WTI @ $75.75, headed for $64 - 67

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Catch all you need to do is read your charts better and it will become much clearer to you. unfortunately crude is very volatile, and until they decide to reverse the short term trend, they will take out all your confidence 10 times over. Once you completely give up, theyll move it down.

Last 2 days developed a beautiful system that scales in slowly into wti, very small risk, may work better with the wti mini, so you can scale into 10 minis, with very very minimal risk. This is what i would use should i get back into crude. So it add as it goes in the right direction, but each position has its own stop, so a position form very far back could be in profit, a poisiton further ahead could get stopped out, and then as the trend continues it keeps adding, until the trend is done and then closes them all. This is a system kind of based on the richard donchinian system but completely diff pararmeters, diff ideas, no indicators, but same kind of risk ideas. uses 60 points as a stop, so each loss stop sets you back just $60

Edited October 9, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Probably the best dream system based both on catching the swing and monitoring risk very closely that i have ever used, trying it now in forex,  and although the pound is going against me know im only down 12.5, This trade if it swings my way will end up with a 2k win, but right now if im wrong just a $50 loss. Probably from what i have seen how people get hit all the time, would be the most advanced way to manage risk and catch big moves. You see each trade you turn on, no matter how good the setup, is indeed 50/50, so if you put in a big trade getting hit will hurt. However here once you enter low, and you see the trend go in your way, now each trade is no longer 50/50 but 70/30 now besides even if you get hit by your 4 entry, the other 3 on top are already in profit so this 4 trade was really a no risk trade. Trick is not just to come up with the perfect setup, but also the perfect risk management setup. Just to constantly trade 50/50 will make you at most break even.

You see on the pound now though i shorted, it tried already a couple of fake breakouts, had i been trading a couple of contract i would have been stopped out like 6 times already, since my stops would have been very tight. Now luckily i didnt fall for the false breakouts, since the pound looks weak, and best to stay on the short side

Edited October 9, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Osama + 248]

23 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

@Osama Did you get out of your short?  Or are you waiting/hoping/praying for more more more?  (That's what I'm doing since I need it to go back up to 74.50-75 to break even on my long.  LOL!  Hmmm......)  🙃

I am waiting for EIA's report tomorrow....I will take a position then. I guess I will have to bear loss...the only question is how much?

Your breakeven was reached multiple times!!

 

I was just going to call for a discussion in my thread...

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

The entry for WTI is short under 73

 

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

5 minutes ago, Osama said:

I am waiting for EIA's report tomorrow....I will take a position then. I guess I will have to bear loss...the only question is how much?

Your breakeven was reached multiple times!!

 

I was just going to call for a discussion in my thread...

Yes, and now I want more more more.  Ha-ha!  Seriously though, the contract is good up to $4 more, so I'm going to hang with it until, well, you know, whatever happens to counter the Iranian Sanctions!

I should clarify: my long position ETF is an Ultra Long x2 ETF, so a rise in prices of about $2 should be enough to get to the limit of return under this options contract.

Edited October 9, 2018 by Dan Warnick

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Unfortunately these moves have lots of fakes, and then fakes that become the move. Basically once you see a fake, that doesnt stay a fake, that means most got stopped out, and they indeed are breaking it out. Just go with them with the breakout for as long as they take it. Hardest trade to do, but that is one of the best trades out there short term. Since once they break it out, there is no reason to break it down, since there are no stops to be taken out, so they intention was to take it higher to the next aggregate of stops which is at the next aggregate.

Edited October 9, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[ATK + 355]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Catch all you need to do is read your charts better and it will become much clearer to you.

LOLOLOLOLOL this is literally hilarious coming from you!

JJ I give you such a hard time because regardless of the fact that you have not proven yourself to be reliable in terms of your crude observations (read the title of this thread), you still insist to be an outright expert and give those who have actually proven themselves as compitent "advice".

JJ how about you actually post a graph like catch does 

Edited October 9, 2018 by ATK

[Rodent + 1,424]

19 minutes ago, ATK said:

LOLOLOLOLOL this is literally hilarious coming from you!

JJ I give you such a hard time because regardless of the fact that you have not proven yourself to be reliable in terms of your crude observations (read the title of this thread), you still insist to be an outright expert and give those who have actually proven themselves as compitent "advice".

JJ how about you actually post a graph like catch does 

Warning. This site monitored daily for signs of haranguing.

That is all. Carry on and play nice.

