my! Someone actually liked my comment!? But my name isn't even JJ!

Edited October 31, 2018 by ATK

[ATK + 355]

18 hours ago, catch22 said:

isnt that what we are doing?

i would encourage JJ to get involved in a meaningful way again. The only problem with all of JJs predictions is that they were meaningless without a time frame.  That is, and ill use what others have said about this, "even a broken clock is right twice a day".

So whilst oil might be trending down, and i go the record and say "oil is going to hit $40" is there any point to that statement? Is there any value in it? what exactly can you do with that in itself without any other information? nothing - so whats the point in talking about it?

Now if i made the same statement and added "within 7 days" (not saying this will actually happen btw) - well then now it means a whole lot more doesnt it! For example we could talk about the impact of that change in that time period and what that effect would have on economies and countries, make decisions about investments, environmental implications, many things. You cant do that effectively without time (and many other things), because price is just a number. 70 years ago $40 per bbl would have seemed outrageously expensive because you could have bought your own paradise island for $40. These days, you cant even buy lunch at a cafe for 40 bux. Now 70years -that is an extreme example of inflation, but even if you take 6 months- that is a very long time in the commodities market - have a look at the price range weve seen in the previous 6 months! So without a qualifying time period or something else to give it a value (such as the USD appreciation for example) - i really dont see the point in starting a conversation about oil price as a singular, as it has a completely arbitrary value in itself alone. 

 

Good luck getting any kind of response, we are basically ghosts

Oh you know what, he probably has us on ignore. Makes sense lol 

Edited October 31, 2018 by ATK

[ATK + 355]

39 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

though im at different locations some with high security, been difficult to enter this site, due to heavy security protocols from the locations,  But have some shorts from 66.8 from earlier hope to exit in the 64 range.

Should of shared this trade with everyone so others could benefit from it (taking a page from DW's book) 

[catch22 + 244]

Dont worry, The trade JJ mensioned short from 66.8- doesnt exist without proof. Anyone can make claims they took a position after a drop but its more meaningless noise to do so... anyone can take a screenshot and paste it into the thread to back up their claims or reasoning in a split second, its reallly not difficult unless you have sonething to hide...

Well done on the analysis ATK- i think we both deserve a beer for what we achieved in the last few days- hope you made a bundle of cash from it

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so its kind of funny how my trading evolved here with crude. In beginning i came here since i shorted back in summer, wanted to see what this site said about crude, if they thought it was going down, and no, noone did. Then i tried some time later to just day trade it, in and out i think i lost 1k. So i stopped back to forex. came back a month later, with my new trade to short longer term, and at the same time worked out an intraday way to trade crude. At first i thought ill do a good job, but not super good. then as im watching all the moves, i realized that trading crude is like the easiest thing in the planet to trade, even easier than forex or stocks. So at this point i may actually try and just focus on trading crude, and leave forex for others. euro barely moved 50 points in a long time, and crude has ranged like 350 points much bigger moves, and very easy to catch. I am sorry i answer most replies, but some of you do have some very valid points. But to all good luck, though i have very little experience trading crude, certainly it looks like atk and catch22 have years of experience, it shows from their posts, but to me trading crude came naturally with little effort, and it is beginning to become very predictable every day

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so still didnt exit the shorts. at this point it looks like  eventually well hit 63.and since i dont have much time to be in front of pc, i probably may stay short on WTI all the way to 57. At that point i do think some big buyers should step in. By buyers it could be countries like india, china who would want to stock up

[Osama + 248]

42 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

so still didnt exit the shorts. at this point it looks like  eventually well hit 63.and since i dont have much time to be in front of pc, i probably may stay short on WTI all the way to 57. At that point i do think some big buyers should step in. By buyers it could be countries like india, china who would want to stock up

When WTI was $76 you said it'll touch $67-$64---it did.

Now $57---why not!

So, I might go for this as well.

But the question is --- is this a good point to enter?

@Dan Warnick---what do you think?

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

to know when to enter u need to watch the price action, so daily what happens when prices drop is buyers buy and prices spike, so its watching for when those spikes are over, as u know crude can jump 200 points in the other direciton for no reason. so since im not watching it  all the time and im in  now  all the way from the 67s i dont need to watch anymore for a good entry point. Now my entry point since im looking for long trades wont be good for others for are looking for 15 points with 10 points stop, i take longer stops. since i dont have a trading room, i cant monitor wti all day.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

“Some market observers thought at the beginning of October that the price would climb to $100, begging the question of what has changed so fundamentally in the past 3-4 weeks. What has changed above all is market sentiment, as evidenced by the massive withdrawal of speculative financial investors,” Commerzbank said in a note. you remembem i said a week before this that prices where headed  down from 76 yo 67-64. so what where these people thinking, and why did the banks figure out that oil wasnt going up until it dropped almost 15%? well this is why  day traders dont make money either, they are all glued to the latest figures or news or expert opinion from people or cos who should know, but dont. as such either you think out of the box, or join the rat race, and simply act as liquidity, for the hedgefunds or producers. Its sad but it is the truth, some traders who have a lot more experience than me trading crude, act as witnesses to this fact daily. When i started attacking crude seriously back in septermber and understood why it moves the way it does and how and when, it became a lot clearer how to trade it and later when i figured out how to day trade it, it all came back together. First with crude its hard for most due to its wild swings, and if your emotions are not in check, most are not, then you will fail to catch the big moves, but will be stuck making 30 bucks here and there, and then losing 2k on one move. So trading will be a losing proposition. And since crude looks like its sporadic its hard for most to come up with a sucessfull day trading system, let a long a sucessfull trend system, stuff the hedgefunds try to figure with some sucess.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

hi here is a simple scalp im still short hope i can hold until  about 60. so lets start backwards out target for today is 64.17