WTI @ $75.75, headed for $64 - 67

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 minutes ago, NAPHTA said:

Open another LP tomorrow!...if you get the chance. Today is a holiday and volumes relatively low. 

Why.  Are you laughing with me or at me?  LOL!

[ATK + 355]

15 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

ATK i really see wti going down. down down down. but then up up up to maybe 99.97 or higher. we shall see.

I see oil being between $0 - $1000

Am I a top oil trader now?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

 

Oil prices to rise on 2 factors, says former Shell Oil president

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Do we need some more reasons?  How many more easy targets for the media tomorrow?  WTI is going higher tomorrow?

Oil and natural-gas operators evacuate some Gulf of Mexico platforms as Hurricane Michael approaches

Oil and natural-gas operators in the Gulf of Mexico have been taking precautions as Hurricane Michael approaches, evacuating a total of 10 production platforms, or about 1.5% of the 687 manned platforms in the region, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said Monday. Roughly 19% of Gulf oil production and about 11% of natural-gas production have been shut in, the BSEE said. Michael is expected to move across the eastern Gulf Tuesday and inland over Florida Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center. Oil prices pared some of their earlier declines, with November West Texas Intermediate oil down 22 cents, or 0.3%, at $74.12 a barrel. November natural gas traded up 13.2 cents, or 4.2%, at $3.271 per million British thermal units. It's holding ground at the highest levels since January as U.S. supplies stand well below the five-year average.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

The Russian Oil Decline By Dr. Kent Moors | October 08, 2018

About the Author

Dr. Kent Moors is an internationally recognized expert in oil and natural gas policy, risk management, emerging market economic development, and market risk assessment.

He serves as an advisor to the highest levels of 27 countries, including the U.S., Russian, Kazakh, Chinese, Iraqi, and Kurdish governments, to the governors of several U.S. states, and to the premiers of two Canadian provinces. He’s served as a consultant to private companies, financial institutions and law firms in 29 countries, and has appeared more than 2,300 times as a featured radio-and-television commentator. He appears regularly on ABC, BBC, Bloomberg TV, CBS, CNBC, CNN, NBC, Russian RTV, and the Fox Business Network.

[ATK + 355]

1 hour ago, Dan Warnick said:

Do we need some more reasons?  How many more easy targets for the media tomorrow?  WTI is going higher tomorrow?

Oil and natural-gas operators evacuate some Gulf of Mexico platforms as Hurricane Michael approaches

Oil and natural-gas operators in the Gulf of Mexico have been taking precautions as Hurricane Michael approaches, evacuating a total of 10 production platforms, or about 1.5% of the 687 manned platforms in the region, the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said Monday. Roughly 19% of Gulf oil production and about 11% of natural-gas production have been shut in, the BSEE said. Michael is expected to move across the eastern Gulf Tuesday and inland over Florida Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center. Oil prices pared some of their earlier declines, with November West Texas Intermediate oil down 22 cents, or 0.3%, at $74.12 a barrel. November natural gas traded up 13.2 cents, or 4.2%, at $3.271 per million British thermal units. It's holding ground at the highest levels since January as U.S. supplies stand well below the five-year average.

Oil reports are a week behind so this should show up in next week's report

[Bradtech + 3]

6 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

@Bradtech  Welcome.  Always good to have someone on the ground to lend some reality.  Sorry for your community's boom or bust issues, but at least there are jobs for now.  Save and invest in U.S. treasuries, at least, to protect some of the money made during the boom cycle.

What do you guys know about the pipeline situation?

It was rather bad when oil dropped. But now it's booming again & everyone is driving around in 70-80k trucks not saving a dime.  My father in law is trucking oil field materials & it's an around the clock operation for him & three other truck drivers.  I do see oil companies remaining very lean right now. They are actually laying off quite a bit of people around here in offices. The drilling activity right now is unreal even compared to some previous booms.  When WTI was around $50-55 is when it came alive again. I live south of Oklahoma City. They are drilling heavily around Lindsey Oklahoma up to around Blanchard.  Lots of rigs west of OKC when I traveled through there.  Halliburton trucks everywhere.  It's hard to imagine the world being short on oil with the amount of activity going on.  I don't work in oil & gas but enjoy the home property value going up & booming economy locally. When oil goes down crime goes up & property value stays the same.  I drive 60-70 miles a day but only put in 8-9 gallons per fill up. I do think they are working on some new pipeline stuff come November.  