[NAPHTA + 33]

I am a relatively newcomer here, I would like to have a more focused thread in which both WTI and Brent chart can be discussed/analysed. There are people such as Catch22 and Future Oil who seem to have solid and interesting point of views. Another members as well, both concerning fundamentals and TA. Can someone with more "reputation" start such a thread? No sensational prediction in the title plz, just focus on price action and trends.

[Auson + 123]

In terms of Brent its looking like it wants to stay above $80, which is pretty darn bullish I say so wouldn't be at all surprised to see a trip to the $90s

Any outages or more military 'drills' by Iran in the Straits of Hormuz could see the $100 per barrel reached.

[ATK + 355]

I have both calls and puts so bulls and bears I'm ready.

Hoping we can hurry up and destroy the global economy with $100 a barrel of oil so I can make a couple grand off my calls.

We may have a global recession, but at leaSt I'm making money!

[Auson + 123]

ATK,

Not sure if serious.

I don't think Brent will stay at $100 for long and a market correction is due anyway which could reset the price averting a world recession for now.

[ATK + 355]

2 minutes ago, Auson said:

ATK,

Not sure if serious.

I don't think Brent will stay at $100 for long and a market correction is due anyway which could reset the price averting a world recession for now.

I'm half joking, I do have calls right now just because this market doesn't know what it wants.

I totally agree, $100 of oil is not sustainable, but because hedge funds want it to happen it will likely happen

12 hours ago, catch22 said:

 

[Auson + 123]

2 minutes ago, ATK said:

I'm half joking, I do have calls right now just because this market doesn't know what it wants.

I totally agree, $100 of oil is not sustainable, but because hedge funds want it to happen it will likely happen

In that case you must be one of those disaster capitalists ( or at least half of you is ) 

What Brent price do you think is sustainable at the moment ?

[ATK + 355]

Lololololol think the mods removed my other post. Didn't know we lived in Venezuela! Sorry comrades !

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Like i said it is obvious they wil get enough news out to bring the prices up way above 80, but first what comes up must come down.

[catch22 + 244]

10 hours ago, Dan Warnick said:

You discussed in your latest comments about how this is probably going to prove, in the short term at least, to be a sideways market until a breakout develops one way or the other, with a bias towards higher prices (if I understood correctly).  Would you agree that based on the intra-day trends over the last few weeks, that we should probably expect a spike upwards of ~0.50 to 1.00 dollars in the first couple of hours of trading in the U.S. today?

No i think you may have missed some important details... please note that i said in the short term, i think there is no trade to be had.

In the short term, i think, its 50/50 casino bet.

The main levels we need to break are the previous high from last week or the recent low from yesterday- this is our range and theres no telling what it will do within this range for now. IMHO i think it will likely range about the WPP shown in my previous chart until there is some market moving geopolitical or fundamental news/data on the table.

To successfully trade the markets you need to have a bunch of indicators on the table to increase your chances beyond 50/50. Some technical setups are statistically proven to have as much as 85% probability. Therefore if you only bet on those setups - in the long term you will win more than you loose. IF you simply trade whatever on a feeling and effectively taking 50/50 bets or worse (15% if you inadvertantly trade against an 85% proability setup for example) - you will loose more than you win... So an important part of being a successful trader is knowing alot about the probabilities your about to dive into... this only comes with knowledge, information, and experience, and theres a hell of alot to know!

[catch22 + 244]

6 hours ago, NAPHTA said:

I am a relatively newcomer here, I would like to have a more focused thread in which both WTI and Brent chart can be discussed/analysed. There are people such as Catch22 and Future Oil who seem to have solid and interesting point of views. Another members as well, both concerning fundamentals and TA. Can someone with more "reputation" start such a thread? No sensational prediction in the title plz, just focus on price action and trends.

Sounds like a great idea... we can leave the guess work JJ over here

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

12 minutes ago, catch22 said:

No i think you may have missed some important details... please note that i said in the short term, i think there is no trade to be had.

In the short term, i think, its 50/50 casino bet.

The main levels we need to break are the previous high from last week or the recent low from yesterday- this is our range and theres no telling what it will do within this range for now. IMHO i think it will likely range about the WPP shown in my previous chart until there is some market moving geopolitical or fundamental news/data on the table.

To successfully trade the markets you need to have a bunch of indicators on the table to increase your chances beyond 50/50. Some technical setups are statistically proven to have as much as 85% probability. Therefore if you only bet on those setups - in the long term you will win more than you loose. IF you simply trade whatever on a feeling and effectively taking 50/50 bets or worse (15% if you inadvertantly trade against an 85% proability setup for example) - you will loose more than you win... So an important part of being a successful trader is knowing alot about the probabilities your about to dive into... this only comes with knowledge, information, and experience, and theres a hell of alot to know!

