WTI @ $75.75, headed for $64 - 67

[aakash kapoor + 16]

Hi guys,

I am new to trading and have been following the thread from 5th October when the price of WTI hit its maximum value. Due to my inexperience, i never though WTI would fall this much but following this thread has helped me make more than 15k$ as of now for which i'll be always thankful to @Top Oil Trader, @ATK and @catch22. Though everone gangs up on JJ, i've been inspired by his writing and found his analysis to be quite different from others. I appreciate the work ATK and catch22 do through their thorough technical analysis and provide a time-frame that helped me to short from 66$ to this date(value 59.28, today's low).

Thank you very much guys, and if following this helps me to buy at the bottom and increase my profit, i would happily share 1k$ with each one of you :))

Edited November 9, 2018 by aakash kapoor

[ATK + 355]

4 hours ago, aakash kapoor said:

Hi guys,

I am new to trading and have been following the thread from 5th October when the price of WTI hit its maximum value. Due to my inexperience, i never though WTI would fall this much but following this thread has helped me make more than 15k$ as of now for which i'll be always thankful to @Top Oil Trader, @ATK and @catch22. Though everone gangs up on JJ, i've been inspired by his writing and found his analysis to be quite different from others. I appreciate the work ATK and catch22 do through their thorough technical analysis and provide a time-frame that helped me to short from 66$ to this date(value 59.28, today's low).

Thank you very much guys, and if following this helps me to buy at the bottom and increase my profit, i would happily share 1k$ with each one of you :))

Glad we could help, I'm going to leave JJ alone and let him do his thing over here. I'd probably like him more if he showed some humility, but at this point it's probably best we ignore one another.

@catch22 does some solid TA and comes the closest to what I call a "Chart Wizard" 

By chart wizard I mean he can almost exclusively trade going off of charts alone, can't think of many people who are like that (@oilfutures is also pretty good).

Edited November 9, 2018 by ATK

[catch22 + 244]

7 hours ago, ATK said:

Glad we could help, I'm going to leave JJ alone and let him do his thing over here. I'd probably like him more if he showed some humility, but at this point it's probably best we ignore one another.

@catch22 does some solid TA and comes the closest to what I call a "Chart Wizard" 

By chart wizard I mean he can almost exclusively trade going off of charts alone, can't think of many people who are like that (@oilfutures is also pretty good).

ATK - just to clarify mate - i definately do not just trade off charts alone - i always consider the fundamentals with it. The highest confidence trades i take when both the technical and fundamentals complement one another. I dont focus on the fundamentals in these threads as other people like you are doing that. I just offer the charting stuff as not many others here are posting about it, this way we have a broader range of things to consider before taking positions...

[catch22 + 244]

On 11/9/2018 at 2:16 PM, Top Oil Trader said:

since i have been away did not have use of my fast computers or 55 inch screens...but i am surprised this 14 inch laptop was able to so accruately tell the directions in crude but long and short, and daily i have longs and shorts, though on most occassions i let the longs go, even though they are potential runners, i guess its possible i still dont trust these laptiops for trading to much, but cuising with crude has been fun, even though i had to constantly trade from different locations, and sometimes i didnot have access to internet and had positions open for many hours and still was profitable

So now if you want to make lets say 5k a week, with an account of just 5 to 10k  all you need is a cheap 14 inch laptop and a strategy and of course u need to trade something that moves like eminis or crude or a fast pair

So how does your computer or the size of your screen (or laptop) have any bearing on what the market does or how you derive a position? Is it the trader who is making the decisions, or is it your screen??? One day you post about how fast the market moves and trade based on price action-  then the next your able to trade it whilst traveling and do it without an internet connection.... really?!

Its nothing personal JJ, but you seem to have a total lack of respect for the market. You claim its "so easy" and make it sound like you are the worlds most gifted oil trader. Yet, so much of what you write, like the above quoted, and the naivety displayed within your words, makes it so obvious that you do not understand the basics of trading, especially with regards to risk.