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Scary, remember the last huricane was a cat 5, ended up being a spring shower. This is not even a cat 1, and will end up being a water drizzle. Only news that could spike up oil prices would be, if they say, the aliens landed in the Permian basin. They might have to say that, since all the scare tactics are now having no effect. Which  means crude is going down  no matter what story they concoct..

Edited October 8, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

13 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Scary, remember the last huricane was a cat 5, ended up being a spring shower. This is not even a cat 1, and will end up being a water drizzle. Only news that could spike up oil prices would be, if they say, the aliens landed in the Permian basin. They might have to say that, since all the scare tactics are now having no effect. Which  means crude is going down  no matter what story they concoct..

Well, if you weren't the top oil trader, I'd argue, but what's the use?  There are already aliens here; have you been to Wal-Mart recently?  Especially the one in New Jersey?

[catch22 + 244]

so what happened was the market bounced off the 61% retracement level as per my last post. i woulsnt make too much of it just yet as volume were thin over the holiday periods etc - alot of the big money was not trading so... the fact that the correction didnt follow thru adds weight to the longer term bullish argument tho. The next EU and US session times will give a clearer direction as nothing usually happens dramaticallly in the asian session - probably more sideways movement... For now tho - you can consider the 50% retracement level the short term support. The high from last week - this is the short term resistance. You can expect it will trade within this range for a little while looking for direction and a break above or below these levels should confirm either a return to the bullish trend or a change into a bearish environment...

Edited October 8, 2018 by catch22

[catch22 + 244]

if it turns out a trading range comes into play - ive added the pivot levels to this chart - you can see once again that it bounced off the S38 level - which are again based off the previous weeks trading range. In a ranging market - the price is more likely to return to the WPP shown in yellow. A classic ranging market will ossilate either side of this WPP. Not saying we are in a range just yet - too early to tell, but if it does play out that way - you can see the levels to look for reversals... You can also see the breach below the longer term rising trend line...

Edited October 8, 2018 by catch22

[ATK + 355]

1 hour ago, catch22 said:

if it turns out a trading range comes into play - ive added the pivot levels to this chart - you can see once again that it bounced off the S38 level - which are again based off the previous weeks trading range. In a ranging market - the price is more likely to return to the WPP shown in yellow. A classic ranging market will ossilate either side of this WPP. Not saying we are in a range just yet - too early to tell, but if it does play out that way - you can see the levels to look for reversals... You can also see the breach below the longer term rising trend line...

Now this is how you present TA, JJ take note

[NAPHTA + 33]

6 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

Why.  Are you laughing with me or at me?  LOL!

Definitely not at you and maybe not with you.  I was kinda serious.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

14 minutes ago, NAPHTA said:

Definitely not at you and maybe not with you.  I was kinda serious.

Ok, that's what I thought you meant.  Thanks.

[NAPHTA + 33]

2 hours ago, catch22 said:

so what happened was the market bounced off the 61% retracement level as per my last post. i woulsnt make too much of it just yet as volume were thin over the holiday periods etc - alot of the big money was not trading so... the fact that the correction didnt follow thru adds weight to the longer term bullish argument tho. The next EU and US session times will give a clearer direction as nothing usually happens dramaticallly in the asian session - probably more sideways movement... For now tho - you can consider the 50% retracement level the short term support. The high from last week - this is the short term resistance. You can expect it will trade within this range for a little while looking for direction and a break above or below these levels should confirm either a return to the bullish trend or a change into a bearish environment...

Thanks Catch22! That is precisely what I was thinking. This temporary move away from the downward movement came as a surprise and shows those "top Oil Traders" mean business. Ranging would be good news for me, if it does ranging within that frame you mention. I don't think though that this frame will hold longer than Thursday. 

Just one detail; I noticed recently that the Asian market has started to do more than sideways, worth some attention perhaps. But this is just a subjective impression, not based on any hard data from the chart.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Huricane Michael to skip Oil Platforms. Who would have guessed that?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-07/florida-to-declare-state-of-emergency-on-tropical-depression-14-jmyztpn6

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Huricane Michael to skip Oil Platforms. Who would have guessed that?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-07/florida-to-declare-state-of-emergency-on-tropical-depression-14-jmyztpn6

You're missing the whole point on this one, JJ.  The point is that for oil prices to go up it takes very little or even no news.  It's all just aimed at creating uncertainty, and uncertainty drives prices higher.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Indeed. Kapish.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

perfect WTI short is if it goes under 73

Edited October 9, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[catch22 + 244]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

perfect WTI short is if it goes under 73

Based upon what?