Yes, I got all of that too.  But you did say that in the last few weeks there seems to be a spike about and hour or two into the trading day and that one should wait to see what develops after that before making any decisions about a day trade, right?  If I am remembering something someone else said, I apologize, I just think/thought it was you.

[catch22 + 244]

yes indeed watch the spikes - but it also sometimes whipsaws if you look at the chart history. So unless you know which its going to be - how can you trade it?

So again its difficult to trade because you dont know which way it will go - spike or whipsaw. So If you see a rapid movement down and then trade down - it can whip back up and leave you deep in the red... same goes the other way of course...  and lastly if you see it going down and trade opposite - it can simply keep going down and not whipsaw! so really im not convinced its tradable with a high probability - otherwise id be doing it

What i am considering trading intraday on oil - is the quiet session times that have less volatility. Some of these times are showing reasonable respect for classical patterns - such as the flag break out pattern for example - and may yeild a high enough probability to successfully trade them.

 

Edited October 9, 2018 by catch22

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

4 minutes ago, catch22 said:

yes indeed watch the spikes - but it also sometimes whipsaws if you look at the chart history. So unless you know which its going to be - how can you trade it?

So again its difficult to trade because you dont know which way it will go - spike or whipsaw. So If you see a rapid movement down and then trade down - it can whip back up and leave you deep in the red... same goes the other way of course...  and lastly if you see it going down and trade opposite - it can simply keep going down and not whipsaw! so really im not convinced its tradable with a high probability - otherwise id be doing it

What i am considering trading intraday on oil - is the quiet session times that have less volatility. Some of these times are showing reasonable respect for classical patterns - such as the flag break out pattern for example - and may yeild a high enough probability to successfully trade them.

 

Good points to remember.  Thanks.

[NAPHTA + 33]

2 hours ago, catch22 said:

Sounds like a great idea... we can leave the guess work JJ over here

Thanks, hope some "veterans" will start it. In order to make it manageable I think it is good to frame the thread with a time limit like October-Oil and then start over again for November a new thread (just an idea). I'm on Brent and the majority trading WTI, as far as I can see.  But price actions are quite similar most of the times. News are also the same. So it should work. 

[NAPHTA + 33]

Below a very primitive and hasty drawing on an hourly chart, just to know your opinion. As I see it, this is a relatively clear break-out attempt from the down move pattern that started on the Oct 3. 

What do you think?

the yellow line is the wpp and yesterday it was up and down around that axis.

 

[catch22 + 244]

i dont think you should draw the upward sloping line on the tops of the candles whilst the price is rising - it should run along the bottoms as support for the upward trend.

The opposite applies for a decending price action - rule your line across the tops for a resistance line which respects the downward trend.

Think of it as lines representing supporting pressure on the market in a rising price action - or lines representing resistance pressure for a descending price action... stands to reason no? This way if those lines are broken - you get an indicattion that the (buying or selling) pressure has changed/reduced/flipped to the other side.

Either way i think there are diminishing benefits to ruling trend lines as the chart time frames become smaller and also when there is little history to rule the lines from.

Last week we had a clear trend and history to support it. This week - so far - we dont see any clear trends just yet - all i see is a ranging market which is looking for direction (news or data). As soon as the next headline comes out about Iran or similar - the market will grab hold of it and run with it. You will likely see this on the chart as rapid price action which breaks one of the key levels shown on my previous charts. Until then - price is happy where it is - sitting bang on the WPP. - See how accurate the WPP fibo levels can be! The WPP is based from last weeks price range - it had nothing to do with this weeks prices - yet see how it respects this level like it was meant to be there. Support was also found at the S38 level drawn on my chart - also respected. I further suspect that it will be sold into at R38 if it should try to break up there without some other news event to support it.

Edited October 10, 2018 by catch22

[catch22 + 244]

Just to give clarity to my above post... normally i wouldnt rule some of the lines where i have - however there may be a descending channel forming which is why ive drawn it there - again i wouldnt give much weight to this just yet as its only early days and showing on the 1H chart... give the descending channel more weight if it continues to respect it over the next few days... It is printing lower highs and lower lows tho - something for the bulls to be careful of but again - not enough time to tell. IF is was to descend down the the lower channel line and then bounce up again - now the channel would have sufficient history to be well considered... On the flip side - it could easily pop that upper line later today and invalidate the channel...