Now whilst i dont believe for a moment what you claim about your trading successes over the last 3 weeks, but even it were true, when you make a gain of 160% of the total account size in 3 weeks, any professional trader knows that it only means 1 thing - the risks the trader took were high and nothing more. It is mathematically impossible to achieve a return like that without huge amounts of risk and im talking about the levels of risk which will wipe out your account in the blink of an eye. So when you proudly talk about gains like that, all i see is foolishness and naivety. Its the mentality of a gambler not a trader. A gambler thinks about the profits, a trader thinks about the risks - and you have never given them 1 mention in anything youve written on this forum.

Remember back in your last thread - you explained that you were not trading oil because you had lost interest and moved over to forex exclusively? You were claiming how easy forex was compared to crude. Now youve left that and come back to crude, again claiming how easy it is. Did you blow up your account on crude before going to forex, then did the same on that, and now back on crude again? Do you realize your repeating the same mistakes? The people you are engaged with here are not fools, and we have a very good memory.

Humility, and utmost respect and understanding of risk, is a prerequisite to being a successful trader.

The market does not care, it will take ALL your money and not feel the slightest bit sorry for you nor console you if you do not respect it...

Edited November 10, 2018 by catch22

[ATK + 355]

Would just like to add that a lot of my trades are high risk and high reward, I probably lost 1.7 grand on the spike up to $76. I would say more often then not my trades are successful, but they do carry significant risk in most cases and when I am wrong I end up losing a decent amount. That being said, I do take more conservative strategies like buying call debit/put credit spreads when the time warrants it, but ultimately it comes down to the risk tolerance of the trader and what they are willing to lose.

In most cases when I lose its because I either over leverage myself (and thus make myself more of an emotional trader) or I become too ambitious about price action moving to a target in a short period of time. Don't let anyone fool you that it is all sunshine and rainbows, because if making money like this truly was this easy, everybody would be doing it and we would all be rich. That 10 grand trade I did was a once in a blue moon event (by this i mean the FA and TA both lined up perfectly) and had a lot of risk associated with it.

So always always ALWAYS practice on paper first and only risk money that you are completely fine with losing.

I know catch22 and I might seem harsh sometimes, but only because we know this market preys on the naive who are looking to make a quick buck and fully don't  understand all the risks involved. We get so swept up in the thought of quick cash that we almost put our blinders on and only think of the profit rather than the risk (losely qouted from catch22). That way of thinking is only amplified when we are given the impression that it's really easy and simple whete anyone old joe smoe can do it. To put it frankly, I just think it is reckless. So please always consider the risks involved with your trades.

Edited November 10, 2018 by ATK

[ATK + 355]

11 hours ago, catch22 said:

ATK - just to clarify mate - i definately do not just trade off charts alone - i always consider the fundamentals with it. The highest confidence trades i take when both the technical and fundamentals complement one another. I dont focus on the fundamentals in these threads as other people like you are doing that. I just offer the charting stuff as not many others here are posting about it, this way we have a broader range of things to consider before taking positions...

I meant more in the sense that if all you had were charts and no news, you would be able to trade off of it. Basically I'm just saying you have awesome TA, but also know you are on the up and up with your FA also 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

You see in trading not only do you need to have the right targets. And from the time the trend reverses, so at 75 my target was 64-67. that hit, then i say somewhere in the 50s and that hit too. now if you remember i said the  crude would revese on the exact date of 11.12.18, yes, and indeed today it popped almost 2 bucks from its low of friday. how did i know this? i wish i could tell you, but, there is now another thread that someone created using my targets, maybe they will be able to explain the next targets coming up in crude, was friday the last low we will see in crude, is this the new bull trend? so indeed go to the new thread where technical anlyysis will be discussed, but please try not to lose your shirt over there....i may in the future come back here in the future and give you some more secrets of where crude is now headed, but i dont think u need me any more beside since the website replaced my link it obvious they dont value my opinions anymore, 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

ok my last post. i came here originally to help myself learn how to trade crude and eventually teach you guys, but things happened and i decided this was not the forum for me to teach you guys, some bad apples in here, destroyed it for the rest of you, and with mo support form the site, so. my last parting words, learn all technicals you want it will never help you, you need an edge, no edge youll be just wasting your time