The market continued to follow thru since early asian session pushing higher and is now approaching the weekly pivot point located at 74.82 AND its also back on the long term support trend line.

From here - there is no trade to be had - its completely neutral now on the weekly pivot and trend line. Sit back and wait for the price action to move 1 way or the other... based on the short term history - id expect if it creeps back down to the S38 pivot - it will be met with buyers. Same goes the other way - if it creeps up higher - it will likely be sold into and thus osccilating about the WPP looking for impetus.

What the market will now be looking for is some kind of headline geopolitical news or fundamental data to shift it out of this range and give it a direction once again... we cant analyze future news events or geopolitical events as they havnt happened yet - so for now id simply stay out of the market and wait for something to happen that will move the market. Otherwise its simply a 50/50 bet at the casino in the short term... long term i still favour the bullish bias due to the geopolitcal risks still in play and the fact that the trend line breakdown did not follow thru - it came back up to the support line indicating the bears were not very committed just yet...

Edited October 9, 2018 by catch22

[NAPHTA + 33]

3 hours ago, catch22 said:

Based upon what?

The market continued to follow thru since early asian session pushing higher and is now approaching the weekly pivot point located at 74.82 AND its also back on the long term support trend line.

From here - there is no trade to be had - its completely neutral now on the weekly pivot and trend line. Sit back and wait for the price action to move 1 way or the other... based on the short term history - id expect if it creeps back down to the S38 pivot - it will be met with buyers. Same goes the other way - if it creeps up higher - it will likely be sold into and thus osccilating about the WPP looking for impetus.

What the market will now be looking for is some kind of headline geopolitical news or fundamental data to shift it out of this range and give it a direction once again... we cant analyze future news events or geopolitical events as they havnt happened yet - so for now id simply stay out of the market and wait for something to happen that will move the market. Otherwise its simply a 50/50 bet at the casino in the short term... long term i still favour the bullish bias due to the geopolitcal risks still in play and the fact that the trend line breakdown did not follow thru - it came back up to the support line indicating the bears were not very committed just yet...

So far Brent is doing what you were hinting at. It is dancing around a weekly level. Hourly shows overbought. I put a casino bet on the upside, hoping a spike at 85.4-85.6 and perhaps then retracement back to 84.xx. I know you're watching WTI, but they should move pretty the same way. Any new idea so far?

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

3 hours ago, catch22 said:

What the market will now be looking for is some kind of headline geopolitical news or fundamental data to shift it out of this range and give it a direction once again... we cant analyze future news events or geopolitical events as they havnt happened yet - so for now id simply stay out of the market and wait for something to happen that will move the market. Otherwise its simply a 50/50 bet at the casino in the short term... long term i still favour the bullish bias due to the geopolitcal risks still in play and the fact that the trend line breakdown did not follow thru - it came back up to the support line indicating the bears were not very committed just yet...

Much appreciated.  Thanks.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

6 hours ago, catch22 said:

The market continued to follow thru since early asian session pushing higher and is now approaching the weekly pivot point located at 74.82 AND its also back on the long term support trend line.

You discussed in your latest comments about how this is probably going to prove, in the short term at least, to be a sideways market until a breakout develops one way or the other, with a bias towards higher prices (if I understood correctly).  Would you agree that based on the intra-day trends over the last few weeks, that we should probably expect a spike upwards of ~0.50 to 1.00 dollars in the first couple of hours of trading in the U.S. today?

[ATK + 355]

Bulls win! Probably see $77 or $79 by the end of the week!

Woooot! Think I jinxed it

nvm! Rejinxed it!

Edited October 9, 2018 by ATK

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

12 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

You're missing the whole point on this one, JJ.  The point is that for oil prices to go up it takes very little or even no news.  It's all just aimed at creating uncertainty, and uncertainty drives prices higher.

Like I said, here is the latest headline from Bloomberg:

Oil Rises as Storm Halts Output While IEA Warns of Supply Crunch