Trans Mountain Pipeline about to finish

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,194]

I think: Irena missed the mark here actually:  I think the takeaway is not that USA refiners will pay more, as who can actually REFINE the heavy goop?  No one other than--> USA/JAPAN.   Or more precisely, to MOVE that heavy goop to west coast requires Canada to IMPORT lots and lots of light sweet crude out of North Dakota to Alberta diluting the heavy goop going west... And then this still begs the question: WHO will buy this other than USA west coast refineries?  Maybe Japan?  So, California oil prices will drop is the end result maybe?  Japans oil prices will drop?

What this actually means is Canadian tar sands producers can now produce a bit more and sell a bit more to the USA and maybe Japan. Total output will go up, prices will stay the same as what this actually means is less oil out of the middle east to East Asia and USA W. Coast DROPPING global oil prices slightly. 

U.S. Refiners Should Brace for Trans Mountain Pipeline Launch

By Irina Slav - Feb 01, 2024, 6:00 PM CST

• Following the news that Trans Mountain Corporation will start filling the expanded pipeline in February, with first crude to be loaded from Vancouver in April, Canadian crude prices jumped to the narrowest discount to WTI since August 2023.
• U.S. refiners used to cheap Canadian crude will need to start budgeting more for the commodity from this spring.
• Canadian oil producers are preparing for the 890,000 bpd in takeaway capacity growth.

[notsonice + 1,266]

and the cost per barrel????

when you look at the capital cost and amortize on a per barrel transported basis for the next 20 years......

30.9 Billion dollars for the pipeline to date plus who know how much on both ends ...well Canadian dollars

so 22 Billion US  and then tack on the interest so in 20 years

40  US billion 

for an extra 590,000 Barrels a day or

215 Million barrels a year

or

4.3 billion barrels max over 20 years with never a shutdown or less than max

so call it a 3 Billion barrels in 20 years......

 

then you got to dilute the stuff...dilbit . a per barrel of bitumen production about 0.39 barrels of condensate are required.

maybe real crude transported 2.5 billion barrels in 20 years

the capital cost alone is close to $16 a barrel transported

then add on the cost of running the sucker

ya have to get the dilbit to the head of the line

and energy to pump it and people and maintenance and repairs and payments to the Nations impacted

 

and the crude is nowhere near a refinery

 

and  you hope no spills....Pipelines over the Rockies...anyone want to bet at least one major spill in 2o years with a cleanup in the Billions?????

 

total all in to move it on Transmountain from the tar sands refinery in Alberta to Refinery

$20 a barrel maybe $25

 

they should have stuck to rail transport.....100 car train load is 70,000 barrels or 9 unit trains a day....

Unit trains cost about $15 a barrel from Calgary to the Gulf coast all in cost  no dilbit required and this is delivered barrels

 

oh boy

what a pig of a project

Now we are really talking about GOV SUBSIDIES to get that crappy crude to a port or refinery

Kinder Morgan was smart when they unloaded the pig onto the backs of the Canadian taxpayers

 

and when will the first barrel make it to a refinery out of the new pig??????

 

Edited February 8 by notsonice

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,194]

Supposedly this spring(I would not bet on it opening this spring)

A claimed $23B capex + operations for a hoped for ~increase of 750,000barrels/day.  Wanna bet it hits $30B USD and Canadian government just makes it "disappear" and never charges a penny to transport the oil?   Hrmm, wonder what NAFTA(whatever new version is called) says about such subsidies.... NAFTA 3 upcoming?

Canadian Goop so thick it makes Venezuelan crude look great. {Has anyone seen a new picture of the sulfur mountain from this stuff? I haven't and I looked just curious}

Hrmm: Ven isn't exactly able to sell their goop without importing ~15%? Light sweet to dilute it and even then almost no one takes it.  So, even if Canadian goop available to East Asia: Who is going to buy it?  The Anacortes refinery in Washington I believe cannot refine the goop so the Canadians can then import their export via gasoline/diesel.  All I see is that Bakken producers are gonna love this new pipeline and everyone else is by and large unchanged. 

[notsonice + 1,266]

trans mountain is just an expansion ....it was 300,000 BPD now to be 890,000

easier to rail the goop as u call it to refineries............

you are right who wants supertankers of GOOP.............Citco refineries in the US were built solely to process Heavy Ven Crude.............Maybe China will take some....as the US/world is already maxed out on existing Tar Sands production ...almost all of it flowing to US refineries that can handle it. Keystone XL was in the same boat  a pipeline to be built to get goop outside of Canada with no dedicated refinery taking the output...Keystone  XL would have brought GOOP to the gulf and then on to who knows where.

 

With Ven Crude now coming back onto the market slowly , the US breaking records and now an overall exporter and Guyana Oil output plus now Argentina the Americas have way too much crude supply

Trans mountain expansion GOOP is not going to fetch much more that GOOP sells today

 

You can bet this will be the last big pipeline to be ever built in North America.......

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,194]

Hrmm, just looked up BC oil needs. If one goes by the math ~roughly 1/2 of the new pipe will only be used by western Canada's needs so they stop importing refined products... Of course BC does not allow oil refineries... So more than likely this means Washington state will be absorbing 1/2 of the oil and then transhipping it back to BC as they are already doing. Likewise a quick glance at California shows they import ~300,000 a day which would account for the other half of the oil needs with the rest potentially going to Western Mexico/Panama region displacing middle eastern oil. Or another way of saying, once in a blue moon, Canada can pretend to export western oil to another country not named the USA as it is currently doing....  Sending its oil from Alberta to Refineries in Washington state and then EXPORTED BACK to Vancouver etc... << Palm in face >> Welcome to BC...

[Ron Wagner + 714]

22 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

I think: Irena missed the mark here actually:  I think the takeaway is not that USA refiners will pay more, as who can actually REFINE the heavy goop?  No one other than--> USA/JAPAN.   Or more precisely, to MOVE that heavy goop to west coast requires Canada to IMPORT lots and lots of light sweet crude out of North Dakota to Alberta diluting the heavy goop going west... And then this still begs the question: WHO will buy this other than USA west coast refineries?  Maybe Japan?  So, California oil prices will drop is the end result maybe?  Japans oil prices will drop?

What this actually means is Canadian tar sands producers can now produce a bit more and sell a bit more to the USA and maybe Japan. Total output will go up, prices will stay the same as what this actually means is less oil out of the middle east to East Asia and USA W. Coast DROPPING global oil prices slightly. 

U.S. Refiners Should Brace for Trans Mountain Pipeline Launch

By Irina Slav - Feb 01, 2024, 6:00 PM CST

• Following the news that Trans Mountain Corporation will start filling the expanded pipeline in February, with first crude to be loaded from Vancouver in April, Canadian crude prices jumped to the narrowest discount to WTI since August 2023.
• U.S. refiners used to cheap Canadian crude will need to start budgeting more for the commodity from this spring.
• Canadian oil producers are preparing for the 890,000 bpd in takeaway capacity growth.

The West Coast may benefit greatly but I doubt that the end consumer will benefit much from lower prices.