[GeoPolitics + 14]

Good discussion going on in the other thread If you are interested 

1 minute ago, Technical_Fundamentalist said:

What does everyone think about the OPEC meeting?

 

[Fantom + 6]

15 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

ok τελευταία μου θέση. ήρθα εδώ αρχικά για να βοηθήσω τον εαυτό μου να μάθω πώς να εμπορεύεται το αργό και τελικά να σας διδάξω παιδιά, αλλά τα πράγματα συνέβησαν και αποφάσισα ότι αυτό δεν ήταν το φόρουμ για μένα να σας διδάξω παιδιά, κάποια κακά μήλα εδώ, το κατέστρεψαν για τους υπόλοιπους, και με τη στήριξη από τον τόπο, έτσι. τα τελευταία μου λόγια, μαθαίνω όλα τα τεχνικά που θέλεις ποτέ δεν θα σε βοηθήσουν, χρειάζεσαι άκρη, χωρίς άκρη θα σπαταλάς μόνο το χρόνο σου

all the original are copied, do not worry. Write what you want and like to follow you. I watch you from the first day. Some need to know so that they can appreciate, so go ahead and do not care about your shadows. follow you

[ATK + 355]

21 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

 i said the  crude would revese on the exact date of 11.12.18, yes, and indeed today it popped almost 2 bucks 

I cant find a post anywhere where you stated this, but regardless It's currently $58.98 and def not reversing today

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

and here is my 57 target. all targets now reached. I just want to say this. I have been able to make 2k easy witth just an acct of 10k. When i follow the system, its a cool couple of thousand. in the countertrend which i usually dont do, but have done a few times it is able to catch 50 to 100 point moves, before the next crash. This was a good experience for me, and i thank anyone who may have made this a fun experience specially dk. I am pretty sure trading crude will be one of my specialties, my next asset to conquer will be sp 500. Forex is not done i know when and how to trade it, and i guess i will cover one more which will be copper gold silver to see if i can figure out how they move and their targets. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

however since charting is now too easy, doesnt really matter what it should take me 30 min to figure each one out now. the next step might be options, taking some private courses saliba or najaran, since i can accurately now predict where the assets are heading, and pretty accurately by when, doing startegies or finding very underpriced options, like buying crude underpiced puts when crude was 76 in oct 1 and i knew it had to hit 65, but eventually i changed that to lower, those options i could have bought for nothing and they would have gone up 20 times, so a much more efficient way to make money, no worries about margins if u just buy them cash. then maybe one day well create a website and showing the diffferent plays availabe on the different assets, all people need to do is like pick 3 out of the 30 startegies i will post, but it will take some time for me to come with those ideas

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

notice noone is comming out now with the 80 price targets or the 300 ones which was from the biggest oil hedge fund, some french guy, but the day will come when these guys will be right,   but nt before their current investors lose all faith in them.

 

so much money to be made and absolutely noone out there even has a clue

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

just 1 more thought though i said 57 will be hit and it  was today. this wont be the low. i hope there wont be too much  destruction in the shale world many cos. wont be able to hold on, specially since hardly any has cash reserves

[ATK + 355]

23 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

just 1 more thought though i said 57 will be hit and it  was today. this wont be the low. i hope there wont be too much  destruction in the shale world many cos. wont be able to hold on, specially since hardly any has cash reserves

But hold on JJ, you said it would reverse yesterday on 11/12/18. Now your saying you called $57?

