Re: Surging American Exports Keep Oil and Gas Prices in Check

[Jeffrey Brown + 207]

While it's certainly true that on a total liquids basis the US is a net exporter, because of biofuels production and refinery gains, the fact remains that based on the most recent EIA data (weekly supply estimates, four-week running average), the US is a net crude oil importer, with US refineries dependent on net crude oil imports of 2.3 million bpd.  To put this in perspective, it's about 50% larger than the peak crude oil production rate from Prudhoe Bay, the largest conventional oil field ever found in the US. 

Meanwhile, Hart Energy puts the US oil production decline rate at 34%/year. In the following article, they estimate that we need to replace 100% of current US oil production every three years, just to maintain current production: "Why US Shale Production Declines Are Higher Than You Might Think."  

In other words, Hart Energy estimates that US producers need to put on line the productive equivalent of the peak production from Prudhoe Bay about every seven weeks, just to offset declines from existing production.