Seems like someone is going back and changing their answers!

[Fantom + 6]

Please ,gave rate -gave target JJ

[JP9 + 3]

What do you guys think will be the $$ low for oil? And when is the reversal coming? I'd like to here y'all thoughts

[nostro200 + 19]

"top oil trader"

Mr jj says his calls after they happend. And every brokr fuck applauds..  lol 

[nostro200 + 19]

4 hours ago, Fantom said:

Please ,gave rate -gave target JJ

Please you of learnings engrish

[nostro200 + 19]

2 hours ago, JP9 said:

What do you guys think will be the $$ low for oil? And when is the reversal coming? I'd like to here y'all thoughts

Might as well ask whats in the center of a black hole.

"Nobody... and I don't care if you're Warren Buffet or if you're Jimmy Buffet. Nobody knows if a stock is gonna go up, down, sideways or in fucking circles." Mark Hanna

Edited November 13, 2018 by nostro200

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

except for soros how made a couple of 1 billion dollar 1 way trades

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

unfortunately i think people who tried to pick the low 60s and 70s and go bottom fishing, at high sixties and lower, are now all jumping out windows, the losses here where unexpected to most who had no clue, and thought the drop would  . isnt it funny when oil hit my 57 target i told u that wont be the low,  honestly i think some big kahunas are reading these post. well they where all misled in a very  big way, and its a shame. but there will be a big up move comming eventually right, after all at 55 many country producers will be going bankrupt. see as some here know the average cost of producing a barrel amongst most countries is about $62.5 at this point many countries are better of closing production decresing supply until there is higher deman or just risk  going bankrupt,   selling oil here at 55 is hurting many countries right now, i do expect a big fallout comming next...i think today was the biggest drop i ever saw in 1 day, then again i have only been looking at crude on and now for 3 months... must say was a fun experience, i now understand a little better why so many traders dont get it, and why even the big kahunas are so misled, sometimes u wonder what exactly are they are being paid to do, if they have no clue. for now since i  exited the shors i probably wont be trading  crude for a while, shorting here at 55 and 1 day  seeing a 5 pop upswing which could happen easy.. just based on contries wanting to get in at these low prices. remember 1 day 80s and higher will be hit, so all the expert who said $20 ago that oil would go will be right, but their investors paid a big heavy price, oh well maybe theyll learn something next time around, but i doubt it...history repeats itselft, and usually analysts who have no clue, are the leaders in predicions that lead to misreable investment decisions. i see the golman people saying, well noone forsaw oil could drop this much this fast. we had absolutely no warning, put  writers must have gotten killed in a big way. for the next bull move whenever that happens, i will be prepared in a big big way. just know this something     terrible happened to the oil prices, and if they dont step in, chaos will ensue, a simple way for them to stop it from going x and more      bloodsheed, is a middle east war, which i do predict is around the corner,  its  shame that needs to play out, just to save some people their billions in investments,  however buying call options and trying to predict the low, all those calls are now basically worthless, and they whre in many cases worthless within hours of purchase, ask some of the guys here, who do options, im sure they have experience in that part

[catch22 + 244]

All i hear are crickets...

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

isnt it interestin iran sanctions came 2 weeks ago and oil proceeded to crash. the big  top oil trader russel hardy from vitol none of these people had a clue, remember he said noone can avoid the sanctions which means there will be a decrease in supply, and the reverse happened. how much does that guy get paid again? anyways if someone doesnt do something quick, its over... having said that, i will be looking to go long   big later in uk session, once i see prices temporarily  base off,  sounds risky right bottom feeding, again just for a buck or maybe  even a couple, and i do expect this  first        temp retrace will be fast and furious catching many by surprise,  thats the thing if u can see the moves before they happen nothing will surprise you. all you need is an edge, and trading oil is like pulling leafs of a four leaf clover but i do admit it wasnt easy at first, i almost gave up, and then puff, the magic just happened..